Best bets went a healthy 3-0 last week to bring the season record to 7-3-1 +7.70% for the year. That keeps me on pace with my 67% record over the final 10 weeks or so last year and hopefully the read on the NFL will continue strong. All side opinions slipped to just 7-7 last week and they are now 26-18-2 59% over the first three weeks this year.
Abbreviations used throughout the write-ups and league averages to compare to.
PF - Average Points Scored (20.5)
YPR - Yards Per Rush (4.0)
YPS - Yards Per Pass (5.6)
YPPL - Yards Per Play (4.9)
Home team in caps.
WASHINGTON -2.5 New England 42.5
NE won their second straight game last week over the Jets but they were far from impressive. Not only are the Patriots hurting big time with key injuries on defense but they were badly out played last week, from a stats perspective. The Jets gained 329 yards at 5.4 yppl to just 294 yards and 4.4 yppl for NE. On top of that, Tom Brady was sacked five times and he is hurting as well. NE hasn't made any adjustments to their deficiencies from last year. They still can't run the ball, averaging just 3.6 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr and their passing game is suffering as well, gaining just 4.6 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. That would be a little more tolerable if they were getting it done on defense but they aren't. While their overall defense is allowing just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl, their rush defense is playing terrible, allowing 4.0 ypr against teams averaging just 3.4 ypr. They held Buffalo to 3.2 ypr but Buffalo only averages 2.4 ypr. They held Philadelphia to 5.8 ypr and they average 6.7 ypr but that is somewhat misleading because of McNabb and Philly also gained 47 yards on an end around play (in the TB game, which inflates their overall rushing averages). And last week they allowed the Jets to average 3.8 ypr but the Jets only average 2.9 ypr. The NE pass defense is playing well, allowing just 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. Everybody thinks the Redskins are a passing team, and they are and it would appear the NE pass defense would be a good match-up for the Redskins pass offense. The Redskins are throwing the ball 56% of the time but a lot of that came last week when they were forced to play catch-up. Prior to last week's catch-up mode game, Washington was only throwing the ball around 43% of the time. We can expect Washington to go back to the rushing game again this week against a poor NE rush defense, especially considering Washington is averaging a healthy 4.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr. On top of that, Washington's defense is playing extremely well, allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. And they are very solid against the pass, allowing 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps. So, if NE is forced to play catch-up, Washington should be able to defend against the pass. And I expect NE to be playing catch-up. Washington qualifies in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 70-29-3. They also qualify in a second fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year and they also qualify in a scheduling situation, which is a letdown situation for NE that is 31-8-3. All the NE injuries almost make this play too obvious but the fundamentals are there. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 42-12-1. WASHINGTON 27 NEW ENGLAND 17
Kansas City -3 BALTIMORE 44
KC sure looks good right about now. The Chiefs are 3-0 and riding sky high, having scored 27 or more points in three straight games, including 40+ in their last two games. Yes, the Chiefs are starting to resemble the 1999 Dick Vermeil led Rams, with their high scoring offense (averaging 37 points per game - Rams averaged 33). And it took quite a while for people to realize the Rams defense that year was pretty solid. It's not taking people as long to realize the Chiefs defense this year is a major improvement over last year's squad. The Chiefs defense is allowing just 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. While the Chiefs passing game has been very solid, averaging 7.5 yps against teams allowing just 5.8 yps, their rushing offense has been just average, gaining just 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr. They'll take on a solid defense this week in Baltimore, who is allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. KC has faced two mediocre to poor defenses, in SD and Houston, who are both below average. They also faced Pittsburgh, who they beat 41-20 but were outplayed in that game, from a stats perspective, gaining just 282 yards at 4.9 yppl. So, this Baltimore defense certainly has a chance to hold down the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs have been scoring so many points because of their special teams play. Again, another similarity to the Vermeil '99 Rams team. The challenge here will be the Baltimore offense against a good Chiefs defense. There is nothing special about Baltimore's passing offense, which has gained less than 100 yards in each of the last two weeks (50 two weeks ago and only 97 last week) and are now averaging just 3.3 yps against teams allowing 4.8 yps this year. Of course, the strength of the Baltimore offense is their running game, which is averaging 6.1 ypr against teams allowing 5.1 ypr. They'll face a Chiefs rush defense, which is allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. I had a lean against Buffalo last week, even though the Bills were playing extremely well on offense and defense but the situation just didn't favor them. This week KC is in the same situation. The Chiefs qualify in a letdown situation, which is 79-40-5 and plays against KC based on their recent offensive success. KC has also won and covered three straight games and because of that, they qualify in a letdown mode that is 62-23-4 and again plays against them. The value here lies with KC, based on their recent success, but I've learned over the years that situations are stronger than the value. Otherwise, like I said last week, we'd have a few teams each year that are undefeated and a few teams that are winless. That's only happened twice, I believe, since 1970 so it's quite obvious that teams play below or above their expected tendencies because of different situations they are put in. This is one of them. BALTIMORE 27 KANSAS CITY 21
BUFFALO -3 Philadelphia 41
