CNN article that came out today states the following: "Obama aides said that the speech will last 18 to 20 minutes and that Obama will emphasize that America is entering a new area of responsibility."
Here is the link to the article. Second paragraph: http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/19/obama.speech/index.html
Speech lasting 18-21 minutes currently +350 on SIA.
22-25 minutes is +225.
I think I will most likely hit both +350 and +225 and vary the amounts so I win the same if either one hits. That makes it basically work out to -113 to last between 18 and 25 minutes.
I figure it is much more likely to run a little long than a little short since he will most likely have to stop for applause and cheers after nearly everything he says (much like every State of the Union address).
Who knows if this will hit, but I feel like 18-21 is probably about 50/50, so +350 is a nice deal, and 18-25, IMO, should be around -200, so -113 is good value as well.
Do I feel like a degenerate for betting on this? Absolutely. But am I going to pass up what I consider a very +EV play? Absolutely not. I'd bet on a snail race if I had inside info on one of the snails.
Low limits of course, but probably still worth a play if you already have an account.
Here is the link to the article. Second paragraph: http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/19/obama.speech/index.html
Speech lasting 18-21 minutes currently +350 on SIA.
22-25 minutes is +225.
I think I will most likely hit both +350 and +225 and vary the amounts so I win the same if either one hits. That makes it basically work out to -113 to last between 18 and 25 minutes.
I figure it is much more likely to run a little long than a little short since he will most likely have to stop for applause and cheers after nearly everything he says (much like every State of the Union address).
Who knows if this will hit, but I feel like 18-21 is probably about 50/50, so +350 is a nice deal, and 18-25, IMO, should be around -200, so -113 is good value as well.
Do I feel like a degenerate for betting on this? Absolutely. But am I going to pass up what I consider a very +EV play? Absolutely not. I'd bet on a snail race if I had inside info on one of the snails.
Low limits of course, but probably still worth a play if you already have an account.
