A very solid 6-3 last week, bringing the season total to a healthy 13-6-1 +14.80%. The season win percentage of 68% comes on the heels of a great finish to last season, where I went 41-22 65% over the final 10 weeks of the season (regular season and playoffs). The thinking continues to be very strong and hopefully nothing will change this week. All side opinions went 9-4 last week and they are now 35-22-2 61% over the first four weeks this year.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.8
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.0
Tennessee -1.5 NEW ENGLAND 40.5
I went against NE last week and was lucky to come out with a win. Both these teams played misleading final scores last week. NE lost at Washington, 17-20, but out gained Washington 387 yards to 250 yards and 5.6 yppl to only 4.7 yppl for Washington. NE passed the ball, at will on Washington, throwing for 281 yards at 7.2 yps. I said last week I thought Washington would run the ball against NE and they did just that, gaining 116 yards and ran the ball nearly 57% of the time. The NE rush defense has been below average this year, allowing 4.0 ypr to teams averaging 3.8 ypr but they should have much better luck defending Tennessee this week. For the season, Tennessee averages just 2.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr so I doubt Tennessee will get their running game going this week. The strength of the Tennessee offense is their passing game, which is averaging 6.7 yps against teams allowing 6.0 yps. But, they'll face a stiff resistance this week against NE, who allows just 5.1 yps against teams averaging 6.0 yps. Tennessee did have luck throwing against a solid Pittsburgh secondary last week, gaining 158 yards at 9.3 yps. Tennessee only gained 5.1 yppl last week, and only gained 198 yards. They allowed Pittsburgh to gain 376 yards at 5.0 yppl. In other words, the game was played pretty evenly, but Pittsburgh lost the turnover battle, 0-2. The NE offense is below average this year, gaining just 4.6 yppl against teams allowing 4.8 yppl but knowing they like to throw the ball (even though they have been below average in doing so, 5.3 yps against 5.7 yps), they should find a little more success against a Tennessee secondary that allows 6.4 yps against teams averaging 6.2 yps. NE catches Tennessee in a bad scheduling spot and because of that, NE qualifies in a 155-85-8 scheduling situation. Also, Tennessee has won the turnover battle the last couple of games and that sets them up in a bad situation. Teams don't consistently continue to win the turnover battle week after week and when they don't win it, it becomes much harder to win games. Tennessee qualifies in a negative 29-76-1 situation based on that premise. My numbers make Tennessee about a two point favorite but the situations clearly give the value to NE. As long as NE remains a pick 'em to a dog, they'll get my money. NEW ENGLAND 24 TENNESEE 17
BUFFALO -8 Cincinnati 40
It's amazing how good Buffalo looked their first two weeks and how average they have looked the last two weeks. Buffalo has some serious problems running the ball. And it's not just because Travis Henry didn't play last week. They have struggled all year and are only averaging 2.3 ypr against teams allowing 3.1 ypr. Their passing game has been solid, gaining 6.9 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. On defense, their run defense has been below average, allowing 4.5 ypr against teams aveaging 4.2 ypr (a big reason I went against them last week) but their pass defense has been solid, allowing just 4.5 yps against teams averaging 5.2 yps. That might be a little more to their liking this week. Cincinnati has struggled to run the ball, gaining just 3.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.4 ypr and Corey Dillion won't play this week, although I think Rudi Johnson is a capable fill in for them. The strength of Cincinnati's offense is their pass offense, which is averaging 6.1 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. But, they might struggle a bit against the improved Bills secondary. On defense, Cincinnati and Marvin Lewis has shored up their pass defense, which was atrocious last year, and is allowing just 5.7 yps against teams averaging 5.9 yps. It's their rush defense, which has struggled, allowing 4.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. It appears Cincinnati's strengths go right into Buffalo's strength's and their weaknesses into Buffalo's weaknesses. Buffalo qualifies in a week five situation that plays on teams coming off consecutive losses and that situation is now 28-8-1. Buffalo also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation that is 66-115-2 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that, which is only 14-13-0 if they don't qualify in it. My numbers favor Buffalo by about 13 to 17 points in this game. It's also interesting to note Marin Lewis has played four straight unders with the Bengals, which is a trend worth watching. My total numbers on this game are pretty close to the total. BUFFALO 23 CINCINNATI 13
NY GIANTS -1 Miami 37.5
Both teams are coming off a bye week and should be plenty rested. Miami has looked much better since losing their opening game at home to Houston. But, the fact still remains they allowed the Jets in week two to throw for 366 yards at 8.0 yps. That's not too surprising seeing Miami has always played much worse defense on the road than at home. Since 1998, Miami has allowed about 13 points per game at home while allowing about 22 points on the road. Their offense has been pretty steady at home and on the road but the defense has suffered. That could spell even more trouble for a defense that doesn't appear to be playing quite as well this year. Their defense is allowing 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl and is below average against both, the run and the pass. They'll face a Giants offense that is above average, thanks to their running game, which is averaging 4.4 ypr against teams allowing just 3.7 ypr. The Giants passing game has been about average but I don't have too many worries about their passing game getting on track. It will, of course, depend on how well their makeshift line plays, but I have confidence they can turn that around. The surprise of the Miami offense has been their passing offense, which is averaging 6.6 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. The rushing offense has actually been below average, gaining just 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.4 ypr. The Giants defense has been pretty average defending both, the run and the pass, being a little bit better against the run. Miami should be able to move the ball some in this game. But, Miami is in a letdown spot here and the Giants qualify in a 31-8-3 situation based on that. More importantly, NY qualifies in a terrific fundamental rushing situation, which is 128-50-7 since 1983. That situation kicks in this week but would have played Minnesota last week. It is based on the Giants ability to rush the ball against a below average Miami rush defense and the overall decent Giants defense, as a whole, which should limit Miami's success on offense. My numbers support the Giants in this game anywhere from three to six points, giving us plenty of value on them as well. This game also qualifies in a 286-216-11 under situation. My different numbers conflict on whether this game will go over or under the total but I'll lean towards the under because of the situation. NY GIANTS 23 MIAMI 13
GREEN BAY -2 Seattle 45
Reunion number one in the NFL this weekend. Seattle's Mike Holmgren and Ray Rhodes come back to where they enjoyed so much success. At least Rhodes enjoyed his success as a defensive coordinator. He was fired by the Packers after one year as head coach. It's also a reunion for Mike Sherman, who coached with Holmgren in Green Bay and at Seattle before taking the Packers job. I have been saying all year the Packers numbers are actually decent but their home loss to the Vikings (who are undefeated) and their road loss at Arizona have masked some of their numbers. Turnovers, which are a key to any team, are the key to any Packers game. If they avoid them, their talent is good enough to win any game. If they commit them, their talent isn't good enough to overcome their mistakes, especially against good teams. The GB offense is about average this year but they are running the ball very well, averaging 5.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.4 ypr. Their passing offense is still below average, gaining just 6.1 yps against teams allowing 6.4 yps. But the defense has been solid (as it was in the first game against Minnesota - turnovers killed them in that game), allowing just 4.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. The rush defense is actually playing very well, allowing just 4.1 ypr against teams averaging 4.2 ypr. That rush defense took a bit of a hit last week at Chicago but the final numbers are a bit misleading. Kordell Stewart ran for about 70 yards and that was because of good coverage by the secondary (and a lack of quality Bear receivers). Anthony Thomas also had a 67 yard run. Take away those two runs and the Packers allowed only about 44 yards rushing at about 2.9 ypr. You can't discount the big run and the Stewart scrambling but it's not as bad as it might seem. Now they take on Seattle, who is coming off a bye week, rested and ready. The Seahawks have played terrific ball and have taken advantage of a +12 turnover margin. Teams don't consistently continue to win the turnover battle. Oh, a few teams do but it is rare. And when you take away the turnover success the Seahawks have had, they become a pretty ordinary team. Seattle is averaging just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl, including a very below average passing offense, which is gaining just 5.8 yps against 6.6 yps. Their rushing offense has been very solid, gaining 4.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr. On defense, they have played well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. This will be their toughest offense they have faced yet. For Green Bay, this is the toughest defense they will have faced yet. Seattle has been very solid defending the pass, allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.8 yps and average defending the rush, allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.6 ypr. Green Bay qualifies in a 63-20-6 home momentum situation. My numbers are conflicting as to which side has the value but the situation clearly lies in GB's favor. I also like their ability to rush the ball and stop the rush and that could be the difference in this game. Either way, both team's defenses are under rated and their offenses, I believe, are a little over rated. That leads to a high total and plenty of value to the under. My final total on this game is anywhere from 32 to 38 points, giving us plenty of value towards the under. And, with such a high number, things have to go just right for this game to go over the total. Mike Sherman knows Brett Favre's success comes when his team can run the ball and I think he will make it a priority this week. GREEN BAY 21 SEATTLE 17
Oakland -4 CHICAGO 42.5
Well, the Bears are a bad, bad team. Their offense is terrible and their defense isn't very good. The Bears offense is now averaging just 3.9 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl. Their rushing offense has actually been decent, gaining 4.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr but they simply can't throw the ball. They are averaging just 3.3 yps against teams allowing 5.2 yps. That is a product of Kordell Stewart simply not being a very good quarterback and their receivers are below average. The pass defense has been average but their rush defense is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.7 ypr and allowed GB last Monday to gain 187 yards at 7.5 ypr. Take out the Ahman Green 60 yard run and they still allowed 127 yards at 5.3 ypr. It's also about time people start realizing how bad the Raiders are. Oakland is averaging just 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl on offense, making them just an average offense. And it isn't like they have faced a bunch of solid defenses. They have faced San Diego and Cincinnati in that mix. And, even worse, the defense has been atrocious, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including allowing 7.0 yps against 6.1 yps. Can the Bears offense take advantage of that? I'm not sure. Oakland qualifies in a negative letdown situation that is 37-69-3 and this week marks the beginning of my turnover table, which is 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons and that situation plays on Chicago this week. This game also qualifies in a 48-20-4 under situation as well as a 286-216-11 under situation. But, it also qualifies in a 35-11-1 over situation and my final numbers indicate closer to 55-60 points being scored in this game. I can't play the over because of the strong under situations and I can't play the under because of the over situation and the value leaning towards the over. The 'right' play here is on Chicago but it's very hard to play them in this spot. When you compare Gannon to Stewart, Garner to Thomas, Rice and Brown to Terrell and Booker, the decision is pretty easy. Having said that, I am here to warn you the NFL is a contrarian league and this is the exact spot where the contrarian GODS usually shine. I have to see a better Bears team before I can actually play them. OAKLAND 21 CHICAGO 20
CAROLINA -7 New Orleans 37.5
Many people were on Atlanta last week but the match-up was not a very good one for the Falcons last week. Carolina is now 3-0 and has beaten Tampa Bay but their numbers are a little skewed. For the year, Carolina is averaging only 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl and on defense they are allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Those numbers would suggest they are below average on both, offense and defense. Their defense isn't allowing points, only 12 points against teams averaging 18 points, which means they are getting turnovers and playing stingy defense when it counts. One area which has helped them considerably is their rushing offense, which is averaging 4.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr and that is allowing their offense to control the clock. They should find some more success this week against the Saints, who are allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.4 ypr. The Saints pass defense is also below average, allowing 6.8 yps against 6.4 yps but Carolina's passing offense has been dreadful this year, gaining just 4.4 yps against 5.9 yps. New Orleans should have some success moving the ball, as they are gaining 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr. And they'll go against a Carolina defense that is allowing 3.8 ypr against 3.6 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.6 yps. NO qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons. My numbers favor Carolina by around 12 to 14 points but the situation clearly favors NO. I look for NO to bounce back this week and play a closer game than this spread. CAROLINA 21 NEW ORLEANS 17
Minnesota -4.5 ATLANTA 43
This is another tough game for me to call. The situations favor Atlanta in this game but Minnesota is clearly the better team and they have a strong situation in their favor as well. The Vikings offense didn't miss a beat last week without Culpepper and he likely won't play again this week. For the season, Minnesota is now averaging 6.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl. That ranks their offense tops in the league, but unlike other years, their defense is holding their own this year. The defense is allowing just 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl, making them average from a stats standpoint. They are allowing just 14 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. So, the turnovers are certainly going in their favor. For Atlanta, I have said it from week one that their defense is below average. And, now that Michael Vick is hurt, their offense is well below average as well, which makes it very hard to win games. The Atlanta defense is allowing 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while their offense is averaging just 4.3 yppl against 4.7 yppl. The weakest part of their offense is the passing game, which is averaging just 4.9 yps against 5.4 yps. On defense, they are bad against both, the run and the pass, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.9 yps against 6.1 yps. The weakest part of the Vikings defense is their pass defense, which is allowing 5.2 yps against 5.1 yps, which makes them just average defending the pass. Their rush defense is above average, allowing just 4.2 ypr against 4.5 ypr. On offense, the Vikings have been very solid with both, their rush and passing offense. Mike Tice said this week he expects Atlanta to come out and run the ball. Atlanta ran the ball 23 times last week against Carolina and gained 144 yards at 6.3 ypr. Tice also said Atlanta is hurting big time on defense, especially in the secondary. Atlanta qualifies in a number of contrarian situations, which are 26-2-1 (a game five situation where a teams plays in desperation mode), a home underdog contrarian situation, which plays on home teams coming off bad performances against road teams off good performances, and another game five situation, which is 35-6-2. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 and as a contrarian turnover situation, which plays against road teams coming off consecutive games where the turnovers were in their favor. That situation is 76-29-1. Minnesota, on the other hand, qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 499-385-30, including 10-5-1 this year. My numbers also favor Minnesota by around 7 to 11 points. Having said all of that, this is another game where I must warn you the contrarian GODS are to be respected and they favor Atlanta in this game. Injuries and the fundamentals are enough to keep me off Atlanta as a best bet here. MINNESOTA 24 ATLANTA 23
KANSAS CITY -3.5 Denver 45.5
This should be a great game. Denver almost got caught looking ahead last week as they barely escaped with a victory over Detroit, 20-16. Detroit played a good game and actually ran the ball very well on Denver, gaining 144 yards at 6.0 ypr. Meanwhile, in Baltimore, Kansas City was winning but was actually out played, allowing Baltimore to out gain them, 326 yards to 265 yards and 5.0 yppl to 4.5 yppl. The saving grace for KC last week was four Baltimore turnovers. KC is much like Minnesota this year, in that their offense is playing well, but their defense is holding their own. The KC defense is now allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl, which makes their defense average, but that's very good when considering how good their offense is and now their special teams. The KC offense is averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl and they have been successful with both, the run and the pass. Their rushing offense is averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and they'll face a Denver defense that is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The Denver rushing offense has been good this year, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.6 ypr but their passing offense has been slightly below average, gaining just 6.4 yps against 6.5 yps. The Denver passing defense has been solid this year, allowing just 4.6 yps against 5.4 yps but KC should be able to run the ball enough to also be able to throw a little bit. I don't have any situations that favor either team but my numbers favor KC by about five points in this game. Couple that with KC's ability to run the ball and their advantage at special teams, which has played a role in every game, and I'll side with KC. I also have a situation that plays on the under in this game, which is 216-117-6 to the under and my numbers actually only call for either 32 to 42 points scored. Even with the value and the situation, I am reluctant to take the under because of the capabilities of both of these teams to score. Since Vermeil got to KC, they have played three of the four games against Denver over this total. KANSAS CITY 24 DENVER 20
DALLAS -7 Arizona 37
Reunion number two in the NFL this week. Emmit Smith comes home this week. No since in comparing past results between these two teams since Dallas is a completely different team with Bill Parcells at the helm. Their offense is suddenly somewhat explosive. While they didn't reach the 403 yards they had gained in each of their first two games, last week they only gained 360 yards at 5.5 yppl. They allowed the Jets to gain 285 yards at 5.2 yppl. Most impressive for Dallas was their rushing game, which garnered 202 yards rushing at 4.9 ypr. Parcells is quite content to sit on a lead by rushing the ball once he feels they have a comfortable lead. This offense has enough playmakers, as long as Quincy Carter just plays within himself. They have plenty of speed at receiver and Parcells can make the running game work. This team is probably a great play to go over the total when they are playing a good team that will force Dallas to run their offense the whole 60 minutes. For Arizona last week, they played an average game but ran into problems because they couldn't get their defense off the field. The Rams played ball control offense and controlled the clock for over 42 minutes, running 84 plays to only 36 plays for Arizona. Overall, Arizona averaged 4.5 yppl to only 4.8 for the Rams. The Arizona offense is an average offense, gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl but their passing offense is averaging 6.3 yps against 5.8 yps. It's their passing defense that has really hurt them this year, allowing 7.0 yps against 5.5 yps. Their rush defense is allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr but that might be more a product of teams willing to throw rather than run on them. For Dallas, their rush defense has been above average, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr but their passing defense has been a bit suspect, allowing 6.3 yps against 5.8 yps. The Dallas offense has been above average with both, the run and the pass, and they are averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.5 yppl. I like the Arizona receivers to be able to get open and make some plays. That probably won't be enough to win the game but I think they can keep it competitive. Dallas qualifies in a 105-44-4 negative situation but they don't qualify in the better part of that subset, which is 89-23-2 but only 16-21-2 without the subset. Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons. My numbers favor Dallas by about 11 to 17 points but, like I said last week, I consider the situations to be stronger than the value and the situations favor Arizona in this game. The real play I like here is the over. My numbers predict anywhere between 38 to 47 points being scored and I like the match-up here. Like I said, the Dallas pass defense is their weak spot against the Arizona pass offense, which is their strength. They should be able to score some points and the total in this game is only 37 points, which is five points below the league average. Again, a below average result will still result in a chance for the game to go over the total. I like the value and the match-up. Arizona has allowed 42, 38, 13 and 37 points this year. Going back to last year, on the road, they have allowed 37, 42, 37, 30, 49, 38, and 38 points in their last seven games. Those defensive performances alone would put this game over the total most of the time. DALLAS 28 ARIZONA 24
JACKSONVILLE -3 San Diego 42
Another game where I really like the total. I had SD last week and they played a great game, at least from the offensive side of the ball, where they gained 430 yards at 6.1 yppl. SD gained 222 yards on the ground at 5.7 ypr and another 208 yards at 6.5 yps. They also allowed plenty of yards to Oakland, allowing 120 yards rushing at 5.0 ypr and 328 yards at 7.1 yps. Jacksonville moved the ball extremely well again last week, gaining 342 yards at 5.8 yppl and their defense actually played pretty well, allowing Houston just 339 yards at 4.5 yppl. Both teams offenses are above average and both teams defenses are below average to just average. Jacksonville is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including 5.9 yps against 5.6 yps. That should be just fine against a San Diego defense, which has allowed 5.8 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including 6.5 yps against 5.5 yps. For SD, their offense is averaging 5.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl, which includes a healthy 5.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr. That too, should be just fine against a Jacksonville defense, which is allowing 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl but their pass defense is allowing a whopping 6.8 yps against 6.2 yps. The Jacksonville rush defense has played well this year, allowing just 2.8 ypr against 3.5 ypr and that goes against San Diego's strength but their pass defense is so bad that SD should be able to do some damage though the air and open up the running lanes. Both teams get their best receiver back this week as well, with Jimmy Smith coming back for Jacksonville and David Boston coming back for SD. SD qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 and my numbers favor Jacksonville by about three to four points. The situation clearly favors SD in this game and I will side with them based on their strong running game. My total points predicted in this game are 50 and 51 points, which gives us tremendous value to the over and the total in this game is just the average points scored in an NFL game so we are not required to go over a large total. JACKSONVILLE 28 SAN DIEGO 27
PHILADELPHIA -5 Washington 38.5
Washington actually got out played last week but the clock was on their side and they hung on to a victory over NE. Washington gave up 387 yards at 5.6 yppl to only 250 yards at 4.7 yppl for themselves. Now they take on Philly who won their first game last week against Buffalo, 23-13. Philly controlled most of that game but did get out gained, 5.4 yppl to 5.2 yppl. The Redskins have played Philly pretty tough here in Philly, except for last year, when they lost 21-37. But Steve Spurrier is running the ball more this year (57% of the time last week) and that gives his team a chance here. Washington's offense is above average, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while their defense has been just average, allowing 4.8 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Their rush defense has been above average, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.6 ypr. They'll take on a Philly offense, which has been just average, gaining 4.4 yppl against 4.4 yppl but Philly's rushing game has been solid, gaining 5.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Yes, some of that is McNabb but it is there every week and a bona fide threat. Their passing offense is averaging just 3.6 yps against 4.4 yps. On defense, Philly is just average, allowing 4.7 yppl against 4.8 yppl but their rush defense has been strong, allowing just 2.4 ypr against 3.1 ypr. This is a tough game to call and I don't have any situations favoring either side. I'll lean with the points in a game that I think can come down to the wire. My numbers favor Philly by only a couple of points and I like the commitment Spurrier is making to the run this year. PHILADELPHIA 24 WASHINGTON 21
SAN FRANCISCO -7 Detroit 41
The Lions hung tough last week at Denver, before finally losing 16-20. Detroit ran the ball very well last week, gaining 144 yards at 6.0 ypr. Whether that was a lack of effort on Denver's part or Detroit starting to put their offense together, time will only tell. For San Francisco, they were blown out at Minnesota in a game they never had a chance to win. They were blown out early and often. SF allowed 354 yards at 6.7 yppl, including 252 yards passing at 11.0 yps. Yes, a lot of those yards were long throws down the field for Randy Moss to jump and catch, but Charles Rogers has some of those same capabilities. SF ran the ball well, gaining 145 yards rushing at 5.8 ypr but much of that came in the second half when Minnesota had put it in cruise control. And for the year, SF is only averaging 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.9 ypr so they have not run the ball very well at all. The Detroit offense is still very poor, gaining just 4.5 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl. Meanwhile, their defense is also below average, allowing 6.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.6 yppl. Both their run and pass offenses and defenses are below average as well. For SF, their offense is about average, averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Their defense has been pretty solid, allowing just 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl but they struggled when it mattered most against the Rams and were never in the game last week. SF qualifies in a negative situation this week after their poor defensive outing last week. In fact, because of that, they qualify in a 85-138-9 situation, including subsets all the way down to 22-65-2. That is a play against SF. Detroit is also a turnover table play for me and that situation is 747-579-30 over the past 20 seasons. SF also qualifies in another negative scheduling situation, which is a play against situation with a record of 66-115-2, including a subset of that, which is 52-102-2. SF does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 499-385-30, including 10-5-1 this year. My numbers only favor SF by 4 to 7 points. The situations and the value clearly lie with Detroit. Very tough to take Detroit in this situation but they are the side to play here. SAN FRANCISCO 24 DETROIT 20
PITTSBURGH -6.5 Cleveland 42
Pittsburgh couldn't put away Cleveland in any of their three contests last year and I see no reason why they will this year either. Cleveland lost at home to Cincinnati last week but they outplayed Cincinnati, from a stats standpoint, gaining 339 yards to only 295 and 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh played even with Tennessee last week, from a stats standpoint but came up way short on the scoreboard, partly due to a -2 turnover ratio. The Cleveland pass defense has been pretty solid this year, allowing just 4.9 yps against teams averaging 5.7 yps but their rush defense has given up big yards, allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr. But their rush defense shouldn't have too many problems against Pittsburgh because the Steelers rushing offense is averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr. It's the Pittsburgh passing offense that is excelling, averaging 6.6 yps against 5.6 yps but they'll face a very tough Cleveland secondary. Nothing special about the Cleveland offense, which is below average rushing the ball and just average throwing the ball. They'll face a very solid Pittsburgh defense, which is above average against both, the run and the pass. Cleveland has hung tough against every passing team they have played this year, losing by three to Indy, beating SF and losing by seven to Cincinnati. The only team that blew them out was Baltimore and that's because Baltimore can run the ball. I don't have any situations that favor either team but the value does favor Cleveland as my numbers only predict Pittsburgh to win by about 3 to 7 points and the match-up favors Cleveland as well. PITTSBURGH 21 CLEVELAND 17
TAMPA BAY -4 Indianapolis 37.5
Welcome to the TB defense Peyton Manning. Peyton is about to find out what Brett Favre and Jeff Garcia and Michael Vick, etc. have already found out. The TB defense, with their speed, will make a good quarterback look very, very average very quickly. Indy destroyed NO last week, gaining 418 yards at 7.5 yppl but their defense did allow 363 yards at 5.8 yppl. That defense is giving up a lot of yards via the run, allowing 4.8 ypr against teams averaging 3.5 ypr. A lot of that is because of their cover 2 schemes, which give up the rush and take away the pass, were they are allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.8 yps. While the TB offense isn't rushing the ball very well, averaging just 3.1 ypr against 3.8 ypr, they will find success against Indy if they wish to take it because Indy will give them the rushing game. TB can methodically move the ball down field against the Indy defense because their defense is so good, TB doesn't have to worry about playing from behind and being forced to throw the ball. The Indy offense is lead by their passing game, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.2 yps but good luck against the TB pass defense, which is outstanding again this year, allowing just 3.3 yps against 4.3 yps. And, with a not so mobile Manning, things will only get worse for Indy. Indy is on a roll, having covered three straight games, but that's not good news for them this week, as they qualify in a negative letdown situation that is a 23-62-4 play against them. TB also qualifies in a Monday night situation that is 24-6-2 and another Monday night situation, which is 59-24-2. The value in this game actually lies slightly with Indy, because of their performances up to this point, but the situations, in my research are much more important than the value. TAMPA BAY 24 INDIANAPOLIS 13
