Toronto/Carolina Over 5 -105
[unit and a half play]
Ed Belfour continues to rest his ailing back and has not made the trip to Raleigh. Bad news for a Maple Leaf fan and great news for us.
Without him the Leafs have routinely gone over the total in the last two weeks, (6-0-2 O/U/P), and have yet to go under the number. Backup Tevor Kidd has allowed 19 goals in five games and call up Mikael Tellqvist had a rude welcoming by Pittsburgh as even their weak offense tallied four goals. Bottom line for those 8 games is a total of 56 goals scored for a average of seven per.
For the year, (even with Belfour), the Leafs have averaged 3.13 goals scored on the road while giving up 2.5.
Carolina isn’t exactly a scoring machine but even they have benefited from the month long scoring binge the entire NHL has been feasting on. Since 1/15 they have gone over the total ten times out of fifteen games, averaging 5.53 total goals scored per game.
Unless Toronto suddenly stops their normal style of play and goes to a trapping D and dump the puck in the zone kind of offense, (which would not be in their best interests), I believe the game plan here will remain to try to out shoot and out score the opponent. Despite losing Belfour and the high totals recorded the Leafs have still continued to win going 5-3-1.
Five is a safe number here and nickel juice makes this game my play of the day.
New Jersey Devils -.5 -130
Just when the Capitals start playing near .500 hockey in a recent stretch they unload their nine time all-star Peter Bondra to Ottawa, (who are beginning to stock pile players faster than Steinbrenner), right after dumping Jaromir Jagr. Bondra’s 21 goals were second only to Robert Lang’s on the squad. This is not good for a offense that has only averaged 2.36 goals per game all year long. Especially when you’re up against the #1 defense of the league who only averages less than two goals allowed per game and a tiny 1.74 GAA on the road.
The Capitals have obviously packed it in for another year as the Devils are hungry for points. Would you believe, half way through February, that the defending Stanley Cup Champs are 12 points out of not making the playoffs? It’s not that they’ve played bad because their 30-17-11 record has been more than adequate, it’s simply a testament to the parity of the league…where have I heard that before?
But one team that would not be considered in that mix of equal balance of power would be Washington.
Not only they have won only 18 games this year but only half of those have come at home, (9-15-4).
Jersey has a even more unbalanced home/road dichotomy at 14-6-7 on the road and 16-11-4 at home.
The Devils are 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings against Washington. Take the champs who have everything to play for in this game against someone that’s counting down a short number of days until they tee off at Kapalua.
Boston Bruins PK +130
The Flyers are the walking…err…skating wounded. I’ve explained who is out and why these injuries are so key to this team’s performance in previous posts. No need to repeat myself with them. They’ve lost their last two games by identical 5-2 scores so apparently there’s some validity to my belief that the Flyers are in for a tough stretch until some or all of their missing pieces return from the I.R.
The Bruins have slowly put together a fine season. As I’ve said before they don’t always look pretty doing it but their wins have come frequent. They’ve gone 7-2-1 in the last ten and with both loses coming in overtime. Since the beginning of the year they have only lost three times in regulation.
Their goaltender Andrew Raycroft has been sensational allowing only 24 goals in his last 15 games for a 1.6 average. In none of those games has he given up more than 3 goals. And most impressive in that 15 game stretch is his 12-3 record.
Believe it or not the Bruins are only three points out from having the best record in the conference which gives them home ice advantage throughout the playoffs until the Stanley Cup finals. The team they trail by three points is Philadelphia.
This game is big for the Bruins they know they have a wounded warrior on the ropes and they smell blood. Look for a quick knockout punch.
PS…according to the Boston Globe Sergei Samsonov will return to action…which is bad news for a shaky Sean Burke.
Tampa Bay Lightning PK -106
Talk about a hot team versus a cold one. Little needs to be explained here beyond Tampa Bay’s record in their last twelve is 10-1-1. St. Louis in their last thirteen are 3-9-1.And one of those wins was a very fortunate overtime victory over Pittsburgh.
The Lightning are the real deal and complete package capable of going all the way to the finals. St.Louis will be hard pressed to make the playoffs
The only concern for me here is Blues tender Chris Osgood’s lifetime record against the Bolts is 13-0 and a 1.60 GAA. However here is a prime example of why I think trends without any link to current atmosphere have little relevance. The last time Osgood faced the Lightning was almost two years ago, (4/12/02) when he played for the New York Islanders. This is not the same Lightning squad as two years ago and the defense in front of Osgood certainly isn’t the same.
Tampa Bay has been my money wagon and I have no plans on not riding them all the way to the very end.
And speaking of money wagons…..comptrbob has shown us how profitable one simple system can be in sports wagering. Since January 15th the grand salami has gone 24-6-1. (by the way bob…I joined you Wednesday night for the easy win). Not that this will be a official play from here on out but how can we deny it’s success. So my last recommendation, (and I’ll be following my own advice), is to grab the salami over till lack of scoring dictates otherwise. GL to all.
