I went just 2-2 on my best bets last week but did go 10-5-1 ats on all side opinions, including the best bets. Hopefully that other analysis helped some.
I consider this week to be much more dangerous than week one because we have now seen all teams play and sometimes too much emphasis is put on game one. Remember whom each team played. Some teams played much easier opponents and might have better looking numbers this week. At any rate, be careful and realize there are still 15 more weeks left of regular season football after this week.
Home team in caps.
Miami –3 NY JETS 37
The Jets looked like the Jets at the beginning of last year when Vinny was their quarterback. Last year with Vinny at the helm, they scored 37 points in week one, followed by 7 and 3 point performances. In that 37 point performance, 13 points were scored on kick off returns for touchdowns, so it wasn’t even as good as it might seem. Last week, they actually out did themselves by scoring 13 points against Washington. In their last four games with Vinny quarterbacking (three last year and one this year), the Jets have averaged 15 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game, while giving up 30 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game. With Pennington at qb, they averaged 24 points per game against teams allowing 23 points per game and allowed 18 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game. If I listed the yards per rush and per pass, you would see the same dichotomy. The point is this team just can’t move the ball with Vinny in there and their defense suffers as well. And it doesn’t appear anything has changed because the Jets only had 158 total yards last week against Washington, while allowing 327 total yards at 5.4 yards per play. The Jets averaged 3.4 yards per play. One of those teams they played last year with Vinny was Miami. The Dolphins dominated the game in winning 30-3. Granted the game was in Miami, but the Jets simply couldn’t move the ball. Miami had their own problems last week. It wasn’t just that they lost to Houston, it was the way they lost the game that raises some eyebrows. David Carr was sacked 77 times last year. Last Sunday, David Carr wasn’t sacked once against what is supposed to be a Super Bowl defense. Last year Houston averaged 216 yards per game. Last week Houston gained a whopping 393 yards at 6.0 yards per play. Either Dom Capers was sandbagging it during the preseason (which I’m sure he was to some degree) or this Dolphins defense isn’t as good as we might all think. Miami gave up 8.3 yards per pass last week and even if you take out the long pass to Corey Bradford (78 yard pass), they still averaged 6.1 yards per pass, which is much better than the 4.0 they averaged last year. Miami did lose at NY last year but that was with Ray Lucas. The loser of this game will be 0-2 and I just can’t see the Dolphins letting them selves fall to 0-2. The Jets don’t want to fall to 0-2 either but they might not be able to do anything about it. As long as this line stays at –3 or lower, the Dolphins qualify in an early season situation, which is 60-26-4. They also qualify in a terrific fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 and a subset of that which is 227-131-11. Just too much going their way to not win this game. If they win, they most likely cover as well. MIAMI 27 NY JETS 11
BALTIMORE –2 Cleveland 40.5
This is a very tough game for me to call. I thought, going into the season, the Cleveland defense was below average and most people thought the Baltimore defense was going to be outstanding this year. Both of those may come true, but not based on last week’s performances. Cleveland held Payton Manning and Company to just 271 total yards at 4.6 yards per play, including only 204 yards passing at 4.6 yards per pass. That’s a far cry from the 6.5 yards per pass Indy averaged last year. The Cleveland offense was pretty average, gaining 280 yards at 5.1 yards per play. Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the Baltimore defense was allowing the Steelers to pass all over the field, gaining 339 total yards for 5.2 yards per play. The total yards and yards per play numbers aren’t that bad. But they allowed 241 yards passing for 7.5 yards per pass and that was shocking. On offense, with Kyle Boller making his first start, Baltimore only gained 231 yards at 3.4 yards per play. Cleveland has won in Baltimore each of the last two years and they qualify in a 60-26-4 early season situation. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s poor defensive performance last week, sets them up in a negative 85-138-9 situation including a 52-108-7 subset of that situation. But, Baltimore did stop the rush last week, while rushing the ball a little themselves (allowed 3.0 and gained 3.8 ypr). In Cleveland, the Browns were struggling rushing the ball and stopping the rush (gained only 3.8 ypr and allowed 4.5 ypr). That effort sets Baltimore up in a 489-380-29 fundamental rushing situation, including a 303-205-15 subset. My different sets of numbers suggest, both a high scoring game and a lower scoring game, so the total is a tough call. The spread seems to favor Cleveland and the situation slightly favors them as well. Tough call but I will lean with Cleveland until Boller can show me a little more. CLEVELAND 23 BALTIMORE 20
INDIANAPOLIS –2 Tennessee 44
Tennessee looked very good last week against Oakland in some areas and not quite so good in some other areas. The Titans passed for 269 yards at 6.9 yards per pass last week but struggled to run the ball again, gaining just 76 yards at 2.7 ypr. They held a very good Oakland passing attack to just 6.1 yards per pass but overall, for the game, Oakland gained more yards per play than Tennessee, out-gaining them 5.6 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play. I’m not sure what happened to Indy last week. Their offense was pathetic, gaining just 271 yards for 4.6 yards per play. Tennessee would appear to be the better team and they have beaten Indy the last three times they have played them, which includes a home and home set last year, winning here by the score of 23-15 and beat Indy in 1999, 19-16 in the playoffs here. So, Tennessee has certainly beaten Indy when they have had decent teams. Indy does qualify in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is an outstanding 129-54-6. While that situation is incredibly strong and does very well in week two, I have to see more before I can play Indy in this spot. I lean towards Indy in this game because of the situation, but past history is enough to keep me off of this game. Although history suggests these contests have been a little lower scoring than this total, my numbers suggest a slightly higher scoring game. INDIANAPOLIS 26 TENNESSEE 21
GREEN BAY –6.5 Detroit 46
If there were ever some misleading scores from last week, these two teams represented games where the final scores were a bit misleading. You can make a case that the Vikings dominated GB, and the final numbers were simply a result of Minnesota going to a zone defense in the second half, and the Packers accumulated some yardage because of that. But it’s pretty hard to come up with any excuses for Detroit in their game. Let’s put it this way. If I told you GB allowed 5.0 yards per play and 337 total yards to Minnesota last week, knowing the Vikings averaged 5.7 yards per play last year and 387 total yards, you might think the GB defense actually played above average. And if I told you Detroit allowed a whopping 6.5 yards per play and 439 total yards to Arizona, who averaged just 4.6 yppl and 285 yards per game last year, that wouldn’t look too good. The Lions defense gave up huge chunks of yards, allowing Arizona to rush for 4.8 ypr and pass for 7.2 yps and 344 yards passing. That shouldn’t surprise anyone because Detroit allowed 6.8 yps last year against teams who averaged only 5.7 yps. The only way Detroit can stop someone from throwing the ball on them is if, well, all of their receivers are hurt. What? Oh, that is what happened to GB. It still won’t matter. If the numbers were so good for GB and so bad for Detroit, why was GB down 27-3 and Detroit won 42-24? Turnovers and special teams baby. GB turned the ball over five times to only three for Minnesota. Besides Minnesota out playing GB at the line of scrimmage, they also benefited from the turnovers. That’s something that killed Minnesota last year and greatly helped GB last year. For the Lions, they benefited from a +3 turnover margin and also returned a punt for a touchdown and returned an interception for a touchdown. There are times when one teams simply matches up very well against another team and this is one of those situations. The closest Detroit has come at Lambeau within the last 10 years is eight points. The last two years saw GB win rather easily. GB might be coming back to the pack a little and Detroit might be improving, but the gap hasn’t closed that much. Yes, the Packers are hurting at receiver, but they picked up Antonio Freeman this week and that will help Brett Favre an awful lot. Minnesota was a team that had played the Packers very tough at home in each of the past six seasons. Detroit isn’t that team. GB qualifies in a very solid 120-67-4 bounce back situation. While GB might be just an average team, Detroit is still well below average and I saw nothing last week that would change my mind. Only four of the past ten contests in GB have totaled more than 46 points. This game qualifies in a very solid 75-40-3 under situation. My numbers suggest about 47 points if I use all games from last year and only about 35 points if I use just the final five games from last year. The situation favors the under and with the Packers hurting at receiver this week, they may decide to run the ball a little more. GREEN BAY 26 DETROIT 17
ATLANTA –3 Washington 39.5
I had Dallas last week against Atlanta and lost that game, of course. But, much of what I expected to happen did, in fact, happen. I thought Atlanta would give up some yardage and they did just that. Atlanta surrendered 403 total yards for 6.8 yards per play. Yes, you could take away the 49 yard touchdown pass and the 63 yard touchdown run, but they still averaged 4.9 yards per play, which would then be about average. The point being I don’t think the Atlanta defense is any better than the defense that allowed 5.4 yards play last year against teams averaging just 5.1 yards per play. The Atlanta offense did move the ball a little better than I thought they would against Dallas. They didn’t run the ball very well, gaining just 98 yards at 3.3 yards per rush. I pointed out last week that Atlanta’s rushing numbers were not very good when you took out Michael Vick’s numbers, as they only averaged 3.9 ypr without Vick. But, Atlanta did throw the ball pretty well, averaging 7.6 yards per pass. For Washington, well, it’s hard to say just how good their defense is because they faced the hapless Jets last week. The Washington rush defense was a little better than average last year but their pass defense was outstanding, allowing 5.3 yards per pass against teams averaging 5.8 yards per pass. Last week they only allowed 4.0 yps but it was against the Jets. Atlanta does qualify in a 102-60-11 home momentum situation, including a subset of that, which is an outstanding 63-20-6. On the other side, Washington does qualify in a 489-380-29 fundamental rushing situation, including a 303-205-15 subset of that. My numbers favor Atlanta but they are based on Vick. It’s tough to side with a Washington team that I don’t think is that good, but I do like their match-up, which should be able to stop the Atlanta passing game, especially without one of their main receivers, Brian Finneran, who is out for a few weeks. WASHINGTON 24 ATLANTA 23
Buffalo –2.5 JACKSONVILLE 43
An outstanding game played by Buffalo last week. Are they that good or were they just overly hyped up for New England, because of Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy, etc? Only time will tell. For the game, the Bills out averaged NE, 5.1 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play. They had some problems running the ball, averaging only 3.2 yards per rush, but they did average a very healthy 7.2 yards per pass. The Buffalo defense held NE to just 239 yards and a measly 134 yards passing at 3.6 yards per pass. They did allow 5.0 ypr and 105 yards rushing. The Jacksonville score was a little misleading because stat wise they dominated their game with Carolina. I was very surprised to see them put up 23 points on the Carolina defense. But they also gained 331 yards at 5.6 yards per play, which is fantastic against the Carolina defense. And who needs Jimmy Smith, when you can pass for 256 yards at a whopping 8.3 yards per pass. On defense, they held Carolina in check, limiting them to just 242 yards and 4.0 yards per play. The Carolina offense isn’t that good so that might not be saying much but what the Jacksonville offense did was amazing. They did allow Carolina to rush for 122 yards at 4.5 yards per rush, which is a little concerning. This is a tough game to call for me but Buffalo does qualify in an early season situation that is 60-26-4. My numbers favor Jacksonville slightly. Even though the situation favors Buffalo, I’m not quite ready to give them the nod when laying points on the road. I have to see a little more from them before I’m completely sold on their resurgence. JACKSONVILLE 23 BUFFALO 21
NEW ORLEANS –8 Houston 40.5
Either Houston pulled off the biggest upset of the year last week or they are much, much better than most people thought. Their upset win wasn’t fluky like when they beat Pittsburgh last year and only gained about 40 yards for the entire game but lived off of turnovers. They beat Miami fair and square, out gaining Miami 393 yards to 301 yards and 6.0 yards per play to 5.4 yards per play. They held their own rushing the ball, gaining 3.7 yards per rush, which was a modest improvement over their 3.2 ypr average of last year. They gained an outstanding 8.3 yards per pass, which was a huge improvement over their 4.0 yards per pass of last year. And they didn’t allow one sack, which was amazing. New Orleans lost their game pretty badly, based on the score, but the stats suggest a little closer game. The Saints averaged 4.8 yards per play and only allowed Seattle to gain 4.6 yards per play. NO did allow Seattle to rush for 151 yards at 4.6 yards per rush so that might be a little concerning but they also lost the turnover battle, 0-4, which created most of their problems. A banged up Joe Horn didn’t help their cause either. But, with all that said, NO allowed 20 or more points in their first 15 games last year, before allowing only 10 points to Carolina in a season ending loss and allowed 20+ points again last week. That’s a pretty tough way to make a living when laying points and NO is now 0-7 ats the last seven times they have laid six or more points. And Dom Capers is now 12-5 when getting more than seven points on the road. Just too many points to be laying when there are still too many questions not answered about NO. NEW ORLEANS 21 HOUSTON 17
ST LOUIS –3 San Francisco 47
Either SF is the best team in the NFL this year or Chicago is the worse team. Actually, neither is probably true and the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. Remember, teams are never as good as they appeared to be the previous week nor are they as bad as they appeared to be the previous week. With all that said, I’m still not sure St. Louis is a very good team. People think the Packers are beginning their fall and trying to live off their reputation. The Rams might be falling into the same category. This team has lost a lot of its key ingredients, which has caused a big problem with their depth. The Rams did nothing to impress me last week. They gained 355 yards at 4.8 yards per play, which is below average and allowed 336 yards but at 6.1 yards per play, which is well below average. The Rams couldn’t run the ball, averaging just 3.1 yards per rush and couldn’t stop the Giants from rushing the ball, allowing 149 yards at 5.5 yards per rush. St. Louis passed the ball for very average numbers, at 5.2 yards per pass and allowed the Giants to throw for 6.7 yards per pass. The supposedly great offensive line of the Rams allowed a whopping six sacks and the Rams turned the ball over four times. At the same time, don’t get too caught up with SF’s numbers against the Bears. Let’s face it, Chicago is not a very good team right now and their offensive line is in shambles. And despite scoring 49 points, the 49ers offensive numbers were very average, gaining 391 yards but at only 5.1 yards per play. It’s pretty hard not to score 49 points when the other team keeps giving you the ball deep in their own territory. The Bears turned the ball over five times last week. I don’t think the SF defense is that good but they did hold Chicago to a measly 127 yards of total offense and 2.2 yards per play. Last year, SF beat the Rams rather handily in SF and lost the last game of the season in St. Louis. But, Marucci took most of his starters out of the game rather early. Before that, SF had a lead on the Rams. I’m not a Mike Martz fan and although I don’t think SF is that good of a team, I still think they are better than St. Louis, at least right now. SF qualifies in an early season situation, which is 60-26-4 as well as a solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is an outstanding 129-54-6. My numbers support SF in this one and I’ll take what I perceive to be the better team, at this point in the season, getting points. SAN FRANCISCO 23 ST LOUIS 20
