'Ning/Habs - G1

winkyduck · Apr 23, 2004

like TB -185 but NOT gonna lay that kind of wood.

instead - will do this:

2-teamer:

TB -185
SD Padres -130

1 unit returns: 1.72 units

Mr NJ Sports · Apr 23, 2004

Isn't it better to bet em seperate?

If you get a TB loss and a SD win you lose your 100 parlay(example of $)

If they split with a TB win and a SD loss you only drop $30

If they split and its seperate you lose 185 on TB and pick up 100 on SD. Obviously if they both lose....but I would bet them as normal plays.

winkyduck · Apr 23, 2004

good points - but i LOVE TB here and can't see them losing. can they - YES! will they - doubt it!

with that in mind - the way i see it - i am really only risking 0.3 units - the amount i would lose if SD loses.

DarrylParsons · Apr 23, 2004

Winky,

You are not being rational. You are still laying the same wood in a parlay as a straight bet. In fact you probably lay more wood this way because your line shopping possibilities are restricted.

If your bet has a positive EV it should be made as a straight bet. If it is negative or zero it should not be made at all.

Please tell me: do you think TB-185 has a positive EV or not?

Thanks.

DarrylParsons · Apr 23, 2004

Aha, I see you've already answered it. I've put down 546 to win 300 at Hollywood (they have it for -182). I suggest you make a straight wager and forget those parlays. It's only psychological... your wallet will be fatter if you use straight wagers (assuming your picks have a +EV of course)!

mhk · Apr 23, 2004

Good points on the parlays guys, they just don't work long term do they?

winkyduck · Apr 23, 2004

i agree - parlays not so great in the long run - but when the wood on 1 side is heavy - the best way to take the sting out of it IS via a parlay. did that last night with philly -170 and sj -115.

Mr NJ Sports · Apr 23, 2004

I think that if both teams were -200 then a parlay is fine because if you split you lose the same amount in straight bets or a parlay.

winkyduck · Apr 23, 2004

all i know is now i have the Padres +160 in my parlay since part 1 is in the bank and if the padres win i will hit a 1.6:1 parlay

DarrylParsons · Apr 23, 2004

Wink,

Keep pickin 'em like that and it won't matter whether you do parlays, teasers, pleasers, squeezers, or cheesers, you'll still win. Good job!

Mosi · Apr 23, 2004

I admit, it is after the fact, but the Padres lost. Have never really understood the two team favorite parlay to get "the line" down to a reasonable price.

Best of luck this weekend and beyond Winky.