NFL (Week 5)

[United]

1 unit: 16-12 +2.40
2 unit: 4-8 -9.80

Overall: 20-20 -7.40

Just played 10-7 at 11:00 p.m

Will give reasons tomorrow and my play on the Thursday night game.

Baltimore under 43 1/2 (2)
Tampa Bay under 42 (2)
Atlanta under 48 (2)
Cincy -3 -120 (2)


Philly -4 1/2 (2)
Denver -4 1/2 (2)
NYG -7 (2)

3 team 10 point tease -120 (1)

GB +1 1/2
Philly +5 1/2
Detroit +12 1/2

good luck and bet reasonably

 

[United]

Thursday: 2 team 7 point tease -140 (1)

Indy +10 & over 36

Baltimore under 43 1/2 (2)
Tampa Bay under 42 (2)
Atlanta under 48 (2)
Cincy -3 -120 (2)


Philly -4 1/2 (2)
Denver -4 1/2 (2)
NYG -7 (2)

3 team 10 point tease -120 (1)

GB +1 1/2
Philly +5 1/2
Detroit +12 1/2

 

[United]

Indy +10 & over 36 -140 (1)

Who knows for sure how Luck will play in tis game with the injury and all that. All I know is they says he's playing and if he can't finish or go then Hasselback will be just fine. Houston having some qb controversy as it looks like Mallet will get the start after getting pulled last week for Hoyer. I like the tease for the fact I'm getting 10 points with a team that just owns their division and even going for a record of most division straight w's. I also think the over 36 is attainable with the way the def have been playing, plus both teams success on the over in PT games. Just take a look at Greenbacks thread about this game. Plenty of trends that help back this series and this play for me.

Cleveland @ Baltimore under 43 1/2 (2)

The total has gone under in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore and has gone under in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Baltimore. The total has gone under in 13 of Baltimore's last 19 games at home. Big division game as both teams at 1-3. They know each very well and Baltimore definitely has owned this series in the past. Flacco took a beating last week at Pitt while Cleveland lost a tough one at San Diego. It wasn't their offense, they couldn't stop Rivers when they had to. Anyway, Cleveland has to get away form these slugfests and start playing some D. I think Baltimore D will feed off the Pitt win and get even better. I'm hoping for another low scoring game with a lot of runs and fg's instead of TD's.

Jacksonville @ TB under 42 (2)

Another game between 1-3 teams that have low scoring implications in my view. They are averaging 15.5 and 18 ppg. The d's are giving up 26.8 & 29.3 ppg. The Patriots helped to inflate Jackson stats by laying 51 on them. Both teams are 2-2 on the o/u this year and when they were low scoring games. Jacksonville should have beat Indy losing 16-13. TB losing a couple of lower scoring games on the road. The game features two of the future young qb's in the league and I hope they don't try and out gun each other. To win this game you better play some D and Winston has to quit turning the ball over. I'm hoping that both coaches will be content to have a shot at winning this thing in the 4th quarter. You have to D it up at 1-3 and get very physical to have the shot at going 2-3.

Washington @ Atlanta under 48 (2)

This game should prove to be quite an interesting match-up. I was quite tempted to take the points. Atlanta's hot roll and Wash lack of success on the road kept me off a side. Wash can control the tempo of most games with their offense. It's slow and deliberate, and they seem to get enough first downs to chew up even more clock. Maybe that's why their D has been playing well as they are not out on the field as long as they used to be in past seasons. Wash scoring 19.5 and giving up 19.8 ppg. Atlanta scoring 34.3 ppg and allowing 23.3. They have the total set right on the noise for this game. I just think Atlanta's last 2 games where they scored 48 and 39 against Houston and Dallas was on fire and aided by extra big plays on both offense and defense. Once again, I expect Wash to shorten this game and their is n o doubt their D is much better than what Atlanta has faced the past two games. Atlanta surely has to cool down some don't they? If not I lose again.

