NFL Week 6

[sds23]

As usual, my day job keeps me pretty busy and I still have a lot of capping to do. But two plays stick out to me already and I will post them without the proper due dilligence:


1* MIA +3 -120


I also will be playing the Over in the GB / SEA game.

But the GB / SEA number is dropping, so I am content to see just low it will go before I pull the trigger. This will likely be a 2* play. Both offenses are putting a lot of pressure on themselves to score some points this weekend. Mike Holmgren chewed his offense out and Hasselbeck is not letting the message fall by the wayside. In the case of the Packers, Aaron Rodgers stated how important it is for the Packers to come out fast. The first quarter or first half could also end up being a play as well in regard to the Over.

 

[thecruncher]

I was a little surprised when the early action came in on Houston, as I'd bet Miami when it opened showing great value on them. The juice has taken a 180 degree turn now, and I'm glad to see the money coming in on Miami. I hope you personally got down on it at better than -120!

GB/SEA should be a great game. The O/U, man I don't know, I'm showing a little bit of value on the Over right now. Both teams have had key offensive injuries, though both are now recovering, which should def. help. GB suffered a rash of defensive injuries as well which has hurt their d. the last couple of weeks. If you come across any new information on their defensive injuries...feel free to post it.

 

[sds23]

I was a little surprised when the early action came in on Houston, as I'd bet Miami when it opened showing great value on them. The juice has taken a 180 degree turn now, and I'm glad to see the money coming in on Miami. I hope you personally got down on it at better than -120!

GB/SEA should be a great game. The O/U, man I don't know, I'm showing a little bit of value on the Over right now. Both teams have had key offensive injuries, though both are now recovering, which should def. help. GB suffered a rash of defensive injuries as well which has hurt their d. the last couple of weeks. If you come across any new information on their defensive injuries...feel free to post it.

I was pretty late to the party on the MIA play, which is always a concern and a direct result of my late week capping efforts. So unfortumately -120 is indeed the number I had to swallow. But I figure that if it goes +2.5 then I will be happy to have gotten the +3 even at the price of -120.......and if the price or the number itself becomes more favorable then I can always double dip later.

I agree that the numbers aren't screaming for heavy action on the GB / SEA total, but both offenses are putting a lot of pressure on themselves to perform. Plus I like the fact that GB's defense is banged up in addition to being ranked near the bottom of the NFL and SEA always plays better at home. More of a gut feeling than anything. And despite my intensive capping efforts (when I finally get around to it, LOL) I usually play one or two based on a strong feeling or intuition if and when such situations arise.

Thanks for the input Crunch. You know I strongly value your opinions, system and facts. I will take it under advisement before I pull the trigger on that total.

 

[sds23]

Season Record Break Down by Week

Week 1 Record: 6~3........+4.60 units

Week 2 Record: 6~1........+9.90 units

Week 3 Record: 3~5........-5.90 units

Week 4 Record: 8~8........+0.60 untis

Week 5 Record: 10~5.......+4.35 units

-------------------------------------

Season Record: 33~22.....+13.55 units

-------------------------------------

Play Ratings Record

3*.................1~0
2*...............15~10
1*...............17~12
-------------------
ALL..............33~22

-------------------------------------

MNF Record: 8~0

 

[sds23]

GB/SEA should be a great game. The O/U, man I don't know, I'm showing a little bit of value on the Over right now. Both teams have had key offensive injuries, though both are now recovering, which should def. help. GB suffered a rash of defensive injuries as well which has hurt their d. the last couple of weeks. If you come across any new information on their defensive injuries...feel free to post it.

It sounded like Hasselbeck would play, despite not practicing all week long. Several times during the week Holmgren said that he expected him to start. Now that news has been drastically changed and it looks like Hasselbeck will NOT start or even play this weekend. The #3 QB Charlie Frye (who was horrible against CLE) will be the starter. Ouch.

Needless to say, I am no longer in love with the GB / SEA Over play!

 

[sds23]

Week 6 Plays

2* BAL +4 110
1* NYJ -9 105
1* STL +13.5 105
1* CHI -3 100
1* MIA +3 120



(I am also looking at CLE as a possible play and would love to see that number go to +10. More plays likely to come.)

 

[Ketch]

Nyj -9?

 

[Ketch]

Palmer out!

