Atlanta -3 -115 @ Saints (1)
Only playing this game for a (1) due to the lack of success the Falcons have had in New Orleans and on the road, plus division game, desperate Saints team, etc. etc. etc. Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans. I know it's a different Atlanta team and that they are playing well and are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road. That's why I'm playing them this Thursday. Plus the fact that this Saints team is definitely down and misses all their weapons on offense. Brees is a competitor and that alone worries me some. I'm riding the hot team in this division game that are 4-1 ats and has Julio Jones saying the only way he'd miss this game is if they cut his leg off.
Bears @ Detroit over 43 (1)
As much as I want to take the Lions in this game I just can't with Caldwell at the helm. In most likely a close game like this one will be he will most likely mess it up some way, some how, with one of his ridiculous decisions or substitutions. While the offensive stats of both these teams are not very good, the defenses have been even more disappointing. They are giving up 28.4 and 27.3 ppg. The Bears offense has gotten a lift with the return of Cutler and they have actually won 2 games in a row now. Detroit and the Bears have a past of playing higher scoring games at Detroit, the total has gone over in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago. The total has gone over in 18 of Chicago's last 25 games on the road. So will see if the offenses can pick it up a couple of notches and reach this attainable number, and we might even get a defensive score or to's that will lead to points.
Zona @ Pitt under 44 1/2 (1)
Zona are 5-0 on the o/u spread while Pitt are 1-4 o/u. Something has got to give in this game. I like this Pitt D of how they bend a little and just wait for a mistake by the offense. And what better way to shorten a game with Vick at QB than to run, run, run the ball. With Bell and Williams at the RB spots, I would even hand it off almost 80 % of the time. These two teams usually go over the total but that was with Ben at the helm. Small play on the under for me.
Carolina @ Seattle under 41 (1)
Going against the numbers here and playing this game under. Carolina scoring 27 ppg but this by far will be their toughest test so far this season. They put up points against TB, Saints, Houston, who hasn't scored their fair share of points on those teams. Seattle is hungry, and I mean hungry, and those fans will be loud, very loud if you know what I mean. The total has gone under in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Seattle. These two teams will D it up. Obviously, the Seattle offense operates much better with Lynch in the line up. They won't know until the end of the week, but if he can go that means more time burned off the clock. Regardless, if he plays or not Seattle has to establish the running game as Wilson has taken a beating and just doesn't seem the same. I wouldn't think Carolina would be in a big hurry to get off a lot of plays. They would prefer a close low scoring game imo. and just want to avoid the to's, which usually mean a more conservative game. Anyway, I really think this game will be more fg's than td's or I lose another one.
San Diego +10 @ Pack (1)
I'd love to come up with some great reasons why I'm betting against the Pack at home, but I only have one real reason why I'm against them. Rivers. He will keep this game under 10. The Pack were very fortunate to cover the spread last week and win by DD's. I think they win, but 10 is just to many to give a veteran qb of his caliber. GB has a bye after this game and Denver on deck. I just think they might play this game a little more conservative and just go after the W this week.
Cincy @ Buff +3 1/2 (2)
Cincy at 5-0 and 4-0-1 ats and are playing their first road game in 3 weeks. In that road game they beat Balt by 4, on their last possession if I remember right. This will be their biggest test on the road against a very physical team who you just know that their D will be even extra fired up with the injury to their starting QB. Which is the reason why Cincy is not a dog in this game on the road. That D will have a plan for Dalton just like they did for Luck. Past stats/trends as Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo. Yes once again different players, different situations, and all that, point being Cicny has not faired well at Buff. It's not that I'm trying to pick my spots when these undefeated teams finally lose a game, even if Cincy had a loss I would still be playing Buff in this game. Of course I'd would have rather given a point to Cincy and had Taylor in the lineup. Manuel hasn't taken a snap in 6 weeks. There will be some rust. All the more why Buff will want to shorten this game and keep it to fg's. This NFL is crazy. Cincy offense is ranked 2nd overall at 421 yards a game, and if they do that this week I'm going down along with the Bills. My bills and the Buff Bills!
Still waiting on Pats/Colts, Houston/Jackson
They are talking about Luck right now on ESPN. He was throwing passes 25 yards down field. Of course no D bearing down on him. I'm leaning strong towards the Pats. With or without Luck in the lineup. They will run it up if they can to prove point. They are the better team with the best qb in the league (or at least him and Rodgers) rank up there for me.
New England is 17-2-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
As always, info, comments, opinions, always welcome in my thread. I try to look at this forum as a team with one goal to try and beat the man.
Good luck everyone and bet reasonable!
