I had one of my worse weeks in the NFL in a long time last week, going 1-5. During the last two weeks I have now lost two 17+ point fourth quarter leads but I've also thrown in some very bad picks as well. The good news is even with the bad week, and actually two poor weeks in a row (3-9), the beginning of the year was so good that I am still above .500 (16-15-1) and profitable for the year (+1.20%). The only other bright spot last week was another winner on my 3% game with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, that was the only winner. Hopefully I'll turn it back around this week.
All side opinions went 5-9 last week and they are now 46-38-3 55% over the first six weeks this year.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
BUFFALO -3 Washington 39
Although they kept it competitive for almost three quarters last week, the cream rose to the top in the end, and it wasn't Washington. TB spanked Washington pretty bad in their 35-13 win. Washington gained but 275 yards at only 4.2 yppl to TB's 379 yards at 6.9 yppl. Also in the mix were six more sacks on Washington quarterbacks. The Washington defense, which played very well last year, has now become a below average defense, allowing 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. More importantly, they are allowing 24 points per game to teams averaging just 19 points per game. Combined with poor defensive play, turnovers are giving their opponent's good field position to take advantage of that. The Redskins offense is still just above average, gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.0 yppl but they'll find the going tough this week against a Bills defense that continues to play well. Buffalo was spanked bad themselves last week but their recent slide isn't because of their defense. Their defense allowed the Jets just 233 yards at 4.5 yppl. The Jets are averaging 278 yards at 5.1 yppl for the season so Buffalo's defense did their part. And they have all year, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl. The problem last week for Buffalo and all year is their offense. Last week they were without Eric Moulds and that certainly hurt them. They gained but 193 yards at a paltry 2.9 yppl. They turned the ball over four more times than the Jets (0-4). They had no chance. The Buffalo offense has been as bad as their defense has been good, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Washington does qualify in a 506-387-30 fundamental rushing situation but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. My numbers favor Buffalo by five to 14 points depending on which of the three sets I use. I'll lean Buffalo's way as I think Buffalo has a better chance to turn things around than Washington does. The numbers also support this game to be higher scoring than 'they' think. BUFFALO 31 WASHINGTON 21
NY GIANTS -3 Philadelphia 38
Turnovers continued to haunt the Giants last week, as for the second week in a row, they out gained their opponent but lost on the scoreboard because of costly turnovers, mostly from Kerry Collins. Last week it was a 0-5 ratio and you aren't going to win too many games with those types of numbers. The Giants held NE to just 220 yards at 4.1 yppl and gained 381 yards at 4.5 yppl. The offense and defense for NY are about average this year, gaining 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl on offense and allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl on defense. They have run the ball a little better, gaining 4.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr but they'll find that task very tough this week against a Philly defense that is allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including just 2.6 ypr against 3.7 ypr. I don't see the Giants running up and down the field on Philly. For the Giants, their rush defense has been below average, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr and they might find some trouble this week against a Philly offense that is averaging 5.0 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Some of that is McNabb but he has to be accounted for. Philly's big weakness this year has been their passing game, which is averaging just 3.7 yps against 5.3 yps. That makes it pretty tough to move the ball with those types of numbers. Phlly qualifies in a general contrarian situation, which is 287-207-10 and they also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including a subset that is 233-133-12. Their ability to rush the ball and stop the rush is the key in this game. With two quarterbacks struggling, I'll take the better defense and the more mobile quarterback who can makes things happen on his own. Loser of this game might be out of the race all together. PHILADELPHIA 21 NY GIANTS 17
Dallas -3 DETROIT 39
This is a very interesting game because there does appear to be some holes in this Dallas team but their fundamental approach has kept them on the winning side so far. Dallas played another sound game last week, gaining 292 yards at 4.6 yppl against Philly's 232 yards at just 3.9 yppl. For the year, Dallas is averaging 5.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl and allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Those numbers are, obviously, above average. But, in the scoring department, which one could argue is most important, they are only scoring 22 points per game against teams allowing 24 points per game and they are allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging just 16 points per game. Those numbers make them below average on both sides of the ball. The point here is, from a yards perspective, they are above average, but in terms of turning those yards into points and stopping the opposing offenses from scoring points, they are below average. My only point here is this might all catch up to them very soon. Only time will tell. I think, ideally, I would like to see them win big here and go to TB next week and it would be a nice spot to go against them. I have situations favoring both teams in this game. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including the best subset of that, which is 134-55-6 (5-1-1 TY). Detroit qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 751-585-30. The numbers in this game, actually favor Detroit, but I don't like the fundamental matchup in this game. On offense, Dallas throws the ball very well, averaging 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps and their speed at the receiver position has helped them greatly, along with Carter's ability to avoid the costly turnovers. For Detroit, their biggest weakness, is their pass defense, which is allowing 6.8 yps against 6.3 yps. That's a matchup that will be hard for them to overcome and for that reason, I will lean with the Cowboy's, although this might be a 'square' pick this week. The over looks to have a good shot as well. DALLAS 24 DETROIT 20
CLEVELAND -5 San Diego 41