KANSAS CITY –3 Pittsburgh 47.5
This might be the best game on the card Sunday. Two very explosive offenses against a pretty good defense in Pittsburgh and an improving defense in KC. No question the Pittsburgh defense is better than the KC defense but the KC offense is also better than the Pittsburgh offense and the game is in KC. The Pittsburgh offense was actually pretty average last week , gaining 339 yards at 5.2 yards per play, but the fact they did it against the Baltimore defense, is impressive enough. But, when you have an offense like Baltimore, with a rookie quarterback, that can’t move the ball, it puts an awful lot of pressure on the Baltimore defense. Too much pressure that they couldn’t over come. Pittsburgh didn’t run the ball very effectively last week , gaining just 98 yards at 3.0 yards per rush. They did pass for a very solid 241 yards at 7.5 yards per pass. The KC offense picked up right where it left off last year before Priest Holmes got hurt. Last week they gained 390 yards at 5.8 yards per play against a below average SD defense. But, more impressive was their defense, which allowed just 232 yards at 4.3 yards per play. The Steelers offensive line has had problems all preseason and now during the first game trying to run the ball. They won’t be able to simply live off the pass in Arrowhead Stadium. It will be way too loud for them to get the snap off and not have KC defenders in the backfield before they know it. Pitt allowed three sacks last week and KC had three sacks of their own against SD last week. The KC offense is simply too balanced for Pittsburgh to try and stop just one phase. For KC, I’m sure they will take away the Pittsburgh rushing game, which shouldn’t be too difficult, and then use their crowd advantage to make it very difficult for Pittsburgh to operate their offense. KC qualifies in a very solid home momentum situation, which is 102-60-11 and they qualify in a subset of that, which is an incredible 63-20-6. That situation only applies if KC is laying –3 points or less. KC also qualifies in a terrific fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is an outstanding 129-54-6. My numbers also support KC by at least six points in this game, giving us solid value with the home team. The numbers also predict a rather high scoring game, but I caution all total players. There is an extremely solid under situation applying to this game which is 74-42-3 and this game qualifies in a subset of that which is a terrific 52-17-2. It’s an early season under situation that has been terrific over the years. I would stay away from the total in this game. I’m very aware of Bill Cowher’s 27-17-2 ats record as a road dog or pick ‘em. But that record is only 13-12 if the opponent won their last game and just 3-5 if their opponent won their last game at home. So, this game doesn’t appear to set up in Cowher’s best role as a road dog or pick ‘em. Just too much offensive balance from KC and a good enough defense to keep the Pittsburgh offense in check. KANSAS CITY 27 PITTSBURGH 17
TAMPA BAY –10 Carolina 34.5
I’m not sure when people are going to start respecting this TB team. They didn’t get the respect they deserved in the NFC Championship game last year, nor the Super Bowl and then the same disrespect came again last week in Philadelphia. There was no way TB was going to be able to function with Philly opening up their new stadium, the non-believers said. Well, when you give the best defense over the last 20 seasons (and, yes, TB had a better defense than the ’85 Bears and the ’00 Ravens) points to play with, you are asking for trouble. And people disrespect the TB offense. This is a very solid offense and they passed for 6.6 yards per pass last week. The offense will continue to only get better. Take out the games Johnson didn’t play in last year and this offense was the third best offense over the last half of the season, giving way only to the Giants and Raiders. What was a little disturbing for TB last week was allowing Philly to rush for 7.6 yards per rush. I realize about 50 of those yards came on the James Thrash play, but even if you take out those yards, they still allowed about 4.7 yards per rush. Their pass defense, which was so good last year, played just as well in this game, allowing just 3.1 yards per pass and a measly 124 yards. TB did have trouble rushing the ball, gaining just 90 yards at 2.9 ypr and that could be a problem for them this year. What surprised me the most with the Carolina game was their defense actually surrendered 331 yards, 5.6 yards per play and 23 points. They rushed the ball very well, gaining 122 yards rushing at 4.5 yards per rush but their pass offense was non-existent, gaining just 120 yards for 3.5 yards per pass. That spells trouble against a great TB pass defense. Carolina played TB tough at home last year, losing 6-9 but TB was without Johnson in that game. In the game at TB, they lost 10-23 but the game was much closer than the final score. Simply put though, Carolina couldn’t move the ball against the TB defense. I don’t see anything different in this game. Carolina does qualify in a solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 and a subset of that which is 303-205-15. My numbers actually favor TB in this game, winning it by around 14-16 points but the situation favors Carolina and this figures to be a low scoring game. Any bad breaks for TB and it will be difficult to cover the large spread. A lean towards Carolina. TAMPA BAY 17 CAROLINA 10
Seattle –5 ARIZONA 44.5
I’m a big believer in Seattle this year and their defense looks to possibly be improved over last year. Ray Rhodes is now their defensive coordinator and should be able to work his magic. Seattle’s score last week was a little misleading because they benefited from a +4 turnover margin. They were out-gained and out-averaged in last week’s game against New Orleans, 270-359 and 4.6 yppl to 4.8 yppl. The did rush the ball quite effectively, gaining 151 yards at 4.6 ypr but they also allowed NO to rush for 103 yards at 4.1 ypr, which is about average, but I expect the big Arizona offensive line to be able to move the ball on the ground against Seattle. Seattle is also hurting in the secondary, although it didn’t seem to bother them last week as they only allowed NO to gain 5.1 yps. I’ve already documented in the Detroit/GB write-up how badly Arizona out played Detroit last week, from a stats perspective, but turnovers did the Cardinals in as they were –3 in the turnover department. Home pick ‘ems to dogs who were –2 or worse in turnover margin in their last game versus teams who were >=+2 in turnover margin in their last game are 79-51-3 ats since 1983. While that situation isn’t strong enough for me to play Arizona, they do qualify in a subset of that, which is 34-8. Arizona also qualifies in a couple of bounce back situations, which are 59-27-2 and 116-62-3, including a subset of that, which is 43-12-0. The biggest concern for Arizona is they are down to just a few wide receivers. But, Seattle is only playing with four receivers on their roster this year as well. Mike Holmgren felt he had too many good running backs that he didn’t want to lose, so he is going with fewer receivers. I had the over in last week’s game for both of these teams and won one and lost one. Seattle ran the ball 56% of the time last week. Part of that was due to them having a big lead but I think Holmgren might be running the ball a little more this year to keep his receivers fresh. And it will be hot in Arizona this Sunday. This game has all the makings of a high scoring game but my numbers conflict on this game, with one set predicting about 54 points but the other set predicting only 43 points. With the possibility of both teams wanting to run the ball, I can’t make a play on the over. The situations are ripe for an Arizona upset. Seattle did beat Arizona last year, 27-6, but they benefited from five turnovers. And other than that game, Seattle never won a road game by more than six points last year. This is a much improved Seattle team this year but I think the linemaker has over adjusted their week one performance and over estimated the week one Arizona performance, based on scores alone. SEATTLE 24 ARIZONA 23
