Notre Dame vs Ohio State

[LSUpete]

Let's open the discussion because you know you'll all be wagering on this game.

Does Sam Hartman provide the missing piece for Notre Dame to win against the Buckeyes? The only statistical category where there is a noticeable advantage (for one team or the other) is that Notre Dame has a much better down down efficiency.....and a slightly higher rushing yards per game.

 

[exploited17]

Isn't Ohio St track record of covering vs ranked/good ranked teams on the road not so good?

 

[btuohy609]

IMHO, OSU's Harrison too much for Notre Dame.

 

[VegasKnows]

Isn't Ohio St track record of covering vs ranked/good ranked teams on the road not so good?

Of Ohio State's 18 previous ranked matchups against a non-conference opponent, the Buckeyes have lost seven times: No. 1 Southern California in 2008, No. 14 UCLA in 2001, No. 25 Washington in 1994, No. 12 USC in 1989, No. 17 Washington in 1986, No. 11 USC in 1959 and No. 12 Great Lakes Navy in 1943.

Notre Dame has not played a ranked matchup at home since the No. 4 Fighting Irish beat No. 1 Clemson 47-40 Nov. 7, 2020. Notre Dame has not lost a ranked matchup at home since the No. 24 Fighting Irish fell to No. 15 Georgia 20-19 Sept. 9, 2017.


source; https://www.dispatch.com/story/spor...nce-games-osu-vs-notre-dame-2023/70826515007/

 

[LSUpete]

Of Ohio State's 18 previous ranked matchups against a non-conference opponent, the Buckeyes have lost seven times: No. 1 Southern California in 2008, No. 14 UCLA in 2001, No. 25 Washington in 1994, No. 12 USC in 1989, No. 17 Washington in 1986, No. 11 USC in 1959 and No. 12 Great Lakes Navy in 1943.

Notre Dame has not played a ranked matchup at home since the No. 4 Fighting Irish beat No. 1 Clemson 47-40 Nov. 7, 2020. Notre Dame has not lost a ranked matchup at home since the No. 24 Fighting Irish fell to No. 15 Georgia 20-19 Sept. 9, 2017.


source; https://www.dispatch.com/story/spor...nce-games-osu-vs-notre-dame-2023/70826515007/

That's a strange stat. Hasn't Ohio State lost some of their playoff games.....and weren't those games against non-conference ranked opponents?

 

[VegasKnows]

That's a strange stat. Hasn't Ohio State lost some of their playoff games.....and weren't those games against non-conference ranked opponents?

Yeah, obviously the Columbus Dispatch focused on regular season non-con road games vs ranked foes.

 

[budhachi]

IMHO, OSU's Harrison too much for Notre Dame.

I agree. But will McCord be able to throw to him? I think ND's elite DB Benjamin Morrison is a formidable counter for Harrison. As an ND fan, I am worried about their OL in the pass game. I think you will see a power run scheme for the Irish.

 

[Greenbacks]

Primetime under the lights
If Sam brings his A game they win SU
Good luck

 

[rolltide]

That's a strange stat. Hasn't Ohio State lost some of their playoff games.....and weren't those games against non-conference ranked opponents?

since 2016 season they are 6-5SU, 4-7ATS in road/neutral vs top 9 ... not bad

but true away games against those teams and they are 0-3ATS

but certainly L10 years they are one of the best road teams in ncaaf vs ranked teams just not specifically top 9 ones. on road vs ranked they are 12-3 SU with 11-4 ATS though failed to cover last two (at MICH, at PSU)

KillerSports

killersports.com

If you want to look at only non-conf away/neutral you're talking about playoffs and bowl games. then it gets uglier at 4-3SU, 2-5ATS with no covers as a fav (0-3ATS), but overall they are pretty impressive away from home vs ranked teams

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Sep 23, 2023	box	Saturday	4	2023	OHST	NOTD	away						-3.0	55.5
Jan 01, 2022	box	Saturday	18	2021	OHST	UTAH	neutral	0-14	21-21	10-3	17-7	48-45	-4.0	64.5	3	-1.0	28.5	13.8	14.8	W	L	O	0
Jan 01, 2019		Tuesday	19	2018	OHST	WAS	neutral	7-3	14-0	7-0	0-20	28-23	-5.5	55.0	5	-0.5	-4.0	-2.2	-1.8	W	L	U	0
Sep 15, 2018		Saturday	3	2018	OHST	TCU	neutral	10-7	3-7	20-14	7-0	40-28	-12.5	59.5	12	-0.5	8.5	4.0	4.5	W	L	O	0

 

[rolltide]

Notre Dame has not played a ranked matchup at home since the No. 4 Fighting Irish beat No. 1 Clemson 47-40 Nov. 7, 2020.

Notre Dame has not lost a ranked matchup at home since the No. 24 Fighting Irish fell to No. 15 Georgia 20-19 Sept. 9, 2017.