Seattle @ Cincy -3 -120 (2)

There is no doubt in my mind that the Seattle offense is not on the same page as last year. Wilson is going to get hurt if he has to keep running the ball all the time and taking hits and sacks. They are not home this week with that crowd that means so much to them. Instead they are the one's in a very hostile environment playing one of the hottest teams in football. Certainly one of the most explosive teams with those receivers and running backs. Seattle is only 1-5-1 ats in its last 7 games. They are certainly not playing the way a lot of us expected. Not to write them off, but definitely a different offense and without Lynch not much of a running game. Cincinnati is 15-4-1 ats in its last 20 games at home and of course 4-0 and 4-0 ats this year. Dalton is making the big plays. Will that keep up this game or will the Seattle D rattle him? I just don't know, but one thing for sure is I have the home crowd and the hot team on my side and I'll take my chances with them.

Saints @ Philly -4 1/2 (2)

I know! How can I bet on this Philly team right now. They just haven't been playing well. The same could be said about the Saints. Brees had the dinks and dunks going last week but I still question his arm strength for throwing the deeper routes. Another battle between teams that are 1-3 and both face division opponents next week. Philly can still be right in the hunt as Dallas is struggling and Wash and the NYG have lost a couple of games. Saints really don't play well on the road and Philly has a terrible ats record lately at home. I'm still going to lay the points and hope they can get it together for at least one game and silence the critics and get back into the hunt. They really played well last week at Washington and had their chances to win that game. The Saints won against a very conservative Dallas team and we all know Weeden just can win games.

Denver -4 1/2 @ Oakland (2)

This looks like the scary game of the week to me and it has got me suckered in. I just have to play the 4-0 and 3-1 ats team against the team that they dominate year after year. Manning should eat this Oak pass Def alive as they are allowing 310 py per game. Their D are giving up 27 ppg. I kind of like Denver D this season and know they are a big part of the nice start the Bronco's are off to this season. Oakland is 1-6 ats in its last 7 games when playing Denver and 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver. I will take Manning over Carr and the Denver D over the Oakland D and lay the points.


Frisco @ NYG -7 (2)

I'm glad that this is the Sunday night game. That should keep the Giants fired up enough to beat a team that appears to be in shambles. I know it's the NFL and every week is different, but this 49er team has gone to hell. Kap just doesn't look the same and his stats prove it. This is all making Harbaugh look like a genius getting out of town and all. The Giants could easily be at 4-0, but reality is 2-2 heading into this game. They are on a bit of a roll and really have looked good. Frisco on the other hand: are 1-9 ats in its last 10 games, just aren't getting the job done. They will show some pride being the marquee game and this spread is a tough one for any NFL team to win by two scores is always asking a lot. Especially at the end of the games when up two scores. That dam prevent D prevents you from winning, or in our cases from covering. Although I've won many of games with the back door open. I'm hoping for a 27-10, 24-14 type of game.

Good luck everyone, bet reasonably, as always any info, opinions, well wishes, welcome in my thread, hope everyone has a + week

 

[United]

Hasselback missed practice Tue/Wed but will be just fine. The Colts let Josh Johnson go, doesn't make sense to me if Luck still hurt that bad and Hass sick. Colts are really pissing me off with the dishonesty shit.

 

[indiana]

United...........strong looking card.............lov the over tonight............going to try your 10 pt. teaser, thank you...........BOL with your action this week............indy

 

[CruzControl]

United,

Why isnt this Oakland line +7,8,9?? Dallas has the best overall Defense in league. Has me leaning to a small Oak ML play.. Vegas will have a huge liability at -4. I feel like they know something we don't here.

Love the Cnn, NYG, Phili plays.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good luck United!

 

[United]

United,

Why isnt this Oakland line +7,8,9?? Dallas has the best overall Defense in league. Has me leaning to a small Oak ML play.. Vegas will have a huge liability at -4. I feel like they know something we don't here.

Love the Cnn, NYG, Phili plays.

Because Oakland is a much better team this year and the Denver let down is possible. Plus the fact the Denver's offense has not been explosive this year.

Not sure what you meant about Dallas. They play the Pats. I think you meant Denver. I lot of people don't have the faith in an old Manning. The dude falls down before he's even hit to protect himself from getting hurt. I'll still take him on my side in most cases. You know it's one of those games that I feel like if I lose I lose, I have the better team giving a reasonable line imo.

good luck Cruz

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Either Raiders win SU in this game or Denver blows them out, IMO, there won't be a Denver win but no cover.

