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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Everyone seems to be hitting the skids and I'm no exception. But hang in there guys it'll turn good as fast as it turned bad.

Time to put an end to my mini slump of this weekend where I went 1-4-1 / -1.975.
The winning percentage took a beating but thankfully the wallet didn’t.

Mixed it up for Monday with six plays. Two overs, two unders, and two sides.


New York Islanders -.5 -135

The L.A. Kings have been successful in putting together a fantastic season under numerous hardships and injuries. But my thinking is that the miracle on ice of ‘04 will not be reminiscent of 1980. Sorry…but in this case I don’t believe in miracles.

The Islanders are rounding into form, ( 7-3-4 last 14), led by their net minder Rick DiPietro who is 6-1-2 in his last 9 starts and playing even better than that record illustrates. New York fights for the last play off spot in the east while L.A. sits precariously in the 7th spot of the west. Incidentally I’m predicting right here that both Nashville and Minnesota will over take L.A. and St. Louis in the western playoff picture.
I’ll be looking to fade this team as the truck load of injuries they’ve endured are bound to eventually take their toll on this team down the stretch that requires teams to play a much more full schedule leaving little time to regroup or rehabilitate.

And speaking of which….This is their last stop of a seven game road trip, (sandwiching the All-Star break), after three straight loses, two in overtime, and the heartbreaker on Sunday which left Roman Cechmanek physically drained it’ll take some kind of miracle for them to fly home with a W.


Ottawa Senators -.5 -135

The Rangers have all but packed up their season and GM Glen Sather will begin the fire sale. The N.Y. Times is reporting that both Kovalev and Leetch are on the block and with Kasparaitis, Bure, Malakhov, injured there’s no reason to believe that they aren’t starting the rebuilding process. In fact if they weren’t that’s when I’d be concerned. On top of all the injuries and distractions of who will be left in the dressing room tomorrow you’ve got a questionable Jagr for today’s game.

The Rangers limp into this game losers in 7 of 10. The Senators went through their mini slump, (losing 4 of 5), no worse for the wear and then rattled off 3 straight. They absolutely dominated Montreal in the Quebec showdown for Hockey night in Canada Saturday and have been drafting the competition and will look to sling shot them in the final lap. (just a little NASCAR verbiage to keep the hockey haters happy)

Ottawa has won 6 of the last 7 head to head.


Atlanta/Buffalo Over 5.5 +104


Showdown at the O K Coral.
My goodness is it fun to watch Thrasher games again. They shoot they score and then give them up as fast.

Atlanta is 18-9-2 on the total away from home averaging 6.17 GPG, ( and rising with a bullet ). They are 5-1 O/U in the last six, (almost coinciding to when Dany Heatley returned to action).

Buffalo has played equally with a high octane style averaging 5.66 GPG at home this year and have gone over the total in 5 of 8 overall.

In head to head duels between these two gun slingers in the last two years they have registered 48 total goals in 6 games for a average of 8 per game.



Florida/Carolina Under 4.5 +111

It’s been a long time since I took a under but this game insists of it.
Carolina’s offense is slug like. The worst in the league averaging 1.9 goals per game. They have no power play, no team speed, and little chemistry. What they do have is a ability to put you to sleep watching their games. This hypnotic effect apparently works equally well on their opponents as the slug like infliction that they suffer from becomes contagious on the opposition’s offense. Actually they have a diamond in the rough in goalie Kevin Weekes who has consistently gotten better during his short career.

Florida can match Weekes with one of their own in Roberto Luongo who is ranked 5th in the league with a .931 save percentage.

To illustrate my opinion of this game without making this thread the sequel of “War and Peace” I offer this one item. In the last ten meetings between these two they have averaged 4.1 goals and have gone 2-5-3 for the last ten.
Look for more of the same and don’t forget your “No-Doze”.



Toronto/Pittsburgh Over 5.5 -128



How bad can it get for Pittsburgh? They thought they had finally snapped their 13 game losing streak vs. a equally struggling St. Louis Blues squad only to give up a O.T. goal and continue their march in the NHL record books for the longest winless streak in history. They may be losers to some but to anyone that bets on hockey they are true gold.

In their last 13 games they have gone over the total ten times. They are easily the worst defense in the league allowing 3.8 per game. And even that number is deceiving as if you look at their last 13 games you’ll find they allowed at least four goals in 11 of them.

For Toronto it would appear that Trevor Kidd could be back in net to allow Ed Belfour another day to rest his ailing back. With a huge divisional game on Tuesday against Boston I would imagine that they would want him to be playing. And I doubt that the Maple Leafs won’t be able to outscore the Pens even if the shaky Kidd is between the pipes. In Kidd’s games this year the opposition has averaged 3.25 goals while Toronto has supported him with 3.33. Although he did shut out the Penguins at Pittsburgh on 1/5, 5-0.
To me that’s the only way this game doesn’t reach six goals again.

Toronto’s offense is clicking with 4 or more goals scored in 6 of their last 7. And in the last 7 head to head match ups between the two the over has been good 4 out of 7 times, 4-1-2.


