NHL first round series picks

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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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I need to make one thing clear from the very start. This has been one crazy year, with plenty of surprises, and I have the strong feeling that we haven’t seen anything yet.

There are few things in sport that can compare to the National Hockey League playoffs. It’s like a roller coaster ride with highs and lows, rapid speed, twists and turns. You think you’re getting a handle on it and the end is near and suddenly you’re rushing headfirst seemingly out of control again. So hold on tight, expect the unexpected, it ain’t over till it’s over and I’ll be on the edge of my seat the entire ride.

All I ask is you save the front car for me.



THE BEST OF THE WEST

Nashville Predators / Detroit Red Wings

You want the good news first or the bad? The good is the Predators have made the playoffs for the first time in their existence. The bad is they wont be around to enjoy it for long.

Nashville has played Detroit evenly this year winning three out of six. But Detroit lost those three early in the year and are only now becoming fully healthy. Although the status of Curtis Joseph is still a question mark, me thinks Legace is fully capable of handling this Predator squad who backs their way into the post season.

Of all the intangibles, comparisons, and matchups of these two teams the one that stands out to me will be watch Detroit with the man advantage. The Red Wing’s power play, (ranked 4th), will have little trouble with Nashville, (ranked 25th), and their fire drill tactics.

For Nashville, this is one fire that will be out of control. Burn baby burn!

Red Wings in four.



St. Louis Blues / San Jose Sharks

Expect the unexpected. On the surface this matchup looks to be a no brainer. San Jose has home ice advantage and owns the league’s second best record at the Shark Tank. The Blues are four games under .500 on the road. But at San Jose the Blues have won three of their last four.

The Blues have put their game together in the last month losing only three games and winning whenever they had to. With their backs to the wall and their 24 year playoff appearance record on the line they turned the season around in March and strung together a 10-3-3 mark losing only to Detroit, Dallas, and Calgary.

The Sharks have played equally well but not only in the last month. They have been consistent winners all year. They have one of the best goalie combinations in the league and team speed to forecheck and drive a offense nuts. Their plan is a simple one. Grab the early lead and shut you down. A proven recipe for success that the reigning champs, (New Jersey) has used through the last decade, winning three cups.

This one wont be easy but the Sharks have a deeper team and the home ice advantage will make the difference.

Sharks in Six


Calgary / Vancouver

Q. When is a home ice advantage not an advantage? A. When the Canucks and the Flames meet.

Only once in the last two and a half years has the home team won in the 15 meetings between these two. The road team has gone 11-1-3. (something to keep in mind on a game by game basis for this series)

I’ve been saying all along that the Bertuzzi suspension would be the death of this team. But after the initial effect of his absence where they only won once in eight games, (including that Colorado game), they finished the season with five consecutive wins and captured the division title from the struggling Avalanche. Along comes with that title is home ice advantage and the Calgary Flames. Be careful what you wish for. They may had been better off if they lost a couple more.

Calgary has a show stopper. Actually they have two. Miikka Kiprusoff comes over from the Sharks who already had an abundance of great goaltending and immediately makes this team a contender. If you’re looking for a goalie who can carry a team on his back then this could be your man. Although his playoff experience is limited to just two games he had a career year in ‘03-‘04 and owns the league’s best GAA at a miniscule 1.69 and the #1 save percentage at .933. And if he can’t do it Roman can!

Roman Turek is playoff tough. In his last time in the postseason he put together a 9-5 record for the St. Louis Blues and a 2.05 GAA. What a great spot for coach Darryl Sutter to be in. Do I want Pedro Martinez to pitch game one or Curt Schilling?

Pitching wins pennants and goaltending wins cups.

Flames in six.



Dallas / Colorado

Dallas opened the season at 11-15-3. They went 30-13-10 since. And their drive to the cup has only picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Their only bump in the road came when Marty Turco had to pay a four game suspension for trying to use his stick as a hatchet to Edmonton Ryan Smyth’s mouth. If you ever needed to be shown how valuable a top net minder is to a team you didn’t need to look any farther than the four games the Stars lost in his absence. Marty Turco is another candidate to carry his team far into the playoffs. And the four game vacation he received could pay dividends down the stretch after he had logged 72 of his team’s 77 games played.

With all the talent Colorado has how can this team be such underachievers? Even if this team wins their last game at home against the Predators, (as I write this), they will only finish the season 5 games over .500 at home, (20-15-6) I’ll tell you one truth. If they can’t take care of the Stars at the Pepsi Center they sure as hell won’t fair any better down at the big “D”.

The loss of Alex Tanguay is an important key and the playoff pressure for the inexperienced David Aebischer convinces me to back Dallas.

Stars in seven.



THE BEASTS OF THE EAST

New York Islanders / Tampa Bay

I said at one point to look out for the Islanders. And I still say it.

In one corner you have a team that barely hung on to even make the playoffs. In the other you have a team that has been on fire ever since the beginning of the year and walked away with the top seed in the conference. It has been a magical year for the Lightning. So why do I have this uneasy feeling about their dream turning into a nightmare?

