NHL Monday

Search

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Time to shake some things up and snap out of this losing streak that has now entered it’s fourth consecutive day. And with only a week to go in the 2004 NHL season turning this around with a about face can’t happen soon enough. On goes the rally cap and the phrase that pays is…Dog day afternoon. Backing four teams going nowhere who’s personal playoffs are tonight.



Columbus Blue Jackets PK +235

Buffalo needs this game desperately trailing the Islanders by 5 points with four games to go. Know what? Pressure’s a bitch. Buffalo couldn’t beat Pittsburgh last Saturday when nothing short of two points was acceptable. Why would you think they’ll put it all together against Columbus tonight who is playing loose and winners of four in a row, while only allowing a mere 7 goals? They will make it five straight tonight.


Minnesota Wild +.5 +205

Detroit Red Wings will be healthy, hungry, and the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Fortunately tonight they are not healthy, this is not the playoffs, and this match up will not fire up their appetite as if it was. Detroit has played solid when faced against a formidable foe but can look ordinary against the least dangerous squads. They have only won three times in their last seven games.

Minnesota has lost only three of their last twelve, (6-3-3).


Atlanta Thrashers +.5 +182

Toronto finally gets healthy and then loses Owen Nolan on Saturday. This one hurts. He’s the kind of player that contributes far more than just goals and assists. Even with him the Leafs were only able to win four times in their last nine games, (4-4-1). What are they going to do without him?

Atlanta has run together a 6-2-1 string and this new kid in the net for them, Kari Lehtonen, is something to see. He’s 3-0 and with only four goals surrendered since his recent call up.


Los Angeles Kings +.5 +175

L.A. is on the cusp but I can’t see them making up five points on three teams to make the playoffs. Give them credit. They played their hearts out this year and faced with more injuries than a small war could produce all they did was overcome adversity and contend all year long.

Tonight they face a team they have not lost to in three games, 1-0-2. Although they do come into this night with a seven game losing streak they face a team who has not won in six straight, 0-5-1.

Something about going to Colorado that can fire up a team to play at their optimum. Especially if this is their personal Stanley Cup finals.


NHL single unit plays………96-65-7.…..+ 30.79
Unit and a half plays………..14-6-1.…… + 10.62

NHL total to Date…………...110-71-8.……+ 41.41
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
Now, that is my kind of logic...2 out of 4 & u got urself a nice profit...

Money must be coming in on Toronto & Buffallo as they odds have gone up considerable since your post.

No reason to add Pheonix to the mix....

Also fascinating to notice the ML difference between pk & -1/2, for example as I write this Minny is + 1/2 + 205 or + 335 on the ML, that is a full +125 difference for the 1/2 goal
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,765
Tokens
I like that Minn bet. I'm thinking teams like Det are willing to take the point in a tie in a situation like this.

Good luck Vic. Let's turn this one around.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
2,090
Tokens
good luck vic
icon_smile.gif
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Savant,
I thought of you when I looked at today’s card and decided to make a case for the dogs. Get used to this pattern from me as you’ll se it much in April and first part of May in MLB.

I noticed the same with Minnesota's wide margin between the ML and spread. I initially penciled in the ML but when you look at their consistency for taking home the tie I decided the percentages were with the spread. But even if some miracle happens and it ends with a overtime win for them do you think I’ll be second guessing my decision? The way I see it if it goes to OT there are three possible scenarios for it’s outcome and two out of three ain’t bad.

Thanks BGO..BBD
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
314
Tokens
I have a dumb question here. You have the Blue Jackets as a PK, is this the way you reference taking a team on the ML or did the line move overnight from PK to +0.5 ?

If the line moved that much overnight, how do you feel about the pick ?
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
buck eyez, yes that is just Vic saying he took em on the ML rather than the Puck Line. He could have taken Columbus + X + 65 but cose to forego the 1/2 goal & take em on the ML @ + 235.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
Vic question....

Do you always play overnite? Is this cauz you dont have access to a PC all day or are you away at work? Minesotta was up to +X +224 for a while & has now settled back to +208
icon_eek.gif


Of course Atlanta had better value last night as they peaked at +195 but now are at +177...

Anyway do you just take a sort of approach where you figure it will work out 50% of the time.

