NFL Week 8

[lewis]

20* 5-1 +81 units
15* 5-1 +60 units
10* 12-8 +35.5 units
5* 17-15 +7.5 units

39-25 +184 units overall

Here are my leans for this week. I dont feel as strong about these games this week. Last week I felt like it was going to be a big week and it was......this week these numbers are closer to where they need to be but I will find some good ones before Sunday......


LEANS:

Oak +9 Raiders looked better last week and I look for them to keep getting better without all of the distractions that they were going through with the coaching situation. I think Balt wins but doesnt cover........

Miami +1 This is one of my favorites right now!!!!! Dolphins got smacked at home last week vs the Ravens and now they are facing a Bills team coming off of a huge win over SD....This line seems way out of whack but in reality look at the rushing numbers between these two........MIA 4.1 yds per rush and they hold opponents to 3.6 yds per rush then look at BUF...they rush for 3.6 yds per rush and allow 4.1 yds per rush....To me this means that the Dolphins will move the ball and have short 3rd downs which will lead to success against a team coming off of an emotional win......

Dallas -1 This is probably my favorite!!!!!!!!! Everyone has seen how bad the Cowboys have played the last two weeks and now they are facing a team that is on a roll crushing Car two weeks ago and crushing the Seachickens last week on Primetime!!!!! Anyway, we are getting great value on this play.......Dallas isnt as bad as they have looked the past few weeks and TB isnt as good......I look for Brad Johnson to play a lot better this week with another week of practice as the starter getting all of the reps.....I also think Roy Williams (WR) will help the Cowboys to a win this week since he will have more practices with the team and probably a set of plays that Garrett will have in the gameplan for him. Way too many distractions last week and now they have been embarrassed and I see them winning this one by 2 TD's or more.....This one and Miami might be the only two I play big this week......

Arizona +4 Cards coming off of a bye so they should be ready to go and after watching the Panthers crush the Saints they should be very focused........I see this as a fg type of game..........

Pitt -3 I like Pitt at home and I think that their defense will be the key.......They stop the run very well and without the run game that puts in on the shoulders of Manning to win the game and I am still not sold on him as he makes tons of mistakes when pressure is put on him and the Steelers will put pressure on him...........

other leans

Cleveland
Houston


lewis
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[woodypaige]

Lewis, I've been following you in NFL all year, because I simple have to many favorite teams, who I usually bet on.
I just wanted to thank you for being one of the cappers here that I feel really knows his stuff in NFL.
:toast:

 

[lewis]

Lewis, I've been following you in NFL all year, because I simple have to many favorite teams, who I usually bet on.
I just wanted to thank you for being one of the cappers here that I feel really knows his stuff in NFL.
:toast:

thanks woody and Im glad that I could help out.........I hope we have another winning weekend!!!!!!

 

[JimmyVegas]

Like everything but the cards game...........west coast teams are horrible at covering let alone winning against an east coast team........same goes with the raiders.......both 1pm games.......but good luck

 

[knowthegame]

I think San Diego -3 @ New Orleans is the SUCKER BET of the week, just like the Jets -3 were last week @ Oakland.

 

[lewis]

Like everything but the cards game...........west coast teams are horrible at covering let alone winning against an east coast team........same goes with the raiders.......both 1pm games.......but good luck

I agree and thats one reason why I dont like those games.......Right now it looks like I will be playing just Dallas and Miami.........

 

[Iwannawin2]

good luck this week lewis i like your style you keep it simple much respect to you and your winning ways keep it up and lets get that paper man

 

[lewis]

I think San Diego -3 @ New Orleans is the SUCKER BET of the week, just like the Jets -3 were last week @ Oakland.

you might be right...........but I personally wont touch this game because neither team IMO has an advantage playing on a neutral field especially without Bush for NO.......

GL

 

[Mr_Mark]

really like the cards at +4 but little worried about the cowboys at -1 tampas tuff defense might be too much after what the rams did against dallas i dont have much confidence in their offense or bj

 

[lewis]

really like the cards at +4 but little worried about the cowboys at -1 tampas tuff defense might be too much after what the rams did against dallas i dont have much confidence in their offense or bj

think they will be much better this week.........Coach Phillips is taking over defensive calls for this week and he is a good Def coach or has been in the past......Dallas will also look better on offense after another week with Johnson at QB

 

[Slickwitdadick]

love miami in this spot as well lewis.

no more elite teams like indy, pats dominating the afc this year. all teams that can be beaten by any team now.

pennington is playing some really solid football right now and really he just made 1 mistake last week against a very good ravens defense that was the difference. u got some good rushing stats there.

miami's losses(except vs arizona) have been very close games but people seem to base their decisions just on the final scores rather than what actually went on in the game.

 

[WormyPix]

Ugh. I am a big MIA fan, and the last 2 gms they've played were absolutely crushing. I hope to god they beat BUF, but they (BUF) love to play the Phins. Look at their previous gms, and you'll see BUF has always played MIA tuff, regardless of who's the fav. And after watching BAL open huge holes in MIA's dline, and also watching BUF allow Lynch to have a nice day vs SD, I think BUF wins a tight one. Sigh, I really hope not tho, as I'm laying off this one for sure.

