Obama up just two points

[Willie99]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day One

Posted: Monday, October 13, 2008
In contrast to other polls, which show Obama leading McCain by 4 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) to 11 (Newsweek), the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll debuts today with Obama up just 2 points with 13% (including 25% of independents) undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters.


http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=308790300872940

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Since everyone likes to post the other extreme, I'll post this one

 

[Willie99]

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[primetime21+]

Polling Data

<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/07 - 10/14</td><td>--</td><td>50.0</td><td>42.3</td><td class="spread">Obama +7.7</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen Tracking</td><td>10/12 - 10/14</td><td>3000 LV</td><td>50</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +5</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking</td><td>10/12 - 10/14</td><td>1210 LV</td><td>48</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Hotline/FD Tracking</td><td>10/12 - 10/14</td><td>823 LV</td><td>49</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">LA Times/Bloomberg</td><td>10/10 - 10/13</td><td>1030 LV</td><td>50</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +9</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">GW/Battleground Tracking</td><td>10/08 - 10/14</td><td>800 LV</td><td>51</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">CBS News/NY Times</td><td>10/10 - 10/13</td><td>699 LV</td><td>53</td><td>39</td><td class="spread">Obama +14</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Gallup Tracking (Traditional)*</td><td>10/11 - 10/13</td><td>2140 LV</td><td>51</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +6</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Gallup Tracking (Expanded)*</td><td>10/11 - 10/13</td><td>2289 LV</td><td>53</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +10</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">IBD/TIPP Tracking</td><td>10/07 - 10/13</td><td>825 LV</td><td>45</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">Obama +3</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">USA Today/Gallup (Traditional)*</td><td>10/10 - 10/12</td><td>761 LV</td><td>50</td><td>46</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">USA Today/Gallup (Expanded)*</td><td>10/10 - 10/12</td><td>1030 LV</td><td>52</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">ABC News/Wash Post</td><td>10/08 - 10/11</td><td>766 LV</td><td>53</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +10</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">FOX News</td><td>10/08 - 10/09</td><td>900 RV</td><td>46</td><td>39</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Newsweek</td><td>10/08 - 10/09</td><td>1035 RV</td><td>52</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +11</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[cussin'it]

ahoy matey, that long snapshot can be redacted to one line:

Party:

Indy/other.....BigO with a 2 pt lead....25% left undecided.

Thing is, of that 25% that decides it all, Dems will get about 14%, Pubs 11%

 

[Willie99]

ahoy matey, that long snapshot can be redacted to one line:

Party:

Indy/other.....BigO with a 2 pt lead....25% left undecided.

Thing is, of that 25% that decides it all, Dems will get about 14%, Pubs 11%

I think it comes down to this

Black 86 / 3

 

[cussin'it]

Actually in a close election it really may come down to this, AGAIN

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/69/2004ElectionControversyMap.jpg

:smoking:

 

[gtc08]

this has no credibility as a poll. has no weight on 538. stick with the standard, gallup.

 

[Willie99]

this has no credibility as a poll. has no weight on 538. stick with the standard, gallup.

So says gtc08

:nohead:

 

[cussin'it]

looking primarily at Ramussen and factored in the Fox dynamics poll....the lead is around 6 points.

 

[gtc08]

so says the pollster ratings. your poll isnt even listed kiddo.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster ratings

 

[gtc08]

of the major polls, surveyusa and rasmussen are the most accurate.

 

[D2bets]

This poll is poorly weighted. Has OBama up 2 pts with independents and up 2 pts overall. That tells me it has basically equal dem/repub weighting. Nobody believes that. Most target weighting is roughly 39Dem/33Repub. That accounts for the variance in this poll. McCain has to win "independents" substantially to be competitive.

 

[cincy_]

this has no credibility as a poll. has no weight on 538. stick with the standard, gallup.

Most polls have credibility ... but the MAJOR issue at this point is:

What % of the voters will be 18-44?

If you answer me that question, I can get you the election results (+/-3%) today.

Ann Selzer, for example, is predicting a HUGE turnout for that age group, and has Obama winning in a landslide ... other pollsters haven't done that and subsequently have a narrow Obama lead.

THAT, my friends, is the problem with the LIKELY VOTER model ... unless you can predict who is likely to vote, you can't predict kadooosh.

PS: Just asking someone on the phone if they're likely to vote doesn't help. Remember Kerry supporter Ben Affleck? In 2004, he was bashing Bush for weeks and the moron didn't even vote.

 

[festeringZit]

I said it weeks ago... Obama in a landslide.

And it will have tragic consequences for this once great country.

 

[gtc08]

zit, why does willie99 still think mccain has a chance.

 

[cussin'it]

Well, he does, technically. It's a longshot, but still possible.

 

[primetime21+]

I said it weeks ago... Obama in a landslide.

And it will have tragic consequences for this once great country.

Yeah during his term there will be:
1- terrorist attack on US soil
2- We go to war against a country that is supposed to have WMD...oops turns out they didn't.
3- the war drags on for so long that we fall into a huge deficit
4- gas prices explode
4- Relations with foreign nations deteriorates.
4- The economy tanks as the housing market plunges
5- Even major banking institutions crumble as the stock market crashes

Oh wait, that already happened under a republican president.

Imagine if all of the above happened during Obama's presidency.

 

[cincy_]

Yeah during his term there will be:
1- terrorist attack on US soil
2- We go to war against a country that is supposed to have WMD...oops turns out they didn't.
3- the war drags on for so long that we fall into a huge deficit
4- gas prices explode
4- Relations with foreign nations deteriorates.
4- The economy tanks as the housing market plunges
5- Even major banking institutions crumble as the stock market crashes

He'll nationalize banks too ...

That being said, the problem isn't Obama as much as it will be Relosi and Reid ... but as much as the GOP wants to raise that issue now, I didn't hear much complaining from them when Frist, Hastert and Bushie were in power.

The GOP fuckt this country for 6 years with one party rule ... now it looks like the Dems will ... but ANYTHING is better than Sarah Palin as President. THAT would be a travesty.

 

[cussin'it]

I said this from day one, and saying it again....Palin is a total joke on the country. Just take a read of Hitchen's latest column.

Hard to disagree with his assessment. If I was McCain, I'd announce a replacement in tonight's debate. Talk about a major bump move.

Why not, the ship is going down anyway.

 

[Mistermj]

so says the pollster ratings. your poll isnt even listed kiddo.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster ratings

Who rated five thirty eight as the high priest of polling? hno: