Last season and this season so far, my 3* plays have been 100%........however please remember that at the end of last week's NFL thread I hinted that I would be changing things this week.
<TABLE class=tborder id=post5907630 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">
RX Wizard
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 5,407
</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_5907630 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid"><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by sds23
I wonder how good of a capper I could be if I quit playing all these totals that I can't seem to stay from and if I only released 2 or 3 plays per week instead of these insanely huge cards?
The last two seasons I was able to get away with having big cards. There were back-to-back weeks where I would routinely go 7~3. But this year I have been stuck in the 56%-60% range. Frustrating, but also my fault for not exercising discipline.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Haunting words that proved to be oh-so true this weekend.
I am probably going to chase tonight. Make no mistake about that. But then next week.....I am going back to a smaller card and perhaps a slight unit increase. I will be re-examining my entire capping system, making some changes if necessary, tightening the belt on my overall weekly card size and taking a slightly bigger risk on the unit sizes.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So this week I have changed my normal ratings by increasing the designated units per bet. Going forward, the conversion will be:
1* plays are now 2* plays
2* plays are now 3* plays
3* plays are now 5* plays
5* plays are now 10* plays
I have made some changes to my capping process to try and fix what has been failing me so far this season. I have had a few good weeks and a few bad weeks and overall I have managed to keep my head above water....but I am not hitting at the same rate as I have in past seasons. So in addition to tweaking my capping process, I am committing myself to producing slightly smaller cards with increased bet sizes.
So do not consider this 3* ATL the same as what a 3* would have represented in the past. Treat the 3* ATL play the same as you normally would treat a 2* play from me. I apologize about the confusion that this may cause, but it something that I feel strongly about doing.
But to answer your original question about my 3* plays, here was my record from last season from week 1 through week 17, broken down by play ratings:
Week 1 through Week 17 Record: 100~77......+28.88 units
--------------------------------------
Play Ratings Record
5*...............1~0
3*...............3~0
2*.............34~28
1*.............62~49
-------------------
ALL............100~77
And a link to last season's week 17 thread: http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=545488&page=2<!-- / message -->
Sorry to not have been able to post all week long. I have been pretty sick with a stomach virus. I've been fiddling with my process while laying around and I will be posting more plays tonight.
AJ & FadeThePublic ~ I hope those trends don't hold true this weekend. I hope that those trends better represent the Falcons and Eagles of the past and not this season's teams in this particualr situation. Depsite my attraction to the systems like the 500 System and the Dog System, I rarely look at trends. I attack things from more of a statistical and situational perspective. So when guys post trends supporting or refuting a particular play of mine, it is always a surprise to me in regard to me not knowing that information. And in this case, those are indeed alarming numbers that you've shared.
But like everything else, there's always other trends and numbers to offset those:
PHI is 4~9 ATS in their last 13 home games
ATL is 9~5 ATS in their last 14 away games
AJ & FadeThePublic ~ I hope those trends don't hold true this weekend. I hope that those trends better represent the Falcons and Eagles of the past and not this season's teams in this particualr situation. Depsite my attraction to the systems like the 500 System and the Dog System, I rarely look at trends. I attack things from more of a statistical and situational perspective. So when guys post trends supporting or refuting a particular play of mine, it is always a surprise to me in regard to me not knowing that information. And in this case, those are indeed alarming numbers that you've shared.
But like everything else, there's always other trends and numbers to offset those:
PHI is 4~9 ATS in their last 13 home games
ATL is 9~5 ATS in their last 14 away games
Sorry to hear about the stomach virus, my friend. I know how bad that can be. Hopefully, it will soon pass and you'll be back on your feet.
Didn't mean to sound like I was refuting your ATL play, just wanted to give you a nugget of information to add to your handicapping arsenal for that game. For the most part I agree that 9 is alot of points for the Eagles to give considering how well Turner is running and how leaky the Eagle rush D can be. And as an Eagle fan, I'll probably lay off on that one all together.
