october 10 BEST

[hansenbros.]

minnesota -4
forget the "no rb's" this week, forget "their off line is banged up", forget that hovan might not play (hopefully he won't), this line is just plain OFF. the line has been overadjusted against the vikes for the aforementioned, and underadjusted towards the texans because they have won two straight at the expense of once good (oak, kc) now totally discombobulated teams. sheer talent exposure here, close 1st half on adrenaline alone, perhaps, but vkies pull away win by 10.

5 units

ytd: 10-5 +20 1/2units

MY BEST

gl

 

[dolphin]

I certainly respect the general flow of your picks and results, but this selection is surprising to say the least.

If this match-up had occurred in Week 1, I think the line would have been MINN -5. Since then the Vikings have lost 3-4 starters on defense, a RT, Kliensasser, his backup, and a probably using their 4th RB as a starter. Additionally, Coach Tice appears outmatched nearly every week.

The Texans, on the other hand, shot themselves in the foot repeatedly for two weeks, got lucky but gained confidence in win over the Chiefs, and followed-through with a decent win over the Raiders. Raiders may have been a little flat and Collins a bit off, but Dunta Robinson clearly erased the impression he created in the opener v. SD.

IMO, the Texans might be as good as thought pre-Week 1 (although perhaps 1/1.5 pts. better), while the Vikings could be up to 7 points worse.

Additionally, the Vikings are notoriously poor out of domes esp. if you subtract games v. GB. 0-7 lately away v. AFC...MINUS 86 points.

Capers is going to use a cover-2 scheme for the most part, challenging the Vikings to 10+ play drives. I can see MINN scoring in the 20-24 range, but with their defense I can't see the Texans putting up less than 21 and quite conceivably 30+.

I could easily imagine a good 'capper passing here for some reason, but the fact that you see the Vikings winning by an average of 7+...well, I don't understand...I'll leave it at that.

If Carr were NOT able to go, I would downgrade my play on HOU from a double-large to just a large. Banks is plenty serviceable.

 

[dolphin]

Additional note...

Texans have only failed to cover once as a franchise when scoring 21+ points.

I checked for the big offense/poor defense teams of note spanning a few years. Lately, when these teams have yielded 21+ on the road, they have had these results compared with a 4 point line:

INDY 2-11
KC 1-21
STL 1-12
MIN 0-11 (adjusted for no dome or GB games)

Even the Rams from 1999-2001 (three best years) only showed 6-7

If you said Houston is 65% to score 21+, that would place their ATS prospects at 60%. The point at which MINN could be considered is when you think the Texans chances of 21+ is about 50%.

Just one more method of analysis. No single approach is ever conclusive by itself, however I can't find one which plausibly comes up with the Vikings here.

 

[VaRookie]

Dolphin-very good points, thanks for all the info on this one!

 

[MickyD]

Hansons record speaks for itself

Hanson
your record is all the acclaim you need. I am with you on Minny. Clear case of a more talented offense. Should ring up 35 on Sunday.

What do you think of Gophers chances Sat am? If they just believe in themselves they might get it done.

Good Luck Hanson always look forward to your picks. Off I go to Twins Yankees game 3. The dome will be rocking.

 

[ChadC]

I certainly respect the general flow of your picks and results, but this selection is surprising to say the least.

If this match-up had occurred in Week 1, I think the line would have been MINN -5. Since then the Vikings have lost 3-4 starters on defense, a RT, Kliensasser, his backup, and a probably using their 4th RB as a starter. Additionally, Coach Tice appears outmatched nearly every week.

The Texans, on the other hand, shot themselves in the foot repeatedly for two weeks, got lucky but gained confidence in win over the Chiefs, and followed-through with a decent win over the Raiders. Raiders may have been a little flat and Collins a bit off, but Dunta Robinson clearly erased the impression he created in the opener v. SD.

IMO, the Texans might be as good as thought pre-Week 1 (although perhaps 1/1.5 pts. better), while the Vikings could be up to 7 points worse.

Additionally, the Vikings are notoriously poor out of domes esp. if you subtract games v. GB. 0-7 lately away v. AFC...MINUS 86 points.

Capers is going to use a cover-2 scheme for the most part, challenging the Vikings to 10+ play drives. I can see MINN scoring in the 20-24 range, but with their defense I can't see the Texans putting up less than 21 and quite conceivably 30+.