PHILADELPHIA –5.5 New England 37.5
Both of these teams turned in awful performances last week. NE gained just 239 yards on offense at 4.1 yppl and Philly gained just 245 yards of offense at 4.9 yppl. Both defenses actually played decent, allowing only 5.1 yppl for Buffalo and 4.9 yppl for TB. Both teams ran the ball somewhat effectively but neither team could pass the ball. I have no situations favoring either team here and, quite frankly, don’t have much of an opinion on either of these teams. There is a very solid 75-40-3 week two under situation, which also qualifies in a subset, that is 43-17-2. My final numbers on this game conflict as well, predicting about 35 points and about 46 points, so it’s tough to make a call on the total as well. Philly is hurting a little on defense, both in the secondary and on the defensive line and NE just lost lb Ted Johnson for a little while as well. When in doubt about two teams, I prefer to take the dog, but I do so reluctantly. PHILADELPHIA 17 NEW ENGLAND 14
Denver –3 SAN DIEGO 43
Another tough game for me to call. SD qualifies in a couple of bounce back situations, which are 59-27-2 and 116-62-3, including a subset of that which is 43-12-0. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is 129-54-6. But as impressive as the final score was in the Denver game last week, 30-10, their numbers weren’t that impressive. They did stop the Cincinnati run, allowing the Bengals to only rush for 51 yards at 2.3 ypr and Denver ran the ball for 184 yards at 4.6 ypr, themselves. But Jake Plummer threw three interceptions and the Broncos only passed for 109 yards at 4.2 yps. Meanwhile, they allowed a decent Cincinnati passing offense to throw for 243 yards at 5.9 yps. For the game, Cincinnati actually out-gained Denver 294-293 and 4.7 yppl to just 4.4 yppl for Denver. For SD, their defense really started to slip last year and it was no different in game one against KC. The Chargers allowed KC to rush for 131 yards at 4.1 ypr and pass for 259 yards at 7.4 yps. And the SD offense was no where to be found, gaining just 232 yards at 4.3 yppl, including only 64 yards rushing at 3.6 ypr. I’m sure they will make some adjustments this week but it looks like David Boston may not play, and they will face a very stout Denver rush defense. I just don’t see how they will be able to move the ball and no matter how ineffective Jake Plummer might be, the SD defense just isn’t good enough to stop Denver on a consistent basis. DENVER 23 SAN DIEGO 17
OAKLAND –12.5 Cincinnati 45
Oh, the Bungles. More of the same last week, losing badly in their home opener and turning the ball over four times, including a Kitna back handed attempt to pass the ball under heavy pressure, out of his own endzone, which was picked out of the air for and returned for a touchdown. Some things never change. As I said in the Denver analysis, Cincinnati actually played pretty decently, from a stats perspective, last week, out-gaining and out-averaging Denver. But it’s the mistakes that kill the Bengals, time and time again. This week they face a very good Raiders team who lost at Tennessee last week, despite playing a solid game. But Oakland is still without Jerry Porter and Rod Woodson will also miss this game. Cincinnati can throw the ball, which is always good when you are trying to come from behind. And the Raiders qualify in a negative scheduling situation, with their big game against Tennessee last week and a possible look ahead to Denver next week. That situation is 66-115-2 and goes against Oakland in this game. While my numbers support Oakland to win this game by close to 20 points, I will ride with the situation, thinking Oakland just wants to get out of town with a win and move on to next week. And, like I said, Cincinnati can throw the ball, which always leaves the back door open. This game also qualifies in a week two under situation which is 75-40-3 to the under. My final points prediction range from about 47 points to about 55 points so there is no value in the under. Probably a good game to stay away from. This game seems to have ‘square’ written all over it with the favorite and the over. OAKLAND 27 CINCINNATI 14
MINNESOTA –8 Chicago 45
Oh, the Bears. How bad did they look last week? Wow! They gained but 127 yards at 2.2 yppl. Lost in their 7-49 debacle was their defensive effort, which wasn’t that bad. They only allowed SF to gain 391 yards but at only 5.1 yppl, which is very average. Their problem was five turnovers, that kept giving the ball to SF in great field position. The Bears only score came on a SF turnover that gave the Bears great field position. Meanwhile, the Vikings were beating the Packers pretty handily themselves. But the Vikings were beneficial of five Packer turnovers themselves. Let’s face it. If you take away the ball five times from your opponent or give away the ball five times to your opponent, the games aren’t going to be very close games. And I doubt that will continue. It just doesn’t work that way. While it’s very hard to figure out how Chicago is going to move the ball, the Bears defense was pretty solid last week and the Vikings offense did what they had to do but they were just average, gaining just 5.0 yppl last week. This is a tough side to call. It’s very hard to take a team that just may not score, although let’s not give the Vikings defense too much credit yet. They were pretty bad last year and have improved. How much have they improved is still to be determined. There is a contrarian situation that favors the Bears in this game but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. The last two years this game has been very low scoring in Minnesota, 6-13 and 7-25. This game actually sets up in a couple of different under situations, which are 286-216-11 and a week two under situation, which is 43-17-2. The problem with the under, for me, is I predict about 49 points being scored in this game, which means all the value has been sucked out of this total, which is now down to 45 and even 44.5 in some places. I would consider the under if I could get the total back to the 47 and 48 range but not quite this low. I’ll side with all the points until I see a consistent effort on defense from the Vikings and recommend looking to the under before the over in this game. The Bears are really hurting on the offensive line and Mike Tice has said he thinks they really only have one decent offensive lineman, which is their center, especially after they lost Rex Tucker during the preseason. He also said he expects the Bears to try and run the ball, given all of their offensive problems right now. MINNESOTA 24 CHICAGO17
NY GIANTS –7.5 Dallas 37
Well, some things haven’t changed yet in Dallas and some things have changed. The Cowboys and Quincy Carter still made some costly mistakes last week. But they also connected on some big plays, which the offense failed to do last year and actually moved the ball quite well at times. Dallas gained 403 yards at 6.8 yppl and even though about 100 of those yards came on two different plays, they still would have averaged about 5.3 yppl without those two big plays. So they did some things right on offense. Their defense didn’t play as well as I thought they would have and that is a concern. They allowed Atlanta 318 yards at 5.4 yppl. That’s not terrible but not up to the standard the Cowboys played last year and not good enough, considering their offense just isn’t that good yet. They’ll face a very good Giants team that I predicted to win this division and played very well last week, gaining 6.1 yards per play and allowing the Rams to only gain 4.8 yards per play. I have no situations on this game and there are a couple of under situations applying to this game but they don’t fit the better subsets and I’m not sure there is enough value on the total to play the under. If this total were at about 43 or so, I would consider the under. As for the side, I will lean with the team I think is playing better right now and that is the Giants. NY GIANTS 24 DALLAS 10
I am going to stick with 2% plays for at least one more week until I have a more definite read on these teams.