What about the theory that says play dogs last minute & favorites early? Or do you simply not have the time....ramble on.....
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Savant,

I don’t have the luxury of being on line during the day due to my job. So yes that it why I generally bet overnight. The other reason is usually I get the better number by betting as soon as the lines come out. Especially when taking the favorite which I do the majority of the time. I estimate I guess right at least 65 to 70% of the time. But if I think a number will move badly the other way I’ll try to wait. Or just take it locally that day. For the purposes of my posts I use the current and most profitable line from my offshore outs. I don’t have the time to do my write-ups early in the morning so I try to give you all some forewarning and post them before I go to bed.

I thought that all four of my picks today would move toward the favorites. And as of this minute only two have, so I consider myself fortunate. I know I could have waited and got better numbers but I try to go to the gym or run after work and by the time I get home and settle down the early games have already started. Such is the price of having to work for a living.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
unbeleivable...my local decides to call each of these games + 1.5 -110, with Pheonix + 1.5 +110....

I compare these lines with OLYMPIC & 5DIMES & he is off by about 20 to 40 cents on each line so I figure it is smart to bet 1.3 units per game with him on top of the 1 unit I bet OFFSHORE last night with the above posted lines...

Needless to say 0-3 tonite so far minus 6.9 units + vig
icon_mad.gif
icon_mad.gif
icon_mad.gif
icon_mad.gif


with three games pending, LA + X + 175, LA + 1.5 -110 & Pheonix + 1.5 +110.

thank god for the sens game going my way but that is only + 2 Units....

two days ago I had a winning day despite OT causing me to push one game & lose two others (would have been a phenomenal day if not for that)

Today I even wrong clicked on a bet with SIA which cost me a UNIT cauz of course it ****ing lost, I could have be the other side & said fvck, it I will lose the juice but then I said to myself...hmmm...maybe this is a good luck open...lol...think id get lucky????? FVCK.

man, it seems like I cannot catch a break these days at all....

anyway just had to vent a bit....on a bright note, I havent done anything stupid like chasing or trying to get it all back in one bet...but man...now I am thinking of reducing my bet size & it is tough...as If i go on a winning streak then I wont gain back what I would have wanted too

this is how I feel right now:
ralph.gif


this is what I will be doing as I hope for LAKings & pheonix tonite to prevent a complete disaster
bowdown.gif
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
First of all stay strong and don't do any chasing.
2nd...good pick on the Sens.
3rd...don't reduce your bets, but certainly don't increase them..stick to your 1%. You have a good system, be confident in it.
4th..luck runs in streaks and we both are cold as ice. It will turn. Repeat after me and believe it..It will turn!
Stay patient, disciplined, and focus on the big picture. NOT the few bucks you just lost.

You wiped the slate clean a few days ago...true? Starting over, right? You have a 10 k bankroll? Be selective on your plays.

Do your homework. Stay vigilant. and Patient.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
well fvck me...I go ahead & post here that I am 2-0 in the NBA due to the fact that I have Houston getting 4 & they are up with like 1 minute left...the lose the lead...foul like animals...Minny hits them all & My fvcking cover is blown at the last minute....

anyway..deep breath...deep breath....deep breath.....there are multitude of bets available every day...this will turn...
icon_razz.gif
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
ok, I feel alot better now,

hey vic on a lighter note, did you catch that sens game on the tube tonite? awesome sens make a statement??? well.... I dont know about that.... I never thought I would be saying this but Ill be hoping for Lalime to be Okay...we definately are not going to the promise land with Prusek...
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
I did see it, at least parts of it. I did happen to see the best part...the last four minutes and overtime. And I agree they are going nowhere without a goalie.

The playoffs are going to be interesting all around. I can make a case for quite a few teams to win the whole thing and at the same time a equal amount of reasons why the same teams will get bumped in the first round.

Speaking of the playoffs. I will show some self-discipline and fold the tent until then from any more betting on the NHL. I'll take my dwindling bankroll and be content that I finished the regular season safely in the black. I refuse to give back another nickel.

I'll be around to post up my playoff preview this weekend. Till then best of luck.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,487
Tokens
Absolutely I'll post in the baseball forum...and what a difference a day makes. Just woke up to see I started the MLB season off right with a Tampa Bay victory. I got them at +226 at Pinnacle but noticed that BoDog went off at 270/230. Does anyone know how high the game went at Pinnacle?
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
VegasVic..it was 227 at around 3am
icon_wink.gif


some of my square outs had it up to 240 around that time
icon_eek.gif
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,828
Messages
13,573,686
Members
100,877
Latest member
kiemt5385
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com