Did you see how awful Brad Johnson was, and how bad his oline was blocking for him? And this is against STL's "D". Now TB comes in with a great "D" that should focus, and do a better job than STL, on Marion Barber. If TB stuffs Barber, this should get uglier than the STL gm. And TB actually has a better run gm than STL (Dunn/Graham), and look at what Jackson did! DAL is also a weaker team at home. I think Johnson gets sacked at least 6 times. Roy shouldn't make much of a difference if Brad is on his back most of the gm. And I think TO is deflated now that his boyfriend is out.

Both ARI & PIT are tuff calls, but I feel OAK is your strongest play. Like you said, stability is huge, and maybe Russell has something developing with Walker. However, OAK depends heavily on the run, and struggles against good run "D"s, which BAL has.

All tough calls, IMHO Lewis, but I always hope you win. BOL!

:toast:

 

[lewis]

love miami in this spot as well lewis.

no more elite teams like indy, pats dominating the afc this year. all teams that can be beaten by any team now.

pennington is playing some really solid football right now and really he just made 1 mistake last week against a very good ravens defense that was the difference. u got some good rushing stats there.

miami's losses(except vs arizona) have been very close games but people seem to base their decisions just on the final scores rather than what actually went on in the game.

I agree!!!!!

GL!!!!!!

 

[lewis]

Ugh. I am a big MIA fan, and the last 2 gms they've played were absolutely crushing. I hope to god they beat BUF, but they (BUF) love to play the Phins. Look at their previous gms, and you'll see BUF has always played MIA tuff, regardless of who's the fav. And after watching BAL open huge holes in MIA's dline, and also watching BUF allow Lynch to have a nice day vs SD, I think BUF wins a tight one. Sigh, I really hope not tho, as I'm laying off this one for sure.

Did you see how awful Brad Johnson was, and how bad his oline was blocking for him? And this is against STL's "D". Now TB comes in with a great "D" that should focus, and do a better job than STL, on Marion Barber. If TB stuffs Barber, this should get uglier than the STL gm. And TB actually has a better run gm than STL (Dunn/Graham), and look at what Jackson did! DAL is also a weaker team at home. I think Johnson gets sacked at least 6 times. Roy shouldn't make much of a difference if Brad is on his back most of the gm. And I think TO is deflated now that his boyfriend is out.

Both ARI & PIT are tuff calls, but I feel OAK is your strongest play. Like you said, stability is huge, and maybe Russell has something developing with Walker. However, OAK depends heavily on the run, and struggles against good run "D"s, which BAL has.

All tough calls, IMHO Lewis, but I always hope you win. BOL!

:toast:

All the points you just made against Dallas is exactly what everyone else is thinking too......but Dallas is favored...why??? I think because the books think just like I do that the Cowboys without all the distractions are a very good football team and if they hadnt lost the last two games this line would probably be around 7 but with the losses we get value and IMO its either Dallas or nothing in this game........There are no locks for sure but I know that they will play a hell of lot better than they did last week vs the Rams.......and to be honest maybe the Rams arent as bad as everyone thought....they did beat Washington and Dallas.....maybe they didnt want to play for their coach.....who knows really but I will be on the Cowboys this Sunday and I expect them to win by 7 or more........

Thanks for the comments and gl with your card!!!!!

 

[zeropointzero]

All over Miami.

As long as Barber gets 25-30 touches I feel confident in a easy Cowboy cover.

 

[lewis]

All over Miami.

As long as Barber gets 25-30 touches I feel confident in a easy Cowboy cover.

good to know........Hope you cash!!!!!!

 

[WormyPix]

I don't know Lewis, I think the line is due to public perception. DAL is still enamored by bettors, and @ home esp. But I believe DAL is 0-5 ATS @ home so far? If DAL had a solid "D", then maybe I'd have more faith that they could win the gm despite the "O". But now the "O" matches how awful the "D" is. I mean, do you have that much faith in Brad Johnson? Even in his super bowl run with TB, he wasn't a great QB. And TB's "D" is cooking right now.

Anyway, I definitely DON'T want to talk you out of making DAL your top play. Otherwise, when DAL wins, you'll be like, "why do I listen to a guy named 'Wormy Pix?!!'" LOL! GL buddy.

 

[lewis]

I don't know Lewis, I think the line is due to public perception. DAL is still enamored by bettors, and @ home esp. But I believe DAL is 0-5 ATS @ home so far? If DAL had a solid "D", then maybe I'd have more faith that they could win the gm despite the "O". But now the "O" matches how awful the "D" is. I mean, do you have that much faith in Brad Johnson? Even in his super bowl run with TB, he wasn't a great QB. And TB's "D" is cooking right now.

Anyway, I definitely DON'T want to talk you out of making DAL your top play. Otherwise, when DAL wins, you'll be like, "why do I listen to a guy named 'Wormy Pix?!!'" LOL! GL buddy.

you could be right but I still will play it the way I see it 9 out of 10 times.......so its good that you are speaking the case of the other side because you could actually be saving me money........I listened to someone earlier in the year in college because I respected what he thought.........He was wrong that particularly day but it didnt cost me anything so I wouldnt be mad because there will always be another game.....This time I feel alot stronger then I did about the situation above so unless I change the way I feel I will be on the Cowboys this Sunday and hopefully collecting after the game....win or lose I wont be mad because I will make the decision on whether I play it or not......Thanks again for your comments!!!!!!!

GL!!!!!!

 

[ZJP6050]

i think i may be with you on the steelers and cards...the others i'm not sure yet! good luck brother

 

[lewis]

i think i may be with you on the steelers and cards...the others i'm not sure yet! good luck brother

thanks and GL