BEST BETS
YTD 2-2 –0.4%
2% MIAMI –3
2% SAN FRANCISCO +3
2% KANSAS CITY –3 (No higher than –3)
2% ARIZONA +5
I consider this week to be much more dangerous than week one because we have now seen all teams play and sometimes too much emphasis is put on game one. Remember whom each team played. Some teams played much easier opponents and might have better looking numbers this week. At any rate, be careful and realize there are still 15 more weeks left of regular season football after this week.
Home team in caps.
Miami –3 NY JETS 37
The Jets looked like the Jets at the beginning of last year when Vinny was their quarterback. Last year with Vinny at the helm, they scored 37 points in week one, followed by 7 and 3 point performances. In that 37 point performance, 13 points were scored on kick off returns for touchdowns, so it wasn’t even as good as it might seem. Last week, they actually out did themselves by scoring 13 points against Washington. In their last four games with Vinny quarterbacking (three last year and one this year), the Jets have averaged 15 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game, while giving up 30 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game. With Pennington at qb, they averaged 24 points per game against teams allowing 23 points per game and allowed 18 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game. If I listed the yards per rush and per pass, you would see the same dichotomy. The point is this team just can’t move the ball with Vinny in there and their defense suffers as well. And it doesn’t appear anything has changed because the Jets only had 158 total yards last week against Washington, while allowing 327 total yards at 5.4 yards per play. The Jets averaged 3.4 yards per play. One of those teams they played last year with Vinny was Miami. The Dolphins dominated the game in winning 30-3. Granted the game was in Miami, but the Jets simply couldn’t move the ball. Miami had their own problems last week. It wasn’t just that they lost to Houston, it was the way they lost the game that raises some eyebrows. David Carr was sacked 77 times last year. Last Sunday, David Carr wasn’t sacked once against what is supposed to be a Super Bowl defense. Last year Houston averaged 216 yards per game. Last week Houston gained a whopping 393 yards at 6.0 yards per play. Either Dom Capers was sandbagging it during the preseason (which I’m sure he was to some degree) or this Dolphins defense isn’t as good as we might all think. Miami gave up 8.3 yards per pass last week and even if you take out the long pass to Corey Bradford (78 yard pass), they still averaged 6.1 yards per pass, which is much better than the 4.0 they averaged last year. Miami did lose at NY last year but that was with Ray Lucas. The loser of this game will be 0-2 and I just can’t see the Dolphins letting them selves fall to 0-2. The Jets don’t want to fall to 0-2 either but they might not be able to do anything about it. As long as this line stays at –3 or lower, the Dolphins qualify in an early season situation, which is 60-26-4. They also qualify in a terrific fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 and a subset of that which is 227-131-11. Just too much going their way to not win this game. If they win, they most likely cover as well. MIAMI 27 NY JETS 11
BALTIMORE –2 Cleveland 40.5
This is a very tough game for me to call. I thought, going into the season, the Cleveland defense was below average and most people thought the Baltimore defense was going to be outstanding this year. Both of those may come true, but not based on last week’s performances. Cleveland held Payton Manning and Company to just 271 total yards at 4.6 yards per play, including only 204 yards passing at 4.6 yards per pass. That’s a far cry from the 6.5 yards per pass Indy averaged last year. The Cleveland offense was pretty average, gaining 280 yards at 5.1 yards per play. Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the Baltimore defense was allowing the Steelers to pass all over the field, gaining 339 total yards for 5.2 yards per play. The total yards and yards per play numbers aren’t that bad. But they allowed 241 yards passing for 7.5 yards per pass and that was shocking. On offense, with Kyle Boller making his first start, Baltimore only gained 231 yards at 3.4 yards per play. Cleveland has won in Baltimore each of the last two years and they qualify in a 60-26-4 early season situation. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s poor defensive performance last week, sets them up in a negative 85-138-9 situation including a 52-108-7 subset of that situation. But, Baltimore did stop the rush last week, while rushing the ball a little themselves (allowed 3.0 and gained 3.8 ypr). In Cleveland, the Browns were struggling rushing the ball and stopping the rush (gained only 3.8 ypr and allowed 4.5 ypr). That effort sets Baltimore up in a 489-380-29 fundamental rushing situation, including a 303-205-15 subset. My different sets of numbers suggest, both a high scoring game and a lower scoring game, so the total is a tough call. The spread seems to favor Cleveland and the situation slightly favors them as well. Tough call but I will lean with Cleveland until Boller can show me a little more. CLEVELAND 23 BALTIMORE 20
INDIANAPOLIS –2 Tennessee 44
Tennessee looked very good last week against Oakland in some areas and not quite so good in some other areas. The Titans passed for 269 yards at 6.9 yards per pass last week but struggled to run the ball again, gaining just 76 yards at 2.7 ypr. They held a very good Oakland passing attack to just 6.1 yards per pass but overall, for the game, Oakland gained more yards per play than Tennessee, out-gaining them 5.6 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play. I’m not sure what happened to Indy last week. Their offense was pathetic, gaining just 271 yards for 4.6 yards per play. Tennessee would appear to be the better team and they have beaten Indy the last three times they have played them, which includes a home and home set last year, winning here by the score of 23-15 and beat Indy in 1999, 19-16 in the playoffs here. So, Tennessee has certainly beaten Indy when they have had decent teams. Indy does qualify in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is an outstanding 129-54-6. While that situation is incredibly strong and does very well in week two, I have to see more before I can play Indy in this spot. I lean towards Indy in this game because of the situation, but past history is enough to keep me off of this game. Although history suggests these contests have been a little lower scoring than this total, my numbers suggest a slightly higher scoring game. INDIANAPOLIS 26 TENNESSEE 21
GREEN BAY –6.5 Detroit 46
If there were ever some misleading scores from last week, these two teams represented games where the final scores were a bit misleading. You can make a case that the Vikings dominated GB, and the final numbers were simply a result of Minnesota going to a zone defense in the second half, and the Packers accumulated some yardage because of that. But it’s pretty hard to come up with any excuses for Detroit in their game. Let’s put it this way. If I told you GB allowed 5.0 yards per play and 337 total yards to Minnesota last week, knowing the Vikings averaged 5.7 yards per play last year and 387 total yards, you might think the GB defense actually played above average. And if I told you Detroit allowed a whopping 6.5 yards per play and 439 total yards to Arizona, who averaged just 4.6 yppl and 285 yards per game last year, that wouldn’t look too good. The Lions defense gave up huge chunks of yards, allowing Arizona to rush for 4.8 ypr and pass for 7.2 yps and 344 yards passing. That shouldn’t surprise anyone because Detroit allowed 6.8 yps last year against teams who averaged only 5.7 yps. The only way Detroit can stop someone from throwing the ball on them is if, well, all of their receivers are hurt. What? Oh, that is what happened to GB. It still won’t matter. If the numbers were so good for GB and so bad for Detroit, why was GB down 27-3 and Detroit won 42-24? Turnovers and special teams baby. GB turned the ball over five times to only three for Minnesota. Besides Minnesota out playing GB at the line of scrimmage, they also benefited from the turnovers. That’s something that killed Minnesota last year and greatly helped GB last year. For the Lions, they benefited from a +3 turnover margin and also returned a punt for a touchdown and returned an interception for a touchdown. There are times when one teams simply matches up very well against another team and this is one of those situations. The closest Detroit has come at Lambeau within the last 10 years is eight points. The last two years saw GB win rather easily. GB might be coming back to the pack a little and Detroit might be improving, but the gap hasn’t closed that much. Yes, the Packers are hurting at receiver, but they picked up Antonio Freeman this week and that will help Brett Favre an awful lot. Minnesota was a team that had played the Packers very tough at home in each of the past six seasons. Detroit isn’t that team. GB qualifies in a very solid 120-67-4 bounce back situation. While GB might be just an average team, Detroit is still well below average and I saw nothing last week that would change my mind. Only four of the past ten contests in GB have totaled more than 46 points. This game qualifies in a very solid 75-40-3 under situation. My numbers suggest about 47 points if I use all games from last year and only about 35 points if I use just the final five games from last year. The situation favors the under and with the Packers hurting at receiver this week, they may decide to run the ball a little more. GREEN BAY 26 DETROIT 17