Why? Rick DiPietro. He’s the real deal folks. This guy was the first goalie EVER to be taken as the first overall pick. I’m talking the entire history of the NHL! His stats wont boggle any minds but much of his talent is not isolated to between the pipes. His arsenal includes some the best puck handling skills and skating ability that can make the difference between winning and losing and won’t show up in any statistical log.

The Islanders finally are healthy, (with the exception of Jason Blake), and with players like Yashin, Parrish, Hunter, Peca, and Czerkawski the Bolts better not be looking past this team. New York has won three of four this year against Tampa Bay.

All this being said…Tampa Bay is one powerful team and they may not get to the cup finals this year but I don’t see them losing this first round matchup. They didn’t record 106 points by chance.


Lightning in five.



Montreal / Boston


Two of the original six meet with a storied history. Montreal is dangerous because of Jose Theodore.

In the six games played between these two they have averaged 2.6 total goals. Not per team…per game.
This series will be a slug fest. A heavyweight bout between two contenders for the belt.

In this corner wearing the gold with black trim is Andrew Raaaaaaaycroft. And in this corner with the red trunks and blue trim is Jose Theeeeeooodore! ….. Let’s get ready to rummMBBLLE.

If the Tampa Bay Lightning weren’t the hottest team in the league since January 1 then it clearly would be the Boston Bruins. They can play bruising. They can finesse. They can for check and wear you down. Or they can skate and pass with speed and accuracy. Much of my choice here depends on the health of Joe Thornton. If a goalie is a front line pitcher to a hockey team then Joe would be Barry Bonds. When you need the clutch two run dinger in the bottom of the ninth Joe Thornton will deliver it into the bay.

The only real weakness this team had was a average power play. The addition of Sergei Gonchar took care of that. Now if they can only shed the ghosts of Stanley Cup pasts and put a couple series together this is my dark horse choice to win the east.

Bruins in six.



New Jersey / Philadelphia

Martin Brodeur vs. Sean Burke or Robert Esche?

This will be the only time I’ll be going against the trend of backing the better goalie. Because if you can’t compare these goalies and keep any kind of rational argument in favor of the Flyers. Trust me I’ve tried. I can’t even convince myself.

I heard something the other night and it made me wonder. I guess it was reported in one of the New York tabloids that, (Dan Aykroyd look a like), Pat Burns had lost his team. When he was asked if he had, he said, “If I have, then how do we have 100 points”?
When a couple players were asked they responded with no comment. Hmmmmm

To me this was never Pat Burns team anyway. It has always been Scott Stevens. But Scott is still no longer here and this is not last year’s New Jersey Devils.

In my mind the only advantage the Devils have over the Flyers is in net. The difference in this series will be Jeremy Roenick and Keith Primeau back for the Flyers and Scott Stevens not for the Devils. A goalie is only as good as his supporting cast and the difference between those three players in the lineup or not means far more than just goals and assists.

I don’t know how, maybe with their superior power play, maybe the Flyers will never let the Devils take the early lead so they can’t apply that vaunted trap defense. I don’t know…..but the Flyers will win this series.

Now all I have to do is convince myself.

Flyers in seven.



Ottawa / Toronto

Ohhh baby hold onto your hats. This one has all the markings of a long, painful, and exhaustive series. One thing I’ll tell you right here and now is whoever makes it out of this round will not win the next. They’ll have nothing left.

Much has been made of Toronto’s aged team. Poor old timers ready for social security checks and bingo parlors to spend them in. Perhaps they have a couple years on the up starts from the other side of the valley, (or province), but they also have experience and take it from one that knows. There are some advantages to maturity.

Grand daddy Ed Belfour will carry this team on his decrepit back. It might be his swan song but how can you argue against a guy who has played in 148 post season games and allows only 2.17 goals against.

Ottawa will need a solid performance from Patrick Lalime to have any shot in this series and he has played well in the post season with a 1.73 GAA but the bottom line is he and the Senators have only won 18 while losing 16 with him in the net.

Player for player these teams have very equal squads. Ottawa’s demise will be it’s old nemesis. Toronto will be more physical and slowly beat this team up…..and out.

(last seven meetings between these two has seen the visiting team win five)

Leafs in seven
 

Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling
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good Post Vic,,,,, Very good post,,,

tater
 

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I'll fade Crazy Jackass Ivan.

The loss of Bertuzzi is overestimated, as is the Islandersr regular season record against TB.

Also like the Leafs with their huge goaltending advantage and the fact they get seven home games if necessary.
 

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chach post your playoff plays ASAP - need some good fades...I gotta back up some bets from my VWAGER account on your $5 bets....

waiting for your posts...
 

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Calgary +155 Series looks really nice.

Vic, I'd love to take the Wings vs. Nas but at -800? That's a spiiicy meatball. Sharks -180 looks like money.

Thanks for the writeup.

sharp.
 
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by CrAzY Jivin' IvaN:
chach post your playoff plays ASAP - need some good fades...I gotta back up some bets from my VWAGER account on your $5 bets....

waiting for your posts...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Oh please you are probably the king of $5 bets.
 

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