I have leaned against Buffalo in each of the first three weeks. I was finally right last week. I have also leaned against Philly in each of their first two weeks and have been right both times. Philly certainly hasn't played very well so far. Their passing game has been nonexistent, averaging just 3.1 yps against teams allowing 4.3 yps but their running game has been very solid (albeit most has come from McNabb and a wide receiver end around for 47 yards), averaging 6.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr. That should set them up rather nice against a Bills defense that is allowing 4.2 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. The Buffalo pass defense has been very solid, allowing just 4.3 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. I don't think Philly will do much through the air but with the threat of McNabb running, that can open up some passing lanes as well. On the other side of the ball, I spoke last week about Buffalo's inability to rush the ball and it showed last week when they averaged just 2.9 ypr on 41 yards. For the season, they are now averaging just 2.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. There hasn't been anything wrong with the Philly rush defense, which is allowing just 2.5 ypr against teams averaging 3.4 ypr. I don't see Buffalo moving the ball on the ground much this week either. The Philly secondary has been hurt by injuries and it is showing up, as the Eagles are allowing 5.9 yps against teams averaging just 5.4 yps. That does play into the hands of Buffalo, who is averaging 7.1 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. Buffalo only averaged 2.6 yps last week against a Miami pass defense that was suspect as well, so I think Philly, in desperation mode, off a bye can do enough to slow down the Bills passing offense. Philly qualifies in some solid situations this week, including a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. They also qualify in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 this year and they qualify in a contrarian situation, which is 106-55-5 that plays on teams coming off of consecutive home games. Again, the value lies with Buffalo, based on early season play, but again, I have discovered the situations out weigh the value in the NFL. With both defenses playing above average, as a whole, and both offense playing below average, as a whole, the lean here would be to the under and my numbers suggest a lower scoring game than 'they' think. PHILADELPHIA 20 BUFFALO 17
PITTSBURGH -3 Tennessee 44
Both teams played well last week and shut down their opponents. Pittsburgh allowed just 4.1 yppl to Cincinnati and Tennessee allowed just 4.6 yppl to New Orleans. The Steelers defense has played well this year and they are allowing just 4.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. The strength of the Tennessee offense is their passing game, which is averaging a solid 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps but they should find it very difficult to throw the ball against the Steelers secondary, which is allowing just 4.1 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. The Steelers rush defense has been above average as well, which will only make it tougher against a Tennessee rushing offense that is well below average, gaining just 2.9 ypr against teams allowing 3.8 ypr. And on offense, Pittsburgh is throwing the ball extremely well again, averaging 6.8 yps against teams allowing just 5.3 yps. Tennessee, meanwhile, is struggling defending the pass, allowing 6.5 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. That's a mismatch for Tennessee and should seal their fate on Sunday. Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation that plays against them and is 167-115-9. My numbers favor Pittsburgh by about 12 points and by three points so there is certainly value with Pittsburgh. This game also qualifies in a 219-117-6 under situation but my numbers show around 49 points being scored, and thus sucking all the value out of the under play. PITTSBURGH 24 TENNESSEE 17
CLEVELAND -4 Cincinnati 41
I don't have anything on the side for this game. There are no situations that apply here. Cincinnati would qualify in my turnover table system but that doesn't begin until next week. For the side, I will lean with the better defense. Cincinnati is allowing just 4.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl, while the Cleveland defense is allowing 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl. This would indicate the Cleveland defense is below average, but from a scoring standpoint, they are only allowing 18 points against teams averaging 25 points, which means they are playing very tough in the redzone and/or getting turnovers that are killing drives. Getting turnovers doesn't last forever and the more yards per play factor will catch up with them. Cincinnati has been just average on offense, gaining 4.7 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl. The Cincinnati rush offense is below par and the Cleveland rush defense is below par, which probably evens out. The Cincinnati pass offense is above average and the Cleveland pass defense is above average, which probably evens those out. The weaker part of the Cleveland offense is their rushing offense, which is also the weaker part of the Cincinnati defense. And the strength of the Cleveland offense, albeit below average, is their passing offense but the strength of the Cincinnati defense is their pass defense. What's all that mean? A lot of strengths and weaknesses, which all even out. But, the better defense, which is Cincinnati, gets my nod. This game would qualify in a solid under situation if the total were 42 or higher. It would qualify in a 219-117-6 under situation at that point. My numbers also predict a very low scoring game, showing only about 25 points being scored in this game. I figure that number will end up a little higher, because, again, the Cleveland defense has been getting favorable results despite giving up yards. And, past history between these two teams here, has shown there has never been a game totaling more than 35 points since Cleveland began playing in 1999. Cincinnati needs the win more. CINCINNATI 17 CLEVELAND 16
MINNESOTA NL San Francisco No Total
Can't give an opinion on the side here without knowing the status of Moss or Culpepper or the line. Moss will play but definitely be less than 100%. Culpepper will probably also play but also be much less than 100%. Depending on what they set the total at, I like the under in this game. The Vikings are playing well and while their offense has been above average, gaining 6.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl (and equally well with both the run and pass), they will face a SF defense that is playing extremely well. Mike Tice said this week this will be the fastest defense they have faced this year. The 49ers defense is allowing just 3.6 yppl against teams averaging 4.1 yppl. So, they haven't faced very good offenses but they are still playing very well. The Vikings defense is still a bit below average, allowing 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.5 yppl but the 49ers offense is also below average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.4 yppl. Tice also said if Culpepper played, all he would have to do is hand the ball off anyway. That's a sure indication he would like to run the ball as much as possible, especially because he considers the 49ers to be a very quick team and knows how big, strong and fast Terrell Owens is and how much trouble he can cause, if given a chance. If the total comes out 42 or higher, this game would qualify in a 219-117-6 under situation. My projected score is about 45 points, but would probably be less with less than healthy key players for the Vikings. In addition, the whole 49er offensive line is banged up and they are having trouble moving the ball. I'll recommend only about 40 points being scored in this game and wait to see what the line and total are before making any further recommendations.