ATLANTA –3 Washington 39.5
I had Dallas last week against Atlanta and lost that game, of course. But, much of what I expected to happen did, in fact, happen. I thought Atlanta would give up some yardage and they did just that. Atlanta surrendered 403 total yards for 6.8 yards per play. Yes, you could take away the 49 yard touchdown pass and the 63 yard touchdown run, but they still averaged 4.9 yards per play, which would then be about average. The point being I don’t think the Atlanta defense is any better than the defense that allowed 5.4 yards play last year against teams averaging just 5.1 yards per play. The Atlanta offense did move the ball a little better than I thought they would against Dallas. They didn’t run the ball very well, gaining just 98 yards at 3.3 yards per rush. I pointed out last week that Atlanta’s rushing numbers were not very good when you took out Michael Vick’s numbers, as they only averaged 3.9 ypr without Vick. But, Atlanta did throw the ball pretty well, averaging 7.6 yards per pass. For Washington, well, it’s hard to say just how good their defense is because they faced the hapless Jets last week. The Washington rush defense was a little better than average last year but their pass defense was outstanding, allowing 5.3 yards per pass against teams averaging 5.8 yards per pass. Last week they only allowed 4.0 yps but it was against the Jets. Atlanta does qualify in a 102-60-11 home momentum situation, including a subset of that, which is an outstanding 63-20-6. On the other side, Washington does qualify in a 489-380-29 fundamental rushing situation, including a 303-205-15 subset of that. My numbers favor Atlanta but they are based on Vick. It’s tough to side with a Washington team that I don’t think is that good, but I do like their match-up, which should be able to stop the Atlanta passing game, especially without one of their main receivers, Brian Finneran, who is out for a few weeks. WASHINGTON 24 ATLANTA 23
Buffalo –2.5 JACKSONVILLE 43
An outstanding game played by Buffalo last week. Are they that good or were they just overly hyped up for New England, because of Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy, etc? Only time will tell. For the game, the Bills out averaged NE, 5.1 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play. They had some problems running the ball, averaging only 3.2 yards per rush, but they did average a very healthy 7.2 yards per pass. The Buffalo defense held NE to just 239 yards and a measly 134 yards passing at 3.6 yards per pass. They did allow 5.0 ypr and 105 yards rushing. The Jacksonville score was a little misleading because stat wise they dominated their game with Carolina. I was very surprised to see them put up 23 points on the Carolina defense. But they also gained 331 yards at 5.6 yards per play, which is fantastic against the Carolina defense. And who needs Jimmy Smith, when you can pass for 256 yards at a whopping 8.3 yards per pass. On defense, they held Carolina in check, limiting them to just 242 yards and 4.0 yards per play. The Carolina offense isn’t that good so that might not be saying much but what the Jacksonville offense did was amazing. They did allow Carolina to rush for 122 yards at 4.5 yards per rush, which is a little concerning. This is a tough game to call for me but Buffalo does qualify in an early season situation that is 60-26-4. My numbers favor Jacksonville slightly. Even though the situation favors Buffalo, I’m not quite ready to give them the nod when laying points on the road. I have to see a little more from them before I’m completely sold on their resurgence. JACKSONVILLE 23 BUFFALO 21
NEW ORLEANS –8 Houston 40.5
Either Houston pulled off the biggest upset of the year last week or they are much, much better than most people thought. Their upset win wasn’t fluky like when they beat Pittsburgh last year and only gained about 40 yards for the entire game but lived off of turnovers. They beat Miami fair and square, out gaining Miami 393 yards to 301 yards and 6.0 yards per play to 5.4 yards per play. They held their own rushing the ball, gaining 3.7 yards per rush, which was a modest improvement over their 3.2 ypr average of last year. They gained an outstanding 8.3 yards per pass, which was a huge improvement over their 4.0 yards per pass of last year. And they didn’t allow one sack, which was amazing. New Orleans lost their game pretty badly, based on the score, but the stats suggest a little closer game. The Saints averaged 4.8 yards per play and only allowed Seattle to gain 4.6 yards per play. NO did allow Seattle to rush for 151 yards at 4.6 yards per rush so that might be a little concerning but they also lost the turnover battle, 0-4, which created most of their problems. A banged up Joe Horn didn’t help their cause either. But, with all that said, NO allowed 20 or more points in their first 15 games last year, before allowing only 10 points to Carolina in a season ending loss and allowed 20+ points again last week. That’s a pretty tough way to make a living when laying points and NO is now 0-7 ats the last seven times they have laid six or more points. And Dom Capers is now 12-5 when getting more than seven points on the road. Just too many points to be laying when there are still too many questions not answered about NO. NEW ORLEANS 21 HOUSTON 17
ST LOUIS –3 San Francisco 47
Either SF is the best team in the NFL this year or Chicago is the worse team. Actually, neither is probably true and the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. Remember, teams are never as good as they appeared to be the previous week nor are they as bad as they appeared to be the previous week. With all that said, I’m still not sure St. Louis is a very good team. People think the Packers are beginning their fall and trying to live off their reputation. The Rams might be falling into the same category. This team has lost a lot of its key ingredients, which has caused a big problem with their depth. The Rams did nothing to impress me last week. They gained 355 yards at 4.8 yards per play, which is below average and allowed 336 yards but at 6.1 yards per play, which is well below average. The Rams couldn’t run the ball, averaging just 3.1 yards per rush and couldn’t stop the Giants from rushing the ball, allowing 149 yards at 5.5 yards per rush. St. Louis passed the ball for very average numbers, at 5.2 yards per pass and allowed the Giants to throw for 6.7 yards per pass. The supposedly great offensive line of the Rams allowed a whopping six sacks and the Rams turned the ball over four times. At the same time, don’t get too caught up with SF’s numbers against the Bears. Let’s face it, Chicago is not a very good team right now and their offensive line is in shambles. And despite scoring 49 points, the 49ers offensive numbers were very average, gaining 391 yards but at only 5.1 yards per play. It’s pretty hard not to score 49 points when the other team keeps giving you the ball deep in their own territory. The Bears turned the ball over five times last week. I don’t think the SF defense is that good but they did hold Chicago to a measly 127 yards of total offense and 2.2 yards per play. Last year, SF beat the Rams rather handily in SF and lost the last game of the season in St. Louis. But, Marucci took most of his starters out of the game rather early. Before that, SF had a lead on the Rams. I’m not a Mike Martz fan and although I don’t think SF is that good of a team, I still think they are better than St. Louis, at least right now. SF qualifies in an early season situation, which is 60-26-4 as well as a solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is an outstanding 129-54-6. My numbers support SF in this one and I’ll take what I perceive to be the better team, at this point in the season, getting points. SAN FRANCISCO 23 ST LOUIS 20
