Some one temporarily posted a GB -7 line early in the week and then it went off of the board. Everyone is waiting to hear about the status of Aaron Rodgers. Most books consider the QB worth about 3 points to an NFL spread, so one would think that a line would be available by now, but this is unprecidented in the fact that GB has two rookies behind Rodgers which probably makes Aaron worth more than 3 points in this case, or that much more difficult to account for.
As far as the game is concerned, there are some pretty significant variables favoring ATL this weekend.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Aaron Rogers is pretty banged up and will be a game time decision tomorrow. The only reason they are even considering playing Rodgers with an injured throwing shoulder is because they don’t have any other options at QB (or at least none with any experience or much a chance to win a game). It would be a different story if GB’s defense and offensive rush attack were as good as they were last season. If that were the case (which it is not), then a guy like Matt Flynn might be able to simply play a conservative / error free caretaker role and have a chance. But this is not the case, or at least it has not been the case so far, four weeks into the season.<o
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></o>Although Brian Broehm will eventually become the back-up QB, for now it is Matt Flynn who would get the start if Rodgers is declared inactive or if he can not make it through an entire game. Flynn displayed a much better grasp of the Packer offense than Broehm during the preseason and made better decisions with the ball. Neither guy is ready to lead this team, especially when so much is expected from the passing game due to their ineffectiveness ground attack.<o
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></o>Rodgers tried to practice on Wednesday, but had to call it quits after just a few handoffs with the first team offense. He ran back into the trainers rooms and was not seen again on the practice field. The Packers will be making a decision based largely upon how Rodgers plays today in the Saturday practice. The final announcement pertaining to his injury and game status will come tomorrow, a couple of hours before kickoff.<o
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></o>Even if Rodgers does play, one had to wonder how effective he will be and or how restrictive of a game plan there will be. If this was the 2007/2008 Packers, I would not be too worried about this game. I would have expected a heavy does of run and for the defense to play lights out, gutting out an ugly low scoring win in front of the home crowd.<o
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></o>But the truth of the matter is that Green Bay’s offensive rushing stats are horrible (ranked 23<SUP>rd</SUP> in the NFL) and their overall defense is worse (ranked a lowly 26<SUP>th</SUP> in the league).<o
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></o>Of further concern is that ATL has the #1 ranked rushing offense. That advantage is further enhanced when noting that GB’s rush defense, just like it’s overall defense, is ranked 26<SUP>th</SUP> in the NFL. So unless GB’s Ryan Grant can suddenly turn it around and start playing like he did last season, this is a HUGE edge for ATL in what appears to be shaping up as a conservative, ground orientated fist fight. <o
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></o>Take a look at the offensive and defensive number for this one, keeping in mind that any perceived advantage for GB in the passing department may be nullified or at least dramatically decreased:<o
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>Offense/Defense Rush Pass Pts</o>Falcons Offense 182 157 22.5<o
></o>Packers Defense 158 204 25.2<o
></o>Offense/Defense Rush Pass Pts <o
></o>Packers Offense 94 226 27.2<o
></o>Falcons Defense 131 201 20.8<o
></o><o
></o>Practice and Injury Report
<o
></o>Atlanta Offense<o
></o>--WR Laurent Robinson: D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons WR Laurent Robinson (knee) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is not expected to play in the team's Week 5 game.
--OT Todd Weiner: D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons OT Todd Weiner (knee) was limited during practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is expected to be available to play in the team's Week 5 game.
--OL Sam Baker: D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons OT Sam Baker (illness) was limited during practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is expected to play in the team's Week 5 game.<o
></o>Atlanta Defense<o
></o>--DL Grady Jackson: D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons DL Grady Jackson (knee) was limited during practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is expected to play in the team's Week 5 game.
--DL Jason Jefferson: D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons DL Jason Jefferson (ankle) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is not expected to play in the team's Week 5 game.
--SS Lawyer Milloy: D. Orlando Ledbetter, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons SS Lawyer Milloy (rib) fully participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is expected to play in the team's Week 5 game.<o
></o><o
></o>Green Bay Offense<o
></o>--QB Aaron Rodgers: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (shoulder) was limited during practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as questionable for the team's Week 5 game and will be a game-time decision.
--RB Kregg Lumpkin: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers RB Kregg Lumpkin (hamstring) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as doubtful for the team's Week 5 game and will not play.
--RB Ryan Grant: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers RB Ryan Grant (hamstring) participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is not on the injury report for the team's Week 5 game.
--FB Korey Hall: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers FB Korey Hall (knee) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as doubtful for the team's Week 5 game and will not play.
--WR James Jones: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers WR James Jones (knee) fully participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as probable for the team's Week 5 game and is expected to play in the game.
--C Scott Wells: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers C Scott Wells (back) participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is not on the injury report for the team's Week 5 game.
--OL Josh Sitton: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers OG Josh Sitton (knee) participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is not on the injury report for the team's Week 5 game.
