<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/VIdbYjmbFzo&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/VIdbYjmbFzo&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> Now hes down 20
Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election
Ohio: McCain Continues Upward Swing in Key State
Monday, September 08, 2008 Email to a Friend
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio, finds John McCain out in front of Barack Obama 51% to 44% (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
The latest numbers, which are the first to be released since the conclusion of both parties’ conventions, mark an improvement for the Republican nominee. In August, McCain had a slightly more modest advantage over the Democrat. In fact, the GOP hopeful has held a modest lead since July in the swing state that finally decided the 2004 election.
Ohio: McCain Continues Upward Swing in Key State
Monday, September 08, 2008 Email to a Friend
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio, finds John McCain out in front of Barack Obama 51% to 44% (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
The latest numbers, which are the first to be released since the conclusion of both parties’ conventions, mark an improvement for the Republican nominee. In August, McCain had a slightly more modest advantage over the Democrat. In fact, the GOP hopeful has held a modest lead since July in the swing state that finally decided the 2004 election.
<table class="PollingTable" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2">Ohio
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> Obama leads 52 - 42 percent among Ohio women, compared to 51 - 37 percent August 26. Men split 47 - 47 percent. Obama leads 64 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34, while voters 35 to 54 split with 48 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 back McCain 48 - 44 percent.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> Independent voters back McCain 47 - 43 percent, compared to a 42 - 38 percent Obama lead August 26, and 28 percent of former Clinton supporters now back McCain, compared to 23 percent last time.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> McCain gets a 53 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio, identical to Obama's 53 - 33 percent. Palin's favorability is 41 - 22 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent for Biden.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> For 52 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, while 11 percent cite health care; 10 percent say the war in Iraq; 9 percent list energy policy and 8 percent say terrorism.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> The choice of a running mate will have little impact on their vote, 61 percent of Ohio likely voters say.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> "Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama are getting the same level of party loyalty and the Republican is even winning slightly among independents. But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats - a legacy of the 2006 election and scandals involving former Gov. Robert Taft's administration," Brown said.</td></tr></tbody></table>
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> Obama leads 52 - 42 percent among Ohio women, compared to 51 - 37 percent August 26. Men split 47 - 47 percent. Obama leads 64 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34, while voters 35 to 54 split with 48 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 back McCain 48 - 44 percent.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> Independent voters back McCain 47 - 43 percent, compared to a 42 - 38 percent Obama lead August 26, and 28 percent of former Clinton supporters now back McCain, compared to 23 percent last time.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> McCain gets a 53 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio, identical to Obama's 53 - 33 percent. Palin's favorability is 41 - 22 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent for Biden.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> For 52 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, while 11 percent cite health care; 10 percent say the war in Iraq; 9 percent list energy policy and 8 percent say terrorism.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> The choice of a running mate will have little impact on their vote, 61 percent of Ohio likely voters say.
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> "Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama are getting the same level of party loyalty and the Republican is even winning slightly among independents. But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats - a legacy of the 2006 election and scandals involving former Gov. Robert Taft's administration," Brown said.</td></tr></tbody></table>
I think I read somewhere else that there are 900,000 more registered dems in Ohio now, a huge huge shift from just 4 years ago when Bush won by 120,000 votes, including getting 18% of the black vote.
That's why McCain KNOWS he has to get a ton of Hillary supporters. In the end I don't believe that he will and this poll shows Palin's impact is not that huge in Ohio.
That's why McCain KNOWS he has to get a ton of Hillary supporters. In the end I don't believe that he will and this poll shows Palin's impact is not that huge in Ohio.
The latest numbers also show that overall, McCain is trusted more than Obama by a 54% to 41% margin. In addition, the plurality of voters (42%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama as president. Just 25% say that about McCain. If voters were faced with the toughest decision of their lives, 54% say they would rather ask McCain for advice, while 38% would choose Obama.
Dueling polls. Gotta love it.
Bottom line is Ohio has had a pretty dramatic shift over the last decade, especially in the last few years, toward registered democrats. A pretty big obstacle for McCain to overcome. He absolutely must win independents by a large margin to have any chance. Either that or suppress the dem vote.
Bottom line is Ohio has had a pretty dramatic shift over the last decade, especially in the last few years, toward registered democrats. A pretty big obstacle for McCain to overcome. He absolutely must win independents by a large margin to have any chance. Either that or suppress the dem vote.
That long primary battled influenced registrations just a tad. I think we had a very similar trend in 1988, and it didn't help Dukakis much.
As for youth, I'll believe they'll be a factor when they become a factor.
As for youth, I'll believe they'll be a factor when they become a factor.
Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>09/05 - 09/10</td><td>--</td><td>47.8</td><td>46.0</td><td class="spread">McCain +1.8</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">InAdv/PollPosition</td><td>09/10 - 09/10</td><td>500 LV</td><td>48</td><td>47</td><td class="spread">McCain +1</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>09/07 - 09/09</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>48</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">McCain +4</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>09/05 - 09/09</td><td>1367 LV</td><td>44</td><td>49</td><td class="spread">Obama +5</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td>09/07 - 09/07</td><td>500 LV</td><td>51</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">McCain +7</td></tr></tbody></table>See All Ohio: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th> </th><th>McCain</th><th>Obama</th><th> </th></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Intrade Real Time Quotes</td><td><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=416549&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" width="35" frameborder="0" height="17"></iframe>
</td><td><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=416548&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" width="35" frameborder="0" height="17"></iframe>
</td><td class="spread">(See More Data</td></tr></tbody></table>
Ohio is in striking distance, no doubt. So are a few key blue states.
Polling Data
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>09/05 - 09/10</td><td>--</td><td>47.8</td><td>46.0</td><td class="spread">McCain +1.8</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">InAdv/PollPosition</td><td>09/10 - 09/10</td><td>500 LV</td><td>48</td><td>47</td><td class="spread">McCain +1</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>09/07 - 09/09</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>48</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">McCain +4</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>09/05 - 09/09</td><td>1367 LV</td><td>44</td><td>49</td><td class="spread">Obama +5</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td>09/07 - 09/07</td><td>500 LV</td><td>51</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">McCain +7</td></tr></tbody></table>See All Ohio: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th> </th><th>McCain</th><th>Obama</th><th> </th></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Intrade Real Time Quotes</td><td><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=416549&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" width="35" frameborder="0" height="17"></iframe>
</td><td><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=416548&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" width="35" frameborder="0" height="17"></iframe>
</td><td class="spread">(See More Data</td></tr></tbody></table>
Ohio is in striking distance, no doubt. So are a few key blue states.
New regs since January story:
Don't get up your hopes that the younger crowd is still going bananas over BO. Latest polls show younger voters going for Obama 47 to 44. Not a real factor. Evidently Obama's "Childrens Crusade" has come to an abrupt end.
Also is Acorn is registrating any proportion of the vote discount it. Have of those givin' goodies by Acorn to register won't show up and a good potion of the others will be disqualified because of the outlandish tactics of this
unscrupulous group.
