gynecologist said:
So? I guess the White Sox will win everytime they face a worse team in a worse division and they should be favored.
This is MLB. Not NBA or NFL. Road doesn't play as much as of a factor as it does in these other sports. Sure, it plays a factor, and should always be considered, but don't make such a big deal out of it. What's more important, is how does that particular PITCHER pitch on the road. You need to look more at pitching and not at the team. The team is only as good as the pitchers they are throwing.
Okay, worth mentioning. But it's LHP that are 'more' worth mentioning. If you are a big leaguer and you can't hit RHP, you don't belong in the bigs.
This is good. Particularly if you follow teams like Detroit, who have been kicking crappy teams butt, but they can't beat anyone good.
This makes no difference. This isnt tennis. And furthermore, you keep spitting out all of these stats which are going to give you the same results. When you have a team that has a better record, vs. a team with a worse record, just because you regurgitate and breakdown every type of sub record, doesnt make this game stronger. If ChiSox have a better record, of course they are going to be better on grass, and vs. RHP, etc.
This kind of goes hand in hand with your stat above about facing teams with a winning record. Pretty much a similiar stat. Texas isnt some crap team, and when they face a team with a winning record, they are probably going to be this type of dog. What you should be looking at instead is "why" were they this type of dog in these games. There is a reason they are 0-8. Is it because when Koronka pitches on the road vs. good teams he cant hang? Is it because Loe struggles for a left-handed hitting lineup? Is it because so and so is a streaky pitcher and they were losing at the time?
Okay. And how are they swining it lately? Baseball is a game of streaks. Hitting streaks, winning streaks, consecutive innings streaks whatever. Did Chicago hit 92 in the first 3 weeks, and now they cant hit a beach ball?
Why do you like the White Sox pitcher better? Because you looked at 2 stats? How have they pitched lately? How have they pitched vs. the opposing teams? How does Vazquez pitch on the road, is more important than how the White Sox do on the road. Maybe the White Sox are 6-40 on the road, but Vazquez is undefeated, and he's all 6 wins.
More importantly.....
Did you even glance at the bullpen situation for either of these teams before you put a dollar on the ChiSox? Is Bobby Jenks fresh to go? Is anyone who has been pitching good fresh to go? Is anyone on the DL?
So many people have the time to complain about bullpens but nobody has the time to look at them.
For example, yesterday, I liked the Reds. I liked them so much, I was going to load up on them, everything was in their favor....
2things that kept me from loading up, and I lowered it to a 3* play.
1) Streak...Losing streak. Baseball is a game of streaks.
2) Bullpen....Reds have a bunch o tired guys in the bullpen, pitching every game because 2 or 3 guys are on the DL. I thought Arroyo would pitch well enough and get enough early run support, and he did, but it was the bullpen that fucked the Reds. 5 of the 6 runs scored by Milwaukee were from the 6th inning on.
You're just like me when I came to this forum a few years ago. I used to have Choptalk come into my threads and help me with stuff and give me little tips here and there. You are obviously humbled by baseball, and it's good to try to reach out and learn. I still do it to this day, heck just yesterday I asked Carolinakid what he saw on Milwaukee that warranted a play vs. my Reds play, and will continue to ask for help for a long time.
Just wanted to respond, since you are asking for help, and maybe get the wheels rolling. Good luck.
Gyno, Boxslayer brought up some great points. You seem to view the season as a whole too much. Look at that, but also look at the last week, look at the situation of the game, team going for a sweep, avoiding a sweep, a getaway game, has the pen been used up, is there anyone really hot in the lineup, or really cold. I don't know what the % was on Atlanta last night, but you could have looked at Smoltz and Braves and just on history bet them over a crappy Florida team and a pitcher a lot of people may not realize has just been killing the last month and it was only Atlanta -125.
I just thing year long stats don't always mean a lot. Do you think Bronson Arroyo is going to win the Cy Young this year, i'm guessing he will wind up with 16 wins because of his start, but he will slow down, things have a way of evening out over the course of a year.
I just thing year long stats don't always mean a lot. Do you think Bronson Arroyo is going to win the Cy Young this year, i'm guessing he will wind up with 16 wins because of his start, but he will slow down, things have a way of evening out over the course of a year.
Both pitchers faced off against one another last week and both pitchers had very poor outings, Padilla signficantly worse but Vazquez looked like crap as well. Both pitchers have horrible success against the opposition also. The line is about right, I think Chicago should be a slight favorite as they have hammered Padilla everytime he has faced them. Vazquez is a very overrated pitcher though he can implode at any given time and if he doesn't get run support it's over for him. He is a product of great run support this year Chicago has played great when he has started scoring 5, 8, 11, 9, 4 (L), 4 (L), 9, 8, 13 etc. Texas is actually playing and hitting much better on the road this year which is very odd.
Days of week edge WS. Ump edge Ws. Pattern play edge WS. Pattern being ws have been 2-0 twice on road and have won both and Texas has been o-2 twice at home and lost both. Big Negative. Padillia in last game gave up 3 runs in the first inning. He then pitched 6 more giving up nothing, So if as some say he is streaky? Not so clear
hailtothechief said:
I think this spread served its purpose. other than dr03 who
is always talking shit even though he is getting killed in bases
as well. I think he is mad cause I ignore him.
nonetheless line movement is screaming Texas. If Texas wins this
I will look closer into line movement.
I am trying to really look at line movement and heavy public favorites very closely. Popular dogs that 50% or so jump on I've started staying away or fading and the same for favs that are about 75% or so. Of course line movement affects how I treat these numbers. I don't know, I'm really feeling this out as typically I don't look at things like this for baseball...seems useful. Tonight I will probably have my ass handed to me twice over and a third for good measure.
I think what is messing you up is your using your Football and NBA brain to cap baseball and as you can see bases doesn't obey the same laws of nature. Email me my friend and I will give you a simple way narrow your selections and increase your winning percentage. You must promise never to reveal my system or I will come out there to Cali and smoke all your weed. :smoker2:
It's not so much a system but a method of cutting down on your homework. I follow you of course and I can see why your struggling so much. I also don't think anybody can play baseball unless you love the game and follow it day in and day out. I can tell you love football. You know the rosters...you know the coaches..you know how teams like to play. I don't think you have that same passion for baseball which is why you suck at it.
