The next two days at Churchill are like Christmas for avid horseplayers !!! Large fields, big exotic pools and square prices on quality thoroughbreds !!! What more could a handicapper ask for??..............There are 6 stakes races , 3 on the turf, sched. for today, and the Oaks is looking as good, if not better than the Derby from a handicapping angle. The track is sloppy and the turf is yielding. Will post throughout the day, and hopefully pick some winners on what looks to be a very nice card. As always, any and all thoughts/opinions welcome. St. Averil and wimbledon have been scratched from the Derby as of now. Got some 'capping to do, good luck to all today !!!!
race 5 ........ #10 VOUS, 4YO has been running well so far in her 4 starts this year. Was off the board once after having to be steadied on the first turn in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes.........was a head back of m/l favorite Last Waltz in her first start as a 4YO, and a strong second as the fav in a GP stake in her last..........has been working steadily at GP, posting 3 bullet works since, and will be coming in the lane here at what figures to be a decent price........gonna use her in the exactas and wps pools....
the bets........60.00 WPS #10 (180.00) $8 EXBX 10 with 13678 (80.00)..........may up bets at race time depending on price, but i 'm thinking 4-1 shld be fair
the bets........60.00 WPS #10 (180.00) $8 EXBX 10 with 13678 (80.00)..........may up bets at race time depending on price, but i 'm thinking 4-1 shld be fair
Race 6 #2 CONGRATS .....gonna try to beat what may be an overbet horse in PERFECT DRIFT.......yeah, i may get beat , but w/ Pat Day up there will be zero value there..........my feeling is there is still upside w/ CONGRATS as he has raced only once as a 4yo after banging heads w/ the best 3yo's last year and running competitively (3rd) in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga last Summer........ran a monster fig in his only start this year and if this colt improves just a little, and with a 443 wet/off tomlinson he very well may , he figures to be right in the thick of it at a good number (7-2??)
the bets..........50.00 WPS #2
the bets..........50.00 WPS #2
race #7 adding..............30.00 WPS # 8.......
RACE 5 VOUS WAS IN A PERFECT SPOT THE ENTIRE TRIP, GOT PACE, MOVED INTO CONTENTION ON THE TURN AND HAD NO RESPONSE IN THE LANE, FINISHING 4TH ..........-260.00
RACE 6 CONGRATS SET THE PACE EARLY, WAS CHALLENGED AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH BUT CUT THE CORNER NICELY TO HOLD OFF PERFECT DRIFT BY 3 LENGTHS FOR THE WIN (9.60)............+275.00
RACE 5 VOUS WAS IN A PERFECT SPOT THE ENTIRE TRIP, GOT PACE, MOVED INTO CONTENTION ON THE TURN AND HAD NO RESPONSE IN THE LANE, FINISHING 4TH ..........-260.00
RACE 6 CONGRATS SET THE PACE EARLY, WAS CHALLENGED AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH BUT CUT THE CORNER NICELY TO HOLD OFF PERFECT DRIFT BY 3 LENGTHS FOR THE WIN (9.60)............+275.00
tx G, was a very impressive performance, not sure how much the off track helped, but this is a very nice racehorse. Definitely a 4YO to keep an eye on down the road this Summer.
RACE 9 #3 #3 PRINCE ARCH 3YO looks to be coming to hand nicely here for McPeek since moved to the lawn in his first 3yo start.......finished only 1 3/4 back of the fav here in the Palm Beach at GP in Feb.........followed that w/ a troubled 2nd in the Caltech, and then a nice win in his last at Keeneland........not sure if he prefers a slightly longer distance , but will offer value here due to the presence of Jerry Bailey on the Romans runner who may be overbet here much the way PERFECT DRIFT was . His running style is a perfect fit for the way this turf course is playing right now .....
the bet............... 150.00 WPS
RACE 9 #3 #3 PRINCE ARCH 3YO looks to be coming to hand nicely here for McPeek since moved to the lawn in his first 3yo start.......finished only 1 3/4 back of the fav here in the Palm Beach at GP in Feb.........followed that w/ a troubled 2nd in the Caltech, and then a nice win in his last at Keeneland........not sure if he prefers a slightly longer distance , but will offer value here due to the presence of Jerry Bailey on the Romans runner who may be overbet here much the way PERFECT DRIFT was . His running style is a perfect fit for the way this turf course is playing right now .....
the bet............... 150.00 WPS
RACE 9........ A.P. Adventure..........In a race where it would'nt be a surprise if one of 7 diff. horses won, i 'm gonna look for value here...........seems to have upside making only her 5th lifetime start, 4th this year..........has not run since finishing a troubled 3rd in the Santa Anita Oaks behind Silent Sighs.........actually thought she was best in that race, and if she had'nt had traffic trouble , probly would have won ........looking for a trip similar to what she faced 2 back in the Las Virgennes, when she stalked an honest pace and beat Friendly Michelle, who won a 7F stake here yesterday. She should be able to stalk swifter fractions today, and hopefully have enough when it counts. Always been fond of A.P.Indy offspring on an off track, and that, combined with race shape and any natural improvement, got me thinkin' SHE'S the one today ...........
the bet ........100.00 WPS
the bet ........100.00 WPS
race 9 PRINCE ARCH ..........closed well to get up a clear second , but was no menace whatsover to clear cut winner #4 KITTEN'S JOY, (result was 4-3-2) paid 3.40 2.80, so saw a 15.00 profit on the race.......
race 10 A. P. ADVENTURE......trailed early from outside post and was never really in it ........
RESULTS: 4 WPS wagers 1-1-0 -445
1 pick 4 -244
race 10 A. P. ADVENTURE......trailed early from outside post and was never really in it ........
RESULTS: 4 WPS wagers 1-1-0 -445
1 pick 4 -244
