NFL Week 5 | Write-up + Analysis | 1 Big Play

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After a strong winning week, I like to keep the next week's bets smaller
just to stay grounded and enjoy the big win. It does not effect the play strength
simply bet sizing will be lower.

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1 Single Play for Week 5 in the NFL:

TENNESSEE (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (3 - 1) - 10/7/2012, 4:25 PM (EST)

TENN +5.5 @ MINN (15 Units)

Opening Line - TENN +5.5

Weather: Dome - 58/F

63% Public on MINN

Spot: Titans (Big Edge)
Minnesota coming off a big emotional divisional win in the Detroit's own stadium.
Now they sit tied for 1st in their division with a great 3-1 (.750) record.
Titans coming off a very tough divisional loss and losing by a large margin (24pts)
now sitting a dreary 1-3 (.250) desperatly needing this win to stay in it.

Relevant Trends
The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
The Vikings are 1-7-0 (12%) ATS as a favorite since 2011.
The Vikings are 0-4-0 (0%) ATS after a win since 2011.

*Keeping trends in recent times because of significant changes to the team.

Write-Up + Analysis
The Titans key defensive Linebacker, McCarthy, is finally back and ready to help
this bad defense out. He's a key player on the defense that coordinates on the field and keeps the defense in check. He will play a vital role in slowing down peterson this weekend. The vikings do have Percy Harvin, the playmaker, as well.
However, I believe the Titans showed some solid improvement compared to how they fared versus the Lions. They gave up 442yds to the lions on that game playing 2 deep and allowing so much in the open field. The defensive coordinator recognized that and fixed it vs the Texans. The titans only allowed 202 passing yds vs Schaub & Co. The only reason it got out of hand was because of the 2 pick sixes. If you watched the game, you saw that the titans were holding strong against them until mid 3rd QTR.

We also saw Chris Johnson showing he's still got it vs a tough texans D'.
Bottom line is I liked what I saw; and if the titans come ready to play and wanting it like they did vs the lions, I really love the +5.5pts here in this spot.
The titans need this win here as they're season is going down the drain without it. If anything, bet on the titans showing up in this spot.

I have the titans undervalued here giving us some nice line value. A key match-up to watch is going to be Minnesota's key LB, Greenway, against CJ. I actually do like Hasselbeck's chances against a weak Vikings secondary. The vikings have had a pretty weak schedule so far going against some mediocre teams besides SF of course. (It was a bad spot for SF in that game and Alex had his extreme rarity interception). They have been getting their special teams to do a lot of carrying.

Christian Ponder
2nd year in the NFL (Plays at his best when behind/in the 2ndhalf)
2011: 70.1QBR - 6.4avg yds per pass 54.3%completion
2012: 97.7QBR - 6.7avg yds per pass 68.3%completion
WK1 (WIN) - JAC (26-23) 105.5QBR
WK2 (LOSS) - @ IND (20-23) 114.6QBR
WK3 (WIN) - SF (24-13) 94.7QBR
WK4 (WIN) - @ DET (20-13) 71.2QBR

Ponder's season thus far has been a really good one. Almost too good.
I'm not buying ponder keeping this up. He's just not that good. This is a great spot for ponder to fall flat and come back to Earth.

Best of Luck with your picks Everyone! (<)<
 

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Very solid write-up. Always appreciate the info and reasons.

Good luck this week.
 

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SAINTS vs Chargers over 52.5 (10 Units)

Great spot for New Orleans coming home to their dome.
Tons of players due for breakout games, Sproles, Graham, Floyd & Gates

Brees going to break Jonny U's record with Sean Payton, Joe Vitt, Loomis all attending the game cheering Brees on. Brees will have even more motivation
to throw TDs and not kick FGs. I absolutely love this play. I rarely ever play totals. I'll only play a total if I absolutely love it.

I've got great match-ups offensively for both teams. Saints giving up shit loads of pts every game and the chargers will stand in the saints way
of an important record and their first win of the season with huge emotional factors boosting the offensive side of the ball.

SD having a weak defensive line will also give brees a lot of time to make solid accurate throws further boosting their offense.

We all know the Saints D' is extremely soft. You can be sure this will be a shoot-out.

Last matchup, Saints vs Chargers easily hit the over.

BOL!
 

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Mis-call on that titans game, I underestimated the player matchups and overestimated the improvement of the titans defense. Also, I couldn't believe how well the vikings D' played especially in that position. I will treat it as a learning experience and hone in on next Sunday.

However, Nice bounce-back with the saints/chargers game.

Best of luck to everyone on Monday Night (<)<
 

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