SD comes off a bye week and hopes that a week off will bring better luck to them. Hopefully they worked on their defense, because over their first five games this year, they have allowed 5.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including a whopping 7.2 yps against 5.8 yps. While it would appear their rush defense isn't very good, allowing 4.6 ypr, it is actually above average, because they have faced very solid rushing offenses that are averaging 4.7 ypr. I also don't think Cleveland can take advantage of their poor pass defense, because Cleveland is only averaging 5.4 yps against 5.6 yps. While they will get some yards through the air, they won't get as many as other opponents have got against SD. And they might not get many at all because they might not have the ball. SD should be able to run the ball in this game, as the Chargers are averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr and they'll face a Cleveland defense that is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr. That doesn't bode well for Cleveland. SD qualifies in a 506-387-30 fundamental rushing situation, including a subset that is 410-288-23 (12-5-1 TY). Winless teams from week six on who are a pick 'em or a dog, are now 74-42-5 and SD qualifies in a subset of that, which is 58-22-4. Cleveland has won a couple of games but they are due for a letdown and they qualify in a negative letdown situation that is 47-105-4. And, most importantly, they qualify in a subset of that, which is 23-89-2. That's nearly 80% winners on over 100 plays. That is my best system, at least from a technical standpoint. Combine a tremendous technical situation with a solid fundamental rushing situation and you have the makings of a very, very solid play. I also have a under situation on this game, which is 6-2 this year and now 222-119-6, if the total would go to 42 or higher. My final numbers also support the under, predicting around 34-35 points. I have a tough time taking the under with the SD defense, although I do think they will play much better in this game. It's under or nothing for me. SAN DIEGO 21 CLEVELAND 14
Baltimore -2 CINCINNATI 36.5
This game sets up much like the Dallas game. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including the best subset of that, which is 134-55-6 (5-1-1 TY). But, Cincinnati qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 751-585-30. Cincinnati comes in fresh off their bye and one would think Marvin Lewis might have had enough time to scheme his way into a game plan that can attack his old defense. Baltimore won last week against Arizona, in comfortable fashion, but it was their defense and special teams that did all the work. The rushing game did wonders again, rushing for 213 yards at 5.6 ypr but their passing game continues to be nonexistent. Last week, they passed for just 72 yards at 3.8 yps. Some of the players are now rumbling about how the offense needs to be better balanced. Meanwhile, Billick continues to say that is not the kind of team we are. The rushing game continues to thrive, now averaging 5.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr and the passing game continues to stumble, averaging just 3.5 yps against 6.0 yps. They'll face a Cincinnati defense that is below average stopping the rush, allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.8 ypr but above average stopping the pass, allowing just 5.4 yps against 5.7 yps. For Cincinnati on offense, what they do well is pass the ball, but that could be tough against this Baltimore defense. Cincy is averaging 5.8 yps against 5.1 yps but Baltimore is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Cincinnati doesn't run the ball well, averaging just 2.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr and Dillon might not play this week, while Baltimore's only weakness on defense is stopping the rush, allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr. And they are actually average at that, which doesn't really make it a weakness. The line is pretty close to my numbers, as is the total, but I would lean towards the under. I chose fundamentals in the Dallas game and I will here too. BALTIMORE 20 CINCINNATI 14
MINNESOTA -3.5 Denver 44
Toughest matchup to date for Minnesota. They will face an above average offense, like they have themselves, but a top rated defense, which they haven't faced yet. Denver dominated the game two weeks ago against KC but lost the game because of another Dante Hall kick return. Last week, they dominated the numbers again but ran up against a very solid Pittsburgh defense, which made it hard to convert yards into points. This week they face a below average defense, which has thrived on the turnovers, to keep opponents out of the endzone. They may get a break this week because Jake Plummer won't play. While Steve Beuerlein is a capable backup, they'll miss Plummer's ability to roll out and scramble away from pressure. That could be the difference in this game. Minnesota is running the ball well but not as well as they would like. They are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Mike Tice has repeatedly said his team will run the ball with they can block all the defenders in the box and pass the ball when the defense puts too many people in the box. But he also said they have had trouble at the end of the game, when they want to run the ball and eat the clock away with the lead, when the defense has more men in the box than they can block. And the Vikings are throwing the ball very well this year, thanks to Randy Moss's ability to leap up and catch balls. They are averaging 8.0 yps against 6.3 yps. The Denver defense is allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr but their pass defense has been outstanding, allowing just 4.4 yps against 5.7 yps. Something has to give here. The linebackers on Denver are the best Minnesota has faced this year, although Denver has some injuries there. For Denver, their advantage in this game comes with their offense, which matches up against a poor Vikings defense. I talked about the not so obvious holes in the Dallas team. The same thing is happening here and it's just a matter of time to see, which way it goes. Minnesota is allowing just 17 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game, thanks in part to their defense creating timely turnovers. But they are allowing 5.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.3 yps. That doesn't bode well for the future. Can Denver take advantage of that on Sunday? Time will tell because I don't think they are as good with Beuerlein, on the road, in a noisy dome. But Denver is doing very well on offense this year, averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.1 yps for a total of 5.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl. There are no situations to play on here. Minnesota would qualify in a very solid situation if they were favored by three or less and Denver qualifies in my turnover table situation, but that situation doesn't work as well for teams coming off a win. Bottom line in this game is two good offenses (Minnesota's is better) against a below average defense and a top rated defense, which is Denver. You know the old saying. Defense wins games and it wins this game. I also lean pretty strongly to the under in this game. DENVER 20 MINNESOTA 17
CAROLINA -2 Tennessee 37.5
This is team number three that we have to keep an eye on this year. Carolina, as I have said for a few weeks now, is also very interesting, in that they are not giving up any points (14 per game against teams averaging 21) but they are allowing yards per play (5.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl), which makes them a bit below average. Again, something will give there. I'm more inclined to think they will continue to not allow teams to score because they have done it in the past. On offense, much like Baltimore, they are running the ball very well but not passing the ball well at all. They are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr but only averaging 5.0 yps against 6.3 yps. The defense has been average, at best, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.4 yps. Again, they are not allowing points, so we'll see which way that goes. Carolina averaged 6.6 yps last week against Indianapolis and that could be key here because they will face a terrible Tennessee pass defense, which is allowing a whopping 6.7 yps against 6.0 yps, which includes allowing David Carr to throw for 367 yards at 8.5 yps last week. The Tennessee rush defense has been below average as well, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr and overall on defense, Tennessee is allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Tennessee simply can't rush the ball, as they are averaging only 2.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they have thrown the ball terrific this year, averaging 8.1 yps against 6.2 yps. That includes last week's game, where Tennessee threw for 421 yards at 15.0 yps! Tennessee is in a letdown situation, which is a 167-115-9 play against situation and Carolina qualifies in three different fundamental rushing situations, which are 506-387-30 (they don't qualify in any better subsets of that situation, which is 17-7-1 TY), in a 71-30-3 fundamental situation and a 128-53-7 fundamental rushing situation. Final numbers support Carolina by two to eight points. Value, sound situations and the better defense at home win this game. CAROLINA 23 TENNESSEE 14