 

[United]

Baltimore under 43 1/2 (2)
Tampa Bay under 42 (2)
Atlanta under 48 (2)
Cincy -3 -120 (2)


Philly -4 1/2 (2)
Denver -4 1/2 (2)
NYG -7 (2)

3 team 10 point tease -120 (1)

GB +1 1/2
Philly +5 1/2
Detroit +12 1/2

add: Colts ML +190 (1) reason: to tempting to pass up +190 on a team that has owned the other team

 

[United]

Thursday: 2 team 7 point tease -140 (1)

Indy +10 & over 36 W

Baltimore under 43 1/2 (2)
Tampa Bay under 42 (2)
Atlanta under 48 (2)
Cincy -3 -120 (2)


Philly -4 1/2 (2)
Denver -4 1/2 (2)
NYG -7 (2)

3 team 10 point tease -120 (1)

GB +1 1/2
Philly +5 1/2
Detroit +12 1/2


add: Colts ML +190 (1) reason: to tempting to pass up +190 on a team that has owned the other team W

add: 2 team 7 point tease -140 (1)

Pack -1 1/2
KC -1 1/2

 

[PatsFanatic]

Great job United

 

[CruzControl]

Because Oakland is a much better team this year and the Denver let down is possible. Plus the fact the Denver's offense has not been explosive this year.

Not sure what you meant about Dallas. They play the Pats. I think you meant Denver. I lot of people don't have the faith in an old Manning. The dude falls down before he's even hit to protect himself from getting hurt. I'll still take him on my side in most cases. You know it's one of those games that I feel like if I lose I lose, I have the better team giving a reasonable line imo.

good luck Cruz

*Yes meant Denver, not Dallas.

I do feel after watching for 4 weeks that Denver is a let down waiting to happen. StL beat Zona last week, and Indy handled Houston last night with Backup with the Flu. Anything can happen.

 

[United]

*Yes meant Denver, not Dallas.

I do feel after watching for 4 weeks that Denver is a let down waiting to happen. StL beat Zona last week, and Indy handled Houston last night with Backup with the Flu. Anything can happen.

You are definitely right about anything can happen. I just don't think either one of these teams will let down as they don't like each other. If Oak takes care of business it will be truly because they prepared better, or just played better than Denver. And in the Houston game last night, the Colts have owned them along with the rest of that division. To me that wasn't a surprise. Until that trend is stopped, and it's been a very strong trend, a person would be up a lot on ML plays. Now when you get the Colts giving to many, and you play them like a fool (talking about myself) you will lose ats. In my opinion if there was a game that could surprise this week it would be Dallas + points. That seem like the easiest line I've seen considering the circumstances and the direction the teams are heading. And you saw what happened to Zona. TO's and being held to fg's, you are right anything can happen in the NFL.

good luck CC

 

[CruzControl]

You are definitely right about anything can happen. I just don't think either one of these teams will let down as they don't like each other. If Oak takes care of business it will be truly because they prepared better, or just played better than Denver. And in the Houston game last night, the Colts have owned them along with the rest of that division. To me that wasn't a surprise. Until that trend is stopped, and it's been a very strong trend, a person would be up a lot on ML plays. Now when you get the Colts giving to many, and you play them like a fool (talking about myself) you will lose ats. In my opinion if there was a game that could surprise this week it would be Dallas + points. That seem like the easiest line I've seen considering the circumstances and the direction the teams are heading. And you saw what happened to Zona. TO's and being held to fg's, you are right anything can happen in the NFL.

good luck CC

I spent about 90 minutes on the Oak/Denv game today. This is not the right time to pull the trigger on Oak. Denver is the right play. Oak has fallen back in the publics good graces and their over valued here. There will be opportunities down the road to make money on them as they are an improving squad.

Your Jax Under beat caught my eye because I'm considering the Over. Here's my thoughts.. Usually when a QB has a bad day throwing INTs then the next game he is usually really reserved as he's been preached to all week to not make mistakes and protect the football. I don't feel Winston is the type of player to hold back and play it safe. Negating this angle. Another factor is Jax lost their leading tackler on defense last week.