BEST BETS
YTD 13-6-1 +14.80%
3% NY GIANTS PK
2% NEW ENGLAND +1
2% TAMPA BAY -4
2% SEATTLE/GREEN BAY UNDER 45
2% ARIZONA/DALLAS OVER 37
2% SAN DIEGO/JACKSONVILLE OVER 42
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.8
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.0
Tennessee -1.5 NEW ENGLAND 40.5
I went against NE last week and was lucky to come out with a win. Both these teams played misleading final scores last week. NE lost at Washington, 17-20, but out gained Washington 387 yards to 250 yards and 5.6 yppl to only 4.7 yppl for Washington. NE passed the ball, at will on Washington, throwing for 281 yards at 7.2 yps. I said last week I thought Washington would run the ball against NE and they did just that, gaining 116 yards and ran the ball nearly 57% of the time. The NE rush defense has been below average this year, allowing 4.0 ypr to teams averaging 3.8 ypr but they should have much better luck defending Tennessee this week. For the season, Tennessee averages just 2.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr so I doubt Tennessee will get their running game going this week. The strength of the Tennessee offense is their passing game, which is averaging 6.7 yps against teams allowing 6.0 yps. But, they'll face a stiff resistance this week against NE, who allows just 5.1 yps against teams averaging 6.0 yps. Tennessee did have luck throwing against a solid Pittsburgh secondary last week, gaining 158 yards at 9.3 yps. Tennessee only gained 5.1 yppl last week, and only gained 198 yards. They allowed Pittsburgh to gain 376 yards at 5.0 yppl. In other words, the game was played pretty evenly, but Pittsburgh lost the turnover battle, 0-2. The NE offense is below average this year, gaining just 4.6 yppl against teams allowing 4.8 yppl but knowing they like to throw the ball (even though they have been below average in doing so, 5.3 yps against 5.7 yps), they should find a little more success against a Tennessee secondary that allows 6.4 yps against teams averaging 6.2 yps. NE catches Tennessee in a bad scheduling spot and because of that, NE qualifies in a 155-85-8 scheduling situation. Also, Tennessee has won the turnover battle the last couple of games and that sets them up in a bad situation. Teams don't consistently continue to win the turnover battle week after week and when they don't win it, it becomes much harder to win games. Tennessee qualifies in a negative 29-76-1 situation based on that premise. My numbers make Tennessee about a two point favorite but the situations clearly give the value to NE. As long as NE remains a pick 'em to a dog, they'll get my money. NEW ENGLAND 24 TENNESEE 17
BUFFALO -8 Cincinnati 40
It's amazing how good Buffalo looked their first two weeks and how average they have looked the last two weeks. Buffalo has some serious problems running the ball. And it's not just because Travis Henry didn't play last week. They have struggled all year and are only averaging 2.3 ypr against teams allowing 3.1 ypr. Their passing game has been solid, gaining 6.9 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. On defense, their run defense has been below average, allowing 4.5 ypr against teams aveaging 4.2 ypr (a big reason I went against them last week) but their pass defense has been solid, allowing just 4.5 yps against teams averaging 5.2 yps. That might be a little more to their liking this week. Cincinnati has struggled to run the ball, gaining just 3.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.4 ypr and Corey Dillion won't play this week, although I think Rudi Johnson is a capable fill in for them. The strength of Cincinnati's offense is their pass offense, which is averaging 6.1 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. But, they might struggle a bit against the improved Bills secondary. On defense, Cincinnati and Marvin Lewis has shored up their pass defense, which was atrocious last year, and is allowing just 5.7 yps against teams averaging 5.9 yps. It's their rush defense, which has struggled, allowing 4.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. It appears Cincinnati's strengths go right into Buffalo's strength's and their weaknesses into Buffalo's weaknesses. Buffalo qualifies in a week five situation that plays on teams coming off consecutive losses and that situation is now 28-8-1. Buffalo also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation that is 66-115-2 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that, which is only 14-13-0 if they don't qualify in it. My numbers favor Buffalo by about 13 to 17 points in this game. It's also interesting to note Marin Lewis has played four straight unders with the Bengals, which is a trend worth watching. My total numbers on this game are pretty close to the total. BUFFALO 23 CINCINNATI 13
NY GIANTS -1 Miami 37.5
Both teams are coming off a bye week and should be plenty rested. Miami has looked much better since losing their opening game at home to Houston. But, the fact still remains they allowed the Jets in week two to throw for 366 yards at 8.0 yps. That's not too surprising seeing Miami has always played much worse defense on the road than at home. Since 1998, Miami has allowed about 13 points per game at home while allowing about 22 points on the road. Their offense has been pretty steady at home and on the road but the defense has suffered. That could spell even more trouble for a defense that doesn't appear to be playing quite as well this year. Their defense is allowing 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl and is below average against both, the run and the pass. They'll face a Giants offense that is above average, thanks to their running game, which is averaging 4.4 ypr against teams allowing just 3.7 ypr. The Giants passing game has been about average but I don't have too many worries about their passing game getting on track. It will, of course, depend on how well their makeshift line plays, but I have confidence they can turn that around. The surprise of the Miami offense has been their passing offense, which is averaging 6.6 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. The rushing offense has actually been below average, gaining just 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.4 ypr. The Giants defense has been pretty average defending both, the run and the pass, being a little bit better against the run. Miami should be able to move the ball some in this game. But, Miami is in a letdown spot here and the Giants qualify in a 31-8-3 situation based on that. More importantly, NY qualifies in a terrific fundamental rushing situation, which is 128-50-7 since 1983. That situation kicks in this week but would have played Minnesota last week. It is based on the Giants ability to rush the ball against a below average Miami rush defense and the overall decent Giants defense, as a whole, which should limit Miami's success on offense. My numbers support the Giants in this game anywhere from three to six points, giving us plenty of value on them as well. This game also qualifies in a 286-216-11 under situation. My different numbers conflict on whether this game will go over or under the total but I'll lean towards the under because of the situation. NY GIANTS 23 MIAMI 13
GREEN BAY -2 Seattle 45