I really like Baltimore at home against the Raiders, and will probably tail you on that one. I'm also considering making the UNDER a play as well. I'm pretty sure Oakland isn't going to put up more than 10, so the only question that remains is how well Flacco will perform.
I also like Tenny-4 against Indy. Their running game should the Colts rush D fits, but we'll see.
Good luck with your revised gameplan this week! Get well, buddy.
Sorry to hear about the stomach virus, my friend. I know how bad that can be. Hopefully, it will soon pass and you'll be back on your feet.
Didn't mean to sound like I was refuting your ATL play, just wanted to give you a nugget of information to add to your handicapping arsenal for that game. For the most part I agree that 9 is alot of points for the Eagles to give considering how well Turner is running and how leaky the Eagle rush D can be. And as an Eagle fan, I'll probably lay off on that one all together.
Good luck with your revised gameplan this week! Get well, buddy.
Thanks AJ. I appreciate the encouragement and well wishes. I know of a few others with similar symptoms, so something is definitely going around. Perhaps the cold and flu season is upon us already. But I am doing much better compared to how I was the last couple of days.
As far as the ATL play and the trends you guys cited, I sincerely do appreciate knowing everything that you care to contribute. You always seem to have excellent trends, systems, opinions and a true knack for seeing through all the clutter out there. So your sharp contributions and opinions are always treasured. In no way at all was I bothered by you citing trends running contrary to my ATL play. A bit nervous by the startling numbers? Yes. But bothered? Not at all. Never hold back AJ. Keep birnging it buddy!
I am glad to hear you like the BAL play. I think there's a chance that BAL could pitch a shut-out in this one. But this is the NFL, so of course, stranger things have happened I guess. But if things hold true to form, if BAL holds them to 10 points, then I like the Under too AJ. I capped this game to be a 20 to 10 or 23 to 10 type of game. Not a lot of room. But a lean towards the Under.
I like TEN too. I am just afraid to pull the trigger for some reason. Why does this line scare me for some reason? I can't put my finger on it. From a pure statisical standpoint, TEN should CRUSH these guys. The thing I overlooked last week with regard to GB beating up IND was that IND has a tendency to crumble versus dominating and physical O-Lines and D-Lines. Not that GB is all that, but GB came out and took that game and dominated by attitude. And if GB did that to them, what in the hell is TEN going to do to them? My fear is a close game that is dominated by TEN for 3 quarters, spinning clock with the run game and then a flash comeback by Manning in the last minutes. I'd love to hear more thoughts from you on this contest AJ.
Hey IWW2 ~ Thanks for the luck my friend. But just to be clear, these 3* plays should be treated the same as my past 2* plays. I have decided to increase the size of my wagers a little bit. Here's the conversion chart from what you are used to seeing from me in the past and what I am doing now:
1* plays are now 2* plays
2* plays are now 3* plays
3* plays are now 5* plays
5* plays are now 10* plays
I've made a few minor changes to my capping process in an effort to get things figured out for this season (something has been just a bit "off" so far, I am not hitting at the same rate as I have in past seasons). I have also decided to play less games per week (no more insane 10-play or 12-play cards) and to increase the size of my wagers by a small amount.
So please treat this week's 3* plays the same as you normally would treat a 2* play from me. And wait for the rare 5* and 10* plays from me going forward to be considered the same as my past 3* and 5* plays. Sorry about any confusion that creates my friend. BOL this weekend!!
Like you said, statistically speaking Tenny shouldn't have a problem. What stood out to me the most was comparing Tennessee's rushing offense vs. Indy's rush D. TEN 7th ranked rushing attack has been averaging 155ypg and 4.5ypc. This compares almost identically with Indys 28th ranked rush D, which gives up 154ypg and 4.5ypc. I like the symmetry there.
And, not surprisingly, all of the computer models I use are giving Tenny 5 or more points of value.
Then there is the all important TREND play aspect! LOL
Home teams off a 20+ point victory... You know the rest.
