odd memphis/loisville total movement early sundays evening

[jaffers]

anyone else notice this game dropping ten points in 2 minutes at pinnacle when it came out? why do you think that happened? never saw a lline move that much that quick. here it is



<TABLE borderColor=#333333 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-10-31
17:39:38</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -13.5
-110/100</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o59.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-10-31
17:39:05</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -10.5
-119/109</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o59.0
106/-116</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-10-31
17:38:32</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -10.5
-115/105</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o59.0
106/-116</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-10-31
17:37:58</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -10.5
-113/103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o69.0
112/-122</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-10-31
17:36:53</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -10.5
-113/103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o69.0
101/-111</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-10-31
17:36:19</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> -10.5
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o69.0
-105/-105</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Brock Landers]

The fact that it was an even 10 point move makes me think they listed it incorrectly at 59 when they meant 69..

 

[oldmanTED]

Jaffers:

For future reference, you will note that Pinnacle posts its opening line around 5:30 p.m. EST while Olympic, Cris, and many others post opening lines approximately 7:30 p.m. EST.

Pinnacle's opening line is often times quite different from the others and at times can mislead the viewer. For comparison sometime, check the opening lines currently shown at Don Best or G & J and you will be able to note many differences.

In this particular instance, not surprised to see a post of 69 hammered down to be closer in line with the openers of other books.

 

[jaffers]

interesting ted. i will check that out this sunday evening. the thing i also think though is that Pinnacle must've took money on this game at 69 because they moved the money line twice in two minutes before the big switch to 59...this game moved 32 times in two hours sunday night. so what you are sayng though is that they saw the lines at a different book two miutes after putting this game out and changed it that much? why wouldn't they just wait two minutes and look and see what those other two had it at? or is it possible someone at pinnacle gets fired for setting this line at 69 to start with?

 

[oldmanTED]

Jaffers:

You misunderstood my reply a bit. Pinnacle posts its opening lines around 5:30 p.m. EST while the other books tend to post their lines 2 hours later around 7:30 p.m. EST.

You can wait for this coming Sunday or you can go to the Don Best site now and will see the opening line as shown for this week. On this game, it was 62.5 while the side was 11.5. Most of the books use the lines from Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) via a variety of means.

Pinnacle long ago decided to post their own line as shown in this game as 10.5 and 69. Many, many times it differs from the opening line of the other books. The reason, in my opinion that the line moved, is because both the side and total were off and thus got hit early. Not uncommon at Pinnacle.

Far be it for me to question Pinnacles bookmaking methods, but I have always found their practice of posting their own line early to be more of a gamble then they necessarily need to take. That being said, clearly their volume has worked for them. By the way, their lines tend to move more often then most books as well. This may be due to volume and size of wagers as well.

 

[FatClemenza]

Just a thought...

The book anticipated mucho action on the over... Posted it high... then pushed it low to sucker in under line movement action....

 

[jaffers]

i agree with you and i also believe pinnacle is a very smart book.
do you have any opinion on tonight's game?

i'm going with the over tonight, small, here's my reasoning...


Injuries
Louisville Injuries
Player Pos Injury Status
Renardo Foster OL Knee out for season

Memphis Injuries
Player Pos Injury Status
Tristan Thomas DB Concussion Ques Thurs
Scott Vogel S Knee Ques Thurs
Cato Mott LB Ankle Mid Nov
Michael Spurlock LB Leg out for season


On whether the loss to Memphis last year will help make the players be more focused this year:
"I think so. I think our players will be ready to go. Physically, they are taking care of
themselves and getting better. They've been in studying the video and they're excited about
it. They know it's big game. Going into the season, we looked at this as being one of the
big games of the year, and we certainly didn't like the way we played a year ago."
Memhis pass defense is horrible
att comp I's yds TD
UAB HACKN 31 21 1 398 3
CIN gUIDU 18 13 0 182 3
houstn KOLB 27 18 0 220 1
arkansas st.noce 40 29 3 418 4
are you kidding me!!! a cat from arkansas st. can put up 418 and four td's
against these guys get real. this game is tough tonight

louisville
+ = home * = night
SCHEDULE AND RESULTS 5-1-0 W-1
Conference USA Record: 3-0-0
09/05/04 + Kentucky 28 0
09/11/04 Army 52 21
09/25/04 North Carolina 34 0
10/02/04 + East Caro. 59 7
10/14/04 * Miami (Fla.) 38 41
10/22/04 +* South Fla. 41 9
memphis
SCHEDULE AND RESULTS 5-2-0 L-1
Conference USA Record: 2-2-0
09/04/04 * Mississippi 20 13
09/11/04 +* Chattanooga 52 21
09/18/04 * Arkansas St. 47 35
09/25/04 * UAB 28 35
10/02/04 + Houston 41 14
10/16/04 + Tulane 49 24
10/23/04 * Cincinnati 10 49

Memphis, TN (38104)
as reported at Memphis, TN. November 4 04:53 PM CST


55°F

Cloudy Feels Like: 55°F

UV Index: 0 Low

Wind: From the Northwest at 9 mph

Dew Point: 44°F

Humidity: 67%

Visibility: 10.0 miles

Pressure: 30.16 inches and rising

looks like a pretty nice night light wind shouldn't hamper leflours or wimprine.
and i don't beleive that memphis has the d-backs to keep up with these reicievers...
i realize last year joe lee dunn looked like a genuis in this game but this is not last year's
memphis defense.

i like the over and a final of memphis 24 louisville 45

with this for stats Passing: Stefan LeFors, 18-25, 282 yds, 3 TD
Eric Shelton, 13-86, 2 TD.
Michael Bush, 12-75, 1 td

 

[oldmanTED]

Jaffers:

I posted the Over a few minutes ago. No opinion on the side.

 

[jaffers]

Ted do you know any of pinnacle's history? i've heard that they are owned by a football research firm? this true?

 

[oldmanTED]

jaffers:

Can't say that I do. The only thing that has ever concerned me about Pinnacle is that they are located in Curacao. Curacao's government overview of offshore books is very laxed. Two other books that are or were located in Curacao that have struggled or failed are Royal (struggled) and SportsMarket/Acesgold (failed). I'm sure many of our fellow posters know of others. I won't pretend to be an expert on all offshore books, but I have done my share of homework following being caught in a failure and one thing that is apparent is that certain countries and their governments are much more involved with the industry then others. Should you have questions about books, would highly recommend starting a new thread in the Offshore Forum and you should receive some pretty good responses. The Shrink, General, Fishead, Wil, Dante, and all the mods have good experience with the books and can help as well as many of our fellow posters. Don't be shy to ask any question. The only stupid question is the one not asked.

 

[jaffers]

looks like pinnacle's first number of 69 is even too low holy jesus man 35-33 with 1:19 left in the half....sweet cover