San Jose/Philadelphia Under 4.5 +118


Funny how a change of scenery can revitalize a athletes performance and none more than the fragile psyche of a NHL goaltender.
Sean Burke suddenly finds himself out of the shadow of Brian Boucher and a struggling team in the desert to being with a Stanley Cup contender in Philadelphia. It took little time for him to pick up his game beating the Rangers twice while only allowing three goals.
But the victories over New York didn’t come without a cost as they lost both Jeremy Roenick and Keith Primeau to injury. Both loses are devastating to the team as with one they lost their team leader and when they lost the other, (Primeau), earlier this season the team looked terrible going 0-5-2 and only scoring 9 goals.

Facing Burke and a depleted offense is Evgeni Nabokov and the best defense in the NHL. Nabokov has given up three goals in his last four games and 11 goals in his last 10.
The Sharks are the best penalty killing team in the league and overall average only 2 goals surrendered per game.
The Flyers are no defensive slouches themselves lately with only 23 goals allowed in their last 14 games and 6 goals in the last 5.

In the last 10 head to head meetings there has been an average of 3.9 goals scored and 7 of those games under the total, (2-7-1).
National coverage on ESPN and if you want a taste of what the playoffs will be like check out this defensive battle.


RX to Date 12-6-1
NHL single units……..54-39-4 +14.62
Unit and a half plays…..4-0-0 +6.525

NHL total to Date…….58-39-4 +21.145
 

Ron Mexico. #7
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Best of luck my friend. In hockey in order to stay profitable it is best to stay away from negative-negative situations. By these I mean ISLES -.5 -135
OTT -.5 -125

Betting Unders and hving to lay the money on UNDER is also quick suicide.

These are just my opinions and by no means the correct ones. There is so many games in the NHL and to have to give half a goal and -35 is not worth it---NO VALUE. AS well I would be creful on tht CAR_FLA under tomm. It seams wjhen Crolina plays shit teams they put in a few.

It seems like you re the only one on here right know talking about hockey so I just trying to get some discussion going.

Good Luck

augs15
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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Thanks augs15 for the dialog.
That is what a posting should be for and it’s the greatest way to learn, improve and consequently make this endeavor more fun and profitable.

As far as the negative/negative. I agree to a point.
By taking these two I doom myself in needing two winners to show a profit. I understand that. At one time in my history I would have simply parlayed them knowing that regardless they both had to win to for me to win.
But after years of playing parlays I eventually realized this recipe was as deadly as any in handicapping.

My system today is to simply bet straight bets. It may not be a flashy way to go and I certainly won’t be hitting any big jackpots but on the other hand I rarely get hit hard either. I grind them out and if I look back on my hockey spreadsheet for this year I find that I pick a fairly equal amount of dogs and favorites.

At present favorites have been coming in with hockey just like the overs have been. Everything in this game runs in streaks including our good or bad fortune. That is the constant that has always and will always be there. In knowing that fact you can either swim against the current or go with the flow. When and if the favorites stop winning at a regular basis then I’ll be happy to play some nice juicy dogs. ( Believe me, I’d rather do it that way if I could.) As you can tell by my total listed for single unit plays at the bottom of my post, I’m 15 games over .500 and have a 14.62 unit profit. This should illustrate to you clearly that I’m not a chalk player.

But in the case of these two particular games I’ve selected for tomorrow I believe they are both solid plays. If one should lose than I’m down a third of a unit. And if they both lose I’m down better than 2 ½. I’m willing to take that chance on these two games.

As far as Carolina’s tendency to get up offensively for poor performers. You made me think about that and I know that certainly can be the case at times. So I went to their sheet and I can’t see that point here. They don’t score against anybody. Haven’t all year. They have been over the total lately but that’s only because they’ve been giving up goals not scoring any. They certainly don’t score against Florida either. Last two years they have only scored 11 goals in seven games against them.

Of course all that could be thrown out the window after tomorrow’s game and there could be eleven goals scored in one but using past history and current form as my barometer I’m willing to take that chance.

Again I thank you for your input and please keep doing so. At the very least you’ll keep me thinking a bit more than I would otherwise. And that’s never a bad thing!
 

Ron Mexico. #7
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yeh I like coming on here when there is worthwhile conversation. You seem to have the same passion and love for the game of wagering as I do. I also treat it as an investment as well, how bout you? I think both of your sides will win tomm. but to me the risk isnt worth the rewrd and I m very big on that with hockey. An excellent hockey prop to watch is shots on goal over under for a player. Good Luck


augs15
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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Yeah I’ve gambled on sports my entire life and by doing so have combined two of my most favorite things to do. And of course I too want to turn a profit and have been very fortunate in that goal for my recent history.

But it’s all about making sports even more enjoyable than it would be if I had never laid down a nickel on it.
Sports betting’s largest advantage for me is it’s really the only form of gambling that I can honestly say I am in the black with. At least if I start my balance sheet within the last few years when I finally learned how to stop chasing and discovered that banging my head against the wall hurts.

