NYStateOfMind Season System Based Analysis (YTD: 0-0-0)

NYStateOfMind · Apr 8, 2009

First off, this forum has been very rewarding to me, and I thank you all for your participation. This upcoming season, I will be posting the results of analysis done on upcoming games based on the Run Total System I describe in my blog post. The idea behind the system is to track how teams do against specific pitcher types (a big thanks to Jake T. for providing a pitcher database that I used to sort starting pitchers), and use that information to calculate expected run totals against upcoming pitchers of the same type. ***Note, plenty of other factors are sure to influence games, but I will be using this tool as a starting point for my handicapping.

My goals:

Although I've done plenty of work analyzing baseball for this season, I am relatively new to actually betting on games on a yearlong basis. Therefore, my hope is to use this thread and its viewers to keep my mind focused on keeping my bets consistent and not absurd. Feel free to knock me down a knotch if you think I'm getting too ahead of myself (aka, betting too many games, betting just to bet, increasing bet size prematurly, etc.). I am not starting with a large bankroll ($300), but I hope to turn a decent profit. To start, I will base my bets as follows:

3* = $20 (6.67%)
2* = $15 (5.00%)
1* = $10 (3.33%)

General Information:

These first couple weeks I'm keeping my focus on gathering enough sample data to begin analyzing games with. I only post now to get the introductions out of the way. Check back near the end of next week, where I'll begin posting the games that I see value in handicapping. I'll also post my sorted through version of Jake T's pitcher database once teams have gone through their rotations once. Best of luck to everyone this season. Let's have fun, enjoy baseball, and make some money together! :103631605

NYStateOfMind · Apr 13, 2009

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> Here's the data files for each team that I have fine tuned in excel. Each uses a macro tied to baseball-reference.com to datamine individual gamelog data. It tracks the important info we need based on PA, OBP, and LOB. I'm also including Jake T's pitcher database that I have roughly categorized pitchers with. Note, I do not follow these ratings precisely. Indeed the RG category could be debated, but it is a nice starting point. Anyways, enjoy. I'll be back in a few days with the start of my picks.

Edit: It won't let me upload the datasheets, citing file too large. It is a .rar file using only 781 KB, and should have an allowable upload of 20MB. Go figure, but anyways if anyone wants the files, they are quite handy. Just shoot me a PM, or help me figure out how to upload.

NYStateOfMind · Apr 18, 2009

4/18/09 (ytd: 0-0-0)

Starting Bankroll: $359.61

4/18/09 (All Lines are from Bookmaker, pitchers must be active)

NYM -1.5 +126 ($10) - Brewers have only faced one left handed pitcher this year, Randy Johnson, they had a .235 OBP in that game with only 34 PA while Johnson only compiled a 49 Game Score. On the flipside, The Mets compiled a .439 OBP with 45 PA against Ricky Nolasco who is almost a carbon copy of Gallardo.

STL +110 ($10) - Cardinal's lohse has been pitching phenomenal, while dempster has been merely average so far. Looking at the stats, STL hit a similar pitcher to Dempster, Ian Snell, hard compiling a .455 OBP with 44 PA. That is a somewhat weak statistic however since that happened roughly 10 games ago. On the other side, the Cubs have averaged a .285 OBP against somewhat similar pitchers as Lohse (Oswalt, Marquis, Wainright) with roughly 37 PA each time. This game is being played merely for value. The Card's got a great opportunity to win this game.

SFG -1.5 +140 ($10) - If the giants can hit manny parra (.421 OBP, 38 PA) and stults(.359 OBP, 39PA) hard, think about what they can do to doug davis, a very mediocre lefty. Lincecum won't struggle forever, he has the resources to pitch well. Against pitchers not too far apart from lincecum, the diamondbacks have averaged a .310 OBP. Decent value for the giants to win here today.

SDG/PHI O9.5 -105 ($10) - The Phillies crush hard throwing lefties (cook, cabrera, young) averaging a .380 OBP with 40 PA, while Brett Myers is always good for about 4.

CIN +101 ($12) - The reds have shown that they can hit lefties this year, while harang has been lights out. Against similar pitchers to harang the astros only managed average stats versus dempster and piniero(3 runs in both cases against struggling pitchers), while getting shut out by lohse. This has great value for playing harang.

***running short on time, so I'll just be posting the games. You get the idea of what thoughts go into my mind when I'm capping games.