 

[ajreeb]

Week 6 Plays

2* BAL +4 110
1* NYJ -9 105
1* STL +13.5 105
1* CHI -3 100
1* MIA +3 120

Glad to see you on Baltimore.
In an otherwise so-so board this week, the only game that stuck out to me was BAL+4. I'm thinking Indy is getting undeserved respect for last week's miracle win (although I'm happy it helped you out), and BAL is getting just the opposite after a questionable call contributed to their loss. Combine that with Baltimore's 4th ranked rushing O against Indy's leaky rush D and you have a game that sets up perfectly for Baltimore to control.

I also like the Jets off a bye, but I'm not comfortable laying 9 points against a team that covered easily against Dallas and NYG.

Considering ARZ+5, any opinion on that one?

Looking forward to your MNF play as well...

Best of luck with your card this week, my friend!

 

[sds23]

Palmer out!

Yes he is. But to tell you truth, I was liking NYJ with or without Palmer being the trigger man for CIN. BOL this weekend!

 

[sds23]

Glad to see you on Baltimore.
In an otherwise so-so board this week, the only game that stuck out to me was BAL+4. I'm thinking Indy is getting undeserved respect for last week's miracle win (although I'm happy it helped you out), and BAL is getting just the opposite after a questionable call contributed to their loss. Combine that with Baltimore's 4th ranked rushing O against Indy's leaky rush D and you have a game that sets up perfectly for Baltimore to control.

I also like the Jets off a bye, but I'm not comfortable laying 9 points against a team that covered easily against Dallas and NYG.

Considering ARZ+5, any opinion on that one?

Looking forward to your MNF play as well...

Best of luck with your card this week, my friend!

Thanks AJ! I am glad you like the BAL play and you are spot-on with your perspective on this one.

As far as NYJ, I think this is a team that will be playing with a lot of confidence. Listen to your gut and stay away if it seems risky. But if you are looking for a slight nudge toward playing it, I would not place too much emphasis on how CIN played relative to the spread against other opponents. You know, the whole "if A is greater than B, and if B is greater than C, then A must be greater than C" pattern of thinking. It's hard not to, humans are prewired to do so, but every team matches up differently and I always try to remind myself to take a more situational approach to viewing matchups.

I lean ARI for sure in the DAL / ARI game. But here's my hangup: Is this really going to a home game for ARI? That is a serious question that needs to be considered. Historically this has been basically a home game for DAL. Is there enough pride and support in ARI this season to prevent this? Either way....there will be a lot of points and it will likey be close. Let me chew on that one some more. I am undecided.

BOL this weekend buddy!

 

[METFAN]

Hi Sean,

Back From The Wineries...why Do You Like Miami? That Line Seems A Little Fishy To Me...is That Like A Faux Favorite For You?

 

[ajreeb]

Thanks AJ! I am glad you like the BAL play and you are spot-on with your perspective on this one.

As far as NYJ, I think this is a team that will be playing with a lot of confidence. Listen to your gut and stay away if it seems risky. But if you are looking for a slight nudge toward playing it, I would not place too much emphasis on how CIN played relative to the spread against other opponents. You know, the whole "if A is greater than B, and if B is greater than C, then A must be greater than C" pattern of thinking. It's hard not to, humans are prewired to do so, but every team matches up differently and I always try to remind myself to take a more situational approach to viewing matchups.

I lean ARI for sure in the DAL / ARI game. But here's my hangup: Is this really going to a home game for ARI? That is a serious question that needs to be considered. Historically this has been basically a home game for DAL. Is there enough pride and support in ARI this season to prevent this? Either way....there will be a lot of points and it will likey be close. Let me chew on that one some more. I am undecided.

BOL this weekend buddy!

Been looking some more at the BAL v. IND game:

BAL rush D rank 1st avg. 64 ypg
IND rush O rank 32nd avg. 67.8ypg

BAL rush O rank 4th avg. 153.8ypg
IND rush D rank 32nd avg. 188.5 ypg

BAL pass O rank 31st avg. 136 ypg
IND pass D rank 4th avg. 164.5 ypg

BAL pass D rank 1st avg. 128.5 ypg
IND pass O rank 7th avg. 245.5 ypg

Looking at these, it's a little surprising that Baltimore is a 4 point dog. I assume public perception and home field advantage play some roll, and I know more goes into it, but I'd put BAL a 3 point fav. based on these stats alone. The only concern I have is if Indy is able to get up early and Baltimore is forced to pass more to play catch-up. That's the only match-up that favors Indy. Oh well, let's hope for the best!