I could easily imagine a good 'capper passing here for some reason, but the fact that you see the Vikings winning by an average of 7+...well, I don't understand...I'll leave it at that.

If Carr were NOT able to go, I would downgrade my play on HOU from a double-large to just a large. Banks is plenty serviceable.

Come on man, those Robinson picks were gimmies. He's going to have his hands full this week....

 

[dolphin]

That's a pretty token counterpoint. One of the picks resembled Ty Law, while the other was routine.

How about the several other points and trends?

As to the other poster...

Since when does "too much offense" get the money with any regularity when the team is also fielding a bottom-of-the-barrel defense (even if you count Winfield) and is playing on the road v. a very competent team AND laying more than a FG?

 

[CedarCreaker]

FWIW, think Hansen (the "Fence Builder")knows his Minny teams (both college...where they play for pay and pro..where they just play) as well as anyone and he picks against them as much as for them....think following his info on the Vikes might be good advice...but regardless....GL to all

 

[ChadC]

I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot stick. I am just saying that Robinson is not a good corner yet, just a fortunate one.... Houston's defense is marginal at best and Culpepper and company should light them up no matter who the RB is. The question is will their defense step up to the plate and pitch in for once. One good sign for Viqueen fans is that the most overrated defensive tackle in the league (Chrissy Hovan) finally got benched.

 

[SmokeyWins]

I WOULD RIDE HANSON HERE OR JUST NOT PLAY THE GAME......


THIS MAN KNOWS HIS TEAM WITH THE ARTIC BLAST WEATHER......

STAY WARM HANSON... WINTER IS ON THE WAY!!:heh:

 

[hansenbros.]

dolphin

you bring up valid points, and i think the lines are very sharp this week:neenee: so, buyer beware! i'm not in love here, but it's one of those keep it simple deals -- throw out all the stats -- flat out the vikings out talent these guys by a wide margin -- and the line does not account for that -- i think the betting public has been swayed by recent results, rather than tangible facts. that's just the way i see it -- could be wrong -- have been 5 times this year! hopefully, not tis week.

gl

 

[hansenbros.]

mickey

i'm on the gophers -- but having a hard time discerning if i'm with my heart or if it's a sound investment. mich lives and dies with their rush def -- whant if their rush def dies today???? my view on this is gophers by 9. done. possible over here as well????

gl

 

[hansenbros.]

chad

you might be right???? who's robinson????

gl

 

[hansenbros.]

cedar, smokey

thank you:awesom:


gl

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Good luck Hansen. Which Minn. team is showing up here? On the surface I couldn't see laying more than 3 with Minn. on the road. They do have struggles on the road. But as you say, talent would get them there.

 

[dolphin]

Last comment on MIN/HOU...

That huge talent edge.

If Carr subbed for Culpepper, I'd subtract 2 points.
If A.Johnson subbed for Moss, I'd subtract 1 point.
If Glenn subbed for Winfield, I'd probably subtract nothing.
If the teams traded their current O-lines, I'd say Minny has a half-point edge, maybe.

Everywhere else, the teams seem to be even OR Houston has an edge in THIS particular game. I'd give Capers 1.5 points per game over Tice.

I have a Minnesota specialist myself...actually don't have any others, strangely enough. He has the Texans on number-crunching and his own local perceptions.

GL to all...

 

[MGMan]

Hans,

Like you're with me today in baseball, I'm with you tomorrow. Only one play? Any opinion on At/Det. I have Favre and Harrington as my fantasy qb's and want some opinions here. In addition to fantasy thoughts, who covers?

Runners on 1 n 3 for the Dodgers in the 3rd. Come on LA.

MG

 

[HelmetHead]

As you can see, I'm new tothis forum and have enjoyed reading many of the posts. From the other posts I have read by Hansen, I have to say that I like his write-ups and knowledge.

Buuuuuuuut I have to go with the Texans here +4.

The Texans will surprise the Vikes as well as many bettors.

Good luck to everyone. Keep up the good posts.

HH k:

 

[dolphin]

The Texans may surprise some bettors, but I hardly think they will surprise the Vikings. They know their team and they can watch the HOU game films.

Good luck back atcha, Helmet Head!

 

[hansenbros.]

mg

like minds -- those are exactly my two qb's!!!!! it's hard to pass up favre on monday nite!! tenn def has been rather soft this year so far.


gl