Reunion number one in the NFL this weekend. Seattle's Mike Holmgren and Ray Rhodes come back to where they enjoyed so much success. At least Rhodes enjoyed his success as a defensive coordinator. He was fired by the Packers after one year as head coach. It's also a reunion for Mike Sherman, who coached with Holmgren in Green Bay and at Seattle before taking the Packers job. I have been saying all year the Packers numbers are actually decent but their home loss to the Vikings (who are undefeated) and their road loss at Arizona have masked some of their numbers. Turnovers, which are a key to any team, are the key to any Packers game. If they avoid them, their talent is good enough to win any game. If they commit them, their talent isn't good enough to overcome their mistakes, especially against good teams. The GB offense is about average this year but they are running the ball very well, averaging 5.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.4 ypr. Their passing offense is still below average, gaining just 6.1 yps against teams allowing 6.4 yps. But the defense has been solid (as it was in the first game against Minnesota - turnovers killed them in that game), allowing just 4.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. The rush defense is actually playing very well, allowing just 4.1 ypr against teams averaging 4.2 ypr. That rush defense took a bit of a hit last week at Chicago but the final numbers are a bit misleading. Kordell Stewart ran for about 70 yards and that was because of good coverage by the secondary (and a lack of quality Bear receivers). Anthony Thomas also had a 67 yard run. Take away those two runs and the Packers allowed only about 44 yards rushing at about 2.9 ypr. You can't discount the big run and the Stewart scrambling but it's not as bad as it might seem. Now they take on Seattle, who is coming off a bye week, rested and ready. The Seahawks have played terrific ball and have taken advantage of a +12 turnover margin. Teams don't consistently continue to win the turnover battle. Oh, a few teams do but it is rare. And when you take away the turnover success the Seahawks have had, they become a pretty ordinary team. Seattle is averaging just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl, including a very below average passing offense, which is gaining just 5.8 yps against 6.6 yps. Their rushing offense has been very solid, gaining 4.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr. On defense, they have played well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. This will be their toughest offense they have faced yet. For Green Bay, this is the toughest defense they will have faced yet. Seattle has been very solid defending the pass, allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.8 yps and average defending the rush, allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.6 ypr. Green Bay qualifies in a 63-20-6 home momentum situation. My numbers are conflicting as to which side has the value but the situation clearly lies in GB's favor. I also like their ability to rush the ball and stop the rush and that could be the difference in this game. Either way, both team's defenses are under rated and their offenses, I believe, are a little over rated. That leads to a high total and plenty of value to the under. My final total on this game is anywhere from 32 to 38 points, giving us plenty of value towards the under. And, with such a high number, things have to go just right for this game to go over the total. Mike Sherman knows Brett Favre's success comes when his team can run the ball and I think he will make it a priority this week. GREEN BAY 21 SEATTLE 17
Oakland -4 CHICAGO 42.5
Well, the Bears are a bad, bad team. Their offense is terrible and their defense isn't very good. The Bears offense is now averaging just 3.9 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl. Their rushing offense has actually been decent, gaining 4.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr but they simply can't throw the ball. They are averaging just 3.3 yps against teams allowing 5.2 yps. That is a product of Kordell Stewart simply not being a very good quarterback and their receivers are below average. The pass defense has been average but their rush defense is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.7 ypr and allowed GB last Monday to gain 187 yards at 7.5 ypr. Take out the Ahman Green 60 yard run and they still allowed 127 yards at 5.3 ypr. It's also about time people start realizing how bad the Raiders are. Oakland is averaging just 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl on offense, making them just an average offense. And it isn't like they have faced a bunch of solid defenses. They have faced San Diego and Cincinnati in that mix. And, even worse, the defense has been atrocious, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including allowing 7.0 yps against 6.1 yps. Can the Bears offense take advantage of that? I'm not sure. Oakland qualifies in a negative letdown situation that is 37-69-3 and this week marks the beginning of my turnover table, which is 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons and that situation plays on Chicago this week. This game also qualifies in a 48-20-4 under situation as well as a 286-216-11 under situation. But, it also qualifies in a 35-11-1 over situation and my final numbers indicate closer to 55-60 points being scored in this game. I can't play the over because of the strong under situations and I can't play the under because of the over situation and the value leaning towards the over. The 'right' play here is on Chicago but it's very hard to play them in this spot. When you compare Gannon to Stewart, Garner to Thomas, Rice and Brown to Terrell and Booker, the decision is pretty easy. Having said that, I am here to warn you the NFL is a contrarian league and this is the exact spot where the contrarian GODS usually shine. I have to see a better Bears team before I can actually play them. OAKLAND 21 CHICAGO 20
CAROLINA -7 New Orleans 37.5
Many people were on Atlanta last week but the match-up was not a very good one for the Falcons last week. Carolina is now 3-0 and has beaten Tampa Bay but their numbers are a little skewed. For the year, Carolina is averaging only 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl and on defense they are allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Those numbers would suggest they are below average on both, offense and defense. Their defense isn't allowing points, only 12 points against teams averaging 18 points, which means they are getting turnovers and playing stingy defense when it counts. One area which has helped them considerably is their rushing offense, which is averaging 4.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr and that is allowing their offense to control the clock. They should find some more success this week against the Saints, who are allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.4 ypr. The Saints pass defense is also below average, allowing 6.8 yps against 6.4 yps but Carolina's passing offense has been dreadful this year, gaining just 4.4 yps against 5.9 yps. New Orleans should have some success moving the ball, as they are gaining 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr. And they'll go against a Carolina defense that is allowing 3.8 ypr against 3.6 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.6 yps. NO qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons. My numbers favor Carolina by around 12 to 14 points but the situation clearly favors NO. I look for NO to bounce back this week and play a closer game than this spread. CAROLINA 21 NEW ORLEANS 17
Minnesota -4.5 ATLANTA 43
This is another tough game for me to call. The situations favor Atlanta in this game but Minnesota is clearly the better team and they have a strong situation in their favor as well. The Vikings offense didn't miss a beat last week without Culpepper and he likely won't play again this week. For the season, Minnesota is now averaging 6.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl. That ranks their offense tops in the league, but unlike other years, their defense is holding their own this year. The defense is allowing just 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl, making them average from a stats standpoint. They are allowing just 14 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. So, the turnovers are certainly going in their favor. For Atlanta, I have said it from week one that their defense is below average. And, now that Michael Vick is hurt, their offense is well below average as well, which makes it very hard to win games. The Atlanta defense is allowing 5.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while their offense is averaging just 4.3 yppl against 4.7 yppl. The weakest part of their offense is the passing game, which is averaging just 4.9 yps against 5.4 yps. On defense, they are bad against both, the run and the pass, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.9 yps against 6.1 yps. The weakest part of the Vikings defense is their pass defense, which is allowing 5.2 yps against 5.1 yps, which makes them just average defending the pass. Their rush defense is above average, allowing just 4.2 ypr against 4.5 ypr. On offense, the Vikings have been very solid with both, their rush and passing offense. Mike Tice said this week he expects Atlanta to come out and run the ball. Atlanta ran the ball 23 times last week against Carolina and gained 144 yards at 6.3 ypr. Tice also said Atlanta is hurting big time on defense, especially in the secondary. Atlanta qualifies in a number of contrarian situations, which are 26-2-1 (a game five situation where a teams plays in desperation mode), a home underdog contrarian situation, which plays on home teams coming off bad performances against road teams off good performances, and another game five situation, which is 35-6-2. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 and as a contrarian turnover situation, which plays against road teams coming off consecutive games where the turnovers were in their favor. That situation is 76-29-1. Minnesota, on the other hand, qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 499-385-30, including 10-5-1 this year. My numbers also favor Minnesota by around 7 to 11 points. Having said all of that, this is another game where I must warn you the contrarian GODS are to be respected and they favor Atlanta in this game. Injuries and the fundamentals are enough to keep me off Atlanta as a best bet here. MINNESOTA 24 ATLANTA 23
