Beware the ides of March.
There’s a strange feel in the air lately. Do you feel it too? Suddenly teams that have nothing to fight for are fighting for their lives. Teams that have everything to fight for don’t fight at all.
Perhaps it’s just the pre-post season blues. The teams that are in it just want the second season to start and perhaps the teams that aren’t in it just want to give it their all because no one really knows when they’ll be in that position again. For them, this is their final four.
Beware the ides of March.
Detroit Red Wings -.5 -110
So I guess the trick is to find two teams that will both be playing in April and eliminate the ides of March factor. This game would fit that criteria.
When you talk home/road dichotomy you talk the Dallas Stars. Play them on their home, (inferior), ice and a loss is almost assured. But play them on your own surface and they are mere mortals. Only twelve times have the Stars come out winners in 34 road games this year, (12-17-5). They had just finished a 8 game home stand with a record of 7-0-1, then traveled to Pittsburgh and got shut out 4-0. Next was Philadelphia where they pulled out a fortunate 2-2 tie scoring with 35 seconds remaining. Today is Detroit.
The Red Wings have gone 13-2-5 in their last twenty. With their main goaltender Curtis Joseph injured and Dominik Hasek deciding to call it quits up to the plate steps Manny Legace who made everyone forget about both. But now Curtis Joseph is back and healthy once more. He beat the Blue Jackets 4-2 in his first game last Thursday. He just continues the great goaltending Detroit has enjoyed all year. In the last 11 games for them the Wings have only allowed 17 goals for a 1.5 average.
The Red Wings fight for the best record in the league and trail the Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 points. They do have some key people out, (Dandenault, Datsyuk, and Lang) but this team has no shortage of talent that can fill the holes and of course one thing Dallas does not have tonight.
Home ice.
Calgary Flames +.5 -115
Another game that fits the ides of March criteria.
Calgary and Nashville fight tooth and nail with Los Angeles and St. Louis for the last three playoff spots in the west. A total of three points separate the four teams.
At first glance you would think these two teams are evenly matched and with the home ice advantage for Nashville than the selection should be simple. True?
Not so fast my quick responding friend.
Looking at the schedules of these two teams over the last month and you’ll see remarkably opposite courses. In the last 12 games for the Flames, (since 2/19), they’ve played 11 of those against teams that have winning records. No slouches on their list, including two games each against Detroit, Ottawa, and Colorado. With single games against New Jersey, Dallas, and Montreal. Additionally 8 of the 12 were on the road. Faced with such adversity Calgary put together a admirable 4-6-1 record.
Since 2/11 Nashville has played 15 games. Nine of those were against sub .500 teams where they went 6-2-1. The remaining six games against quality teams were a different story as they won only once, (1-4-1). They have also lost 3 of their last 4.
My man Miikka Kiprusoff will be in net for Calgary, (who leads the league with a GAA of 1.64), and since he has come back from the I.R. he has gone 8-4-1 and played even better than that record shows. Don‘t forget who his competition has been over the last month.
If this game goes to O.T. I believe they both will play very conservative and not let each other grab a very large additional point. Take the half goal.
St. Louis Blues -.5 -165
Well if I’m going to turn a blind eye, (as Caesar used a deaf ear), to my ides of March warning than this game would be it.
Here’s another strong case of home/road dichotomy. Columbus owns the league’s worst road record of 5-24-4. They average 1.82 goals scored and surrender 3.3.
St. Louis is 19-7-7 as a home favorite and only allow 2.21 goals while scoring 2.73. After struggling for a month where it looked as if they would quietly drop out of contention and miss the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. They have regrouped and have shown new life in their last 5 games going 3-0-2 while only allowing 7 goals.
On the other hand Columbus has not been one of those teams that have continued the fight long after the war was over as they have lost four straight, all convincingly, and three of which were at home. Their offense has disappeared like the dwindling games of their season as they have only scored five times in their last four games.
St.Louis has beaten Columbus 4 out of 5 games this year and also 4 out of their last 5 at home.
NHL single unit plays………82-54-7.…..+ 28.47
Unit and a half plays………..13-5-1.…… + 12.87
NHL total to Date…………...95-59-8.……+ 39.315
[This message was edited by VegasVic on March 13, 2004 at 12:11 AM.]
[This message was edited by VegasVic on March 13, 2004 at 01:02 AM.]
