Oaklawn 3-02-2017

[Prof_Factor]

Oaklawn 3-02-2017


r#1 - 8.5f
2 7-2 FLORIDA BIRD
6 12-1 ADDY'S FLOWERS
1 4-1 TIZ A LADY NOW

r#2 - 6f
8 7-2 LAWYER DAGGETT
9 3-1 INCOMING
5 8-1 ONLY LIQUOR
4 6-1 DANCE FLOOR MANIAC

r#3 - 6f
1 10-1 DIVINE WAY - don't like the rail but the price should be square
3 9-5 POCKETFULLOFGREEN - if jock gets instructions ... good chance
4 8-1 MY PLACE OR YOURS - chance if unpressured for too long
8 5-2 COUNCIL RULES - not sold on this synthetic to dirt but can't argue with Diodoro/Santana (win 50%, ITM 83%).
... our first rivalry battle Asmussen/Contreras versus Diodoro/Santana. I'll easily take the latter for the long haul.

r#4 - 8.5f
8 6-1 FAIRYBROOK
2 4-1 JUNGLE LANE
... note, McPeek firsters worth inspection.

r#5 - 6f
7 3-1 MY BROTHER DON
5 7-2 ABBAA
6 5-1 GO VO
... toughest 7-horse field you will ever see.

r#6 - 8.5f
3 2-1 AWESOME BOSS
2 5-2 STRIKE PERFECTION
8 4-1 LIL MISS BLUE EYES

r#7 - 6f
5 7-2 PRETTY GREELEY
1 5-1 ENTERPRISE VALUE
6 5-2 PLUM GORGEOUS

r#8 - 8.5f
7 7-2 SPIRIT GRABBER
1 7-2 LANGDARMA
2 15-1 AWESOME THOUGHT
9 9-2 DAN THE GO TO MAN

r#9 - 8.5f
1 5-1 HER CASE OF GOLD
6 5-2 I SUSPECT TAYLOR
3 7-2 LAURA RAY
5 8-1 RAISE A GHOST


Good luck to all!

 

[Baldheadedprick]

Thankyou)(&

 

[Lt1]

Good luck Prof.:toast:

 

[Prof_Factor]

Calvin Borel is the stupidest jockey I've ever seen. He just became an automatic toss-out in my book.
There could be quicksand on the rail and that idiot would try and ride thru it.
ROI 0.52

 

[Saddlesore]

:smoking:Hey Professor trying to cut down on my smoking..The Racing outline is now complete. Pay close attention

My top 3 horses hitting an exacta 21%....79% against

My top 3 horses either running 1st or 2nd ...89%

My top 3 horses in the win position ....63%

My top 2 horses in the win position.....83% which leaves my 3rd pick 17%

Will use these fake numbers as the horses in the race with the 1-2-3 as my rated horses plus the field....{1-2-3}...4-5-6 and maybe 7

We toss out the exacta {1-2-3} cause my chance of hitting it are 21%

We toss out my 3rd rated horse out {3} cause it wins only 17% of my top 3

We now use my top 2 {1-2} which now lowers my win rate to 46%

We now toss out my exacta which is 21% which now lowers my win rate to 25% which now means i should hit 1 out of every 4 played

It should look like this.....straight bet 1-2 with 4-5-6 and maybe 7

Not exactly promising going from 63% to 25% but that's what happens when you make allowances . If i use the exacta and 3rd horse my costs skyrocket .