KANSAS CITY -3.5 Denver 45.5
This should be a great game. Denver almost got caught looking ahead last week as they barely escaped with a victory over Detroit, 20-16. Detroit played a good game and actually ran the ball very well on Denver, gaining 144 yards at 6.0 ypr. Meanwhile, in Baltimore, Kansas City was winning but was actually out played, allowing Baltimore to out gain them, 326 yards to 265 yards and 5.0 yppl to 4.5 yppl. The saving grace for KC last week was four Baltimore turnovers. KC is much like Minnesota this year, in that their offense is playing well, but their defense is holding their own. The KC defense is now allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl, which makes their defense average, but that's very good when considering how good their offense is and now their special teams. The KC offense is averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl and they have been successful with both, the run and the pass. Their rushing offense is averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and they'll face a Denver defense that is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The Denver rushing offense has been good this year, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.6 ypr but their passing offense has been slightly below average, gaining just 6.4 yps against 6.5 yps. The Denver passing defense has been solid this year, allowing just 4.6 yps against 5.4 yps but KC should be able to run the ball enough to also be able to throw a little bit. I don't have any situations that favor either team but my numbers favor KC by about five points in this game. Couple that with KC's ability to run the ball and their advantage at special teams, which has played a role in every game, and I'll side with KC. I also have a situation that plays on the under in this game, which is 216-117-6 to the under and my numbers actually only call for either 32 to 42 points scored. Even with the value and the situation, I am reluctant to take the under because of the capabilities of both of these teams to score. Since Vermeil got to KC, they have played three of the four games against Denver over this total. KANSAS CITY 24 DENVER 20
DALLAS -7 Arizona 37
Reunion number two in the NFL this week. Emmit Smith comes home this week. No since in comparing past results between these two teams since Dallas is a completely different team with Bill Parcells at the helm. Their offense is suddenly somewhat explosive. While they didn't reach the 403 yards they had gained in each of their first two games, last week they only gained 360 yards at 5.5 yppl. They allowed the Jets to gain 285 yards at 5.2 yppl. Most impressive for Dallas was their rushing game, which garnered 202 yards rushing at 4.9 ypr. Parcells is quite content to sit on a lead by rushing the ball once he feels they have a comfortable lead. This offense has enough playmakers, as long as Quincy Carter just plays within himself. They have plenty of speed at receiver and Parcells can make the running game work. This team is probably a great play to go over the total when they are playing a good team that will force Dallas to run their offense the whole 60 minutes. For Arizona last week, they played an average game but ran into problems because they couldn't get their defense off the field. The Rams played ball control offense and controlled the clock for over 42 minutes, running 84 plays to only 36 plays for Arizona. Overall, Arizona averaged 4.5 yppl to only 4.8 for the Rams. The Arizona offense is an average offense, gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl but their passing offense is averaging 6.3 yps against 5.8 yps. It's their passing defense that has really hurt them this year, allowing 7.0 yps against 5.5 yps. Their rush defense is allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr but that might be more a product of teams willing to throw rather than run on them. For Dallas, their rush defense has been above average, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr but their passing defense has been a bit suspect, allowing 6.3 yps against 5.8 yps. The Dallas offense has been above average with both, the run and the pass, and they are averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.5 yppl. I like the Arizona receivers to be able to get open and make some plays. That probably won't be enough to win the game but I think they can keep it competitive. Dallas qualifies in a 105-44-4 negative situation but they don't qualify in the better part of that subset, which is 89-23-2 but only 16-21-2 without the subset. Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 over the last 20 seasons. My numbers favor Dallas by about 11 to 17 points but, like I said last week, I consider the situations to be stronger than the value and the situations favor Arizona in this game. The real play I like here is the over. My numbers predict anywhere between 38 to 47 points being scored and I like the match-up here. Like I said, the Dallas pass defense is their weak spot against the Arizona pass offense, which is their strength. They should be able to score some points and the total in this game is only 37 points, which is five points below the league average. Again, a below average result will still result in a chance for the game to go over the total. I like the value and the match-up. Arizona has allowed 42, 38, 13 and 37 points this year. Going back to last year, on the road, they have allowed 37, 42, 37, 30, 49, 38, and 38 points in their last seven games. Those defensive performances alone would put this game over the total most of the time. DALLAS 28 ARIZONA 24
JACKSONVILLE -3 San Diego 42
Another game where I really like the total. I had SD last week and they played a great game, at least from the offensive side of the ball, where they gained 430 yards at 6.1 yppl. SD gained 222 yards on the ground at 5.7 ypr and another 208 yards at 6.5 yps. They also allowed plenty of yards to Oakland, allowing 120 yards rushing at 5.0 ypr and 328 yards at 7.1 yps. Jacksonville moved the ball extremely well again last week, gaining 342 yards at 5.8 yppl and their defense actually played pretty well, allowing Houston just 339 yards at 4.5 yppl. Both teams offenses are above average and both teams defenses are below average to just average. Jacksonville is averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including 5.9 yps against 5.6 yps. That should be just fine against a San Diego defense, which has allowed 5.8 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including 6.5 yps against 5.5 yps. For SD, their offense is averaging 5.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl, which includes a healthy 5.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr. That too, should be just fine against a Jacksonville defense, which is allowing 4.8 yppl against 5.0 yppl but their pass defense is allowing a whopping 6.8 yps against 6.2 yps. The Jacksonville rush defense has played well this year, allowing just 2.8 ypr against 3.5 ypr and that goes against San Diego's strength but their pass defense is so bad that SD should be able to do some damage though the air and open up the running lanes. Both teams get their best receiver back this week as well, with Jimmy Smith coming back for Jacksonville and David Boston coming back for SD. SD qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 747-579-30 and my numbers favor Jacksonville by about three to four points. The situation clearly favors SD in this game and I will side with them based on their strong running game. My total points predicted in this game are 50 and 51 points, which gives us tremendous value to the over and the total in this game is just the average points scored in an NFL game so we are not required to go over a large total. JACKSONVILLE 28 SAN DIEGO 27