CAROLINA -6 Atlanta 35.5
You'd have to go back to 1997 to find a time when Atlanta has lost in Carolina by more than six points. Last year, Atlanta out scored Carolina by a combined 71-0 score! Of course, that was with Michael Vick, so things will change some. I've said it every week now and it has paid dividends in two of the three weeks and that is the Atlanta defense is below average and without Michael Vick, it leads to even more problems because now their offense is below average as well. Atlanta is allowing 5.9 yppl to teams averaging 5.5 yppl and they are equally bad defending both, the run and the pass. Atlanta is allowing 4.4 ypr to teams averaging 4.0 ypr. That doesn't bode well against a Carolina offense this is gaining 4.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.4 ypr. As a whole, the Carolina defense is below average because their passing game has been so atrocious, gaining just 4.0 yppl against 4.3 yppl (passing offense is 3.6 yps against 5.1 yps). But, because of the poor Atlanta pass defense, Carolina should be able to do some damage and they will definitely do some damage on the ground. Carolina is only allowing 16 points per game but their defense is actually playing below average, from a yards per play standpoint and they have lost some defensive people to injuries already this year. Carolina is allowing 5.1 yppl to teams averaging 4.9 yppl. Their success on defense has come against the run, allowing just 2.7 ypr versus 3.7 ypr. But, their failure on defense has been defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yps against 5.8 yps. Atlanta hasn't done much on offense this year but they have been successful throwing the ball, averaging 5.1 yps versus 4.8 yps. The Atlanta rushing offense has been simply terrible, gaining just 2.8 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Carolina qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. That situation also applies to Carolina in the best subset, which is 131-54-6, including 2-0 this year. The value sides with Atlanta in this game as my numbers only favor Carolina by about five points. Again, the situations are stronger than the value. This total is also very low, because of the reputation of the Carolina defense and because Atlanta's offense played so terrible last week. But, like I said, the Carolina defense isn't playing that well. And Atlanta can throw the ball and should find some success against the Carolina pass defense this week. My numbers suggest about 48 points being scored in this game. The only reason I am not on the over (with such a low total) is because both offenses are below average and could bog down, even though their strengths are going against the opposing team's defensive weaknesses. Lean towards Carolina and the over. CAROLINA 28 ATLANTA 20
ST LOUIS -10.5 Arizona 44.5
Much was made at the beginning of the year about the lack of quality receivers on the Cardinals, including myself thinking the same thing. But, as the season plays out, it looks like that might just be an area of strength for Arizona. Their young receivers are coming along just fine and looking like very good athletes. Arizona is now averaging 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. Their running game has suffered and is only averaging 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr. They should be able to move the ball against a poor Rams defense, which is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, including allowing a whopping 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr. On the other side, the Rams offense is slightly above average, gaining 4.7 yppl against 4.6 yppl. Their strength is their passing game, which is averaging 5.4 yps against 5.1 yps. That passing game should fit just fine against the Cardinals pass defense, which is allowing 7.4 yps against 5.6 yps. The Arizona rush defense is actually playing pretty well, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr. Arizona moved the ball well against a better than average Packers defense last week, gaining 354 yards at 5.7 yppl. They should do the same against the Rams this week. Arizona qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 22-4-2 and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year, including the best subset, which is 131-54-6, and 2-0 this year. Teams who allow 30 or more points in their first two games of the season and then allow 20 or less in a winning effort in their third game are 9-0-1 ats since 1983. There is another variation of that, which is 21-2-2 since 1983 and 9-0-0 in a division game. Arizona hung with the Rams last year, losing 28-30, in a game the Rams probably didn't have much interest in because their playoff hopes were gone. The Rams have now failed to cover the last four times they have been a home favorite by double digits. But this game also sets up well for the total. We have two offenses, which are above average, although just slightly and two defenses, which are well below average. Couple that with a respectable total of 44.5 and this game has a very good shot at going over. My numbers only indicate about 45 points being scored so no value there but no lack of value either. But both teams are throwing the ball well and neither team is stopping the pass very well, which gives us a very good chance of getting the over. ST LOUIS 27 ARIZONA 24
Jacksonville -3 HOUSTON 38.5
Tough game to call as I have situations going both ways. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year, including a subset, which is 303-205-15. Houston, on the other hand, qualifies in a 38-15-0 situation based on their poor defensive performance last week. The Houston offense is actually respectable this year, gaining 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl but their defense has really given ground, now allowing 5.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl. They take on a Jacksonville offense that is also playing above average, gaining 4.9 yppl against 4.6 yppl. But the Jacksonville defense is allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.6 yppl. The weak link in that defense is their pass defense, which is allowing a whopping 7.1 yps against 5.8 yps. Houston is just average throwing the ball but they should have some success in the air. Jacksonville won here last year, 24-21, and quite frankly, I don't see any reason why this game won't be just as high scoring. Both defenses are below average and both offenses are good enough to move the ball. My numbers show well over 50 points being scored in this game. I don't know if it will get that high but I think it stands a good chance to go over the total. I do have an under situation, which would play this game under if it were on grass, and that's enough to keep me off the total in this game. JACKSONVILLE 27 HOUSTON 21
OAKLAND -7 San Diego 43
