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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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And then there was four. But the real question is how many of us would have said in September that the Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks, Calgary Flames, and the Philadelphia Flyers would be playing hockey in May? I can certainly tell you that I wouldn’t have been one of them.

One thing is for sure when you look at these four teams. You won’t confuse this year’s conference finals and Stanley cup with the recent past. No Jersey slowdown and no trapping defenses here. These games should be exciting, fast, and scoring opportunities will abound. But if you start to think that the “overs” should be a lock don’t forget who’s between the pipes.

Isn’t it amazing that when you look at these finalists for the cup one thing stands out. It’s no coincidence that the four best, (or at least hottest), goalies are there. Kiprusoff, Nabokov, Khabibulin, and Esche. Sounds like a legal defense team from St. Petersburg. Talk about real heavy hitters. “One call, and that’s All”

Okay time to blow a personal horn or two.

My Round Two Predictions…..Actual Finish

Detroit in Five……………………..Calgary in Six
Tampa Bay in Five…………………Tampa Bay in Four
San Jose in Seven…………………..San Jose in Six
Philadelphia in Six………………….Philadelphia in Six

Of the twelve playoff match-ups so far in the first two rounds I have correctly picked nine. Nearly perfect in three of the four in round two but I have to admit I couldn’t have been more wrong with my one bad pick. And I couldn’t be happier about it either. With both the Avalanche and the Red Wings eliminated from the playoffs it truly is anyone’s championship to win. All four of these teams are capable of posing for that Kodak moment with Lord Stanley’s Cup in a very short time.

Two of these teams have never been to the conference finals in their existence. One more hasn’t for fifteen years. The last to have been here will be the first to exit.


TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING…..in Five

(Tampa holds a 4-0 regular season edge against Philadelphia)

Will the real Robert Esche please stand up?

Robert Esche has given Philly a second life. Without him and they would not have made it this far. But make no mistake about it, he was far from impenetrable. Although the two teams he faced were of slightly better caliber than the ones Tampa Bay faced he still allowed 9 goals to the Devils in 5 games and then allowed 13 goals to Toronto in 6. Meanwhile the “Bulin Wall” lived up to his name pitching 4 shutouts in his 9 games allowing a total of 10 goals and compiling a 8-1 record. When you consider he, (and the Lightning defense), did this against the league’s fifth highest scoring offense in the league, (Islanders), and the 16th, (Canadians), these numbers gain larger meaning.

With the combination of Khabibulin in net and the third most potent offense in the NHL for the regular season, (2.99 GPG) / top ranked offense in the post season, (2.89 GPG), throwing pucks at Esche at every opportunity I believe this series will mirror the Lightning’s first two. The Flyers can not match their speed, passing , and scorers coming at you from every line that coach Tortorella puts on the ice. You can see these guys having fun out there simply embarrassing the league’s best. This team is the future. This team is the one you’ll be talking about for years to come. This is the beginning of a dynasty. Enjoy it. Believe it.

This series will be David versus Goliath. The only way the Flyers can win this thing is to simply beat up the Bolts with their distinct size advantage. Montreal tried to do the same and take the Lightning out of their game plan. All the trash talk and cheap shots didn’t change a thing. Tampa Bay won four straight. Their speed is unmatched and will prove to be the difference again here.

Oh and Robert Esche?….please sit down.



SAN JOSE SHARKS ……..in Seven

(regular series tied at 2-2 with the home team winning every game)

This one is not such a easy selection. Two teams that have all equal and similar components. Team speed, superior goaltending, and without an abundance of superstar eye catching tabloid type of names, still talented throughout their lineups. Then there’s that home ice advantage. In this corner you have those towel waving crazies creating a deafening din at the Shark Tank and in the other a sea of red that is second only to the rating on the Richter scale created at the Saddledome. Both sites have to be considered a thirty cent swing on the odds makers money line.

I find it hard to pick who is the better tender. Miika Kiprusoff would have to be given the slight edge if I was forced to pick but it would be a difficult choice. The Sharks net minder Evgeni Nabokov held Colorado to 7 goals in their six games. If he can shut out the deep and offensively talented Avalanche you must wonder what can he do for an encore against the Flames who finished 19th (in a 30 team league), for goals scored averaging 2.44 per game.


The Flames have Jerome Iginla and overtime magician Martin Gelinas. The Sharks counter with Mike Ricci, Patick Marleau, Jonathan Cheechoo, and Vincent Damphouse.

The special teams are in favor of San Jose. Calgary had all kinds of trouble scoring on the power play recording 7 goals in their 61chances against Vancouver and Detroit in these playoffs. Although they did improve on a porous penalty kill in their last four games against Detroit. After allowing 11 goals in 51 shorthanded situations to Vancouver and Detroit they didn’t allow any in the last four versus the Red Wings. In fact they only were shorthanded 11 times in those four games.

In the Sharks 11 games versus the Blues and Avalanche in the post season they allowed only 4 power play goals in 49 chances. In turn they scored 8 times in 56 power plays.

This series should be one great one to watch but when it’s all said and done I believe the Sharks are deeper, have better special teams and then there’s those four home games to the Flames three.

