congrats on the start to cappin gnhl. What tools are you usuing by the way?
Also just had a question in general for you. When do yo uusally record teh final line when studying line movement. I'm hesitate to wait till gametime because of late steam. I am modifying my college football stuf because i think i tended to 'look for games.' So now i'm looking at line movemnt first then consensus on wagerline and other stuff. I am thinking of recording the final lines from either saturday at 9 a.m.m or friday night.
Also just had a question in general for you. When do yo uusally record teh final line when studying line movement. I'm hesitate to wait till gametime because of late steam. I am modifying my college football stuf because i think i tended to 'look for games.' So now i'm looking at line movemnt first then consensus on wagerline and other stuff. I am thinking of recording the final lines from either saturday at 9 a.m.m or friday night.
I looked more at opening vs closing lines, the movement involved. Like you, I paid attention to if the move was the public, sharper money, and esp. if the line moved against the public. If there is a sig. line move, a lot of times sharper money will grab the opposite side clost to post. Sometimes it is just 'video games' IMO, the books may do this to make it appear there is a late 'sharp' move. For the NHL I simply look at past results for this year and if a line 'looks' off I take it. I lean to dogs and unders fwiw. As far as recording line moves, it can be somewhat inconclusive. Fading line moves is usually the best idea as you are getting 'free' money or points. But learning to recognize when a line move is sharp is also important IMO. After a lot of experience watching lines every day you may start being able to predict which way lines will move which is important, and also which lines appear to be off. It's not about who will win the game and by how much, it's about what PERCENT of the time a team falls on either side of the spread. IMO, this comes into play more often in basketball than any other sport b/c of the frequent scoring.
I dont think I made a wager on the PIT/NJ total ?
to be honest, I dont know jackshit about hockey. just like I didnt know much about baseball as far as wagering on it this year. but hockey is a different story, on a scale of 10 I put my hockey expertise at about 2.5 maybe 3, maybe less. I wagered on baseball off and on for 3 years before this year, but just sporadically. All this to say that when you ask what I look at, I dont know what to really say. I just look at the very few matchups so far this year, look at the numbers, look at the differing lines, and guess what the public is on (I dont have much info from books since it isnt offered much here). From this I draw the most logical conclusion that I can, and I have no pressure as I am going so small that the bad days SURE TO COME wont affect me much. This boils down to: I look at everything and whatever looks off I take after combining the same strategy that I use in the other sports. On some of the wagers I took I figure that the lines are what they are b/c the public figures that some of the good teams wont lose again or will win starting now. Not much help I dont suppose, and I dont always fade public plays if there is more qualifying info on the same side, but a lot of the time I think the public helps create the plays as they take bad numbers and the LVSC knows this and set the line accordingly. A lot of times I also think that syndicates or sharp action push the number too far and create a wager on that end as well. I wish I had more time to explain why I wager on a particular game, but the sheer volume of my wagers prevents me from doing this, and my writeups would take up a lot more space than what I have just written on the majority of games. I also dont pay as much attention to personnel as a lot of people, it's more like I see PIT +.5 -120 should be more like -135/-140" but then again it's very possible that it should have been -105 and I got lucky.
to be honest, I dont know jackshit about hockey. just like I didnt know much about baseball as far as wagering on it this year. but hockey is a different story, on a scale of 10 I put my hockey expertise at about 2.5 maybe 3, maybe less. I wagered on baseball off and on for 3 years before this year, but just sporadically. All this to say that when you ask what I look at, I dont know what to really say. I just look at the very few matchups so far this year, look at the numbers, look at the differing lines, and guess what the public is on (I dont have much info from books since it isnt offered much here). From this I draw the most logical conclusion that I can, and I have no pressure as I am going so small that the bad days SURE TO COME wont affect me much. This boils down to: I look at everything and whatever looks off I take after combining the same strategy that I use in the other sports. On some of the wagers I took I figure that the lines are what they are b/c the public figures that some of the good teams wont lose again or will win starting now. Not much help I dont suppose, and I dont always fade public plays if there is more qualifying info on the same side, but a lot of the time I think the public helps create the plays as they take bad numbers and the LVSC knows this and set the line accordingly. A lot of times I also think that syndicates or sharp action push the number too far and create a wager on that end as well. I wish I had more time to explain why I wager on a particular game, but the sheer volume of my wagers prevents me from doing this, and my writeups would take up a lot more space than what I have just written on the majority of games. I also dont pay as much attention to personnel as a lot of people, it's more like I see PIT +.5 -120 should be more like -135/-140" but then again it's very possible that it should have been -105 and I got lucky.
I wont be around tomorrow
these are the appx lines I am taking and I should lose tomorrow after going something like 8-2 tonight in pucks and 15-3 with NCAA and bases combined with the losses totalling less than .4%, I made a killing and typically things even out quickly, but I've had streaks last for weeks in the past--I never stop.
yday: +.917
ytd: +1.389
COL +.5 -119 for .119
under -133 for .133
CAR +.5 +144 for .1
under 5 +105 for .1
MON -.5 +125 for .2
under 5 +114 for .1
WAS +.5 +162 for .1
over 5.5 +102 for .1
ATL -.5 -102 for .102
EDM +1.5 -130 for .2
over 5.5 -109 for .109
PHX -.5 -114 for .114
SJ -.5 -118 for .2
over 4.5 -123 for .123
these are the appx lines I am taking and I should lose tomorrow after going something like 8-2 tonight in pucks and 15-3 with NCAA and bases combined with the losses totalling less than .4%, I made a killing and typically things even out quickly, but I've had streaks last for weeks in the past--I never stop.
yday: +.917
ytd: +1.389
COL +.5 -119 for .119
under -133 for .133
CAR +.5 +144 for .1
under 5 +105 for .1
MON -.5 +125 for .2
under 5 +114 for .1
WAS +.5 +162 for .1
over 5.5 +102 for .1
ATL -.5 -102 for .102
EDM +1.5 -130 for .2
over 5.5 -109 for .109
PHX -.5 -114 for .114
SJ -.5 -118 for .2
over 4.5 -123 for .123