New Orleans -1 ATLANTA 41
Here's a matchup of two worthless teams that aren't going anywhere this year. Atlanta will start Kurt Kittner at quarterback and I'm not sure he'll do much of anything here. The Atlanta offense is below average, gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl, while their defense has been torched this year, allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.4 yppl. The rush defense has allowed 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and the pass defense has been atrocious, allowing 7.9 yps against 6.5 yps. I don't know if NO can take advantage of that or not. Normally I would say yes, but their offense hasn't been very good this year. They are averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and will run the ball well in this game. Their passing offense has been disappointing this year, gaining just 5.7 yps against 6.4 yps, which means they have faced some below average pass defenses and not been able to exploit them. On defense, they are about average, allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl. NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including a subset, which is 314-209-16 (11-4-1 TY). NO has the better defense, rushing game, quarterback, the fundamentals to support them and if they don't turn the ball over, they should win this game. NEW ORLEANS 26 ATLANTA 21
MIAMI -5.5 New England 37.5
For such a big game, I don't have much on this game. Both teams look pretty average, from a yards per play perspective, but I would venture to say Miami seems to be playing a little better as of late. Although, their win last week was a little misleading, seeing they only averaged 4.5 yppl to 4.4 yppl for Jacksonville, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin. NE, on the other hand, as I pointed out in the Giants writeup, won their game but were outplayed and they, too, benefited from the +5 turnover margin. For the season, Miami is averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.1 yppl and allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl. NE is averaging 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl while allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Miami qualifies as a turnover table play but teams that won their last game don't do as well in that situation. NE also qualifies in a negative letdown situation that is a 167-115-9 play against situation. Final numbers support Miami and I will lean that way. MIAMI 21 NEW ENGLAND 12
ST LOUIS -4 Green Bay 49
The Packers blew a golden opportunity last week. They could have gone into this game with a three game winning streak and possibly a four game winning streak coming out of the bye and heading to Minnesota. But a few things happened along the way and their 17 point fourth quarter lead vanished. Mike McKenzie was hurt early in that game and his departure helped KC throw their way back into the game. A Brett Favre interception returned for a touchdown also helped and then an Ahman Green fumble in overtime, when GB had great field position, put the final nail in the coffin for GB. The Packers were burned through the air in that game, allowing KC to gain 400 yards throwing at 8.9 yps. Even if you take away the last pass (a 51 yards touchdown throw), they still allowed 7.9 yps. And, with McKenzie probably out for this game as well, their pass defense could be in trouble again against a Rams offense that is throwing for 6.4 yps against 6.2 yps. GB will get back Antuawn Edwards this week and that should help. GB stuffed the Chiefs running game last week, allowing just 82 yards at 3.2 ypr, but some of that could have been because KC was throwing to try and catch up. GB also lost Joe Johnson last week for the season, and that could hurt their rush defense as well. But, as bad as their defense might appear to be or is, they aren't any worse than the Rams defense, which has been able to camouflage their defense the last two weeks against anemic offenses of Arizona and Atlanta. The Rams are still allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.2 yppl against 5.0 yppl. This week, they will finally meet a team who can take advantage of their poor rush defense. GB is averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr and throwing the ball for another 6.3 yps against 6.1 yps. With Wesley Walls now into the mix on offense, Favre has plenty of weapons to throw the ball to and Green is running better than ever this year. I know all about GB's problems in the dome, but that is vastly overrated. Most of those games, the line hasn't been favorable to Green Bay bettors. As a matter of fact, since 1992 (when Favre started playing with GB), the Packers are just 6-16-0 in domes when they are getting three or less points (also favored), but when GB is getting more than three points, they are 6-1. These numbers are for regular season only. Give a good team points on the road, when they aren't expected to do anything, and they will oblige. GB has won four of those seven games straight up, while two of the three losses were by four and three points. Coming in as a favorite, teams have been fired up to beat them. But, as dogs, all of a sudden, they don't appear to be quite as good anymore, and teams relax a little against them. GB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including a subset of that, which is 410-288-23 (12-5-1 TY). Meanwhile, the Rams are in for a letdown and they qualify in a negative situation that is a 105-47-4 play against them, including the subset of that, which is an amazing 89-23-2 play against them. Those two solid situations, along with what appears to be value on GB make GB the side in this one. My numbers show about 46-49 points in this game but I have a very good under situation in this game, which is 6-2 this year and 222-119-6 overall. The fundamentals line up to the over, but the value isn't there and the technicals show the under to be the right side of the total. Probably a good total to avoid. GREEN BAY 24 ST LOUIS 23
NY Jets -3 HOUSTON 37.5