CLB Dispatch has a bad fact checker

Last year ND beat #5 Clemson here 35-14 (but ND wasn't ranked)
In 2021 #7 Cincinnati beat #9 ND in South Bend 24-13

Trust the Media

 

[Loves2kickass]

Too much offense with the Buckeyes in this one. Their D also has superior talent. Ohio State will win the game by DD. Their first real test will be versus Penn State.

 

[VegasKnows]

CLB Dispatch has a bad fact checker

Last year ND beat #5 Clemson here 35-14 (but ND wasn't ranked)
In 2021 #7 Cincinnati beat #9 ND in South Bend 24-13

Trust the Media

They said ranked matchup.
But hey, I am from Michigan so if you want bash an Ohio news outlet, go for it.
The question was asked if Ohio St had a bad road record vs ranked teams, Googled it and that came up.

Actually it was Michigan that had a horrible road record as a dog until 2021. And Harbaugh has a terrible bowl record.

 

[G-Man!]

Tough game.

GL LSU Pete.

 

[rolltide]

home team off two monster offensive games, playing at home, not favored by 3+, both teams unbeaten, and home team won between 3-11 games last year. 24-0-1 ATS = on ND

ATS: 24-0-1 (12.24, 100.0%) avg line: 4.3 +6: 25-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 13-11-1 (54.2%) +10: 25-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 10-14-1 (41.7%) O/U: 9-8-1 (3.17, 52.9%) avg total: 63.1 +6: 6-12-0 (33.3%) -6: 14-4-0 (77.8%) +10: 5-13-0 (27.8%) -10: 14-4-0 (77.8%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.8 168.3 33.9 302.8 21.9 1.0 10.2 9.8 7.7 9.7 33.7 Opp 31.9 143.1 37.9 287.2 23.1 1.9 4.4 9.1 8.0 7.4 25.7 � Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 23, 2023 box Saturday 4 2023 NOTD OHST home 3.0 55.5

 

[skoda]

I agree. But will McCord be able to throw to him? I think ND's elite DB Benjamin Morrison is a formidable counter for Harrison. As an ND fan, I am worried about their OL in the pass game. I think you will see a power run scheme for the Irish.

If this plays out under is the play! Opened 63 now 55..... Vegas is as confused as ever with their College Totals.....

 

[rolltide]

OSU trends...

OSU is 14-0-2 ou after b2b home wins

OSU is 11-1 ou after winning by 28 or more points, 6-0 ou if on the road

 

[truthstorm]

For what it's worth, a play that pops up from time to time, 25 vs 25 (two teams ranked top 25), take the home team when they are the higher seed (Ohio St 6, ND 9).
Last year this was 67%, (18-9? might be off by a game, pulling from memory, don't have my data with me.)
Dogs are the better play at approx. 80%.
It's 0-1 this season, Tulane +7, tied at the end of the third quarter, lost by 17 including a late scoop and score by Ole Miss.
(Wash St in the same play this week.)

 

[JAKEPEAVY21]

ND wins outright

 

[rolltide]

For what it's worth, a play that pops up from time to time, 25 vs 25 (two teams ranked top 25), take the home team when they are the higher seed (Ohio St 6, ND 9).
Last year this was 67%, (18-9? might be off by a game, pulling from memory, don't have my data with me.)
Dogs are the better play at approx. 80%.
It's 0-1 this season, Tulane +7, tied at the end of the third quarter, lost by 17 including a late scoop and score by Ole Miss.
(Wash St in the same play this week.)

all time is exactly even, 121-121-6 ATS ... last year was good 8-4-1 but is all over the board year by year. from 10-4 in 2017 to 5-11 in 2018

i do like both of them tomorrow though

rank <= 25 and o:rank <= 25 and HD and rank > o:rank SU: 82-166-0 (-6.72, 33.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 121-121-6 (-0.11, 50.0%) avg line: 6.6 +6: 168-79-1 (68.0%) -6: 88-157-3 (35.9%) +10: 189-57-2 (76.8%) -10: 65-179-4 (26.6%) O/U: 105-100-6 (1.21, 51.2%) avg total: 55.2 +6: 77-134-0 (36.5%) -6: 138-72-1 (65.7%) +10: 56-155-0 (26.5%) -10: 157-50-4 (75.8%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.5 143.8 33.3 236.6 19.2 1.9 5.5 6.6 5.6 6.9 24.4 Opp 38.9 179.7 30.9 239.5 18.8 1.4 6.8 8.6 6.8 8.7 31.1 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 23, 2023 box Saturday 4 2023 NOTD OHST home 3.0 55.5 Sep 23, 2023 box Saturday 4 2023 WAST ORST home 3.0 58.0

 

[Serbone]

I think Hartman is the differnce, he is an NFL prototype pocket passer, sees the entire field, finds the correct reciever on schedule.

OSU has more beef on the field but ND is no lightweight, lots of talent, and Hartman is the superior quarterback by far (so far).

It will be a great game to see...