For the next couple of weeks, I will analyze and review each division’s proposition bets, and share ones that I have made and am pondering in making.
Dodgers
Division win payout: +150 Win totals: 88.5
Comment:
Pros:
In a division that consists of teams that lack power and possess spacious ballparks, pitching is a variable that is slightly magnified- and the Dodgers have the best in the division. The additions of Schmidt and Wolf are an upgrade to the rotation from Maddux and Sele, two pitchers that are now gone. The depth in their starting rotation is a good stabilizer in offsetting scoring droughts that made them prone to going into prolonged losing streaks that they were susceptible too last year making their win total proposition a compelling bet. Another nice addition is Pierre as their new leadoff batter, as his style of play compliments the lineup and combined with Furcal, will force opposing pitchers to pitch in stress situations against the heart of the lineup. The team could also have the best bullpen in the division if some of their front end options can live up to their potential. A hidden variable that I feel makes them the team to beat and makes their win total (Over) proposition a compelling one is the notion that they have the best and most aggressive GM in the division with Colletti. The roster that you see now can be completely different than the roster that they finish out the season with if everything doesn’t go as planned, making a bullish season long prop on the Dodgers desirable. The Dodgers also have some young players with a ton of upside potential that should play a key role on the team starting on opening day.
Cons:
Age. The heart of the Dodgers lineup is concerning, as their 3,4,5 hitters are past their prime and are injury prone. Garciapparra had a decent year last year, but is always a durability concern, and was horrible during the second half of the year. His 33 home runs the last three years combined leaves a lot to be desired. Kent as a cleanup hitter is also not an attractive option for a team that is favored to win the division. He showed last year that his best years are behind him, as his 14 home runs, lack of durability and poor fielding does not make him the player he once was. Gonzalez as the projected fifth batter is also suspect, as he is well past his prime and managed just 15 home runs last year in nearly 600 at bats. I am also expecting more of a 2005 effort than a 2006 performance out of Schmidt, while Lowe repeating last years season might be wishful thinking. The lack of a solid left handed pitcher can prove costly if Wolf doesn’t return to form.
Conclusion:
Although they are the team to beat in the division, their +150 payout for a season long proposition is not terribly compelling. They should finish the season with 85 to 90 wins, and they appear to be a slightly better team that last year, where they managed to win 88. But without any other team in the division taking a substantial downward turn, and their lack of hitters in the heart of the lineup will make an 89 plus win season (without and solid trades during the season) too speculative for my liking in a season long prop bet.
Dodgers
Division win payout: +150 Win totals: 88.5
Comment:
Pros:
In a division that consists of teams that lack power and possess spacious ballparks, pitching is a variable that is slightly magnified- and the Dodgers have the best in the division. The additions of Schmidt and Wolf are an upgrade to the rotation from Maddux and Sele, two pitchers that are now gone. The depth in their starting rotation is a good stabilizer in offsetting scoring droughts that made them prone to going into prolonged losing streaks that they were susceptible too last year making their win total proposition a compelling bet. Another nice addition is Pierre as their new leadoff batter, as his style of play compliments the lineup and combined with Furcal, will force opposing pitchers to pitch in stress situations against the heart of the lineup. The team could also have the best bullpen in the division if some of their front end options can live up to their potential. A hidden variable that I feel makes them the team to beat and makes their win total (Over) proposition a compelling one is the notion that they have the best and most aggressive GM in the division with Colletti. The roster that you see now can be completely different than the roster that they finish out the season with if everything doesn’t go as planned, making a bullish season long prop on the Dodgers desirable. The Dodgers also have some young players with a ton of upside potential that should play a key role on the team starting on opening day.
Cons:
Age. The heart of the Dodgers lineup is concerning, as their 3,4,5 hitters are past their prime and are injury prone. Garciapparra had a decent year last year, but is always a durability concern, and was horrible during the second half of the year. His 33 home runs the last three years combined leaves a lot to be desired. Kent as a cleanup hitter is also not an attractive option for a team that is favored to win the division. He showed last year that his best years are behind him, as his 14 home runs, lack of durability and poor fielding does not make him the player he once was. Gonzalez as the projected fifth batter is also suspect, as he is well past his prime and managed just 15 home runs last year in nearly 600 at bats. I am also expecting more of a 2005 effort than a 2006 performance out of Schmidt, while Lowe repeating last years season might be wishful thinking. The lack of a solid left handed pitcher can prove costly if Wolf doesn’t return to form.
Conclusion:
Although they are the team to beat in the division, their +150 payout for a season long proposition is not terribly compelling. They should finish the season with 85 to 90 wins, and they appear to be a slightly better team that last year, where they managed to win 88. But without any other team in the division taking a substantial downward turn, and their lack of hitters in the heart of the lineup will make an 89 plus win season (without and solid trades during the season) too speculative for my liking in a season long prop bet.