Both teams are in disarray but SD seems to be in even more disarray. SD lost last week against Baltimore but they actually played a pretty good game, minus the turnovers. SD gained 389 yards last week at 5.1 yppl against a Baltimore defense that is allowing just 4.5 yppl and allowed Baltimore to only gain 4.6 yppl. The Chargers offense, thanks to their running game (4.8 ypr against 3.7 ypr) is actually averaging 4.9 yppl against teams allowing 4.6 yppl. Their defense has let them down, especially in the passing game, allowing 6.2 yps against teams averaging 5.6 yps. Last week they only allowed Baltimore to gain 4.4 yps but Baltimore is only averaging 3.3 yps for the year. But they did hold the Ravens to 4.8 ypr and Baltimore is averaging 6.1 ypr this year. Normally that would be trouble against the Raiders but Oakland's passing game has been terrible this year, averaging just 4.7 yps against 5.4 yps. Their rushing game has been solid, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they'll face a decent SD rush defense, which is allowing just 4.9 ypr against teams averaging 5.2 ypr. What really hurt SD last week was the turnovers. They lost the turnover battle 4 to 2 but it was really 4 to 1 seeing Baltimore picked up one of their own fumbles and ran it for a touchdown. Take away the -3 in turnovers and the game might have played out a little differently. No reason to think Oakland can stop the Chargers from moving the ball, seeing Oakland is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Yes, I know SD is playing without David Boston this week and has multiple injuries on their offensive line and to their receivers. But Vegas also knows this and the way some people talk, this line should be closer to +14 with all the injuries. Vegas doesn't give away gifts like that, especially in the NFL. SD qualifies in a general situation that is 41-15-1 based on taking points between two bad teams coming off of bad performances. Oakland's poor defensive performance last week sets them up in a negative situation that plays against Oakland. That situation is 139-87-9 going against Oakland. Oakland also fits the subsets of that, all the way down to the best subset, which is 56-18-2. My numbers only favor Oakland by about 5.5 points. Good value on SD here against an over rated Oakland team. OAKLAND 21 SAN DIEGO 20
NY JETS -3 Dallas 37
I don't care if the Jets are playing my nephew's junior high football team, they shouldn't be favored against anyone. I'll make a case for the Jets actually playing better than most think but that still doesn't give them the right to be favored. Parcells is now 56-39-2 ats as a dog since 1983, including 45-27-1 on the road and 31-11-1 if his teams winning percentage is .600 or lower and greater than .000. The Jets actually played well last week, gaining 5.4 yppl to only 4.4 yppl for NE but couldn't get the ball into the endzone. The Jets can't run the ball if their life depended on it and they are gaining just 2.9 ypr against 3.5 ypr. That means in short yardage situations, they can't run the ball and they can't run the ball when they get near the endzone, which makes it even harder to get in the endzone. Their passing offense is actually playing very well, averaging 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.6 yps. They should find some success against the Cowboys pass defense, which is allowing 5.8 yps against 5.5 yps. But, unfortunately, the Jets can't stop anybody either. Their defense is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including being below average defending both, the run and the pass. Dallas, despite what you might think, is actually moving the ball very well, averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.6 yppl, including throwing the ball for 7.0 yps against 6.6 yps. Dallas has gained 403 yards in each of their first two games and there isn't any reason they can't have success against the Jets defense. Dallas qualifies in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6, including 6-1-1 this year. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30. Meanwhile, bad teams shouldn't be favored over anyone and the Jets qualify in a negative situation based on that principle, which is a 44-17-1 play against the Jets. I'm amazed at the low total in this game. The total is only 36.5 points. The average score in an NFL game this year is about 41 points combined. We have two above average offenses, from a yards perspective and two below average defenses, from a yards perspective. If the average points scored in an NFL game is 41 points and we have above average offenses and below average defenses, this game should total more than 41 points. And it doesn't hurt to know both teams have been successful throwing the ball and neither has been successful stopping the pass. My projected points in this game, is about 43 points, which gives us plenty of value. Even if I'm wrong about the offenses and defenses, we have some wiggle room because this total is so low. The better team is Dallas and you know they will be prepared with Parcells and especially with his history as a dog. Dallas is better, Jets are too slow on offense and Dallas has too much speed on offense. Wrong team favored. DALLAS 27 NY JETS 21
DENVER -12.5 Detroit 43.5
I won't be playing this game and I'll recommend the contrarian side, although Denver could obviously win this game by more than 20. The Detroit offense is terrible. They are gaining just 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and extremely deficient in both, the run and the pass. Their defense is also well below average, allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl. The rush defense is terrible, allowing 5.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and their pass defense isn't much better, allowing 6.9 yps against 5.5 yps. This doesn't bode well knowing they now have to face Denver, who is averaging 5.1 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl overall on offense. The Denver defense is allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl and is above average in both, the run and pass defense. My numbers favor Denver by about 18-20 points in this game. But, as I have said, situations out weigh value and there is a scheduling situation going against Denver here, with a look ahead to their game at Kansas City next week. Denver qualifies in a play against 115-66-2 situation. This game also qualifies in a terrific under situation, which is 53-17-2 early season under situation. It also qualifies in a 219-117-6 under situation. But, my numbers show about 50 points being scored in this game, which leaves us with too much negative value. The situation is always stronger but the value has to be somewhat reasonable to make the play. I can certainly see this game being low scoring, with Denver just looking to get a lead, and then allow their running game to play out the game. But Joey Harrington might give away a couple of passes, which could lead to easy scores as well. I'll side with the situations but warn there is no value there. DENVER 27 DETROIT 16
Indianapolis -2 NEW ORLEANS 42.5
Tough game for me to call here. E. James might not play, which doesn't help Indy. Indy does qualify in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 this year. The value also seems to lie with Indy. Both teams offenses are playing below average this year, with Indy gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl and NO gaining just 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The Indy pass defense is playing well, allowing just 4.9 yps against 5.4 yps and their rush defense is allowing yards, giving up 4.3 ypr against 3.4 ypr but that might be a product of the cover two, than anything else. Overall, their defense is allowing 4.7 yppl against 4.6 yppl so they are about average, despite only allowing 9 points per game so far against teams averaging 16 points per game. The NO defense is also playing above average, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Two good pretty solid defenses and two offenses playing below average could lead to a lower scoring game. I don't have enough to play the under and I have to feel NO should step up and play a good game here but the situation favors Indy in this game. Lean towards the under and Indy. INDIANAPOLIS 20 NEW ORLEANS 17
