NHL Friday

Phaedrus · Jan 23, 2004

Record currently 12-7-2, +7.78 units

Montreal (+0.5), +105@MegaSB

Hard-hitting lately and working to move up in the rankings, Montreal has demonstrated an ability to keep it close against a strong opponent, even beating powerhouses St. Louis and Philadelphia in its recent streak. New Jersey, on the other hand, has only scored wins against mediocre teams, even with home turf on it's side.

GLTA today.

Phaedrus

Stalker-Dude · Jan 23, 2004

Phaedrus....Not only what you say is true, Monty is clearly the better team. Power rating wise Monty is superior to NJ so there is great value in taking Monty and this may wind up a play on the ML for me.

The trends are what bother me. NJ has owned Monty over the past years. Look at these:

NJ is 3-1 ATS @ NJ vs. Monty the last 3 years.

NJ is 14-2 ATS @ NJ vs. Monty since 1996.

NJ is 23-8 ATS in all games vs. Monty since 96.

This may be a game where Monty just destroys NJ because they are playing well right now. I'm trying to balance out the trends against the better team in current form.

In no way would I play NJ, It would be on Monty if I did. What's your insight on this?

hardcorecap · Jan 23, 2004

Guys, Montreal is the hotter team right now, not the better team. Im not looking to disagree with you, but i hope you listen to my thoughts on this. NJ isnt a powerhouse team, but they can shut down any team on any given night. Martin Broduer is the best goalie in the world, and if anything I would parlay it for a small risk, or stay away completely. The Canadiens could win tonight no doubt, but there is also a good chance they could get shut down. I learned my lesson last year. I dont bet against the Lakers and i dont bet against the Devils.. Good luck to all of you tonight.

Phaedrus · Jan 23, 2004

You guys both make very good points, and some of this I considered before placing the game. Mind you that all Montreal has to do is keep it "close enough" in order to cash. If you look back over my record you'll notice I play a lot of games that could come down to a coin toss. The way I see it, coin toss is 50-50 so anything paying out better than +100 is worth considering.

That said, Montreal, as hardcorecap says, is the hotter team right now, not the better, but just like in bases hot teams in the NHL tend to run hot and cold teams tend to run cold, and that's what I am betting on the case being tonight in New Jersey.

Thanks very much for your feedback and the statistics.

Phaedrus

bryan305 · Jan 23, 2004

Montreal is a good pick

Phaedrus · Jan 23, 2004

Well hardcorecap, good call on this one. At the start of this week I slid below 70% for the first time in a while; now all the way down to 60% with shitty picks all week bringing me down to 12-8-2, +6.68 units. I know it is outrageous to whine about hitting only 60%; just very dissatisfied with the way this week has gone for me in NHL and NBA.

Phaedrus

hardcorecap · Jan 23, 2004

dont worry about it, you will get back on track. Just remember in hockey, you are also betting against the goalie, and Brodeur is the best in the world.. Just always something to remember. Get back on track tomarrow and good luck.

Phaedrus · Jan 23, 2004

Thanks man; I was just really enjoying sitting on 72-75% winners for a couple of weeks running. I'm actually working a mathematical system that I have developed for capping the NHL, with an eye to put the system up on the Web if it turns out to generate a respectable profit for the season. I think that is why I am being hyper-sensitive about every loss, because I'm spending a shitload of time tweaking and writing and keeping obscenely-detailed records of every little nuance of each game; more work that the current 6% profit is worth to be sure.

Couple more months to go though; no sense getting bogged down over a down week.

Phaedrus