Looks like a Sharks/Bolts Stanley Cup final from where I sit.
 

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Vegas....Your points are well taken, and speed is very hard to beat. But if the Flyers can steal a game in TB, I think it will be a long series. You don't think the Hitch factor can even push it to six? It would be a bitter disappointment if the Flyers bow out in five. But we are used to it here, and it wouldn't surprise me.

If you are right, Eagles training camp is only a couple months away. If you are wrong, we will have another "Rocky" story!


BOL
GP
icon_cool.gif
 

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Take heart Gary...it's not only you that has a problem with my selection.
http://www.easports.com/games/nhl2004/stanleycupsim.jsp

I agree that the Flyers will go deep if they take one in Tampa. But they haven't beaten this team in four tries this year, Tampa has won seven straight in the post season, comes off two relative easy series while the Flyers have needed to battle throughout,Tampa has by far the better goalie,and in my opinion the deeper team. (certainly younger and healthier as well) I don't see the Flyers winning in Tampa. If I'm right Philly would need to win four of five and that ain't happening!

Then again, I picked a Philly/San Jose final with the Flyers carrying off the cup on Luke's radio show "Bet On It" before the playoffs began so I guess I have all the bases covered in this one! Now watch Calgary win.
1053174822.gif


Good luck and enjoy the games.
 

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Mr.Vic, calgary is looking perty strong right now but, i picked SJ and i'm not gonna waiver on my pick at all because everytime i do that i always talk myself out of a winner.
 
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What did NJ slow down? The Flyers play the same system on D as NJ does. The old Montreal teams used to play the same way. It is called defense.
 

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i've never played series bets before, but have been kicking myself since not following that "gut feeling" i had about the flames having a shot to move-on past detroit and value in the line....

i took TB -145 and CGY +135 today.

bolts are too good not to lay a little wood on, and the flames are playing like they're "destined".

just for fun, i'd guess 'ning in 5, fire in 7.

glta
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Mr NJ Sports:
What did NJ slow down? The Flyers play the same system on D as NJ does. The old Montreal teams used to play the same way. It is called defense.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No offense intended Mr. NJ, (both in the game and to you)...My point was that this will be a very different style of play than we've seen from the recent past. San Jose as well has the game plan of getting the early lead and sitting on the blue line forcing the opposition to dump it in. It is a winning reciepe but it is Boring! It has contributed to the decline of interest, fan base, and subsequent failure of the NHL to be considered one of the “four major” sports. Arena football regularly has a larger viewing audience than hockey. The sport needs to be more exciting to survive. Not put people to sleep. Teams like Tampa Bay is what the sport needs and I hope they set the trend for the future. If there is a future for the NHL.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bigboydan:
Mr.Vic, calgary is looking perty strong right now but, i picked SJ and i'm not gonna waiver on my pick at all because everytime i do that i always talk myself out of a winner.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Stick to your guns Dan. Calgary is the popular play but they just won their Stanley Cup agianst Detroit. Igilna is perhaps the best player in the league but he does not have the horses around him that the Sharks have throughout their roster. They are deeper and will outlast the Flames. This should be a great seven game series.
 
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Vic
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Im just kidding ,I am a Devils fan and it would annoy the hell out of me when everyone would whine about them playing D and winning .

These Calgary games have been the best games all playoffs long. The Vancouver series was outstanding and so was the Detroit series. Good team speed all over the ice in this series also and just enough shaky defensmen (1 or 2)to let the goalies do their thing also.
 

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Vic, great write up, but i have to go against you on this one. I have been extremely hot with the NHL playoffs as well, and besides the NFL playoffs this is my favorite time of year to bet. I like the Flyers in a long series because of their size and toughness, but it could easily go the other way. I also def like the Flames in the West, they have not been a fluke, as Kiprusoff is not getting lucky like Giguere did last year. This guy is for real. With both goalies very hot, this should be a very low scoring series. I see the Flames in a long series, but again in Hockey we know anything can happen. Good luck with the picks..
 

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Thanks hardcorecap. I never thought that Kiprusoff was winning lucky or the Flames are a fluke.I've been a believer and backer of both the team and goalie since December. They made me much money this year! One thing that surprised me though in yesterday's game was the open stlye of play, and with the post game interview assurances that they will continue to play the same way in game two, I'll be looking to go over the number.

I believe we just saw, in two opening games, a microcosm of both series. There is no doubt in my mind that the Calgary/San Jose set will go seven and may even go down to the final shot. I still feel that Tampa Bay will get stronger, constantly throw pucks at Esche, and the difference between these two goaltenders and teams will prove evident.

Savant you still there??? Any thoughts???
 

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im, here vic, am staying silent as I am also afraid that the Flyers may have too much that they bargained for with the bolts....

The perception is of course that ESCHE was masterful in the first two series & I however (as you) still do not have full confidence in the goaltender....Yes he has been good...but has he been great? I cannot say that he has...If anything the other 3 goaltenders remaining have been better than him...