Green Bay -4 CHICAGO 41.5
Every year on the Packers schedule, you can be sure of two things. GB will beat Detroit at home and Chicago on the road. After all, GB has now won nine straight games in Chicago with only three of those nine wins coming by less than four points. And in their last 21 meetings against the Bears (home and away), GB has won 18 of those 21, and only six of those 21 games have been won (or lost) by less than four points. Or, in other words, GB has won 15 of those 21 games by more than four points. And it shouldn't be any different this time around. The Bears are simply not a good team. They don't have any playmakers that can give the Packers trouble. Chicago's offense is nonexistent, gaining just 3.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.1 yppl. That doesn't figure to get any better against a good Packers defense that is allowing just 4.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. The Packers are better than average against both, the run and the pass. GB has struggled on offense, but they are getting healthy again and should improve some. The Chicago defense has played pretty well to this point. Chicago is allowing just 5.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.6 yppl. They have been hurt by the pass, allowing 6.7 yps against 6.5 yps but the GB pass offense has been pretty dreadful, gaining just 6.0 yps against 6.5 yps. The Packers should have TE Walls this week, which could open up things for Favre. He should also have a healthier Donald Driver as well. Green Bay qualifies in an early season situation that is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 so far this year. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. And they qualify in some of the better subsets of that situation as well. The Packers run defense has been solid all year, as they are allowing just 3.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. Their pass defense gave up big play after big play last week against Arizona, allowing the Cardinals to throw for 273 yards at 8.8 yps. But Chicago doesn't have the athletic receivers to burn GB. The Bears are only averaging 3.1 yps against teams allowing 4.5 yps and Kordell Stewart doesn't seem to be the answer. My numbers show GB winning this game quite comfortably. GREEN BAY 28 CHICAGO 14
BEST BETS
YTD 7-3-1 +7.70%
3% WASHINGTON -2.5
2% BALTIMORE +3
2% PHILADELPHIA +3
2% ARIZONA +10.5
2% SAN DIEGO +7
2% DALLAS +3
2% GREEN BAY -4 (No higher than -4)
2% ARZ/STL OVER 44.5 (No higher than 45)
2% DAL/NYJ OVER 36.5 (No higher than 37)
Abbreviations used throughout the write-ups and league averages to compare to.
PF - Average Points Scored (20.5)
YPR - Yards Per Rush (4.0)
YPS - Yards Per Pass (5.6)
YPPL - Yards Per Play (4.9)
Home team in caps.
WASHINGTON -2.5 New England 42.5
NE won their second straight game last week over the Jets but they were far from impressive. Not only are the Patriots hurting big time with key injuries on defense but they were badly out played last week, from a stats perspective. The Jets gained 329 yards at 5.4 yppl to just 294 yards and 4.4 yppl for NE. On top of that, Tom Brady was sacked five times and he is hurting as well. NE hasn't made any adjustments to their deficiencies from last year. They still can't run the ball, averaging just 3.6 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr and their passing game is suffering as well, gaining just 4.6 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. That would be a little more tolerable if they were getting it done on defense but they aren't. While their overall defense is allowing just 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl, their rush defense is playing terrible, allowing 4.0 ypr against teams averaging just 3.4 ypr. They held Buffalo to 3.2 ypr but Buffalo only averages 2.4 ypr. They held Philadelphia to 5.8 ypr and they average 6.7 ypr but that is somewhat misleading because of McNabb and Philly also gained 47 yards on an end around play (in the TB game, which inflates their overall rushing averages). And last week they allowed the Jets to average 3.8 ypr but the Jets only average 2.9 ypr. The NE pass defense is playing well, allowing just 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. Everybody thinks the Redskins are a passing team, and they are and it would appear the NE pass defense would be a good match-up for the Redskins pass offense. The Redskins are throwing the ball 56% of the time but a lot of that came last week when they were forced to play catch-up. Prior to last week's catch-up mode game, Washington was only throwing the ball around 43% of the time. We can expect Washington to go back to the rushing game again this week against a poor NE rush defense, especially considering Washington is averaging a healthy 4.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr. On top of that, Washington's defense is playing extremely well, allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. And they are very solid against the pass, allowing 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps. So, if NE is forced to play catch-up, Washington should be able to defend against the pass. And I expect NE to be playing catch-up. Washington qualifies in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 70-29-3. They also qualify in a second fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year and they also qualify in a scheduling situation, which is a letdown situation for NE that is 31-8-3. All the NE injuries almost make this play too obvious but the fundamentals are there. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 42-12-1. WASHINGTON 27 NEW ENGLAND 17
Kansas City -3 BALTIMORE 44