PHILADELPHIA -5 Washington 38.5
Washington actually got out played last week but the clock was on their side and they hung on to a victory over NE. Washington gave up 387 yards at 5.6 yppl to only 250 yards at 4.7 yppl for themselves. Now they take on Philly who won their first game last week against Buffalo, 23-13. Philly controlled most of that game but did get out gained, 5.4 yppl to 5.2 yppl. The Redskins have played Philly pretty tough here in Philly, except for last year, when they lost 21-37. But Steve Spurrier is running the ball more this year (57% of the time last week) and that gives his team a chance here. Washington's offense is above average, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while their defense has been just average, allowing 4.8 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Their rush defense has been above average, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.6 ypr. They'll take on a Philly offense, which has been just average, gaining 4.4 yppl against 4.4 yppl but Philly's rushing game has been solid, gaining 5.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Yes, some of that is McNabb but it is there every week and a bona fide threat. Their passing offense is averaging just 3.6 yps against 4.4 yps. On defense, Philly is just average, allowing 4.7 yppl against 4.8 yppl but their rush defense has been strong, allowing just 2.4 ypr against 3.1 ypr. This is a tough game to call and I don't have any situations favoring either side. I'll lean with the points in a game that I think can come down to the wire. My numbers favor Philly by only a couple of points and I like the commitment Spurrier is making to the run this year. PHILADELPHIA 24 WASHINGTON 21
SAN FRANCISCO -7 Detroit 41
The Lions hung tough last week at Denver, before finally losing 16-20. Detroit ran the ball very well last week, gaining 144 yards at 6.0 ypr. Whether that was a lack of effort on Denver's part or Detroit starting to put their offense together, time will only tell. For San Francisco, they were blown out at Minnesota in a game they never had a chance to win. They were blown out early and often. SF allowed 354 yards at 6.7 yppl, including 252 yards passing at 11.0 yps. Yes, a lot of those yards were long throws down the field for Randy Moss to jump and catch, but Charles Rogers has some of those same capabilities. SF ran the ball well, gaining 145 yards rushing at 5.8 ypr but much of that came in the second half when Minnesota had put it in cruise control. And for the year, SF is only averaging 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.9 ypr so they have not run the ball very well at all. The Detroit offense is still very poor, gaining just 4.5 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl. Meanwhile, their defense is also below average, allowing 6.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.6 yppl. Both their run and pass offenses and defenses are below average as well. For SF, their offense is about average, averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Their defense has been pretty solid, allowing just 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl but they struggled when it mattered most against the Rams and were never in the game last week. SF qualifies in a negative situation this week after their poor defensive outing last week. In fact, because of that, they qualify in a 85-138-9 situation, including subsets all the way down to 22-65-2. That is a play against SF. Detroit is also a turnover table play for me and that situation is 747-579-30 over the past 20 seasons. SF also qualifies in another negative scheduling situation, which is a play against situation with a record of 66-115-2, including a subset of that, which is 52-102-2. SF does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 499-385-30, including 10-5-1 this year. My numbers only favor SF by 4 to 7 points. The situations and the value clearly lie with Detroit. Very tough to take Detroit in this situation but they are the side to play here. SAN FRANCISCO 24 DETROIT 20
PITTSBURGH -6.5 Cleveland 42
Pittsburgh couldn't put away Cleveland in any of their three contests last year and I see no reason why they will this year either. Cleveland lost at home to Cincinnati last week but they outplayed Cincinnati, from a stats standpoint, gaining 339 yards to only 295 and 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh played even with Tennessee last week, from a stats standpoint but came up way short on the scoreboard, partly due to a -2 turnover ratio. The Cleveland pass defense has been pretty solid this year, allowing just 4.9 yps against teams averaging 5.7 yps but their rush defense has given up big yards, allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr. But their rush defense shouldn't have too many problems against Pittsburgh because the Steelers rushing offense is averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr. It's the Pittsburgh passing offense that is excelling, averaging 6.6 yps against 5.6 yps but they'll face a very tough Cleveland secondary. Nothing special about the Cleveland offense, which is below average rushing the ball and just average throwing the ball. They'll face a very solid Pittsburgh defense, which is above average against both, the run and the pass. Cleveland has hung tough against every passing team they have played this year, losing by three to Indy, beating SF and losing by seven to Cincinnati. The only team that blew them out was Baltimore and that's because Baltimore can run the ball. I don't have any situations that favor either team but the value does favor Cleveland as my numbers only predict Pittsburgh to win by about 3 to 7 points and the match-up favors Cleveland as well. PITTSBURGH 21 CLEVELAND 17
TAMPA BAY -4 Indianapolis 37.5
Welcome to the TB defense Peyton Manning. Peyton is about to find out what Brett Favre and Jeff Garcia and Michael Vick, etc. have already found out. The TB defense, with their speed, will make a good quarterback look very, very average very quickly. Indy destroyed NO last week, gaining 418 yards at 7.5 yppl but their defense did allow 363 yards at 5.8 yppl. That defense is giving up a lot of yards via the run, allowing 4.8 ypr against teams averaging 3.5 ypr. A lot of that is because of their cover 2 schemes, which give up the rush and take away the pass, were they are allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.8 yps. While the TB offense isn't rushing the ball very well, averaging just 3.1 ypr against 3.8 ypr, they will find success against Indy if they wish to take it because Indy will give them the rushing game. TB can methodically move the ball down field against the Indy defense because their defense is so good, TB doesn't have to worry about playing from behind and being forced to throw the ball. The Indy offense is lead by their passing game, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.2 yps but good luck against the TB pass defense, which is outstanding again this year, allowing just 3.3 yps against 4.3 yps. And, with a not so mobile Manning, things will only get worse for Indy. Indy is on a roll, having covered three straight games, but that's not good news for them this week, as they qualify in a negative letdown situation that is a 23-62-4 play against them. TB also qualifies in a Monday night situation that is 24-6-2 and another Monday night situation, which is 59-24-2. The value in this game actually lies slightly with Indy, because of their performances up to this point, but the situations, in my research are much more important than the value. TAMPA BAY 24 INDIANAPOLIS 13
BEST BETS
YTD 13-6-1 +14.80%
3% NY GIANTS PK
2% NEW ENGLAND +1
2% TAMPA BAY -4
2% SEATTLE/GREEN BAY UNDER 45
2% ARIZONA/DALLAS OVER 37
2% SAN DIEGO/JACKSONVILLE OVER 42