KANSAS CITY –3 Pittsburgh 47.5
This might be the best game on the card Sunday. Two very explosive offenses against a pretty good defense in Pittsburgh and an improving defense in KC. No question the Pittsburgh defense is better than the KC defense but the KC offense is also better than the Pittsburgh offense and the game is in KC. The Pittsburgh offense was actually pretty average last week , gaining 339 yards at 5.2 yards per play, but the fact they did it against the Baltimore defense, is impressive enough. But, when you have an offense like Baltimore, with a rookie quarterback, that can’t move the ball, it puts an awful lot of pressure on the Baltimore defense. Too much pressure that they couldn’t over come. Pittsburgh didn’t run the ball very effectively last week , gaining just 98 yards at 3.0 yards per rush. They did pass for a very solid 241 yards at 7.5 yards per pass. The KC offense picked up right where it left off last year before Priest Holmes got hurt. Last week they gained 390 yards at 5.8 yards per play against a below average SD defense. But, more impressive was their defense, which allowed just 232 yards at 4.3 yards per play. The Steelers offensive line has had problems all preseason and now during the first game trying to run the ball. They won’t be able to simply live off the pass in Arrowhead Stadium. It will be way too loud for them to get the snap off and not have KC defenders in the backfield before they know it. Pitt allowed three sacks last week and KC had three sacks of their own against SD last week. The KC offense is simply too balanced for Pittsburgh to try and stop just one phase. For KC, I’m sure they will take away the Pittsburgh rushing game, which shouldn’t be too difficult, and then use their crowd advantage to make it very difficult for Pittsburgh to operate their offense. KC qualifies in a very solid home momentum situation, which is 102-60-11 and they qualify in a subset of that, which is an incredible 63-20-6. That situation only applies if KC is laying –3 points or less. KC also qualifies in a terrific fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is an outstanding 129-54-6. My numbers also support KC by at least six points in this game, giving us solid value with the home team. The numbers also predict a rather high scoring game, but I caution all total players. There is an extremely solid under situation applying to this game which is 74-42-3 and this game qualifies in a subset of that which is a terrific 52-17-2. It’s an early season under situation that has been terrific over the years. I would stay away from the total in this game. I’m very aware of Bill Cowher’s 27-17-2 ats record as a road dog or pick ‘em. But that record is only 13-12 if the opponent won their last game and just 3-5 if their opponent won their last game at home. So, this game doesn’t appear to set up in Cowher’s best role as a road dog or pick ‘em. Just too much offensive balance from KC and a good enough defense to keep the Pittsburgh offense in check. KANSAS CITY 27 PITTSBURGH 17
TAMPA BAY –10 Carolina 34.5
I’m not sure when people are going to start respecting this TB team. They didn’t get the respect they deserved in the NFC Championship game last year, nor the Super Bowl and then the same disrespect came again last week in Philadelphia. There was no way TB was going to be able to function with Philly opening up their new stadium, the non-believers said. Well, when you give the best defense over the last 20 seasons (and, yes, TB had a better defense than the ’85 Bears and the ’00 Ravens) points to play with, you are asking for trouble. And people disrespect the TB offense. This is a very solid offense and they passed for 6.6 yards per pass last week. The offense will continue to only get better. Take out the games Johnson didn’t play in last year and this offense was the third best offense over the last half of the season, giving way only to the Giants and Raiders. What was a little disturbing for TB last week was allowing Philly to rush for 7.6 yards per rush. I realize about 50 of those yards came on the James Thrash play, but even if you take out those yards, they still allowed about 4.7 yards per rush. Their pass defense, which was so good last year, played just as well in this game, allowing just 3.1 yards per pass and a measly 124 yards. TB did have trouble rushing the ball, gaining just 90 yards at 2.9 ypr and that could be a problem for them this year. What surprised me the most with the Carolina game was their defense actually surrendered 331 yards, 5.6 yards per play and 23 points. They rushed the ball very well, gaining 122 yards rushing at 4.5 yards per rush but their pass offense was non-existent, gaining just 120 yards for 3.5 yards per pass. That spells trouble against a great TB pass defense. Carolina played TB tough at home last year, losing 6-9 but TB was without Johnson in that game. In the game at TB, they lost 10-23 but the game was much closer than the final score. Simply put though, Carolina couldn’t move the ball against the TB defense. I don’t see anything different in this game. Carolina does qualify in a solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29 and a subset of that which is 303-205-15. My numbers actually favor TB in this game, winning it by around 14-16 points but the situation favors Carolina and this figures to be a low scoring game. Any bad breaks for TB and it will be difficult to cover the large spread. A lean towards Carolina. TAMPA BAY 17 CAROLINA 10
Seattle –5 ARIZONA 44.5
I’m a big believer in Seattle this year and their defense looks to possibly be improved over last year. Ray Rhodes is now their defensive coordinator and should be able to work his magic. Seattle’s score last week was a little misleading because they benefited from a +4 turnover margin. They were out-gained and out-averaged in last week’s game against New Orleans, 270-359 and 4.6 yppl to 4.8 yppl. The did rush the ball quite effectively, gaining 151 yards at 4.6 ypr but they also allowed NO to rush for 103 yards at 4.1 ypr, which is about average, but I expect the big Arizona offensive line to be able to move the ball on the ground against Seattle. Seattle is also hurting in the secondary, although it didn’t seem to bother them last week as they only allowed NO to gain 5.1 yps. I’ve already documented in the Detroit/GB write-up how badly Arizona out played Detroit last week, from a stats perspective, but turnovers did the Cardinals in as they were –3 in the turnover department. Home pick ‘ems to dogs who were –2 or worse in turnover margin in their last game versus teams who were >=+2 in turnover margin in their last game are 79-51-3 ats since 1983. While that situation isn’t strong enough for me to play Arizona, they do qualify in a subset of that, which is 34-8. Arizona also qualifies in a couple of bounce back situations, which are 59-27-2 and 116-62-3, including a subset of that, which is 43-12-0. The biggest concern for Arizona is they are down to just a few wide receivers. But, Seattle is only playing with four receivers on their roster this year as well. Mike Holmgren felt he had too many good running backs that he didn’t want to lose, so he is going with fewer receivers. I had the over in last week’s game for both of these teams and won one and lost one. Seattle ran the ball 56% of the time last week. Part of that was due to them having a big lead but I think Holmgren might be running the ball a little more this year to keep his receivers fresh. And it will be hot in Arizona this Sunday. This game has all the makings of a high scoring game but my numbers conflict on this game, with one set predicting about 54 points but the other set predicting only 43 points. With the possibility of both teams wanting to run the ball, I can’t make a play on the over. The situations are ripe for an Arizona upset. Seattle did beat Arizona last year, 27-6, but they benefited from five turnovers. And other than that game, Seattle never won a road game by more than six points last year. This is a much improved Seattle team this year but I think the linemaker has over adjusted their week one performance and over estimated the week one Arizona performance, based on scores alone. SEATTLE 24 ARIZONA 23