KC sure looks good right about now. The Chiefs are 3-0 and riding sky high, having scored 27 or more points in three straight games, including 40+ in their last two games. Yes, the Chiefs are starting to resemble the 1999 Dick Vermeil led Rams, with their high scoring offense (averaging 37 points per game - Rams averaged 33). And it took quite a while for people to realize the Rams defense that year was pretty solid. It's not taking people as long to realize the Chiefs defense this year is a major improvement over last year's squad. The Chiefs defense is allowing just 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. While the Chiefs passing game has been very solid, averaging 7.5 yps against teams allowing just 5.8 yps, their rushing offense has been just average, gaining just 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr. They'll take on a solid defense this week in Baltimore, who is allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. KC has faced two mediocre to poor defenses, in SD and Houston, who are both below average. They also faced Pittsburgh, who they beat 41-20 but were outplayed in that game, from a stats perspective, gaining just 282 yards at 4.9 yppl. So, this Baltimore defense certainly has a chance to hold down the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs have been scoring so many points because of their special teams play. Again, another similarity to the Vermeil '99 Rams team. The challenge here will be the Baltimore offense against a good Chiefs defense. There is nothing special about Baltimore's passing offense, which has gained less than 100 yards in each of the last two weeks (50 two weeks ago and only 97 last week) and are now averaging just 3.3 yps against teams allowing 4.8 yps this year. Of course, the strength of the Baltimore offense is their running game, which is averaging 6.1 ypr against teams allowing 5.1 ypr. They'll face a Chiefs rush defense, which is allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. I had a lean against Buffalo last week, even though the Bills were playing extremely well on offense and defense but the situation just didn't favor them. This week KC is in the same situation. The Chiefs qualify in a letdown situation, which is 79-40-5 and plays against KC based on their recent offensive success. KC has also won and covered three straight games and because of that, they qualify in a letdown mode that is 62-23-4 and again plays against them. The value here lies with KC, based on their recent success, but I've learned over the years that situations are stronger than the value. Otherwise, like I said last week, we'd have a few teams each year that are undefeated and a few teams that are winless. That's only happened twice, I believe, since 1970 so it's quite obvious that teams play below or above their expected tendencies because of different situations they are put in. This is one of them. BALTIMORE 27 KANSAS CITY 21
BUFFALO -3 Philadelphia 41
I have leaned against Buffalo in each of the first three weeks. I was finally right last week. I have also leaned against Philly in each of their first two weeks and have been right both times. Philly certainly hasn't played very well so far. Their passing game has been nonexistent, averaging just 3.1 yps against teams allowing 4.3 yps but their running game has been very solid (albeit most has come from McNabb and a wide receiver end around for 47 yards), averaging 6.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr. That should set them up rather nice against a Bills defense that is allowing 4.2 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. The Buffalo pass defense has been very solid, allowing just 4.3 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. I don't think Philly will do much through the air but with the threat of McNabb running, that can open up some passing lanes as well. On the other side of the ball, I spoke last week about Buffalo's inability to rush the ball and it showed last week when they averaged just 2.9 ypr on 41 yards. For the season, they are now averaging just 2.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. There hasn't been anything wrong with the Philly rush defense, which is allowing just 2.5 ypr against teams averaging 3.4 ypr. I don't see Buffalo moving the ball on the ground much this week either. The Philly secondary has been hurt by injuries and it is showing up, as the Eagles are allowing 5.9 yps against teams averaging just 5.4 yps. That does play into the hands of Buffalo, who is averaging 7.1 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps. Buffalo only averaged 2.6 yps last week against a Miami pass defense that was suspect as well, so I think Philly, in desperation mode, off a bye can do enough to slow down the Bills passing offense. Philly qualifies in some solid situations this week, including a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. They also qualify in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 this year and they qualify in a contrarian situation, which is 106-55-5 that plays on teams coming off of consecutive home games. Again, the value lies with Buffalo, based on early season play, but again, I have discovered the situations out weigh the value in the NFL. With both defenses playing above average, as a whole, and both offense playing below average, as a whole, the lean here would be to the under and my numbers suggest a lower scoring game than 'they' think. PHILADELPHIA 20 BUFFALO 17
PITTSBURGH -3 Tennessee 44
Both teams played well last week and shut down their opponents. Pittsburgh allowed just 4.1 yppl to Cincinnati and Tennessee allowed just 4.6 yppl to New Orleans. The Steelers defense has played well this year and they are allowing just 4.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. The strength of the Tennessee offense is their passing game, which is averaging a solid 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps but they should find it very difficult to throw the ball against the Steelers secondary, which is allowing just 4.1 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps. The Steelers rush defense has been above average as well, which will only make it tougher against a Tennessee rushing offense that is well below average, gaining just 2.9 ypr against teams allowing 3.8 ypr. And on offense, Pittsburgh is throwing the ball extremely well again, averaging 6.8 yps against teams allowing just 5.3 yps. Tennessee, meanwhile, is struggling defending the pass, allowing 6.5 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. That's a mismatch for Tennessee and should seal their fate on Sunday. Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation that plays against them and is 167-115-9. My numbers favor Pittsburgh by about 12 points and by three points so there is certainly value with Pittsburgh. This game also qualifies in a 219-117-6 under situation but my numbers show around 49 points being scored, and thus sucking all the value out of the under play. PITTSBURGH 24 TENNESSEE 17
CLEVELAND -4 Cincinnati 41
I don't have anything on the side for this game. There are no situations that apply here. Cincinnati would qualify in my turnover table system but that doesn't begin until next week. For the side, I will lean with the better defense. Cincinnati is allowing just 4.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl, while the Cleveland defense is allowing 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl. This would indicate the Cleveland defense is below average, but from a scoring standpoint, they are only allowing 18 points against teams averaging 25 points, which means they are playing very tough in the redzone and/or getting turnovers that are killing drives. Getting turnovers doesn't last forever and the more yards per play factor will catch up with them. Cincinnati has been just average on offense, gaining 4.7 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl. The Cincinnati rush offense is below par and the Cleveland rush defense is below par, which probably evens out. The Cincinnati pass offense is above average and the Cleveland pass defense is above average, which probably evens those out. The weaker part of the Cleveland offense is their rushing offense, which is also the weaker part of the Cincinnati defense. And the strength of the Cleveland offense, albeit below average, is their passing offense but the strength of the Cincinnati defense is their pass defense. What's all that mean? A lot of strengths and weaknesses, which all even out. But, the better defense, which is Cincinnati, gets my nod. This game would qualify in a solid under situation if the total were 42 or higher. It would qualify in a 219-117-6 under situation at that point. My numbers also predict a very low scoring game, showing only about 25 points being scored in this game. I figure that number will end up a little higher, because, again, the Cleveland defense has been getting favorable results despite giving up yards. And, past history between these two teams here, has shown there has never been a game totaling more than 35 points since Cleveland began playing in 1999. Cincinnati needs the win more. CINCINNATI 17 CLEVELAND 16
