NFL Week 7 (PRL & Bets)

[Loves2kickass]

Week 7 matchup's with my PRL (power rating line). Point spread NOT in parenthesis is a neutral field PRL. Point spread IN parenthesis includes HF adjustment. Most of my power rating lines are real close to the actual current lines, if not identical, proof that NFL spreads are pretty tight week in, week out.

My bets have no write up or situational explanations. I strictly use my updated PRL each week as compared to actual lines. I'll post my bets on Sunday morning and afternoon. I've used this for the season to complete my Circa Million contest picks (22-8). No need to tail my bets if you don't wish to. Use the information in any way that you'd like to, if at all. GL.

Jacksonville -0.6 @ New Orleans (-0.8)

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -0.9 (-2.3)

Las Vegas -3.8 (-2.4) @ Chicago

Cleveland -3.1 (-1.7) @ Indianapolis

Detroit @ Baltimore -0.7 (-2.1)

Buffalo -10.4 (-9) @ New England

Washington -3.6 (-2.2) @ NY Giants

Arizona @ Seattle -5.9 (-7.3)

Pittsburgh @ LA Rams -1.6 (-3)

LA Chargers @ Kansas City -4.3 (-5.7)

Green Bay -2.2 (-0.8) @ Denver

Miami @ Philadelphia PK (-1.4)

San Francisco -6.9 (-5.5) @ Minnesota

 

[Loves2kickass]

As an example, if the SF/MINN game was played today I'd be betting on Minnesota +7, a 1.5 point differential from my PRL of Minnesota +5.5

 

[authorbytrade]

This is great information and thanks for sharing. A lot of hard work goes into prepping these numbers and it's kind of you to share them. This is why, IMHO, the NFL has to be bet more recreationally than most other sports. No deep dive here, that would take a long time, but you're obviously smart and dedicated and the numbers are nearly identical to what we see coming out of the books....hard to gain an advantage. Access to information has taken these advantages out of most sports and made things like the NFL and NBA very difficult to beat. Even things like small school college basketball has become tedious from a power ratings perspective. I can remember making bets in college basketball 20 years ago where I'd have a 7-10 point advantage. Sagarin, Massey, Pomeroy and a few others that no on here will have heard of changed the game too much and almost no one betting on these sports is as smart as any of those guys.

22-8 in the Circa contest is impressive and probably a better beginning to any NFL handicapping contest than I've ever achieved. Congrats.

 

[Loves2kickass]

This is great information and thanks for sharing. A lot of hard work goes into prepping these numbers and it's kind of you to share them. This is why, IMHO, the NFL has to be bet more recreationally than most other sports. No deep dive here, that would take a long time, but you're obviously smart and dedicated and the numbers are nearly identical to what we see coming out of the books....hard to gain an advantage. Access to information has taken these advantages out of most sports and made things like the NFL and NBA very difficult to beat. Even things like small school college basketball has become tedious from a power ratings perspective. I can remember making bets in college basketball 20 years ago where I'd have a 7-10 point advantage. Sagarin, Massey, Pomeroy and a few others that no on here will have heard of changed the game too much and almost no one betting on these sports is as smart as any of those guys.

22-8 in the Circa contest is impressive and probably a better beginning to any NFL handicapping contest than I've ever achieved. Congrats.

Thank you, no problem at all. It's pretty crazy how some of these are right on the number and it happens every week. It does take some time, you're correct. It took me longer to learn how to formulate a market derived line than it does to implement each week but it's worth it in the long run. This is the only way I've found that I can beat the book consistently at a profitable rate. I could bet off the opening lines or during the week as they adjust but I found it's better to wait until the day of the games. I've experimented with every option and none is drastically better than the other really. As far as the contest is concerned I don't expect to win but I'd be ecstatic to finish in the money. I don't care if it's the last spot in the money. Thanks again.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Only 11 teams i give a PR above 0. I've listed them below in order of strength from top to bottom.

1. SF
2. KC
3. BUFF
T4. MIA
T4. PHI
6. DALL
7. BALT
8. CIN
9. DET
10. LAC
11. JAX

SEA & NO just barely missed the list.

 

[LuckysBoy]

Thanks for Posting Y2KA, your plays win at a high %.I appreciate Plays you post and info you share. Not ez gaining an edge on the books and you do a very nice job of it. You are a very good capper and definitely could win the Circa. Hopefully you get some luck in the games that could go for you or against you late and more go for you. ie. LV with Pats game. Noticed last couple years, many of your games you post are easy winners. When that happens, to me it shows you have identified some significant edges on your side. Appreciate you helping out guys like me, where a lot times its hard to identify games that have a bigger significant edge than others.From what i have seen you are GREAT at that, finding games with pretty good size edges. Thanks again for taking time to Post! GL the rest of the way in Circa.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Thanks for Posting Y2KA, your plays win at a high %.I appreciate Plays you post and info you share. Not ez gaining an edge on the books and you do a very nice job of it. You are a very good capper and definitely could win the Circa. Hopefully you get some luck in the games that could go for you or against you late and more go for you. ie. LV with Pats game. Noticed last couple years, many of your games you post are easy winners. When that happens, to me it shows you have identified some significant edges on your side. Appreciate you helping out guys like me, where a lot times its hard to identify games that have a bigger significant edge than others.From what i have seen you are GREAT at that, finding games with pretty good size edges. Thanks again for taking time to Post! GL the rest of the way in Circa.

Thanks brother for the kind words. Good luck with your bets.

 

[Joe$$Moneyline]

Thanx
Continued Success

 

[jimrr]

Thanks for posting this L2KA ..

 

[3pointdog]

Great job pal...

 

[cigar]

So what's your name in the contest? The only week you posted was the week 3, 1-4 clunker yet other than that you're a sizzling 21 of 25 at 84%.

 

[cigar]

Lmao they took that down wow they have a gullible mod

 

[exploited17]

Lmao they took that down wow they have a gullible mod

Took what down?

 

[cigar]

I asked what his name was in the contest cause the only week he's posted is the week 3, 1-4 clunker meaning he's been a sizzling 21 of 25 otherwise at 84 percent.

 

[itchyback]

would you consider denver at + 1
but moneyline + 100
a no value bet as the dog isn't a positive return ( like + 130 )

 

[BoutMyMoney]

Incredible contest results.

Stay hot dude

 

[Loves2kickass]

PRL
Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-0.8)
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-2.3)
Las Vegas (-2.4) @ Chicago
Cleveland (-1.7) @ Indianapolis
Detroit @ Baltimore (-2.1)
Buffalo (-9) @ New England
Washington (-2.2) @ NY Giants
Arizona @ Seattle (-7.3)
Pittsburgh @ LA Rams (-3)
LA Chargers @ Kansas City (-5.7)
Green Bay (-0.8) @ Denver
Miami @ Philadelphia (-1.4)
San Francisco (-5.5) @ Minnesota

I'll have any bets i place posted tomorrow throughout the day. Good luck y'all!

 

[Loves2kickass]

would you consider denver at + 1
but moneyline + 100
a no value bet as the dog isn't a positive return ( like + 130 )

Hey brother. I have a PRL Denver +0.8, which is basically Denver +1. As far as the line is concerned it's spot on. If the line increased I'd consider it. The line doesn't have to have a positive return, such as my bet on a Dallas last week vs the Chargers.

 

[MikeB]

Lots of great info here

thanks for sharing

 

[Loves2kickass]

Lots of great info here

thanks for sharing