Jack of Hearts was kind enough to provide a breakdown of Bucs baseball record in great detail in Buc's Tuesday thread. I noticed a couple things looking at it that I wanted to share. This is not a shot a Bucs, so please no one take it as such. Having a detailed breakdown of a winning player is a valuable resource, and one should look to learn from it.
Here's the first point of interest.
48% Plays -150/-159 13 14 -900
63% Plays -160/-169 5 3 182
100% Plays -170/-179 3 0 500
50% Plays -180/-189 1 1 11
0% Plays -190/-199 0 2 -782
Here lies the problem area for many baseball bettors. Much has been written and read about high favs. Even with as awsome a season as Bucs is having, which is as good as any I've ever seen, when you get to those -150 or higher favs you get a negative. (I know that my own plays and winning % did a lot better once I cut those out.)
Again, not a shot or even a suggestion to Bucs as to how to play, please just keep doing just exactly what you are doing. Just wanted to make the observations since having access to this type of record breakdown of a winning player in baseball can add a great deal of knowledge if you look at it closely.
Also notice that the bulk of the profits so far come from this area...
49% Plays +130/+139 25 26 1193
55% Plays +120/+129 23 19 1173
41% Plays +110/+119 26 37 -927
58% Plays +100/+109 52 38 3296
60% Plays -101/-109 34 23 2466
54% Plays -110/-119 36 31 -72
58% Plays -120/-129 36 26 979
67% Plays -130/-139 39 19 2206
IMHO, This really helps to drive home 2 rules of betting baseball. First, that high favorites are generally a bad idea (unless you're REALLY sure about the play), and second that small dogs, small favs, and close to even money plays really should make up the bulk of one's baseball action (again, in my own opinion).
Comments welcome.
Here's the first point of interest.
48% Plays -150/-159 13 14 -900
63% Plays -160/-169 5 3 182
100% Plays -170/-179 3 0 500
50% Plays -180/-189 1 1 11
0% Plays -190/-199 0 2 -782
Here lies the problem area for many baseball bettors. Much has been written and read about high favs. Even with as awsome a season as Bucs is having, which is as good as any I've ever seen, when you get to those -150 or higher favs you get a negative. (I know that my own plays and winning % did a lot better once I cut those out.)
Again, not a shot or even a suggestion to Bucs as to how to play, please just keep doing just exactly what you are doing. Just wanted to make the observations since having access to this type of record breakdown of a winning player in baseball can add a great deal of knowledge if you look at it closely.
Also notice that the bulk of the profits so far come from this area...
49% Plays +130/+139 25 26 1193
55% Plays +120/+129 23 19 1173
41% Plays +110/+119 26 37 -927
58% Plays +100/+109 52 38 3296
60% Plays -101/-109 34 23 2466
54% Plays -110/-119 36 31 -72
58% Plays -120/-129 36 26 979
67% Plays -130/-139 39 19 2206
IMHO, This really helps to drive home 2 rules of betting baseball. First, that high favorites are generally a bad idea (unless you're REALLY sure about the play), and second that small dogs, small favs, and close to even money plays really should make up the bulk of one's baseball action (again, in my own opinion).
Comments welcome.