OAK +120 ($10)
LAA +106 ($12)
NYY -1.5 +150 ($5)
NYY -130 ($6.50)
CWS/TB U8 -105 ($8)
FLA -1.5 -105 ($8)
FLA -165 ($13.20)
PIT -1.5 +175 ($5)
PIT -115 ($5.75)
BOS -1.5 -130 ($13)

Parlay ($5):
FLA -1.5 -105
NYM -1.5 +126
SFG -1.5 +140
CIN +101
LAA +106
BOS -1.5 -130

Best of Luck to Everyone.

MistaFlava · Apr 18, 2009

good luck buddy!

NYStateOfMind · Apr 18, 2009

MistaFlava: Thanks man, hoping to use this forum to keep my head in the game.

Parlay ($8)

CIN +113
LAA +112
CWS/TAM U8.5 -110
BOS -1.5 -135

Michelangelo · Apr 18, 2009

Good luck sir. Love to see an intelligent approach to what we do.

I see two important concepts absent from your writeups. Maybe you include them but I don't see evidence of that. They are what I call "pitcher rhythms", and of course bullpens. You may want to consider incorporating them in your work.

Good luck.

NYStateOfMind · Apr 19, 2009

Saturday

Not a lot of time today, so this will be quick:

Bankroll: $312.00

PIT Even ($12)
ARI -110 ($13.20)
NYY -1.5 -120 ($19.20)
MIN -1.5 +140 ($10)

Parlay ($10)

PIT EV
ARI -110
NYY -1.5 -120

I look at how many PA a team gives up when each starting pitcher goes, that tells me how well that team is defensively with that pitcher as well as how deep he gets into the game and how well the bullpen holds the game.

NYStateOfMind · Apr 19, 2009

4/20/09 (ytd: -$52.81)

Bankroll: $306.80

Lost a lot of close tickets this weekend, but on the other hand I won some close tickets that I should of lost. I've changed my approach to look at a lot more angles. I think these four games tomorrow have some good value. If you like FLA, bet it quick. The line is rising fast. All lines are from Bookmaker, with pitchers listed as active.

FLA -110 ($15): Florida's been phenomenal this year, and they've been able to hit pitchers with similar stuff to ohlendorf (lowe, vazquez). With Ohlendorf on the mound, the pirates have given up an average of 34PA. That will be plenty enough for the marlins to take advantage of. On the flipside, Andrew Miller some talented stuff. He throws a hard lefty fastball, which is something the pirates have not seen this year. At this price, I'll take the marlins to win on the money line.

SDG/PHI O10 -115 ($12): These are lines from moyer's and correia's games so far:

moyer
42PA, .341OBP, 7LOB, 8runs, WAS
37PA, .278OBP, 6LOB, 4runs, ATL

correia
34PA, .382OBP, 3LOB, 2runs, NYM
41PA, .390OBP, 11LOB, 4runs, LAD

Looking at how each team has been hitting in recent games, I think the over has good value with these two mediocre pitchers on the mound.

COL -105 ($15): These are the lines from marquis's and garlands games so far:

garland
36PA, .306OBP, 5LOB, 4runs, LAD
51PA, .420OBP, 12LOB, 12runs, STL

marquis
35PA, .286OBP, 5LOB, 3runs, PHI
34PA, .294OBP, 5LOB, 2runs, CHC

Against quality lineups, marquis has gotten deep into the games and pitched well. On the other hand, garland has been ugly. Lately, ARI's bats haven't been anything special, while COL has put decent numbers up against billingsly, wolf, and harden. I'll follow marquis as he trys to extend his strong start at this price.

NYY -1.5 -105 ($15): These are the lines from eveland's and pettitte's games so far:

eveland
39PA, .308OBP, 8LOB, 4runs, LAA
55PA, .345OBP, 14LOB, 5runs, BOS

pettitte
32PA, .156OBP, 4LOB, 1run, KAN
32PA, .219OBP, 2LOB, 3runs, TAM

Even though those 3 runs were tagged to him in the TAM game, Pettitte posting acelike numbers for opposing OBP and PA. On the flipside, eveland has been giving up runs and not getting deep into the game. I like the yankees at this price with pettitte. He takes pride in his uniform, and you know each time he goes out it won't be for lack of trying if he fails.

Parlay ($5):

FLA -120
COL -105
NYY -1.5 -105

NYStateOfMind · Apr 19, 2009

Question for the forum:

How do I update the thread title so I can update my YTD?

JOH · Apr 19, 2009

Only a MOD priviledge. sorry. If you want your updated record in the title, a new thread looks to be the only option.

NYStateOfMind Season System Based Analysis (YTD: 0-0-0)

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NYStateOfMind

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