I’m new to this forum and have been reading some old posts by some people and have found this site to be very informative and entertaining.

Where do you see the shots on goal prop?
 

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I agree with what you wrote in the NHL ML home dog thread...The tracking here is since the allstar brak so it will give us some data to work worth going into next year...

It certainly is an easy theory to follow & quite stress free for a recrational bettor
icon_smile.gif
, I dont think they would get to hurt...

I was tracking all ML home dogs in the "handicapping thread" but I lost track around Xmas time...it was only for 10 days or so but the ML home dogs were up big...

Vegas, do you live in Vegas? also is hockey your best sport? Play any others?
 

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yes sir...been here for 15 years. Hockey and Baseball are my most profitable but like everyone I enjoy betting on football the most.

But as a fan baseball will always be my #1
 

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wow, I cant wait for baseball...do you work in Vegas? what do you do?

I have heard that 5dimes has 5 cent overnite lines & Grande has 10cent lines up to 190...of course Pinny aswell...any must have shops you can recommend for baseball?
 

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Yeah Savant I work in the industry but would rather not elaborate here.

I used to bet everything in the local books. You can be downtown and shop around at
6 different books within a few minutes and find some good numbers. They all have dime lines downtown, (well most anyway) but how can you beat Pinny and a nickel line?

Today I do 90% of all my wagering on line.

As far as any others I can recommend I have to admit I just began off shore in the last few months and after last years baseball season so I’m in the process now of feeling out the market. Matter of fact I’ve been reading many old posts on this site and taking some notes. Even a couple by you in reference to BET365 & Intertops. You probably could tell me more than I, you.
 

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well as you know pinnacle is the king of reduced juice

I have heard that 5dimes.com has a 5 cent overnite line...& Grande has the 10 cent line all the way to -190/+180

Bet 365 will often over exagerate the favorites so sometimes good value in betting dogs over there...they also have a 4.5 inning spread & total on every game...good british operation...

I havent opened accounts with Grande or 5DIMES but I hear they are must have baseball outs...
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> but how can you beat Pinny and a nickel line? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I think Pinny is an 8 cent line isnt it?

Also I find that even though 365 has a 20 cent line they often have the best price on the dogs
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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I’ve just been playing around with the “live lines” that intertops and 365 have. Reminds me of what a couple books tried here a few years ago with betting on every single play of a Monday or Sunday night football game.
You could bet if the next play was a pass, rush, score . etc. You had to be quick and the line of course would adjust very fast but talk about getting a great middle. I have the feeling that’s why it’s no longer in existence.

Thanks for the leads on Grande and 5dimes. The overnight is perfect for me as I often put my bet in the night before.

Where in Canada are you?
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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I stand corrected...I was thinking football, baskets
 

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DId Intertops have live betting tonite on the NBA ALL STAR game?

I didnt think they did...anway...you are right...have intertops & 365 windows open (preferably two screens) at the same time when they have the same games in Running...Incredible...but a little risky as the lines change fast...check out TRADESPORTS.COM it is a betting exchange...kool

Well Technically I live in Gatineau Qyebec, but really it is part of Ottawa, I work in Ottawa...Gatineau/Hull is just over bridge. Ottawa River seperates QUebec/Ontario.
 

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I’m not sure if they did…I was just reading the “help” section dealing with what the live lines carried for the different sports. I was also looking at their lines for tomorrow’s San Jose/ Philly game.
It’s not for me as it changes your way of thinking. For instance you can play “crapless craps” in Vegas or blackjack with surrender, six card automatic wins, etc. All these things accomplish is to take you out of your game plan and at least for me, lose.

It’s hard enough to pick a winner of a game then to start thinking about a myriad of exotic wagers.

Ottawa? Does that make you a Senator fan?
 

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when I was referring to two screens I wasnt really referring to 'betting' in running but rather scalping or midling......tomorrows San Jose Philly Game is being carried in running by both shops....THey also often have in running on the same college & NFL games...I have seen 50 cent scalps & 4 to 6 point middles between the two shops at the same moment...thats what I meant
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Amazing that there would be that much variance. Apparently the line is that volatile to any kind of legitimate action. I’ll have to check into further.

Thanks for your help in all.
 

Ron Mexico. #7
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VIC

I get these shots on goal props at BOWMANS and are undefeated so far with them. I think with props there is some easy money out there. I m a small bettor right now but made about 780$ this weekend on $40 units.

For example tonight I hammered

laregest lead in all star game o/u 20.5
largest final margin o/u 9.5

These in my opinion are free money.

Augs
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Welcome to the hockey forum most of the ppl in here are pretty knowlegable ie b&G ssi, sportsavant and a few others for sure.
 

Ron Mexico. #7
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VIC and SPORTSSAVANT its almost ball time. Cant wait hopin to make lots of money with a new pithcher formula i ve tried at the end of last year. It worked freakishly well but with only with about 12 games left. Good Luck. I see you guys are getting pretty excited as well.


augs15
 

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hey augs,

does that pitcher formula incorporate how pitcher's throw in certain ballparks or against certain teams??
 

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