I had Houston last week and they disappointed me big time. While I realized their pass defense wasn't that good and facing a good Tennessee passing offense, I didn't expect them to allow over 420 yards through the air and 15.0 yps. Maybe Aaron Glenn makes that big of a difference in the secondary as he missed last week and will probably miss this week. While the technicals line up to Houston again this week, they unfortunately, get the same type of poor matchup with the Jets this week. I talked last week about how good the Jets offense actually is performing. They ran the ball a lot last week, which kept their yards per play average down, because they still can't run the ball real well. But, when they did pass, they continued to throw the ball well, averaging 6.1 yps last week against a Buffalo defense that is allowing just 4.7 yps this year. For the year now, the Jets are averaging 6.5 yps against 5.6 yps, which helps their offense average 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl (3.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr). While their defense has allowed rushing yards to the tune of 4.3 ypr against 3.7 ypr, their pass defense has been pretty good, allowing just 5.3 yps against 5.9 yps. Last week Houston, at least, had a favorable matchup in their passing game, because they were facing a below average Tennessee secondary. But this week, the Houston passing offense (6.5 yps against 6.3 yps) will face a stiffer test. And Houston hasn't been able to rush the ball (3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr) to take advantage of the Jets porous rush defense. The problem for Houston again this week is that outstanding Jets passing offense against a Houston secondary that is allowing an amazing 8.5 yps against 6.6 yps. That doesn't bode well for Houston. Houston does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 751-585-30 and they qualify in three different subsets of that, which are 33-13-0, 123-65-3 and 136-77-4. Bad teams laying points is never a good option and the Jets qualify in a negative situation based on that, which is 44-17-1 and plays against them here. Technicals line up for Houston, fundamentals line up with the Jets as does the value in this game. I will have to lean the way of the Jets because of that. NY JETS 21 HOUSTON 17
SEATTLE -11 Chicago 41.5
I'll start this by saying Chicago qualifies as a turnover table play and that system is 751-585-30, including a subset, which is 117-69-4 but that's about all the good things I can say about the Bears. If I knew Anthony Thomas was playing (he's doubtful) and Kordell Stewart was playing, I would give the Bears a shot to get this cover. While I realize how bad Stewart is and can be, he, at least, gives them an option to avoid the rush. I don't know how Chris Chandler is going to be able to do that on the road. It could get ugly very quickly. The Bears defense has been pretty average this year, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl, and a little worse than average against the run (4.8 ypr against 4.5 ypr) and average against the pass (6.0 yps against 6.0 yps). On offense, they have run the ball well, especially as of late, with the combination of Stewart scrambling and Thomas finding holes. But their 5.0 ypr against 4.2 ypr doesn't do much for me when it looks like both of those guys will be out of action. Now, you have to rely on their passing game, which is averaging just 3.8 yps against 5.9 yps. That should get a little better with Chandler but he'll probably get knocked out of this game with a concussion and he isn't going to make that much of a difference anyway. For Seattle, their defense is playing very well right now, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and above average against the run and pass. On offense, they are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr and should be able to do some damage against the Bears rush defense. The passing game is still behind, averaging just 5.7 yps against 6.0 yps, but Holmgren was holding back the pass offense until he got Chris Terry back last week. Last week the wind dictated a lot of what they could and couldn't do. If there isn't any wind, I look for them to air it out this week. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 6-2 this year and 222-119-6 overall, if the total would go to 42 or higher. My final predicted score shows about 38 to 41 points being scored, which would favor the under if the total goes to 42 or more. Those numbers also favor Seattle by close to 20 points and I see no reason not to agree with them, even if the turnover table situation favors Chicago. SEATTLE 28 CHICAGO 10
Tampa Bay -3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 40
The TB offense is clicking along just fine right now, averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps. Their rushing game still isn't doing anything, gaining just 3.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr. On defense, they are still playing solid, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl, and above average against the run and the pass. For SF, their offense is having problems getting going, gaining just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl but their defense has been extremely solid, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl and above average against the run and the pass. SF qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations in this game, which are 107-53-6 and 128-53-7. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 751-585-30 and they qualify in a subset, which is 136-77-4. SF's ability to play defense and their potential big play makers on offense (Garcia and Owens) give them a chance in this game. Yes, the TB defense can make people look bad, including Garcia, which they did last year in the playoffs, but getting points with a solid defense that can run the ball, always gives you a chance at the cover. Final numbers suggest about a four point game here, which is fair value, especially when you consider the solid situations in SF's favor. SAN FRANCISCO 21 TAMPA BAY 17
Kansas City -3.5 OAKLAND 47
I can make a decent case to go against KC here but I'm not sure I can make a good enough case to take Oakland in this game. KC is either a team of destiny this year or they are living on borrowed time. Their offense has played very well this year, gaining 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and well above average with both the run and pass. But, their defense, is much like Minnesota's defense, in that they are giving up yards but turnovers, etc. are keeping the points off the board. KC is only allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game, but they are allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl and below average against the run and the pass. If you think back over their last three games, they have been extremely lucky to win those games. But, sometimes hard work, opportunity and luck are camouflaged as just that, luck, when in fact it's the makings of a good team. Against Baltimore, they were out gained 265-326 and 4.5 yppl to 6.0 yppl. In that game, it took a Dante Hall kick off return late in the game to seal the win. Against Denver a week later, they were out gained 261-469 and 4.9 yppl to 6.7 yppl. Again, it took a Dante Hall punt return to get the victory. Against, GB last week, they had more yards and a better yards per play, but they were being beaten soundly until key injuries to GB helped KC get back in the game, along with an interception return for a touchdown. Maybe their good enough to overcome all of that each week, but I have to believe it catches up to them at some point. I'm just not sure if it happens with this Oakland team this week, who has showed no heart at all this year. Oakland is below average on offense, gaining just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl and below average on defense, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Priest Holmes should have a field day against this rush defense. Oakland qualifies in a couple of contrary situations, which are 116-64-3 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that, which is 43-13-0. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 751-585-30. I'll side with Oakland in this game because of the situations and the fact I believe KC will come back down to earth sooner rather than later. The numbers greatly favor KC here but I will rely on the situations, which are usually stronger. This game also qualifies in a under situation, which is 4-1 this year and now 290-217-11 overall. Final numbers in this game suggest about 49 to 54 points so I don't see enough value in the under for me. KANSAS CITY 24 OAKLAND 23