 

[sds23]

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RX Senior



Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 3,189


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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Hi Sean,

Back From The Wineries...why Do You Like Miami? That Line Seems A Little Fishy To Me...is That Like A Faux Favorite For You?
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10-11-2008, 09:18 PM <!-- / status icon and date --></TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right> #13 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>ajreeb<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5869836", true); </SCRIPT>
RX Junior



Join Date: Nov 2007
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by sds23
Thanks AJ! I am glad you like the BAL play and you are spot-on with your perspective on this one.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Been looking some more at the BAL v. IND game:

BAL rush D rank 1st avg. 64 ypg
IND rush O rank 32nd avg. 67.8ypg

BAL rush O rank 4th avg. 153.8ypg
IND rush D rank 32nd avg. 188.5 ypg

BAL pass O rank 31st avg. 136 ypg
IND pass D rank 4th avg. 164.5 ypg

BAL pass D rank 1st avg. 128.5 ypg
IND pass O rank 7th avg. 245.5 ypg

Looking at these, it's a little surprising that Baltimore is a 4 point dog. I assume public perception and home field advantage play some roll, and I know more goes into it, but I'd put BAL a 3 point fav. based on these stats alone. The only concern I have is if Indy is able to get up early and Baltimore is forced to pass more to play catch-up. That's the only match-up that favors Indy. Oh well, let's hope for the best!
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Met & AJ ~<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
Since the answers to your questions are damn near mirror images of each other, I will address them both in the same response.<o></o>
<o></o>
I am sure you both have heard the old adage about the two things necessary to win in the NFL: Being able to stop the run on defense and being able to run the ball on offense. Doing both well requires dominance in the trenches. And in these two games, both the MIA and BAL matchups give them a chance to control the game on both sides of the ball.<o></o>
<o></o>
The MIA rush attack (10th best in the league w/ 126 ypg) faces a weak HOU rush defense (26th in the NFL w/ 140 ypg). And on the other side of the ball a stout MIA rush defense (7th in the NFL w/ 83 ypg) faces a middle of the road HOU rush offense (16th in the NFL w/ 114 ypg).<o></o>
<o></o>
The contrast is even more severe with regard to BAL.<o></o>
<o></o>
On offense the potent BAL rush attack (4th best in the NFL w/ 154 ypg) faces the league’s worst IND rush defense (32nd in the NFL w/ 189 ypg). And on the other side of the ball the league’s best BAL rush defense (1st in the NFL w/ 64 ypg) faces the leagues worst IND rush offense (32nd in the NFL w/ 68 ypg).<o></o>
<o></o>
MIA has made a big turn around this season and it started between their ears. Head Coach Tony Sparano has brought toughness and discipline to the team but has also employed a very encouraging and optimistic approach. As a result the team is playing confidently. Even as early as the preseason (MIA went 3~1 in the preseason) Sparano was telling the team to “get used to winning”. And now, after defeating NE and SD in back-to-back weeks, this team is walking with a genuine swagger.<o></o>
<o></o>
BAL also has a swagger. And why not? Their defense is ranked #1 in total yards allowed (#1 in rush ypg, #1 in pass ypg, #4 in points pg). BAL has the defensive ability to choke the IND offense (#32 in rush ypg, #7 in pass ypg, #21 in points pg) and the offensive rush attack to keep their defense well rested and the IND offense off the field.<o></o>
<o></o>
AJ, I hear your concerns about BAL not being in a position to get back into a game via the pass or worrying about a first half explosion from IND. But the BAL defense is for real and should not allow that to happen. Furthermore, the IND offense has yet to score more than 21 points against a good defense and the majority of their points have come in the 2nd half.<o></o>

 

[Primož]

Good luck bro:toast:

 

[sds23]

Good luck bro:toast:

Thanks Primoz. BOL today my friend!

 

[MistaFlava]

good luck this week bro, cash money $$$$

 

[sds23]

good luck this week bro, cash money $$$$

Thanks Flav ~ and BOL to you sir!!

 

[ajreeb]

This week's parlay:
$20 to win $220
NYJ-9.5 St.L+14 ARZ+5.5 GB+1

Thanks again for taking the time to breakdown a couple games, much appreciated!

Good luck with your card today!

 

[ajreeb]

Week 6 Plays

1* CHI -3 100

Kind of late, but I just noticed that one falls against the "shoe rule", however that system hasn't been hitting much this year.