Nice Prop Value @ Oly, but it will push 85% of the time

[lander]

10/22/2003 7:20 PM Player first at bat shootout only will be If player records a base on balls,player is graded as 0 total bs.Both players must start game for action.Total bs are Single=1base,Double=2bs Triple=3bs,HR=4bs.Hits Only.Any scoring changes made after Both Players 1st AB's has no effect on wager.
309 Roger Clemens -115
310 Carl Pavano -115


C Pavano FLA P 32
AB 61
BB 2
Avg .098

Clemens bats 1 a year.

 

[lander]

Obviously, I'm stating the value is on Pavano

 

[SunDevil]

How can there be a calculation of value if we don't know Clemens' batting average?

 

[Jazz]

Because Clemens hasn't batted for how long?? 10 years, 15? Gotta have value there

 

[DavidMatthews]

I don't understand this. ??

David

 

[SunDevil]

Jazz, I'm too lazy to do math this morning, but I'm guessing even if you put the Rocket at .050 BA, the 15 cents juice Spiro's charging would eat up any edge.

Didn't Rog bat versus the Mets or D-backs in those World Series?

Edit: I sit corrected. I got unlazy. Assuming that neither guy has more power than the other (since we're dealing with total bases here) Rog would have to hit .086 to make Pavano not a play.

 

[lander]

Clemens batting average this year is .000 , he's 0-1 with a K. BUT that's irrelevant - there is NOT an sufficient sample size to cap this. My thoughts are exactly those of Jazz - Clemens NEVER hits (and when he does he Ks anyways).

 

[lander]

"Jazz, I'm too lazy to do math this morning, but I'm guessing even if you put the Rocket at .050 BA, the 15 cents juice Spiro's charging would eat up any edge."

Pavano hit .098. You have a -195 true line here if Clemens is equivlant to .050.
Hence, the value.

Take it or leave it.

 

he batted against the mets when the mets pitcher tried to hit him and missed,he swings like my grandmother who is 92,i will take a shot with pavano

 

[Jazz]

SD, not a bad point but if you're giving me both pitchers at the same odds, and one has been getting around 2 at bats per game for 30 games, and the other hasn't batted once, I'll take Pavano. Also, Pavano would certainly know how to bunt a lot better than Clemens, gives you an extra edge.

 

[Jazz]

Odds changed ... I wonder why?

309 Roger Clemens +105
310 Carl Pavano -125

 

[lander]

ha.

 

[lakerfan]

Thanks lander

 

[D2bets]

I have this picture in my mind of Clemens hitting a double and lumbering to second base. Did this happen in interleague play last year? It just seems to me that Clemens can't be much worse than a 2/61 hitter.

 

[D2bets]

Hey Jazz, if you're around....you got mail!

 

[lander]

D2,
Pavano was 6/61 .098 BA, with 2 BB

 

[D2bets]

OK, 6/61, not much different. Pavano sucks. I seem to remember Clemens can hit a little, but I could be wrong. 90+% it pushes anyway.

 

[Jazz]

D2, got your email and yes I know it came back! lol

 

[SunDevil]

Clemens lifetime (=20 at-bats) BA=.200 SLG=.300

Pavano lifetime (=220 at-bats) BA=.127 SLG=.168

I don't really see the value in Pavano, but good luck to you guys.

 

[Jazz]

D2: be sure to let me know about anything additional so I can 'fine-tune' the calculations

SD: NOW you post that! lol - well, thx, we'll see