BEST BETS
YTD 16-15-1 +1.20%
3% SAN DIEGO +5
2% PHILADELPHIA +3
2% CAROLINA -1.5
2% GREEN BAY +4
2% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
All side opinions went 5-9 last week and they are now 46-38-3 55% over the first six weeks this year.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
BUFFALO -3 Washington 39
Although they kept it competitive for almost three quarters last week, the cream rose to the top in the end, and it wasn't Washington. TB spanked Washington pretty bad in their 35-13 win. Washington gained but 275 yards at only 4.2 yppl to TB's 379 yards at 6.9 yppl. Also in the mix were six more sacks on Washington quarterbacks. The Washington defense, which played very well last year, has now become a below average defense, allowing 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. More importantly, they are allowing 24 points per game to teams averaging just 19 points per game. Combined with poor defensive play, turnovers are giving their opponent's good field position to take advantage of that. The Redskins offense is still just above average, gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.0 yppl but they'll find the going tough this week against a Bills defense that continues to play well. Buffalo was spanked bad themselves last week but their recent slide isn't because of their defense. Their defense allowed the Jets just 233 yards at 4.5 yppl. The Jets are averaging 278 yards at 5.1 yppl for the season so Buffalo's defense did their part. And they have all year, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl. The problem last week for Buffalo and all year is their offense. Last week they were without Eric Moulds and that certainly hurt them. They gained but 193 yards at a paltry 2.9 yppl. They turned the ball over four more times than the Jets (0-4). They had no chance. The Buffalo offense has been as bad as their defense has been good, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Washington does qualify in a 506-387-30 fundamental rushing situation but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. My numbers favor Buffalo by five to 14 points depending on which of the three sets I use. I'll lean Buffalo's way as I think Buffalo has a better chance to turn things around than Washington does. The numbers also support this game to be higher scoring than 'they' think. BUFFALO 31 WASHINGTON 21
NY GIANTS -3 Philadelphia 38
Turnovers continued to haunt the Giants last week, as for the second week in a row, they out gained their opponent but lost on the scoreboard because of costly turnovers, mostly from Kerry Collins. Last week it was a 0-5 ratio and you aren't going to win too many games with those types of numbers. The Giants held NE to just 220 yards at 4.1 yppl and gained 381 yards at 4.5 yppl. The offense and defense for NY are about average this year, gaining 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl on offense and allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl on defense. They have run the ball a little better, gaining 4.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr but they'll find that task very tough this week against a Philly defense that is allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl, including just 2.6 ypr against 3.7 ypr. I don't see the Giants running up and down the field on Philly. For the Giants, their rush defense has been below average, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr and they might find some trouble this week against a Philly offense that is averaging 5.0 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Some of that is McNabb but he has to be accounted for. Philly's big weakness this year has been their passing game, which is averaging just 3.7 yps against 5.3 yps. That makes it pretty tough to move the ball with those types of numbers. Phlly qualifies in a general contrarian situation, which is 287-207-10 and they also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including a subset that is 233-133-12. Their ability to rush the ball and stop the rush is the key in this game. With two quarterbacks struggling, I'll take the better defense and the more mobile quarterback who can makes things happen on his own. Loser of this game might be out of the race all together. PHILADELPHIA 21 NY GIANTS 17
Dallas -3 DETROIT 39
This is a very interesting game because there does appear to be some holes in this Dallas team but their fundamental approach has kept them on the winning side so far. Dallas played another sound game last week, gaining 292 yards at 4.6 yppl against Philly's 232 yards at just 3.9 yppl. For the year, Dallas is averaging 5.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl and allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Those numbers are, obviously, above average. But, in the scoring department, which one could argue is most important, they are only scoring 22 points per game against teams allowing 24 points per game and they are allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging just 16 points per game. Those numbers make them below average on both sides of the ball. The point here is, from a yards perspective, they are above average, but in terms of turning those yards into points and stopping the opposing offenses from scoring points, they are below average. My only point here is this might all catch up to them very soon. Only time will tell. I think, ideally, I would like to see them win big here and go to TB next week and it would be a nice spot to go against them. I have situations favoring both teams in this game. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including the best subset of that, which is 134-55-6 (5-1-1 TY). Detroit qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 751-585-30. The numbers in this game, actually favor Detroit, but I don't like the fundamental matchup in this game. On offense, Dallas throws the ball very well, averaging 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps and their speed at the receiver position has helped them greatly, along with Carter's ability to avoid the costly turnovers. For Detroit, their biggest weakness, is their pass defense, which is allowing 6.8 yps against 6.3 yps. That's a matchup that will be hard for them to overcome and for that reason, I will lean with the Cowboy's, although this might be a 'square' pick this week. The over looks to have a good shot as well. DALLAS 24 DETROIT 20
CLEVELAND -5 San Diego 41
SD comes off a bye week and hopes that a week off will bring better luck to them. Hopefully they worked on their defense, because over their first five games this year, they have allowed 5.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including a whopping 7.2 yps against 5.8 yps. While it would appear their rush defense isn't very good, allowing 4.6 ypr, it is actually above average, because they have faced very solid rushing offenses that are averaging 4.7 ypr. I also don't think Cleveland can take advantage of their poor pass defense, because Cleveland is only averaging 5.4 yps against 5.6 yps. While they will get some yards through the air, they won't get as many as other opponents have got against SD. And they might not get many at all because they might not have the ball. SD should be able to run the ball in this game, as the Chargers are averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr and they'll face a Cleveland defense that is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr. That doesn't bode well for Cleveland. SD qualifies in a 506-387-30 fundamental rushing situation, including a subset that is 410-288-23 (12-5-1 TY). Winless teams from week six on who are a pick 'em or a dog, are now 74-42-5 and SD qualifies in a subset of that, which is 58-22-4. Cleveland has won a couple of games but they are due for a letdown and they qualify in a negative letdown situation that is 47-105-4. And, most importantly, they qualify in a subset of that, which is 23-89-2. That's nearly 80% winners on over 100 plays. That is my best system, at least from a technical standpoint. Combine a tremendous technical situation with a solid fundamental rushing situation and you have the makings of a very, very solid play. I also have a under situation on this game, which is 6-2 this year and now 222-119-6, if the total would go to 42 or higher. My final numbers also support the under, predicting around 34-35 points. I have a tough time taking the under with the SD defense, although I do think they will play much better in this game. It's under or nothing for me. SAN DIEGO 21 CLEVELAND 14