<o
></o>Green Bay Defense<o
></o>--DL Ryan Pickett: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers DL Ryan Pickett (knee) fully participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as probable for the team's Week 5 game and is expected to play.
--DL Jason Hunter: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers DL Jason Hunter (hamstring) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as doubtful for the team's Week 5 game and is not expected to play.
--DL Justin Harrell: Tom Pelissero, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers DL Justin Harrell (back) is making progress from his back surgery five months ago and is 80 to 85 percent of the way toward his peak physical condition, according to strength and conditioning coach Rock Gullickson. Harrell has been receiving one-on-one training with Gullickson four times a week. If he returns, Harrell likely would have a significant role with the team.
--LB A.J. Hawk: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers LB A.J. Hawk (groin) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as questionable for the team's Week 5 game. He will be a game-time decision but is expected to play.
--CB Will Blackmon: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers CB Will Blackmon (quadriceps) participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is not on the injury report for the team's Week 5 game and is expected to play.
--CB Charles Woodson: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers CB Charles Woodson (toe) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as probable for the team's Week 5 game and is expected to play.
--FS Nick Collins: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers FS Nick Collins (back) fully participated in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as probable for the team's Week 5 game and is expected to play.
--SS Atari Bigby: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers SS Atari Bigby (hamstring) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as doubtful for the team's Week 5 game and is not expected to play.
--SS Aaron Rouse: Pete Dougherty, of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers SS Aaron Rouse (knee) did not participate in practice Friday, Oct. 3. He is listed as doubtful for the team's Week 5 game and is not expected to play.<o
></o>Thanks for the in-depth look. Great analysis, sds! I had this game as a "no-play" but after reading your breakdown, I'm leaning Atlanta. However, I just checked with my local and he is only giving me ATL+3.5. Just wondering what line you were able to lock in, and if you feel as strongly about the play at +3.5.
Top play on my card is ARZ-1. Solid ats record at home since last year, Buffalo going cross country and barely edging out last couple games against inferior opponents. Some injury issues... Basically just feel Buffalo is set up for a loss and Arizona to get things turned around.
Let's hope we are both on point with that game.
Top play on my card is ARZ-1. Solid ats record at home since last year, Buffalo going cross country and barely edging out last couple games against inferior opponents. Some injury issues... Basically just feel Buffalo is set up for a loss and Arizona to get things turned around.
Let's hope we are both on point with that game.
Any time AJ. And I agree completely with your assessment of BUF/ARI. Cross country is never easy and I have a feeling that with ARI being struck on the east coast for two weeks, that they will be very happy to be back home and will be hungry to come out strong. Boldin being hurt is a major concern on the surface, but I am counting on Breaston to fill the void at WR.
I have this rated as a 1* because BUF scares me a little bit, but this looks like a great spot to take ARI.
Please, by all means do not lean due to my opinion. Lord knows I have been a little off my game two of the four weeks this season.
Here’s what I know:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Aaron Rodgers' injury is a sprained right shoulder. He obtained the injury scrambling for a 1<SUP>st</SUP> down. He was tackled from behind just shy of the 1<SUP>st</SUP> down marker and when he reached out with the ball to stretch for the marker, he landed awkwardly and hard on his throwing shoulder and immediately grimaced. He later entered the game and threw a 40+ yard rocket ball to Jennings for a 48-yard TD. But immediately upon firing that rocket he dropped his throwing arm limply to his side and winced in pain. It was a bit like watching a major league pitcher throw out his arm on 100-mph fastball. It did not look good.<o
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></o>Head coach Mike McCarthy originally said that GB would evaluate Rodgers’ shoulder after the Thursday Oct 1<SUP>st</SUP> practice (the practice Rodgers left after merely handing the ball off a few times). Clearly, if McCarthy was looking for good news on Thursday he had to have been disappointed with the results. Next the timetable for evaluation was stretched out to Saturday (today) with a public announcement likely a few hours before game time. And now that’s been changed to GB waiting to make a final evaluation on Rodgers “90 minutes before game time”.<o
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></o>Anyway you slice it, this does not bode as good news for anyone hoping to see a healthy Rodgers on the field tomorrow.<o
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></o>GB is in a desperate situation here. Even if the opponent is lowly ATL, they know that their defense and run game has not shown any indication of being able to carry this team without a functioning pass attack to move the chains. On the one hand they know they need Rodgers to win this game. But on the other hand they probably fear that forcing him on the field could result in an injury that heals slower.<o
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></o>Just how hurt is Rodgers? It’s hard to tell. Earlier in the week Rodgers publicly stated that he “will play on Sunday” and mentioned that “playing with pain will not be an issue” for him. His only publicly stated concern was if he “could make all the throws or not”.<o