PHILADELPHIA –5.5 New England 37.5
Both of these teams turned in awful performances last week. NE gained just 239 yards on offense at 4.1 yppl and Philly gained just 245 yards of offense at 4.9 yppl. Both defenses actually played decent, allowing only 5.1 yppl for Buffalo and 4.9 yppl for TB. Both teams ran the ball somewhat effectively but neither team could pass the ball. I have no situations favoring either team here and, quite frankly, don’t have much of an opinion on either of these teams. There is a very solid 75-40-3 week two under situation, which also qualifies in a subset, that is 43-17-2. My final numbers on this game conflict as well, predicting about 35 points and about 46 points, so it’s tough to make a call on the total as well. Philly is hurting a little on defense, both in the secondary and on the defensive line and NE just lost lb Ted Johnson for a little while as well. When in doubt about two teams, I prefer to take the dog, but I do so reluctantly. PHILADELPHIA 17 NEW ENGLAND 14
Denver –3 SAN DIEGO 43
Another tough game for me to call. SD qualifies in a couple of bounce back situations, which are 59-27-2 and 116-62-3, including a subset of that which is 43-12-0. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 489-380-29, including the best subset of that situation, which is 129-54-6. But as impressive as the final score was in the Denver game last week, 30-10, their numbers weren’t that impressive. They did stop the Cincinnati run, allowing the Bengals to only rush for 51 yards at 2.3 ypr and Denver ran the ball for 184 yards at 4.6 ypr, themselves. But Jake Plummer threw three interceptions and the Broncos only passed for 109 yards at 4.2 yps. Meanwhile, they allowed a decent Cincinnati passing offense to throw for 243 yards at 5.9 yps. For the game, Cincinnati actually out-gained Denver 294-293 and 4.7 yppl to just 4.4 yppl for Denver. For SD, their defense really started to slip last year and it was no different in game one against KC. The Chargers allowed KC to rush for 131 yards at 4.1 ypr and pass for 259 yards at 7.4 yps. And the SD offense was no where to be found, gaining just 232 yards at 4.3 yppl, including only 64 yards rushing at 3.6 ypr. I’m sure they will make some adjustments this week but it looks like David Boston may not play, and they will face a very stout Denver rush defense. I just don’t see how they will be able to move the ball and no matter how ineffective Jake Plummer might be, the SD defense just isn’t good enough to stop Denver on a consistent basis. DENVER 23 SAN DIEGO 17
OAKLAND –12.5 Cincinnati 45
Oh, the Bungles. More of the same last week, losing badly in their home opener and turning the ball over four times, including a Kitna back handed attempt to pass the ball under heavy pressure, out of his own endzone, which was picked out of the air for and returned for a touchdown. Some things never change. As I said in the Denver analysis, Cincinnati actually played pretty decently, from a stats perspective, last week, out-gaining and out-averaging Denver. But it’s the mistakes that kill the Bengals, time and time again. This week they face a very good Raiders team who lost at Tennessee last week, despite playing a solid game. But Oakland is still without Jerry Porter and Rod Woodson will also miss this game. Cincinnati can throw the ball, which is always good when you are trying to come from behind. And the Raiders qualify in a negative scheduling situation, with their big game against Tennessee last week and a possible look ahead to Denver next week. That situation is 66-115-2 and goes against Oakland in this game. While my numbers support Oakland to win this game by close to 20 points, I will ride with the situation, thinking Oakland just wants to get out of town with a win and move on to next week. And, like I said, Cincinnati can throw the ball, which always leaves the back door open. This game also qualifies in a week two under situation which is 75-40-3 to the under. My final points prediction range from about 47 points to about 55 points so there is no value in the under. Probably a good game to stay away from. This game seems to have ‘square’ written all over it with the favorite and the over. OAKLAND 27 CINCINNATI 14
MINNESOTA –8 Chicago 45
Oh, the Bears. How bad did they look last week? Wow! They gained but 127 yards at 2.2 yppl. Lost in their 7-49 debacle was their defensive effort, which wasn’t that bad. They only allowed SF to gain 391 yards but at only 5.1 yppl, which is very average. Their problem was five turnovers, that kept giving the ball to SF in great field position. The Bears only score came on a SF turnover that gave the Bears great field position. Meanwhile, the Vikings were beating the Packers pretty handily themselves. But the Vikings were beneficial of five Packer turnovers themselves. Let’s face it. If you take away the ball five times from your opponent or give away the ball five times to your opponent, the games aren’t going to be very close games. And I doubt that will continue. It just doesn’t work that way. While it’s very hard to figure out how Chicago is going to move the ball, the Bears defense was pretty solid last week and the Vikings offense did what they had to do but they were just average, gaining just 5.0 yppl last week. This is a tough side to call. It’s very hard to take a team that just may not score, although let’s not give the Vikings defense too much credit yet. They were pretty bad last year and have improved. How much have they improved is still to be determined. There is a contrarian situation that favors the Bears in this game but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. The last two years this game has been very low scoring in Minnesota, 6-13 and 7-25. This game actually sets up in a couple of different under situations, which are 286-216-11 and a week two under situation, which is 43-17-2. The problem with the under, for me, is I predict about 49 points being scored in this game, which means all the value has been sucked out of this total, which is now down to 45 and even 44.5 in some places. I would consider the under if I could get the total back to the 47 and 48 range but not quite this low. I’ll side with all the points until I see a consistent effort on defense from the Vikings and recommend looking to the under before the over in this game. The Bears are really hurting on the offensive line and Mike Tice has said he thinks they really only have one decent offensive lineman, which is their center, especially after they lost Rex Tucker during the preseason. He also said he expects the Bears to try and run the ball, given all of their offensive problems right now. MINNESOTA 24 CHICAGO17
NY GIANTS –7.5 Dallas 37
Well, some things haven’t changed yet in Dallas and some things have changed. The Cowboys and Quincy Carter still made some costly mistakes last week. But they also connected on some big plays, which the offense failed to do last year and actually moved the ball quite well at times. Dallas gained 403 yards at 6.8 yppl and even though about 100 of those yards came on two different plays, they still would have averaged about 5.3 yppl without those two big plays. So they did some things right on offense. Their defense didn’t play as well as I thought they would have and that is a concern. They allowed Atlanta 318 yards at 5.4 yppl. That’s not terrible but not up to the standard the Cowboys played last year and not good enough, considering their offense just isn’t that good yet. They’ll face a very good Giants team that I predicted to win this division and played very well last week, gaining 6.1 yards per play and allowing the Rams to only gain 4.8 yards per play. I have no situations on this game and there are a couple of under situations applying to this game but they don’t fit the better subsets and I’m not sure there is enough value on the total to play the under. If this total were at about 43 or so, I would consider the under. As for the side, I will lean with the team I think is playing better right now and that is the Giants. NY GIANTS 24 DALLAS 10
I am going to stick with 2% plays for at least one more week until I have a more definite read on these teams.
BEST BETS
YTD 2-2 –0.4%
2% MIAMI –3
2% SAN FRANCISCO +3
2% KANSAS CITY –3 (No higher than –3)
2% ARIZONA +5