Baltimore -2 CINCINNATI 36.5
This game sets up much like the Dallas game. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including the best subset of that, which is 134-55-6 (5-1-1 TY). But, Cincinnati qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 751-585-30. Cincinnati comes in fresh off their bye and one would think Marvin Lewis might have had enough time to scheme his way into a game plan that can attack his old defense. Baltimore won last week against Arizona, in comfortable fashion, but it was their defense and special teams that did all the work. The rushing game did wonders again, rushing for 213 yards at 5.6 ypr but their passing game continues to be nonexistent. Last week, they passed for just 72 yards at 3.8 yps. Some of the players are now rumbling about how the offense needs to be better balanced. Meanwhile, Billick continues to say that is not the kind of team we are. The rushing game continues to thrive, now averaging 5.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr and the passing game continues to stumble, averaging just 3.5 yps against 6.0 yps. They'll face a Cincinnati defense that is below average stopping the rush, allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.8 ypr but above average stopping the pass, allowing just 5.4 yps against 5.7 yps. For Cincinnati on offense, what they do well is pass the ball, but that could be tough against this Baltimore defense. Cincy is averaging 5.8 yps against 5.1 yps but Baltimore is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Cincinnati doesn't run the ball well, averaging just 2.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr and Dillon might not play this week, while Baltimore's only weakness on defense is stopping the rush, allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr. And they are actually average at that, which doesn't really make it a weakness. The line is pretty close to my numbers, as is the total, but I would lean towards the under. I chose fundamentals in the Dallas game and I will here too. BALTIMORE 20 CINCINNATI 14
MINNESOTA -3.5 Denver 44
Toughest matchup to date for Minnesota. They will face an above average offense, like they have themselves, but a top rated defense, which they haven't faced yet. Denver dominated the game two weeks ago against KC but lost the game because of another Dante Hall kick return. Last week, they dominated the numbers again but ran up against a very solid Pittsburgh defense, which made it hard to convert yards into points. This week they face a below average defense, which has thrived on the turnovers, to keep opponents out of the endzone. They may get a break this week because Jake Plummer won't play. While Steve Beuerlein is a capable backup, they'll miss Plummer's ability to roll out and scramble away from pressure. That could be the difference in this game. Minnesota is running the ball well but not as well as they would like. They are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Mike Tice has repeatedly said his team will run the ball with they can block all the defenders in the box and pass the ball when the defense puts too many people in the box. But he also said they have had trouble at the end of the game, when they want to run the ball and eat the clock away with the lead, when the defense has more men in the box than they can block. And the Vikings are throwing the ball very well this year, thanks to Randy Moss's ability to leap up and catch balls. They are averaging 8.0 yps against 6.3 yps. The Denver defense is allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr but their pass defense has been outstanding, allowing just 4.4 yps against 5.7 yps. Something has to give here. The linebackers on Denver are the best Minnesota has faced this year, although Denver has some injuries there. For Denver, their advantage in this game comes with their offense, which matches up against a poor Vikings defense. I talked about the not so obvious holes in the Dallas team. The same thing is happening here and it's just a matter of time to see, which way it goes. Minnesota is allowing just 17 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game, thanks in part to their defense creating timely turnovers. But they are allowing 5.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.3 yps. That doesn't bode well for the future. Can Denver take advantage of that on Sunday? Time will tell because I don't think they are as good with Beuerlein, on the road, in a noisy dome. But Denver is doing very well on offense this year, averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.1 yps for a total of 5.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl. There are no situations to play on here. Minnesota would qualify in a very solid situation if they were favored by three or less and Denver qualifies in my turnover table situation, but that situation doesn't work as well for teams coming off a win. Bottom line in this game is two good offenses (Minnesota's is better) against a below average defense and a top rated defense, which is Denver. You know the old saying. Defense wins games and it wins this game. I also lean pretty strongly to the under in this game. DENVER 20 MINNESOTA 17
CAROLINA -2 Tennessee 37.5
This is team number three that we have to keep an eye on this year. Carolina, as I have said for a few weeks now, is also very interesting, in that they are not giving up any points (14 per game against teams averaging 21) but they are allowing yards per play (5.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl), which makes them a bit below average. Again, something will give there. I'm more inclined to think they will continue to not allow teams to score because they have done it in the past. On offense, much like Baltimore, they are running the ball very well but not passing the ball well at all. They are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr but only averaging 5.0 yps against 6.3 yps. The defense has been average, at best, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.4 yps. Again, they are not allowing points, so we'll see which way that goes. Carolina averaged 6.6 yps last week against Indianapolis and that could be key here because they will face a terrible Tennessee pass defense, which is allowing a whopping 6.7 yps against 6.0 yps, which includes allowing David Carr to throw for 367 yards at 8.5 yps last week. The Tennessee rush defense has been below average as well, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr and overall on defense, Tennessee is allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Tennessee simply can't rush the ball, as they are averaging only 2.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they have thrown the ball terrific this year, averaging 8.1 yps against 6.2 yps. That includes last week's game, where Tennessee threw for 421 yards at 15.0 yps! Tennessee is in a letdown situation, which is a 167-115-9 play against situation and Carolina qualifies in three different fundamental rushing situations, which are 506-387-30 (they don't qualify in any better subsets of that situation, which is 17-7-1 TY), in a 71-30-3 fundamental situation and a 128-53-7 fundamental rushing situation. Final numbers support Carolina by two to eight points. Value, sound situations and the better defense at home win this game. CAROLINA 23 TENNESSEE 14