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></o>The last QB to have this exact same injury was Eli Manning in week one of last season. And if you recall, Eli was deemed a game time decision also but able to play in Week two. He threw 29 passes, completing 16 of them for 211 yards, a TD and an INT. And then Eli was able to continue playing the rest of the season. But we have no way of knowing the exact severity of Rodgers’ injury in comparison to Manning’s injury. We just know that they are the same type of injury. The only thing I can think of that makes me think Eli’s injury was less serious is the fact that Eli came back in the same game he obtained the injury and played a series or two (if my memory serves me correctly). Aaron did not. Matt Flynn came into the game. And he completed two of five throws for all of six yards.<o
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></o>-3.5’ is definitely the prevailing number that is out there for this game. I was hoping for more, but I guess this number does make sense. If the –7 that was temporarily posted early in the week is a true indicator of what the number would have been with a healthy Rodgers, then –3.5 seems about right. As I said before, books value a decent QB as being worth 3 points to a TT. These circumstances are unusual with GB having two extremely inexperienced rookies as backups. So with all things considered, -3.5 is a solid number and tells us that the books don’t expect Rodgers to play tomorrow (or expect him to be injured enough that it won’t matter).<o
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></o>Could Rodgers still play? Yes he could. He could take a few shots and mask the pain enough to play, but I don’t think he will be able to make the shoulder do something that it can’t do. He would be extremely limited in the number of throws he could make and the overall menu of pass plays would be restricted to short patterns because of his injury and three step drops because GB’s O-line has done a lousy job of protecting Rodgers so far this season.<o
></o>Thanks again for taking the time. The all encompassing perspective you bring to your capping is second to none. And your MNF plays aren't bad either... this season. j/k
The only concern I have about ATL is their abysmal road performances. Consecutive 9-24 losses as 7 point dogs worries me a bit. I suppose some of that can be attributed to a rookie QB not being as comfortable away from home (which should wane as the season goes on), but we'll see. That being said, as you outlined, this game will more than likely be decided on the ground with Turner vs. a suspect GB rush D, so Ryan's lack of experience might not play as much a factor, especially if Rodgers can't go.
Best of luck with all your plays, my friend! - Especially ARI and ATL, I'll be tailing
The only concern I have about ATL is their abysmal road performances. Consecutive 9-24 losses as 7 point dogs worries me a bit. I suppose some of that can be attributed to a rookie QB not being as comfortable away from home (which should wane as the season goes on), but we'll see. That being said, as you outlined, this game will more than likely be decided on the ground with Turner vs. a suspect GB rush D, so Ryan's lack of experience might not play as much a factor, especially if Rodgers can't go.
Best of luck with all your plays, my friend! - Especially ARI and ATL, I'll be tailing
Thanks again for taking the time. The all encompassing perspective you bring to your capping is second to none. And your MNF plays aren't bad either... this season. j/k
The only concern I have about ATL is their abysmal road performances. Consecutive 9-24 losses as 7 point dogs worries me a bit. I suppose some of that can be attributed to a rookie QB not being as comfortable away from home (which should wane as the season goes on), but we'll see. That being said, as you outlined, this game will more than likely be decided on the ground with Turner vs. a suspect GB rush D, so Ryan's lack of experience might not play as much a factor, especially if Rodgers can't go.
Best of luck with all your plays, my friend! - Especially ARI and ATL, I'll be tailing
Thank you sir for the kind words.
In regard to ATL's abysmal road performances, it is indeed a bit concerning at first glance. But upon closer examination the reason lies in part to TB's and CAR's ability to shut down ATL's #1 rushing offense. TB held Turner to 42 yards on 14 carries and held the entire team to 105 yards (77 yards below their league leading 182 ypg). And CAR held Tunrer to 56 yards on 18 carries and held the entire team to 118 yards (64 yards below their average ypg). I don't see GB's 26th ranked rush defense having the same success.
The only thing that concerns me at all in this game is that Lambeau magic. But the magic of the mid 1990's is long gone now, and only rears its head once in awhile via crazy turnovers and fluke defensive TDs. Let's hope it stays dormant again tomorrow.
BOL to you my friend!
Any teasers for tomorrow?
Hey JOC. It's always a pleasure to have you drop in. And for whatever reason, I always forget about the Shoe Rule, so I sincerely appreciate the reminders.
I hope my IND pick is not doomed now that I see it is in conflict with the Shoe Rule. But I am banking on Manning being in better sync with his offense after the bye week. Which brings us to BAL and DET. I like them both. TEN scares me more than CHI, so I lean toward playing the DET side more than the BAL side. Orton is as likely to throw three INTs this Sunday as he is likely to repeat last week's performance.
Are you playing all three JOC? Or are you laying low after the 0~1 start to see how the Shoe Rule does this week? I see that the Bye System over in Quantum Leap's thread has gotten off to a rocky start as well. Hopefully this season is just off to a stange beginning, because I'd sure hate to see these golden systems die out!
BOL to you sir. Let's do some yellin' tomorrow! Let us know what you are playing this weekend (both Shoe Rule and non-Shoe Rule).
