Do you follow the news? One week ago gallup showed Mccain with 5 pt lead and now a statistical tie.
"Middle America remains skeptical and this shows in the latest polls with Obama and McCain statistically tied, or Obama slipping behind in a year when any Democratic candidate should be a prohibitive favourite to win in November."
"The Democrat’s national gains offer some evidence that he may have attained the proverbial party convention bounce — though it won’t be clear his lead is sustainable until after the Republican convention next week. "
After Republican convention they will be knotted up again
"Middle America remains skeptical and this shows in the latest polls with Obama and McCain statistically tied, or Obama slipping behind in a year when any Democratic candidate should be a prohibitive favourite to win in November."
"The Democrat’s national gains offer some evidence that he may have attained the proverbial party convention bounce — though it won’t be clear his lead is sustainable until after the Republican convention next week. "
After Republican convention they will be knotted up again
First off, the Presidency is not based on the popular vote. Obama is the clear favorite in electoral votes and that is why:
<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="4" class="lines-contest-title"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="lines-contest-title">2008 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WINNER (1-Pay)</td> <td class="lines-contest-title" align="right">$100 WIN </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr class="lines-contest-header"> <td height="25" valign="bottom" width="74%">Series Name </td><td align="right" valign="bottom" width="8%">Sell </td><td align="right" valign="bottom" width="8%">Buy </td><td valign="bottom" width="10%"> </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-oddrow"> <td>DEMOCRAT </td><td align="right">57 </td><td align="right">62 </td><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> -163 </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-evenrow"> <td>REPUBLICAN </td><td align="right">38 </td><td align="right">43 </td><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> +132 </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-oddrow"> <td>OTHER</td></tr></tbody></table>
BO 273
McCain 265
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
certainly doesn't justify -175, especially considering the trend before the DNC bounce. A bounce is nothing more than a bounce.
McCain 265
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
certainly doesn't justify -175, especially considering the trend before the DNC bounce. A bounce is nothing more than a bounce.
That should read national polls
Some state polls will show clear trends but then you also have to consider what each candidate is spending in these states at this moment. Look no further than states like Montana which are (or was) closer then they are because Obama is spending money while McCain isn't. These polls (when you look at just the horse race) will give you very little information. People need to look at the whole picture and not just top line numbers.
Everything i hear (from dems & pubs) is that McCAin's ground game is non existent... Obama has a really good ground game...Bush had an outstanding ground game. If McCain can't replicate Bush's, he may have a hard time squeezing out votes in very important states. That was one thing the Bush campaign was great at...squeezing out votes when they needed it.
It's going to be close
Some state polls will show clear trends but then you also have to consider what each candidate is spending in these states at this moment. Look no further than states like Montana which are (or was) closer then they are because Obama is spending money while McCain isn't. These polls (when you look at just the horse race) will give you very little information. People need to look at the whole picture and not just top line numbers.
Everything i hear (from dems & pubs) is that McCAin's ground game is non existent... Obama has a really good ground game...Bush had an outstanding ground game. If McCain can't replicate Bush's, he may have a hard time squeezing out votes in very important states. That was one thing the Bush campaign was great at...squeezing out votes when they needed it.
It's going to be close
Unfortunately, it's the best source we have, unless you personally know tens of thousands of people across the country from every walk of life.
Where are we going to get the data for discussion purposes? The media? the candidates? Everybody on earth has some inherent bias.
Of course, the polls are about "if the election were held today", thus they can and do and will change.