New Orleans -1 ATLANTA 41
Here's a matchup of two worthless teams that aren't going anywhere this year. Atlanta will start Kurt Kittner at quarterback and I'm not sure he'll do much of anything here. The Atlanta offense is below average, gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl, while their defense has been torched this year, allowing 6.1 yppl against 5.4 yppl. The rush defense has allowed 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and the pass defense has been atrocious, allowing 7.9 yps against 6.5 yps. I don't know if NO can take advantage of that or not. Normally I would say yes, but their offense hasn't been very good this year. They are averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and will run the ball well in this game. Their passing offense has been disappointing this year, gaining just 5.7 yps against 6.4 yps, which means they have faced some below average pass defenses and not been able to exploit them. On defense, they are about average, allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl. NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including a subset, which is 314-209-16 (11-4-1 TY). NO has the better defense, rushing game, quarterback, the fundamentals to support them and if they don't turn the ball over, they should win this game. NEW ORLEANS 26 ATLANTA 21
MIAMI -5.5 New England 37.5
For such a big game, I don't have much on this game. Both teams look pretty average, from a yards per play perspective, but I would venture to say Miami seems to be playing a little better as of late. Although, their win last week was a little misleading, seeing they only averaged 4.5 yppl to 4.4 yppl for Jacksonville, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin. NE, on the other hand, as I pointed out in the Giants writeup, won their game but were outplayed and they, too, benefited from the +5 turnover margin. For the season, Miami is averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.1 yppl and allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl. NE is averaging 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl while allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Miami qualifies as a turnover table play but teams that won their last game don't do as well in that situation. NE also qualifies in a negative letdown situation that is a 167-115-9 play against situation. Final numbers support Miami and I will lean that way. MIAMI 21 NEW ENGLAND 12
ST LOUIS -4 Green Bay 49
The Packers blew a golden opportunity last week. They could have gone into this game with a three game winning streak and possibly a four game winning streak coming out of the bye and heading to Minnesota. But a few things happened along the way and their 17 point fourth quarter lead vanished. Mike McKenzie was hurt early in that game and his departure helped KC throw their way back into the game. A Brett Favre interception returned for a touchdown also helped and then an Ahman Green fumble in overtime, when GB had great field position, put the final nail in the coffin for GB. The Packers were burned through the air in that game, allowing KC to gain 400 yards throwing at 8.9 yps. Even if you take away the last pass (a 51 yards touchdown throw), they still allowed 7.9 yps. And, with McKenzie probably out for this game as well, their pass defense could be in trouble again against a Rams offense that is throwing for 6.4 yps against 6.2 yps. GB will get back Antuawn Edwards this week and that should help. GB stuffed the Chiefs running game last week, allowing just 82 yards at 3.2 ypr, but some of that could have been because KC was throwing to try and catch up. GB also lost Joe Johnson last week for the season, and that could hurt their rush defense as well. But, as bad as their defense might appear to be or is, they aren't any worse than the Rams defense, which has been able to camouflage their defense the last two weeks against anemic offenses of Arizona and Atlanta. The Rams are still allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.2 yppl against 5.0 yppl. This week, they will finally meet a team who can take advantage of their poor rush defense. GB is averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr and throwing the ball for another 6.3 yps against 6.1 yps. With Wesley Walls now into the mix on offense, Favre has plenty of weapons to throw the ball to and Green is running better than ever this year. I know all about GB's problems in the dome, but that is vastly overrated. Most of those games, the line hasn't been favorable to Green Bay bettors. As a matter of fact, since 1992 (when Favre started playing with GB), the Packers are just 6-16-0 in domes when they are getting three or less points (also favored), but when GB is getting more than three points, they are 6-1. These numbers are for regular season only. Give a good team points on the road, when they aren't expected to do anything, and they will oblige. GB has won four of those seven games straight up, while two of the three losses were by four and three points. Coming in as a favorite, teams have been fired up to beat them. But, as dogs, all of a sudden, they don't appear to be quite as good anymore, and teams relax a little against them. GB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 506-387-30, including a subset of that, which is 410-288-23 (12-5-1 TY). Meanwhile, the Rams are in for a letdown and they qualify in a negative situation that is a 105-47-4 play against them, including the subset of that, which is an amazing 89-23-2 play against them. Those two solid situations, along with what appears to be value on GB make GB the side in this one. My numbers show about 46-49 points in this game but I have a very good under situation in this game, which is 6-2 this year and 222-119-6 overall. The fundamentals line up to the over, but the value isn't there and the technicals show the under to be the right side of the total. Probably a good total to avoid. GREEN BAY 24 ST LOUIS 23
NY Jets -3 HOUSTON 37.5