MINNESOTA NL San Francisco No Total
Can't give an opinion on the side here without knowing the status of Moss or Culpepper or the line. Moss will play but definitely be less than 100%. Culpepper will probably also play but also be much less than 100%. Depending on what they set the total at, I like the under in this game. The Vikings are playing well and while their offense has been above average, gaining 6.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl (and equally well with both the run and pass), they will face a SF defense that is playing extremely well. Mike Tice said this week this will be the fastest defense they have faced this year. The 49ers defense is allowing just 3.6 yppl against teams averaging 4.1 yppl. So, they haven't faced very good offenses but they are still playing very well. The Vikings defense is still a bit below average, allowing 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.5 yppl but the 49ers offense is also below average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.4 yppl. Tice also said if Culpepper played, all he would have to do is hand the ball off anyway. That's a sure indication he would like to run the ball as much as possible, especially because he considers the 49ers to be a very quick team and knows how big, strong and fast Terrell Owens is and how much trouble he can cause, if given a chance. If the total comes out 42 or higher, this game would qualify in a 219-117-6 under situation. My projected score is about 45 points, but would probably be less with less than healthy key players for the Vikings. In addition, the whole 49er offensive line is banged up and they are having trouble moving the ball. I'll recommend only about 40 points being scored in this game and wait to see what the line and total are before making any further recommendations.
CAROLINA -6 Atlanta 35.5
You'd have to go back to 1997 to find a time when Atlanta has lost in Carolina by more than six points. Last year, Atlanta out scored Carolina by a combined 71-0 score! Of course, that was with Michael Vick, so things will change some. I've said it every week now and it has paid dividends in two of the three weeks and that is the Atlanta defense is below average and without Michael Vick, it leads to even more problems because now their offense is below average as well. Atlanta is allowing 5.9 yppl to teams averaging 5.5 yppl and they are equally bad defending both, the run and the pass. Atlanta is allowing 4.4 ypr to teams averaging 4.0 ypr. That doesn't bode well against a Carolina offense this is gaining 4.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.4 ypr. As a whole, the Carolina defense is below average because their passing game has been so atrocious, gaining just 4.0 yppl against 4.3 yppl (passing offense is 3.6 yps against 5.1 yps). But, because of the poor Atlanta pass defense, Carolina should be able to do some damage and they will definitely do some damage on the ground. Carolina is only allowing 16 points per game but their defense is actually playing below average, from a yards per play standpoint and they have lost some defensive people to injuries already this year. Carolina is allowing 5.1 yppl to teams averaging 4.9 yppl. Their success on defense has come against the run, allowing just 2.7 ypr versus 3.7 ypr. But, their failure on defense has been defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yps against 5.8 yps. Atlanta hasn't done much on offense this year but they have been successful throwing the ball, averaging 5.1 yps versus 4.8 yps. The Atlanta rushing offense has been simply terrible, gaining just 2.8 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Carolina qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. That situation also applies to Carolina in the best subset, which is 131-54-6, including 2-0 this year. The value sides with Atlanta in this game as my numbers only favor Carolina by about five points. Again, the situations are stronger than the value. This total is also very low, because of the reputation of the Carolina defense and because Atlanta's offense played so terrible last week. But, like I said, the Carolina defense isn't playing that well. And Atlanta can throw the ball and should find some success against the Carolina pass defense this week. My numbers suggest about 48 points being scored in this game. The only reason I am not on the over (with such a low total) is because both offenses are below average and could bog down, even though their strengths are going against the opposing team's defensive weaknesses. Lean towards Carolina and the over. CAROLINA 28 ATLANTA 20
ST LOUIS -10.5 Arizona 44.5
Much was made at the beginning of the year about the lack of quality receivers on the Cardinals, including myself thinking the same thing. But, as the season plays out, it looks like that might just be an area of strength for Arizona. Their young receivers are coming along just fine and looking like very good athletes. Arizona is now averaging 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. Their running game has suffered and is only averaging 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr. They should be able to move the ball against a poor Rams defense, which is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, including allowing a whopping 5.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr. On the other side, the Rams offense is slightly above average, gaining 4.7 yppl against 4.6 yppl. Their strength is their passing game, which is averaging 5.4 yps against 5.1 yps. That passing game should fit just fine against the Cardinals pass defense, which is allowing 7.4 yps against 5.6 yps. The Arizona rush defense is actually playing pretty well, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr. Arizona moved the ball well against a better than average Packers defense last week, gaining 354 yards at 5.7 yppl. They should do the same against the Rams this week. Arizona qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 22-4-2 and they qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year, including the best subset, which is 131-54-6, and 2-0 this year. Teams who allow 30 or more points in their first two games of the season and then allow 20 or less in a winning effort in their third game are 9-0-1 ats since 1983. There is another variation of that, which is 21-2-2 since 1983 and 9-0-0 in a division game. Arizona hung with the Rams last year, losing 28-30, in a game the Rams probably didn't have much interest in because their playoff hopes were gone. The Rams have now failed to cover the last four times they have been a home favorite by double digits. But this game also sets up well for the total. We have two offenses, which are above average, although just slightly and two defenses, which are well below average. Couple that with a respectable total of 44.5 and this game has a very good shot at going over. My numbers only indicate about 45 points being scored so no value there but no lack of value either. But both teams are throwing the ball well and neither team is stopping the pass very well, which gives us a very good chance of getting the over. ST LOUIS 27 ARIZONA 24