Some will call me crazy, but if it were up to me...I would go with BURKE tonite....when they got him the thought was to have a # 1 playoff man...then ESCHE stole the job...ESCHE should be thanked for the job he has done but the FLYERS need to make a drastic move & fast...the goaltending change may energize the team & may be the only solace they have left...If burke could come in & steal a game that would be HUGE....Of course I am aware that the likelehood of this happening are only about 5%...only chance we may see BURKE is if the Flyers drop 0-2 tonite....Personally though...I beleive tonite is the night that the move should be made...I beleive BURKE will be up for the challenge.

Now don't get me wrong, I am not writing off the FLYERS yet....We all know that goaltending will win games in these playoffs, however, that is not the only thing. POWER FORWARDS can also prove to be a big lethal weapon....we have seen this with SUNDIN, PRIMEAU & ROENICK in these playoffs. The FLYERS must get in Front of the BOLTS goaltender at all costs...I would like to see the speedier players on the point (recchi, zhamnov, gagne) on the point aswell during the Power Plays...Yes the Flyers will have to take some chances. They must draw the focus in front by crashing the net, hopefully freeing up some people who can take the screened shots at the Bhulin Wall. This I fear is the only way he will be beat.

In terms of Tonite's ODDS on the game here is what I like

Philly + 140....

now I don't really beleive the Flyers have a better chance than winning than the BOLTS....But I would say they have at least a 45% chance of taking this game making the odds of +140 slightly favor the Flyers, however only slightly...It may be a small play for me but that is it.

THe Total at OVER 4.5 -115 is also what I might favor in this game. After all, all you need is 2 goals by each team....
 

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Vic,

I suppose you've answered this question earlier, but I'm curious as to why you're not posting individual game plays any longer?

I had every intention on playing the under the entire series with Cal/Sj just because I made a mint going under the number with each of their respective series. What inclination did you get from the post game interviews that leads you to believe the series will be played 'wide open'?

Think I'm going to grab the 'Bolts tonight and lay the chalk. Tampa came out really flat in game 1 and were lucky to hang in as long as they did, but I think they realize that this isn't a fluke, and they'll re-double their efforts. Also, it never hurts that stars Leclair and Recchi have been invisible while second tier forwards Richards and Modin have been amazing.

sharp.

Btw, how's baseball treating you?
 

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Hey Sharp,
I haven’t been posting because I haven’t been playing the NHL that much, (if at all). But I have been watching the games waiting for any quality plays that might pop up. Frankly it’s a lot easier finding some gems with a full regular season schedule every night than these few playoff games where every game seems to come down to one fortunate bounce of the puck. I’m just not willing to lay money on the black and hope the ball finds it way onto the right number of the roulette wheel. My future bets on San Jose to win the cup and Tampa Bay for the conference and cup are enough to keep me financially interested.

That being said I am already down on the over tomorrow night with Pinny at 4.5 +113. I believe that the shots will come fast and furious again and this type of play is guaranteed to produce some goals .

From NHL.com:
As usual, much of the credit for Calgary's success in Game 1 must rest at the feet of goalie Miika Kiprusoff, who made 49 saves in the contest. San Jose's 52 shots were a franchise playoff record for the Sharks, obliterating the previous mark of 43.
"We've got more where that came from,'' said Ron Wilson, the Sharks coach. "It's disappointing to lose the game the way we did, on kind of a detail thing, a bad change. ... With 52 shots, I think we could have had 62 shots. We'll play the same way the next game, take our chances."

Baseball has been very profitable for me so far and I'm confident that the fortune will continue.


Savant ….glad to hear you’re around even if keeping a low profile. I agree with your assessment on the Flyers game plan and that a change of goalies would jump start this team but then you have to wonder how sharp Burke would be at this point after sitting for nearly a month. If Tampa takes a early tonight you may get your wish. If Philly doesn’t win this game it will be too little too late no matter what they do in game three.
 

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Vegas....The Flyers are alive and kicking. They stole a game like I felt they needed to. The Bulin wall crumbled tonight. Flyers coming home with a lot of confidence. This is fun!

GP
 
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How bad was that 1st goal???? Oh my god. Flyers fans are used to seeing those go in against them in the playoffs. That was the end of the game right there.
 

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Agreed Mr. NJ.....the ESPN announcer said, Habi "was looking for the pass"???? Give me a break! He was caught asleep and it set the tone for the entire game.

Something tells me Savant was loving it.
applaudit.gif
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Gary_Philly:
Vegas....The Flyers are alive and kicking. They stole a game like I felt they needed to. The Bulin wall crumbled tonight. Flyers coming home with a lot of confidence. This is fun!

GP<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

yeah okay, (Vic say's grudgingly), you guys beat us up pretty bad but with the theme of "Rocky" playing in our ears we come to the city of brotherly love and have visions of payback. Something tells me the Bolts aren't down for the count.
 

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Come on Vic! "You guys beat us pretty bad but." I'm not gonna say the series is over, but at least admit you didn't respect the Flyers. The Bolts are the more talented team with the better goalie, but the Flyers aren't gonna just roll over and hand them the trophy.
Your coach, Mr T has started a media chess match with Hitch, LOL. It sounded like desperation to me.
Welcome to The City of Brotherly Shove Bolt backers. You guys better win one, or it will be over!


GLTA
Gary
 

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