I'd rather bet on a dog like Murderball than bet on a huge 15/1 ON favourite like March of the Penguins but although yes, voters have to have seen all five films (no guarantee) they will probably vote for Penguins.
I've got the Murderball DVD in front of me. It's terrific fun but ever so slight.
MURDERBALL-IN-A-PARAGRAPH SPOILERS: Canada beats USA in World Championship, show the US legend now coaching Canada as the bad guy, show how the USA players happened to be handicapped, show basics of wheelchair rugby, funny bit of how handicapped people have sex, USA beat Canada to become number one seed for Olympics, Canada beat USA in Olympic semi-final, film ends with off-the-screen what-happened-to-them-next snapshots.
Throw some money on Murderball or even Darwin's Nightmare just for fun but I wouldn't hit it heavy. Penguins should win but I wouldn't be surprised if there's an upset.
....surely all the favourites won't win!? With 4 and a half days to go, there will surely be movements in the betting lines. Somebody out there always knows.