NHL single unit plays………59-41-4 + 17.56
Unit and a half plays…………5-0-0 +8.1
NHL total to Date………..64-41-4 +25.66
[unit and a half play]
Ed Belfour continues to rest his ailing back and has not made the trip to Raleigh. Bad news for a Maple Leaf fan and great news for us.
Without him the Leafs have routinely gone over the total in the last two weeks, (6-0-2 O/U/P), and have yet to go under the number. Backup Tevor Kidd has allowed 19 goals in five games and call up Mikael Tellqvist had a rude welcoming by Pittsburgh as even their weak offense tallied four goals. Bottom line for those 8 games is a total of 56 goals scored for a average of seven per.
For the year, (even with Belfour), the Leafs have averaged 3.13 goals scored on the road while giving up 2.5.
Carolina isn’t exactly a scoring machine but even they have benefited from the month long scoring binge the entire NHL has been feasting on. Since 1/15 they have gone over the total ten times out of fifteen games, averaging 5.53 total goals scored per game.
Unless Toronto suddenly stops their normal style of play and goes to a trapping D and dump the puck in the zone kind of offense, (which would not be in their best interests), I believe the game plan here will remain to try to out shoot and out score the opponent. Despite losing Belfour and the high totals recorded the Leafs have still continued to win going 5-3-1.
Five is a safe number here and nickel juice makes this game my play of the day.
New Jersey Devils -.5 -130
Just when the Capitals start playing near .500 hockey in a recent stretch they unload their nine time all-star Peter Bondra to Ottawa, (who are beginning to stock pile players faster than Steinbrenner), right after dumping Jaromir Jagr. Bondra’s 21 goals were second only to Robert Lang’s on the squad. This is not good for a offense that has only averaged 2.36 goals per game all year long. Especially when you’re up against the #1 defense of the league who only averages less than two goals allowed per game and a tiny 1.74 GAA on the road.
The Capitals have obviously packed it in for another year as the Devils are hungry for points. Would you believe, half way through February, that the defending Stanley Cup Champs are 12 points out of not making the playoffs? It’s not that they’ve played bad because their 30-17-11 record has been more than adequate, it’s simply a testament to the parity of the league…where have I heard that before?
But one team that would not be considered in that mix of equal balance of power would be Washington.
Not only they have won only 18 games this year but only half of those have come at home, (9-15-4).
Jersey has a even more unbalanced home/road dichotomy at 14-6-7 on the road and 16-11-4 at home.
The Devils are 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings against Washington. Take the champs who have everything to play for in this game against someone that’s counting down a short number of days until they tee off at Kapalua.
Boston Bruins PK +130
The Flyers are the walking…err…skating wounded. I’ve explained who is out and why these injuries are so key to this team’s performance in previous posts. No need to repeat myself with them. They’ve lost their last two games by identical 5-2 scores so apparently there’s some validity to my belief that the Flyers are in for a tough stretch until some or all of their missing pieces return from the I.R.
The Bruins have slowly put together a fine season. As I’ve said before they don’t always look pretty doing it but their wins have come frequent. They’ve gone 7-2-1 in the last ten and with both loses coming in overtime. Since the beginning of the year they have only lost three times in regulation.
Their goaltender Andrew Raycroft has been sensational allowing only 24 goals in his last 15 games for a 1.6 average. In none of those games has he given up more than 3 goals. And most impressive in that 15 game stretch is his 12-3 record.
Believe it or not the Bruins are only three points out from having the best record in the conference which gives them home ice advantage throughout the playoffs until the Stanley Cup finals. The team they trail by three points is Philadelphia.
This game is big for the Bruins they know they have a wounded warrior on the ropes and they smell blood. Look for a quick knockout punch.
PS…according to the Boston Globe Sergei Samsonov will return to action…which is bad news for a shaky Sean Burke.
Tampa Bay Lightning PK -106
Talk about a hot team versus a cold one. Little needs to be explained here beyond Tampa Bay’s record in their last twelve is 10-1-1. St. Louis in their last thirteen are 3-9-1.And one of those wins was a very fortunate overtime victory over Pittsburgh.
The Lightning are the real deal and complete package capable of going all the way to the finals. St.Louis will be hard pressed to make the playoffs
The only concern for me here is Blues tender Chris Osgood’s lifetime record against the Bolts is 13-0 and a 1.60 GAA. However here is a prime example of why I think trends without any link to current atmosphere have little relevance. The last time Osgood faced the Lightning was almost two years ago, (4/12/02) when he played for the New York Islanders. This is not the same Lightning squad as two years ago and the defense in front of Osgood certainly isn’t the same.
Tampa Bay has been my money wagon and I have no plans on not riding them all the way to the very end.
And speaking of money wagons…..comptrbob has shown us how profitable one simple system can be in sports wagering. Since January 15th the grand salami has gone 24-6-1. (by the way bob…I joined you Wednesday night for the easy win). Not that this will be a official play from here on out but how can we deny it’s success. So my last recommendation, (and I’ll be following my own advice), is to grab the salami over till lack of scoring dictates otherwise. GL to all.
NHL single unit plays………59-41-4 + 17.56
Unit and a half plays…………5-0-0 +8.1
NHL total to Date………..64-41-4 +25.66