I look forward to your comments Professor now let me go to sleep.:smoking:

 

[IMISREMEMBER]

Thanks for posting, good call on mcpeek horses they were live at good odds

 

[Prof_Factor]

Saddlesore

:smoking:Hey Professor trying to cut down on my smoking..The Racing outline is now complete. Pay close attention

My top 3 horses hitting an exacta 21%....79% against

My top 3 horses either running 1st or 2nd ...89%

My top 3 horses in the win position ....63%

My top 2 horses in the win position.....83% which leaves my 3rd pick 17%

Will use these fake numbers as the horses in the race with the 1-2-3 as my rated horses plus the field....{1-2-3}...4-5-6 and maybe 7

We toss out the exacta {1-2-3} cause my chance of hitting it are 21%

We toss out my 3rd rated horse out {3} cause it wins only 17% of my top 3

We now use my top 2 {1-2} which now lowers my win rate to 46%

We now toss out my exacta which is 21% which now lowers my win rate to 25% which now means i should hit 1 out of every 4 played

It should look like this.....straight bet 1-2 with 4-5-6 and maybe 7

Not exactly promising going from 63% to 25% but that's what happens when you make allowances . If i use the exacta and 3rd horse my costs skyrocket .

I look forward to your comments Professor now let me go to sleep.:smoking:

I reply to your post here, soon.

 

[Saddlesore]

:smoking:Hey professor i know you're busy....I think i'm leaning toward betting against myself hitting the exacta

Example: 1-2-3 with 4-5-6 and maybe 7....This gives me 42% chance.....The other

Example: 1-2 with 1-2-3-4-5-6 and maybe 7....gives me slight greater chance 46% but only 2 horses on top.

I like the fact with that 3rd horse you can hit some mighty fine Exactas plus i fancy myself hitting an exacta with 3 horses very much.

 

[Saddlesore]

:smoking:Betting against myself seems to be the correct path....What you think Professor?

 

[Prof_Factor]

:smoking:Betting against myself seems to be the correct path....What you think Professor?

I like the idea.

But working with percentages is all relative. Fieldsizes, tracks, and stuff.

It's worth investigating. I'm working on adding some stuff to my bet analyzer and I'm going to run some numbers.

 

[Prof_Factor]

:smoking:Hey Professor trying to cut down on my smoking..The Racing outline is now complete. Pay close attention
My top 3 horses hitting an exacta 21%....79% against

My top 3 horses either running 1st or 2nd ...89%

My top 3 horses in the win position ....63%

My top 2 horses in the win position.....83% which leaves my 3rd pick 17%

Will use these fake numbers as the horses in the race with the 1-2-3 as my rated horses plus the field....{1-2-3}...4-5-6 and maybe 7

We toss out the exacta {1-2-3} cause my chance of hitting it are 21%

We toss out my 3rd rated horse out {3} cause it wins only 17% of my top 3

We now use my top 2 {1-2} which now lowers my win rate to 46%

We now toss out my exacta which is 21% which now lowers my win rate to 25% which now means i should hit 1 out of every 4 played

It should look like this.....straight bet 1-2 with 4-5-6 and maybe 7

Assuming all your numbers work, you've just determined each exacta winner must pay over $48 (6-combo ticket hitting 1 in every 4 plays).
This is what needs to be tested.

The average exacta payout is $75. Sounds good until we include fieldsize into the equation.
Average exacta pay w/ FieldSize < 9 = $53, w/ FieldSize >= 9 = $104

ROI is what matters. The handicapping system I'm testing against has similar stats as your post.
However, not using any race parameters, it cannot hit the exacta 1 in 4 with the 1-2w/4-5-6. It hits at a rate of 1 in 5.7 (17.4%) with a losing ROI of 0.792, and an average payoff of $50.
So if you can hit 1 in 4, I would say you would show a positive ROI.


---- $2 exacta 1,2/4,5,6 ----
DatabaseCount%= 13661
RacesQualifiedCount&= 13613

WagersMade&= 75171
Cashes= 2370
AvePerCash= 50.23
BetsHit%= .0315 (30.7:1)
RacesHit%= .174 (4.7:1)

TotalWagered= 150342
CashedTotal= 119054.8
Bankroll= -31287.2
ROI= 0.792

HighestBetAmount= 2
HighestCashedAmount= 861.6

PredictedLongestLosingStreak= 43
LongestLosingStreak= 36
LongestCashLosingStreak#= 380
LongestWinStreak= 5
----------------------------