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Krugman Disses Rasmussen Poll - But Forgets to Fact-Check
In a blog posting yesterday, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman raises questions about a recent Rasmussen Reports poll of Massachusetts voters. The poll shows that Bay State voters are less than enthusiastic about the state’s experiment in health care reform.
Krugman states that “last year polling seemed to show very strong support for the Massachusetts plan.” He then asks, "So has support plunged since then? Or is the wording of the Rasmussen poll calculated to give a negative result?"
Krugman must have an interesting definition of “very strong support.” The poll he cited found that just 14% want to continue the state's health care reform program, 12% want to repeal it, and 70% want to keep it but change it.
In fairness, the survey did find support for the goals of the program and some individual aspects of it. However, the survey by the Harvard School of Public Health and the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts Foundation broadly confirms the key results of the Rasmussen poll.
For example, Rasmussen Reports found that 21% believe the state’s health care reform made health care more affordable while 27% said it's now less affordable and 44% say there has been no change.
The Harvard study found that 20% believed the Health Insurance Law had helped the cost of health care in Massachusetts while 39% said it had hurt and 30% said it was not having much impact. That assessment is actually more negative than the finding in the Rasmussen Reports survey. By the way, the Harvard study also found that 33% believed their own cost of care had gone up while just six percent (6%) said it had gone down.
Rasmussen Reports asked if the program was a success. Twenty-six percent (26%) say yes, 37% say no, and 37% are not sure.
Harvard did not ask that question. However, they did find that just 14% said they had been helped by the bill while 18% said they had been hurt by it. Additionally, 14% said the legislation helped the state budget, and 39% said it hurt. Again, if anything, the Rasmussen Reports numbers seem a bit more upbeat than the survey cited by Krugman.
The Harvard survey also delved into some topics not explored by Rasmussen Reports. By a 45% to 33% margin, the Harvard survey found that people believed the plan helped the uninsured. By a 44% to 31% margin, they thought it helped the poor. But they were evenly divided as to whether or not it helped the middle class. Most (56%) said the state reform plan hurt small businesses while only 13% believed those businesses were helped.
Since the Harvard study - but before the Rasmussen Reports survey, Massachusetts began to experience severe financial difficulties related in part to the health care law.
Rather than recognizing the common ground between the Harvard and Rasmussen Reports polls, Krugman simply aired his assertion and then added, “I will say that Rasmussen is coming in for a lot of criticism for what looks like slanted polling.” For this, he cited an article quoting three Democratic pollsters who raised questions about the relevance of the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Approval Index.
Again, Krugman should have looked a little closer. The article he cited concluded this way, "And for the record, Rasmussen's final polls [before the November election] had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there. So don't count him out."
Krugman, named in January by Forbes.com as the most influential liberal in the U.S. media, was the winner last year of the Nobel Prize for Economics and is a regular columnist for the New York Times. Earlier this year, however, when Rasmussen Reports polled on several representative Krugman quotes, the columnist's views were generally at odds with those of most Americans.
For example, Krugman asserted that you should “write off anyone who asserts that it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.” But the survey found that 53% said it’s always better to cut taxes while just 24% shared Krugman’s view.
Krugman Disses Rasmussen Poll - But Forgets to Fact-Check
In a blog posting yesterday, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman raises questions about a recent Rasmussen Reports poll of Massachusetts voters. The poll shows that Bay State voters are less than enthusiastic about the state’s experiment in health care reform.
Krugman states that “last year polling seemed to show very strong support for the Massachusetts plan.” He then asks, "So has support plunged since then? Or is the wording of the Rasmussen poll calculated to give a negative result?"
Krugman must have an interesting definition of “very strong support.” The poll he cited found that just 14% want to continue the state's health care reform program, 12% want to repeal it, and 70% want to keep it but change it.
In fairness, the survey did find support for the goals of the program and some individual aspects of it. However, the survey by the Harvard School of Public Health and the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts Foundation broadly confirms the key results of the Rasmussen poll.
For example, Rasmussen Reports found that 21% believe the state’s health care reform made health care more affordable while 27% said it's now less affordable and 44% say there has been no change.
The Harvard study found that 20% believed the Health Insurance Law had helped the cost of health care in Massachusetts while 39% said it had hurt and 30% said it was not having much impact. That assessment is actually more negative than the finding in the Rasmussen Reports survey. By the way, the Harvard study also found that 33% believed their own cost of care had gone up while just six percent (6%) said it had gone down.
Rasmussen Reports asked if the program was a success. Twenty-six percent (26%) say yes, 37% say no, and 37% are not sure.
Harvard did not ask that question. However, they did find that just 14% said they had been helped by the bill while 18% said they had been hurt by it. Additionally, 14% said the legislation helped the state budget, and 39% said it hurt. Again, if anything, the Rasmussen Reports numbers seem a bit more upbeat than the survey cited by Krugman.
The Harvard survey also delved into some topics not explored by Rasmussen Reports. By a 45% to 33% margin, the Harvard survey found that people believed the plan helped the uninsured. By a 44% to 31% margin, they thought it helped the poor. But they were evenly divided as to whether or not it helped the middle class. Most (56%) said the state reform plan hurt small businesses while only 13% believed those businesses were helped.
Since the Harvard study - but before the Rasmussen Reports survey, Massachusetts began to experience severe financial difficulties related in part to the health care law.
Rather than recognizing the common ground between the Harvard and Rasmussen Reports polls, Krugman simply aired his assertion and then added, “I will say that Rasmussen is coming in for a lot of criticism for what looks like slanted polling.” For this, he cited an article quoting three Democratic pollsters who raised questions about the relevance of the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Approval Index.
Again, Krugman should have looked a little closer. The article he cited concluded this way, "And for the record, Rasmussen's final polls [before the November election] had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there. So don't count him out."
Krugman, named in January by Forbes.com as the most influential liberal in the U.S. media, was the winner last year of the Nobel Prize for Economics and is a regular columnist for the New York Times. Earlier this year, however, when Rasmussen Reports polled on several representative Krugman quotes, the columnist's views were generally at odds with those of most Americans.
For example, Krugman asserted that you should “write off anyone who asserts that it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.” But the survey found that 53% said it’s always better to cut taxes while just 24% shared Krugman’s view.
