NFL Week 6 model Selections

[ConleyPicks]

How about taking a risk on South Carolina who is unranked and beating Auburn which is #15 in the nation rankings?
How about starting a 3-1 overall record of plays for NCAAF?
How about a start of 3-1 overall record of plays for baseball?

And I don't know anything about building models right? :think2:

I know maybe a lucky start but next time keep the unnecessary comments to yourself on 1 guys model

 

[varkeyboy]

I mean, Auburn was a -2.5 dog for a reason =) HOME UNDERDOG had a great chance to get the outright in. Good call.

 

[ConleyPicks]

I mean, Auburn was a -2.5 dog for a reason =) HOME UNDERDOG had a great chance to get the outright in. Good call.

Thanks I knew it was a good win
I will now be sticking to my baseball model along with my ncaaf football model plus my nfl #1 and #3 model (scrap #2 for now)

 

[JohnnyMags]

Don't take things so personally .... Just suck it up and trudge on
Do your best that's what we all try to do

 

[ConleyPicks]

Don't take things so personally .... Just suck it up and trudge on
Do your best that's what we all try to do

w-thumbs!^

 

[Clemson1]

Conley, I’m a good guy so I will acknowledge it was unnecessary for me to bash you. I notice you put in a lot of effort and contribute to the service plays forum. Thanks! You can’t win long term straight betting high ML favorites. It’s much smarter to lay the points or tease down below key numbers in the NFL. 2 team teasers can be profitable in NFL due to the expected lower standard deviation but you have to be smart about getting the proper value of teasing down below key numbers. For NCAA, lay the points or 2 team parlay high ML favs. Teasers in college are mostly -EV due to higher volatility in scoring and game differential. You seem to be a good guy. I apologize for my earlier post. Let’s just win!

 

[Clemson1]

Nice chart for converting ML’s to Winning %:

[h=2]Moneyline Conversion: Odds to Percentage Chart[/h]

Favorites​	Underdogs​
Money Line​	Win %​	Money Line​	Win %​
-400​	80.00%​	+400​	20.00%​
-395​	79.80%​	+395​	20.20%​
-390​	79.60%​	+390​	20.40%​
-385​	79.40%​	+385​	20.60%​
-380​	79.20%​	+380​	20.80%​
-375​	78.90%​	+375​	21.10%​
-370​	78.70%​	+370​	21.30%​
-365​	78.50%​	+365​	21.50%​
-360​	78.30%​	+360​	21.70%​
-355​	78.00%​	+355​	22.00%​
-350​	77.80%​	+350​	22.20%​
-345​	77.50%​	+345​	22.50%​
-340​	77.30%​	+340​	22.70%​
-335​	77.00%​	+335​	23.00%​
-330​	76.70%​	+330​	23.30%​
-325​	76.50%​	+325​	23.50%​
-320​	76.20%​	+320​	23.80%​
-315​	75.90%​	+315​	24.10%​
-310​	75.60%​	+310​	24.40%​
-305​	75.30%​	+305​	24.70%​
-300​	75.00%​	+300​	25.00%​
-295​	74.70%​	+295​	25.30%​
-290​	74.40%​	+290​	25.60%​
-285​	74.00%​	+285​	26.00%​
-280​	73.70%​	+280​	26.30%​
-275​	73.30%​	+275​	26.70%​
-270​	73.00%​	+270​	27.00%​
-265​	72.60%​	+265​	27.40%​
-260​	72.20%​	+260​	27.80%​
-255​	71.80%​	+255​	28.20%​
-250​	71.40%​	+250​	28.60%​
-245​	71.00%​	+245​	29.00%​
-240​	70.60%​	+240​	29.40%​
-235​	70.10%​	+235​	30.00%​
-230​	69.70%​	+230​	30.00%​
-225​	69.20%​	+225​	31.00%​
-220​	68.80%​	+220​	31.00%​
-215​	68.30%​	+215​	32.00%​
-210​	67.70%​	+210​	32.00%​
-205​	67.20%​	+205​	33.00%​
-200​	66.70%​	+200​	33.00%​
-195​	66.10%​	+195​	34.00%​
-190​	65.50%​	+190​	34.00%​
-185​	64.90%​	+185​	35.00%​
-180​	64.30%​	+180​	36.00%​
-175​	63.60%​	+175​	36.00%​
-170​	63.00%​	+170​	37.00%​
-165​	62.30%​	+165​	38.00%​
-160​	61.50%​	+160​	38.00%​
-155​	60.80%​	+155​	39.00%​
-150​	60.00%​	+150​	40.00%​
-145​	59.20%​	+145​	41.00%​
-140​	58.30%​	+140​	42.00%​
-135​	57.40%​	+135​	43.00%​
-130​	56.50%​	+130​	43.00%​
-125​	55.60%​	+125​	44.00%​
-120​	54.50%​	+120​	45.00%​
-115​	53.50%​	+115​	47.00%​
-110​	52.40%​	+110​	48.00%​
-105​	51.20%​	+105​	49.00%​
-100​	50.00%​	+100​	50.00%​

 

[ConleyPicks]

Conley, I’m a good guy so I will acknowledge it was unnecessary for me to bash you. I notice you put in a lot of effort and contribute to the service plays forum. Thanks! You can’t win long term straight betting high ML favorites. It’s much smarter to lay the points or tease down below key numbers in the NFL. 2 team teasers can be profitable in NFL due to the expected lower standard deviation but you have to be smart about getting the proper value of teasing down below key numbers. For NCAA, lay the points or 2 team parlay high ML favs. Teasers in college are mostly -EV due to higher volatility in scoring and game differential. You seem to be a good guy. I apologize for my earlier post. Let’s just win!

No worries man apology accepted!
I am focusing on mlb/ncaaf/nfl totals for now on not because of this post but just to play around with my models and see how they do
And yes let's get back to WINNING!

cheersgif

 

[bank--it]

Looking forward to today’s choices $
GL

 

[varkeyboy]

Gl