There’s a strange feel in the air lately. Do you feel it too? Suddenly teams that have nothing to fight for are fighting for their lives. Teams that have everything to fight for don’t fight at all.
Perhaps it’s just the pre-post season blues. The teams that are in it just want the second season to start and perhaps the teams that aren’t in it just want to give it their all because no one really knows when they’ll be in that position again. For them, this is their final four.
Beware the ides of March.
Detroit Red Wings -.5 -110
So I guess the trick is to find two teams that will both be playing in April and eliminate the ides of March factor. This game would fit that criteria.
When you talk home/road dichotomy you talk the Dallas Stars. Play them on their home, (inferior), ice and a loss is almost assured. But play them on your own surface and they are mere mortals. Only twelve times have the Stars come out winners in 34 road games this year, (12-17-5). They had just finished a 8 game home stand with a record of 7-0-1, then traveled to Pittsburgh and got shut out 4-0. Next was Philadelphia where they pulled out a fortunate 2-2 tie scoring with 35 seconds remaining. Today is Detroit.
The Red Wings have gone 13-2-5 in their last twenty. With their main goaltender Curtis Joseph injured and Dominik Hasek deciding to call it quits up to the plate steps Manny Legace who made everyone forget about both. But now Curtis Joseph is back and healthy once more. He beat the Blue Jackets 4-2 in his first game last Thursday. He just continues the great goaltending Detroit has enjoyed all year. In the last 11 games for them the Wings have only allowed 17 goals for a 1.5 average.
The Red Wings fight for the best record in the league and trail the Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 points. They do have some key people out, (Dandenault, Datsyuk, and Lang) but this team has no shortage of talent that can fill the holes and of course one thing Dallas does not have tonight.
Home ice.
Calgary Flames +.5 -115
Another game that fits the ides of March criteria.
Calgary and Nashville fight tooth and nail with Los Angeles and St. Louis for the last three playoff spots in the west. A total of three points separate the four teams.
At first glance you would think these two teams are evenly matched and with the home ice advantage for Nashville than the selection should be simple. True?
Not so fast my quick responding friend.
Looking at the schedules of these two teams over the last month and you’ll see remarkably opposite courses. In the last 12 games for the Flames, (since 2/19), they’ve played 11 of those against teams that have winning records. No slouches on their list, including two games each against Detroit, Ottawa, and Colorado. With single games against New Jersey, Dallas, and Montreal. Additionally 8 of the 12 were on the road. Faced with such adversity Calgary put together a admirable 4-6-1 record.
Since 2/11 Nashville has played 15 games. Nine of those were against sub .500 teams where they went 6-2-1. The remaining six games against quality teams were a different story as they won only once, (1-4-1). They have also lost 3 of their last 4.
My man Miikka Kiprusoff will be in net for Calgary, (who leads the league with a GAA of 1.64), and since he has come back from the I.R. he has gone 8-4-1 and played even better than that record shows. Don‘t forget who his competition has been over the last month.
If this game goes to O.T. I believe they both will play very conservative and not let each other grab a very large additional point. Take the half goal.
St. Louis Blues -.5 -165
Well if I’m going to turn a blind eye, (as Caesar used a deaf ear), to my ides of March warning than this game would be it.
Here’s another strong case of home/road dichotomy. Columbus owns the league’s worst road record of 5-24-4. They average 1.82 goals scored and surrender 3.3.
St. Louis is 19-7-7 as a home favorite and only allow 2.21 goals while scoring 2.73. After struggling for a month where it looked as if they would quietly drop out of contention and miss the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. They have regrouped and have shown new life in their last 5 games going 3-0-2 while only allowing 7 goals.
On the other hand Columbus has not been one of those teams that have continued the fight long after the war was over as they have lost four straight, all convincingly, and three of which were at home. Their offense has disappeared like the dwindling games of their season as they have only scored five times in their last four games.
St.Louis has beaten Columbus 4 out of 5 games this year and also 4 out of their last 5 at home.
NHL single unit plays………82-54-7.…..+ 28.47
Unit and a half plays………..13-5-1.…… + 12.87
NHL total to Date…………...95-59-8.……+ 39.315
[This message was edited by VegasVic on March 13, 2004 at 12:11 AM.]
[This message was edited by VegasVic on March 13, 2004 at 01:02 AM.]