I had Houston last week and they disappointed me big time. While I realized their pass defense wasn't that good and facing a good Tennessee passing offense, I didn't expect them to allow over 420 yards through the air and 15.0 yps. Maybe Aaron Glenn makes that big of a difference in the secondary as he missed last week and will probably miss this week. While the technicals line up to Houston again this week, they unfortunately, get the same type of poor matchup with the Jets this week. I talked last week about how good the Jets offense actually is performing. They ran the ball a lot last week, which kept their yards per play average down, because they still can't run the ball real well. But, when they did pass, they continued to throw the ball well, averaging 6.1 yps last week against a Buffalo defense that is allowing just 4.7 yps this year. For the year now, the Jets are averaging 6.5 yps against 5.6 yps, which helps their offense average 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl (3.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr). While their defense has allowed rushing yards to the tune of 4.3 ypr against 3.7 ypr, their pass defense has been pretty good, allowing just 5.3 yps against 5.9 yps. Last week Houston, at least, had a favorable matchup in their passing game, because they were facing a below average Tennessee secondary. But this week, the Houston passing offense (6.5 yps against 6.3 yps) will face a stiffer test. And Houston hasn't been able to rush the ball (3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr) to take advantage of the Jets porous rush defense. The problem for Houston again this week is that outstanding Jets passing offense against a Houston secondary that is allowing an amazing 8.5 yps against 6.6 yps. That doesn't bode well for Houston. Houston does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 751-585-30 and they qualify in three different subsets of that, which are 33-13-0, 123-65-3 and 136-77-4. Bad teams laying points is never a good option and the Jets qualify in a negative situation based on that, which is 44-17-1 and plays against them here. Technicals line up for Houston, fundamentals line up with the Jets as does the value in this game. I will have to lean the way of the Jets because of that. NY JETS 21 HOUSTON 17
SEATTLE -11 Chicago 41.5
I'll start this by saying Chicago qualifies as a turnover table play and that system is 751-585-30, including a subset, which is 117-69-4 but that's about all the good things I can say about the Bears. If I knew Anthony Thomas was playing (he's doubtful) and Kordell Stewart was playing, I would give the Bears a shot to get this cover. While I realize how bad Stewart is and can be, he, at least, gives them an option to avoid the rush. I don't know how Chris Chandler is going to be able to do that on the road. It could get ugly very quickly. The Bears defense has been pretty average this year, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl, and a little worse than average against the run (4.8 ypr against 4.5 ypr) and average against the pass (6.0 yps against 6.0 yps). On offense, they have run the ball well, especially as of late, with the combination of Stewart scrambling and Thomas finding holes. But their 5.0 ypr against 4.2 ypr doesn't do much for me when it looks like both of those guys will be out of action. Now, you have to rely on their passing game, which is averaging just 3.8 yps against 5.9 yps. That should get a little better with Chandler but he'll probably get knocked out of this game with a concussion and he isn't going to make that much of a difference anyway. For Seattle, their defense is playing very well right now, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and above average against the run and pass. On offense, they are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr and should be able to do some damage against the Bears rush defense. The passing game is still behind, averaging just 5.7 yps against 6.0 yps, but Holmgren was holding back the pass offense until he got Chris Terry back last week. Last week the wind dictated a lot of what they could and couldn't do. If there isn't any wind, I look for them to air it out this week. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 6-2 this year and 222-119-6 overall, if the total would go to 42 or higher. My final predicted score shows about 38 to 41 points being scored, which would favor the under if the total goes to 42 or more. Those numbers also favor Seattle by close to 20 points and I see no reason not to agree with them, even if the turnover table situation favors Chicago. SEATTLE 28 CHICAGO 10
Tampa Bay -3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 40
The TB offense is clicking along just fine right now, averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps. Their rushing game still isn't doing anything, gaining just 3.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr. On defense, they are still playing solid, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl, and above average against the run and the pass. For SF, their offense is having problems getting going, gaining just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl but their defense has been extremely solid, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl and above average against the run and the pass. SF qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations in this game, which are 107-53-6 and 128-53-7. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 751-585-30 and they qualify in a subset, which is 136-77-4. SF's ability to play defense and their potential big play makers on offense (Garcia and Owens) give them a chance in this game. Yes, the TB defense can make people look bad, including Garcia, which they did last year in the playoffs, but getting points with a solid defense that can run the ball, always gives you a chance at the cover. Final numbers suggest about a four point game here, which is fair value, especially when you consider the solid situations in SF's favor. SAN FRANCISCO 21 TAMPA BAY 17
Kansas City -3.5 OAKLAND 47
I can make a decent case to go against KC here but I'm not sure I can make a good enough case to take Oakland in this game. KC is either a team of destiny this year or they are living on borrowed time. Their offense has played very well this year, gaining 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and well above average with both the run and pass. But, their defense, is much like Minnesota's defense, in that they are giving up yards but turnovers, etc. are keeping the points off the board. KC is only allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game, but they are allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl and below average against the run and the pass. If you think back over their last three games, they have been extremely lucky to win those games. But, sometimes hard work, opportunity and luck are camouflaged as just that, luck, when in fact it's the makings of a good team. Against Baltimore, they were out gained 265-326 and 4.5 yppl to 6.0 yppl. In that game, it took a Dante Hall kick off return late in the game to seal the win. Against Denver a week later, they were out gained 261-469 and 4.9 yppl to 6.7 yppl. Again, it took a Dante Hall punt return to get the victory. Against, GB last week, they had more yards and a better yards per play, but they were being beaten soundly until key injuries to GB helped KC get back in the game, along with an interception return for a touchdown. Maybe their good enough to overcome all of that each week, but I have to believe it catches up to them at some point. I'm just not sure if it happens with this Oakland team this week, who has showed no heart at all this year. Oakland is below average on offense, gaining just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl and below average on defense, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Priest Holmes should have a field day against this rush defense. Oakland qualifies in a couple of contrary situations, which are 116-64-3 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that, which is 43-13-0. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 751-585-30. I'll side with Oakland in this game because of the situations and the fact I believe KC will come back down to earth sooner rather than later. The numbers greatly favor KC here but I will rely on the situations, which are usually stronger. This game also qualifies in a under situation, which is 4-1 this year and now 290-217-11 overall. Final numbers in this game suggest about 49 to 54 points so I don't see enough value in the under for me. KANSAS CITY 24 OAKLAND 23
BEST BETS
YTD 16-15-1 +1.20%
3% SAN DIEGO +5
2% PHILADELPHIA +3
2% CAROLINA -1.5
2% GREEN BAY +4
2% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
