Notice to cappers - it's the middle of the season...

[hcskip]

I see this in just about every sport that has an extended number of games (primarily NBA and MLB) - there are certain periods of time when the standard rules of picking a winner simply do not apply.

Right up to the end of the year, I have noticed that cappers were doing a decent job picking winners. In the past week, though, Vegas has just - ruled. Call me wrong - who's gotten a better than 50% in the past week?

The point is, it's the middle of the season. Right now players are beat up and if they're not on the bench for injuries they're taking it easy to recover from sprains and other pains that would otherwise not make it to the injury list.

Coaches who have a winning season also want to back off, put reserves more heavily in play so they can get seasoned, and don't need to fret over every loss. They need their team ready for the final third of the season so they can make their big push to get good playoff placement. Witness yesterdays losses of Celtics, Dallas, Houston, and the Lakers.

Meanwhile, struggling teams (and you know who they are) are going to work harder - they know that players (and coaches) who can't deliver are going to get replaced, and this is the best time for them get their best action going. ESPECIALLY at home games, where their fan base is there and watching them, but also on the road. Thus you have to keep your eyes open on the dogs. Witness yesterdays wins (or spread beaters) by the Wizards, 76ers, Clippers, and Thunder.

just something to keep thinking about for the next few weeks.

 

[hcskip]

Oh - one more observation -

Score totals also seem to be dropping this time of year. Keep your eyes open for Under opportunities.

 

[vince562]

I would disagree. I don't think coaches of winning teams are going to be more lax just because it's the middle of the season. Especially this season with the Lakers, Celtics, and Cavs all with great records. It's going to be a sprint to the finish for a prize all three teams want - home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

 

[hcskip]

No one's talking about coaches being lax - it's a matter of strategy. Do you push your players to go 110%, to dominate and win EVERY game, just to have a lineup of bruised players when the playoffs are here?

You can't sprint the entire race. You'll see the sprinting in the final leg - when teams are jockeying for pole position. Which I already explained above.

 

[hcskip]

Tonight's game with Lakers (-9) at Golden State is a good example. If this week is any indicator, GS (+9) might be the play. They're not playing too badly, just not winning. We cappers don't care if GS wins or loses, just covers.

Meanwhile, Lakers are on top. Let's say that Bryant jams his thumb in the first quarter. Doesn't kill him, he can still play and shoot pretty well. Fourth quarter, Lakers are up by 8. Does Jackson keep him in to finish the game? Probably not, against GS. Pull him out and give him a chance to rest that hand. Jackson doesn't (or at least shouldn't) care about spreads. No one will see "beat the spread" in his stats on ESPN.com. He can put another strong bench player in and afford to give up a couple of points and still win.

But against the Celtics, he'd keep him in, because the Celtics are good, a league leader and he needs the best players on the court right now. The Celtics can drop 3-pointers when it's tough, and of course, they're fighting for playoff HCA.

 

[hcskip]

Oh - you can argue that the above is true no matter when the team plays, but I submit that Jackson would be MORE inclined to keep Bryant in at - the beginning of the season (when they're working to establish dominance), and at the end of the season (when trying to lock HCA).

 

[CarolinaKid]

you have the holidays in there and at this time of the yr it always the same thing imo.jan will be the normal nba like every yr, you will have up and down playing the games, i have seen nothing different here at all and yes i have better than 50% the last week here.ck

 

[hcskip]

CK - I got you down as 9-6 for the last week, but while i love ya, you are sure hard to follow....I always find your picks 10 minutes after the game begins....

Hard to call 8 out of 8 dog wins a "normal" night but okay. You're the expert....

 

[CarolinaKid]

The bottom line imo you dont play nba games hrs before the tip.it a no win thing.gl tonite.......ck

 

[Mistermj]

NBA over / unders last 7 days.

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datarow"><td>All Games</td> <td> Overs 25</td> <td>54.35%</td> <td>/ Unders 21</td> <td>45.65%</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[hcskip]

Thanks for the research, MJ.

Maybe I just don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[vince562]

I'm just saying that in a close game, a coach is going to do whatever he can to win that game. He's not going to be thinking about mid-April.

As was the case last night:
Kobe played 42 mins, and Boston's big three each played 40+ mins.
I would hardly consider those minutes as keeping them fresh.

 

[Mistermj]

Thanks for the research, MJ.

Maybe I just don't know what I'm talking about.

No...I didn't mean to imply that at all...but we can keep an eye on it.

One weeks worth of games doesn't mean jack anyway.

 

[hcskip]

My Kobe comment was just an example - I have no idea if he really did jam his finger, caught a splinter off the floor, or what.

Anyway, I probably should have emphasized in my original post that these are just observations, and not meant to imply that I had superior information or knowledge about these picks. I just noticed that some cappers who are normally pretty solid have been a bit challenged in the last few days.

When I first started using the picks I found on this forum, I would make a list of the cappers who I thought were pretty strong. If two (or three) were pretty sold on a particular play, I would use it and play it.

I know that cappers aren't fortune-tellers, and any game can go either way. I was just wondering if some of the weird results that I have seen in the past couple of weeks can be explained. My thesis is that there are times in the middle of a season where the plays just wander wherever they want to go, and suggested why this may be the case.

I appreciate the responses, especially from those who know the teams, games and plays better than I do.