Overall We're 75% in agreeance on your card. BoL this weekend!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

You are definitely right about anything can happen. I just don't think either one of these teams will let down as they don't like each other. If Oak takes care of business it will be truly because they prepared better, or just played better than Denver. And in the Houston game last night, the Colts have owned them along with the rest of that division. To me that wasn't a surprise. Until that trend is stopped, and it's been a very strong trend, a person would be up a lot on ML plays. Now when you get the Colts giving to many, and you play them like a fool (talking about myself) you will lose ats. In my opinion if there was a game that could surprise this week it would be Dallas + points. That seem like the easiest line I've seen considering the circumstances and the direction the teams are heading. And you saw what happened to Zona. TO's and being held to fg's, you are right anything can happen in the NFL.

good luck CC

If Romo was playing, then I would say Dallas has a shot to win SU......& the Pats lost 2 years ago at Carolina on Monday night off the bye, so yes, anything can happen.....but I don't see Belichick & Brady losing to Weeden.

I think the Pats +1.5 in a 10 point 3 team teaser is solid.......

But will the Patriots be looking ahead to deflate gate game next Sunday night?

And will.they keep their foot off the pedal.to get ready for next week?

Will be an interesting game to watch for certain!

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

Either Raiders win SU in this game or Denver blows them out, IMO, there won't be a Denver win but no cover.

Agreed. If its not a blow out, Aldon and Mack will get after Manning with just a 4 man pass rush, oddly Manning has tossed 3 picks against those. He's fairing poor this year against the type of defense OAK plays, 3-4 rush 4 rest in coverage. I hate that style of defense, but for some reason Manning been weak against it, 3 picks, not great comp % terrible YPA of course.

OAK offense has a chance, perhaps. OAK #2 offensive line in the NFL per PFF, I think 1st in pass blocking? Does Carr have enough time to find his WRs, TEs, RBs? They got people like Seth Roberts, Reece, Streater all can make plays. Cooper been a tough cover, Carr been going through his reads fast, I think top 10 fastest release time so far, 8th I believe. Just over 2 seconds.

Could that neutralize the pass rush along with his o-line? Very possible.

Not playing this game because I think its a coin flip. If anything maybe take the Raiders and the points, coming off a sour loss they may be hungry and it might be a good matchup for them (or at least as good as one could have against Denver, a very good team). OAK has the o-line quick hitting QB, edge rushers, and several play makers on offense to pull off an upset. They are capable, but I think its a smart no play.

They are also the home team and play much much better at home.

Last year with a team full of non-NFL players they beat KC who was 8-5 at the time, Bills 8-6, and SF 7-6. Must win games for those teams, a scrub team beat them.

This OAK team seems to have a couple of stars on both sides of the ball and decent role players, AVOID for me.

 

[United]

If Romo was playing, then I would say Dallas has a shot to win SU......& the Pats lost 2 years ago at Carolina on Monday night off the bye, so yes, anything can happen.....but I don't see Belichick & Brady losing to Weeden.

I think the Pats +1.5 in a 10 point 3 team teaser is solid.......

But will the Patriots be looking ahead to deflate gate game next Sunday night?

And will.they keep their foot off the pedal.to get ready for next week?

Will be an interesting game to watch for certain!

Pats in a teaser looks solid and the biggest reason I'm staying away from the Pats is because I felt like that on Zona last week and lost. I'm just trying to stick to my first instincts on a game. You watch now, Pats will blow them out. There was a stretch last year that people were wondering and some even thought the Pats were becoming just another team. And then they got hot again. Brady or Weeden? If I bet it would be Brady.

 

[BigCat]

Thanks U BOL with all your action

 

[bradyisgod]

Pats in a teaser looks solid and the biggest reason I'm staying away from the Pats is because I felt like that on Zona last week and lost. I'm just trying to stick to my first instincts on a game. You watch now, Pats will blow them out. There was a stretch last year that people were wondering and some even thought the Pats were becoming just another team. And then they got hot again. Brady or Weeden? If I bet it would be Brady.

Gotta stick with your gut. I always feel that way too on games with high spreads. They are a nightmare for any capper. You bet it and they win by 6. You stay away and they blow them out. It usually works like that! Ha.

Staying away from them is usually a good idea. I bought a point and got it to -7 because I feel the same way you do. BOL this weekend buddy!