DAL/PHI ^55
Ah, here it is, the biggest bet(s) I've ever made. The Philadelphia Eagles over, the Loyola Marymount of the NFL world. Well, they're not that prolific offensively, but that's their MO.
In Chip's first year the Eagles went 10-6 and made the playoffs but old Chippy didn't have his light-it-up style in place yet. They went 9-7 on the over, but at home they were a poor 3-5 on the over. In Chip's 2nd year the Eagles went 11-5 on the over, going 6-2 for the home over.
2013:....9-7
2014:..11-5 .......... 20-12 for the over in 2 seasons (pre/playoffs excluded) [62.5%]
2015:..10-6? ......... I believe the Eagles will go 10-6 on the over so Chip can secure that 30-18 [62.5%]
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In the 2 games that went under at home last year we had the case of the Giants' drubbing to the tune of 27-0. The Eagles went up 20-0 at HT and would've scored 40+, but when another team lays down the leading home team goes into offensive shutdown mode. It's just the way it works in the NFL.
The 2nd home under for the Eagles was when the Eagles were led by Mark Sanchez against the defensive-minded team, the Seahawks. When Sanchez is at the helm, hotdogs will be eaten on the sideline, dicks will be sucked in the locker room and all types of havoc will be wreaked on sides/totals/money lines.
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The Eagles finished 3rd in pts in 2014. Just 8 pts behind the Pats and 12 pts behind the Pack. This is Chip, this is the Eagles, and this is what they do. More importantly, the Eagles were #1 in proportion to pts scored to pts conceded. The Eagles gave up a whopping 400 pts in 2014, and they were the only team above .500 to give up such a whopping total. No other quality team came close.
What does this mean for tomorrow? Well, we're looking at a Philly team coming off a loss trying not to go 0-2. They only scored 24 pts last week (but this was against an ATL team that I expect will be defensively strong and give up low point totals at home) in a poor performance. At home they'll definitely get 31+.
But this will also be a competitive game. If it's competitive, DAL will get their pts and it will go over. If it's a blowout, DAL will still get their pts (b/c Philly concedes) and 20+ by the Cowboys will easily do the trick in a blowout. The Cowboys went 8-0 SU on the road 2014 and were 7-1 OVER on the road. The over correlated b/c the Cowboys won and forced the home teams to push up towards their total.
Eagles here with a minimum of 34 points.
Cowboys here with a minimum of 21 points.
Expect 31+ points in the 1st half. Worst-case scenario would be 24, but I believe they'll dump in 31-38 in the 1H. The game should be tight in the 2nd half, forcing both teams to react and counter with points to stay in it. But again, if Philly goes supernova on Dallas, this is okay b/c Dallas will still get their pts and it will go over.
LOWEST TOTAL: 31-24
EXPECTED EST.: 35-27
HIGH RANGE....: 41-31
Ah, here it is, the biggest bet(s) I've ever made. The Philadelphia Eagles over, the Loyola Marymount of the NFL world. Well, they're not that prolific offensively, but that's their MO.
In Chip's first year the Eagles went 10-6 and made the playoffs but old Chippy didn't have his light-it-up style in place yet. They went 9-7 on the over, but at home they were a poor 3-5 on the over. In Chip's 2nd year the Eagles went 11-5 on the over, going 6-2 for the home over.
2013:....9-7
2014:..11-5 .......... 20-12 for the over in 2 seasons (pre/playoffs excluded) [62.5%]
2015:..10-6? ......... I believe the Eagles will go 10-6 on the over so Chip can secure that 30-18 [62.5%]
---------------
In the 2 games that went under at home last year we had the case of the Giants' drubbing to the tune of 27-0. The Eagles went up 20-0 at HT and would've scored 40+, but when another team lays down the leading home team goes into offensive shutdown mode. It's just the way it works in the NFL.
The 2nd home under for the Eagles was when the Eagles were led by Mark Sanchez against the defensive-minded team, the Seahawks. When Sanchez is at the helm, hotdogs will be eaten on the sideline, dicks will be sucked in the locker room and all types of havoc will be wreaked on sides/totals/money lines.
---------------
The Eagles finished 3rd in pts in 2014. Just 8 pts behind the Pats and 12 pts behind the Pack. This is Chip, this is the Eagles, and this is what they do. More importantly, the Eagles were #1 in proportion to pts scored to pts conceded. The Eagles gave up a whopping 400 pts in 2014, and they were the only team above .500 to give up such a whopping total. No other quality team came close.
What does this mean for tomorrow? Well, we're looking at a Philly team coming off a loss trying not to go 0-2. They only scored 24 pts last week (but this was against an ATL team that I expect will be defensively strong and give up low point totals at home) in a poor performance. At home they'll definitely get 31+.
But this will also be a competitive game. If it's competitive, DAL will get their pts and it will go over. If it's a blowout, DAL will still get their pts (b/c Philly concedes) and 20+ by the Cowboys will easily do the trick in a blowout. The Cowboys went 8-0 SU on the road 2014 and were 7-1 OVER on the road. The over correlated b/c the Cowboys won and forced the home teams to push up towards their total.
Eagles here with a minimum of 34 points.
Cowboys here with a minimum of 21 points.
Expect 31+ points in the 1st half. Worst-case scenario would be 24, but I believe they'll dump in 31-38 in the 1H. The game should be tight in the 2nd half, forcing both teams to react and counter with points to stay in it. But again, if Philly goes supernova on Dallas, this is okay b/c Dallas will still get their pts and it will go over.
LOWEST TOTAL: 31-24
EXPECTED EST.: 35-27
HIGH RANGE....: 41-31
$$$$
