Oaklawn 3-24-2017

[Prof_Factor]

Oaklawn 3-24-2017


r#1 - 6f
#9 10-1 PEDLOW
#4 6-1 HOLD THE DOOR
#5 5-2 REGAL REIGN
#2 8-1 LITTLE BIT IRISH

r#2 - 8.5f
#3 12-1 THE ROUGE DIESEL - doubt we get a price.
#7 5-2 PENNINGTON BAYOU
... very tough race. I'm undecided for 3rd pick.

r#3 - 6f
#12 5-1 VICKIES DRAMA
#5 4-1 SCOTCH IS MY CANDY
#7 7-2 NEW LUCKY PENNY

r#4 - 8f
#11 6-1 LOVELY CARRIE
#7 15-1 ESPERANZA - much more manageable group.
#8 12-1 CHERISHABULL - solid
#4 15-1 WEEKEND WISH - drops
... tough, tough race. One thing is for certain ... #3 (10-1) FERVENT will be gunning for the lead.

r#5 - 8.5f
#8 3-1 DIXIE FLYER
#4 9-2 ROCSI HARBOR
#11 6-1 HER CASE OF GOLD
... this race is a pass.

r#6 - 10f
#6 8-5 WILD ABOUT YOU
#1A 6-1 POINT AFTER
#7 7-2 BOLD SHOT

r#7 - 6f
#1 15-1 HARLAN'S GIRL - price play
#2 5-2 SHUT THE GATE - logical
#10 8-1 TIZSATIONAL - is solid
... many in here with a shot. #4 (4-1) MANGO'S MUSE gets help from rabbit #5 (15-1) REDLACE AND PEARLS who in turn gets 10-lbs off with bug. I also have #7 (20-1) SECRET TRICK flagged as a bomb alert "must play" at 30-1.

r#8 - 6f
#6 20-1 DANCING DOVE - more of a bomb alert, than a top pick. I don't have a top pick in this race and his 59 work coupled with DeLaCruz has more than peaked my interest.
#4 4-1 AREWEHAVINGFUNYET - Normally would put a turnback horse like this on top but Diodoro is cold. Just typing his name gave me chills ... burrr.
#7 9-5 TREBLE - logical
... there is alot happening in this race .... changes, moves, experiments.

r#9 - 8.5f
#7 6-1 BOWMAN WEST
#9 7-2 BEACHTOWN BENNY - Cox is only trainer Santana has won with since injury
#1 6-1 CHOCOLATEICECREAM - Katie will try wire job from the rail. Can do if there is a bias present.
#8 15-1 KING'S RECKONING - exotic booster
... Wide open field of maiden claimers going long with light pace expected. That spells b-o-x-c-a-r. 12 horse field with 11 contenders. Play what YOU like!


Good luck to all!

 

[Lt1]

Good luck Prof.:toast:

 

[Prof_Factor]

March 2, Oaklawn announced random testing for TCO2 ("milkshakes").
Since that time, some "hot" trainers have gone "cold".
Flag those trainers for turnarounds when they leave Oaklawn.
Graph below is for Villafranco.
For future reference in determining turnarounds (via suspected milkshake re-use), use the final fraction or stretch run and compare it to previous races. If the speed of the horse was comparable during the first parts of the race but the stamina wasn't the same at the end, then that would be an identifier. Use what ever unit of measure you're comfortable. I use MilesPerHour myself instead of split times.
You'll be able to nab these "returning to form" horses when Oaklawn ends.
View attachment 18612

 

[Prof_Factor]

Noteworthy trainers (or jock/trainer) the last few weeks.

OP 
  TRAINER                   WIN%          ITM%

COX,BRAD                 9 / 28 =32%   12 / 28 =43%
  SANTANA, JR., RICARDO     3 / 6 =50%
  COURT, JON                3 / 8 =38%
  FRANCO, GEOVANNI          1 / 2 =50%
  BRIDGMOHAN, SHAUN         1 / 1 =%100%
  CASTELLANO, JAVIER        1 / 1 =%100%

CALDWELL,J.              2 / 35 = 6%   22 / 35 =63%
  VAZQUEZ, RAMON            2 / 7 =29%

DIVITO,JAMES             2 / 6 =33%    4 / 6 =67%
  CANCHARI, ALEX            1 / 3 =33%
  FRANCO, GEOVANNI          1 / 1 =%100%

GONZALEZ,JAIME           2 / 4 =50%    2 / 4 =50%
  POMPELL, THOMAS           2 / 4 =50%

GORDER,KELLYN            3 / 9 =33%    5 / 9 =56%
  HILL, CHANNING            2 / 5 =40%
  RODRIGUEZ, MARIO          1 / 1 =%100%

MARTIN,WILLIAM           4 / 19 =21%   6 / 19 =32%
  DE LA CRUZ, WALTER        4 / 13 =31%

MCPEEK,KENNETH           3 / 13 =23%   5 / 13 =38%
  ERAMIA, RICHARD           1 / 1 =%100%
  HILL, CHANNING            2 / 7 =29%

MORSE,RANDY              5 / 23 =22%   9 / 23 =39%
  CLAWSON, KATIE            1 / 7 =14%
  CANCHARI, ALEX            1 / 5 =20%
  COURT, JON                1 / 1 =%100%
  CONTRERAS, LUIS           1 / 1 =%100%
  BOREL, CALVIN             1 / 1 =%100%

MCKELLAR,JOE             2 / 4 =50%    2 / 4 =50%
  ROCCO, JR., JOSEPH        1 / 2 =50%
  CANCHARI, PATRICK         1 / 1 =%100%

ORTIZ,JOHN               4 / 14 =29%   9 / 14 =64%
  MARQUEZ, JR., CARLOS      3 / 4 =75%
  HILL, CHANNING            1 / 3 =33%

SMITH,KENNY              5 / 22 =23%   11 / 22 =50%
  CORBETT, GLENN            1 / 2 =50%
  LAVIOLETTE, SHANE         3 / 14 =21%
  POMPELL, THOMAS           1 / 3 =33%

VANMETER,WILLIAM         1 / 12 = 8%   7 / 12 =58%
  CANNON, DECLAN            1 / 3 =33%

WITTII,ERNIE             4 / 9 =44%    5 / 9 =56%
  CANCHARI, ALEX            2 / 6 =33%
  MARQUEZ, JR., CARLOS      1 / 2 =50%
  KENNEDY, TY               1 / 1 =%100%

 

[Prof_Factor]

I see NOW a couple of my bomb plays have scratched so this card is quickly losing it's appeal.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Good luck Prof.:toast:

Thanks, Lt .... good luck to you as well!

 

[eyeinthesky]

Trainer Diodoro hasn't won since milkshake testing has begun - not a coincidence.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Trainer Diodoro hasn't won since milkshake testing has begun - not a coincidence.

Yep, there are a few of them.
That's why I elected to post noteworthy trainers of late.

 

[grutledge]

Look who just won the 4th race #6DIODORO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[grutledge]

All these Trainer"s r useing some kind of drug"s of sort at OAKLAWN this year!!

 

[Prof_Factor]

All these Trainer"s r useing some kind of drug"s of sort at OAKLAWN this year!!

I wouldn't know that .... I just keep track of stats.