Jacksonville -3 HOUSTON 38.5
Tough game to call as I have situations going both ways. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year, including a subset, which is 303-205-15. Houston, on the other hand, qualifies in a 38-15-0 situation based on their poor defensive performance last week. The Houston offense is actually respectable this year, gaining 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl but their defense has really given ground, now allowing 5.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl. They take on a Jacksonville offense that is also playing above average, gaining 4.9 yppl against 4.6 yppl. But the Jacksonville defense is allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.6 yppl. The weak link in that defense is their pass defense, which is allowing a whopping 7.1 yps against 5.8 yps. Houston is just average throwing the ball but they should have some success in the air. Jacksonville won here last year, 24-21, and quite frankly, I don't see any reason why this game won't be just as high scoring. Both defenses are below average and both offenses are good enough to move the ball. My numbers show well over 50 points being scored in this game. I don't know if it will get that high but I think it stands a good chance to go over the total. I do have an under situation, which would play this game under if it were on grass, and that's enough to keep me off the total in this game. JACKSONVILLE 27 HOUSTON 21
OAKLAND -7 San Diego 43
Both teams are in disarray but SD seems to be in even more disarray. SD lost last week against Baltimore but they actually played a pretty good game, minus the turnovers. SD gained 389 yards last week at 5.1 yppl against a Baltimore defense that is allowing just 4.5 yppl and allowed Baltimore to only gain 4.6 yppl. The Chargers offense, thanks to their running game (4.8 ypr against 3.7 ypr) is actually averaging 4.9 yppl against teams allowing 4.6 yppl. Their defense has let them down, especially in the passing game, allowing 6.2 yps against teams averaging 5.6 yps. Last week they only allowed Baltimore to gain 4.4 yps but Baltimore is only averaging 3.3 yps for the year. But they did hold the Ravens to 4.8 ypr and Baltimore is averaging 6.1 ypr this year. Normally that would be trouble against the Raiders but Oakland's passing game has been terrible this year, averaging just 4.7 yps against 5.4 yps. Their rushing game has been solid, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they'll face a decent SD rush defense, which is allowing just 4.9 ypr against teams averaging 5.2 ypr. What really hurt SD last week was the turnovers. They lost the turnover battle 4 to 2 but it was really 4 to 1 seeing Baltimore picked up one of their own fumbles and ran it for a touchdown. Take away the -3 in turnovers and the game might have played out a little differently. No reason to think Oakland can stop the Chargers from moving the ball, seeing Oakland is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Yes, I know SD is playing without David Boston this week and has multiple injuries on their offensive line and to their receivers. But Vegas also knows this and the way some people talk, this line should be closer to +14 with all the injuries. Vegas doesn't give away gifts like that, especially in the NFL. SD qualifies in a general situation that is 41-15-1 based on taking points between two bad teams coming off of bad performances. Oakland's poor defensive performance last week sets them up in a negative situation that plays against Oakland. That situation is 139-87-9 going against Oakland. Oakland also fits the subsets of that, all the way down to the best subset, which is 56-18-2. My numbers only favor Oakland by about 5.5 points. Good value on SD here against an over rated Oakland team. OAKLAND 21 SAN DIEGO 20
NY JETS -3 Dallas 37
I don't care if the Jets are playing my nephew's junior high football team, they shouldn't be favored against anyone. I'll make a case for the Jets actually playing better than most think but that still doesn't give them the right to be favored. Parcells is now 56-39-2 ats as a dog since 1983, including 45-27-1 on the road and 31-11-1 if his teams winning percentage is .600 or lower and greater than .000. The Jets actually played well last week, gaining 5.4 yppl to only 4.4 yppl for NE but couldn't get the ball into the endzone. The Jets can't run the ball if their life depended on it and they are gaining just 2.9 ypr against 3.5 ypr. That means in short yardage situations, they can't run the ball and they can't run the ball when they get near the endzone, which makes it even harder to get in the endzone. Their passing offense is actually playing very well, averaging 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.6 yps. They should find some success against the Cowboys pass defense, which is allowing 5.8 yps against 5.5 yps. But, unfortunately, the Jets can't stop anybody either. Their defense is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including being below average defending both, the run and the pass. Dallas, despite what you might think, is actually moving the ball very well, averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.6 yppl, including throwing the ball for 7.0 yps against 6.6 yps. Dallas has gained 403 yards in each of their first two games and there isn't any reason they can't have success against the Jets defense. Dallas qualifies in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6, including 6-1-1 this year. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30. Meanwhile, bad teams shouldn't be favored over anyone and the Jets qualify in a negative situation based on that principle, which is a 44-17-1 play against the Jets. I'm amazed at the low total in this game. The total is only 36.5 points. The average score in an NFL game this year is about 41 points combined. We have two above average offenses, from a yards perspective and two below average defenses, from a yards perspective. If the average points scored in an NFL game is 41 points and we have above average offenses and below average defenses, this game should total more than 41 points. And it doesn't hurt to know both teams have been successful throwing the ball and neither has been successful stopping the pass. My projected points in this game, is about 43 points, which gives us plenty of value. Even if I'm wrong about the offenses and defenses, we have some wiggle room because this total is so low. The better team is Dallas and you know they will be prepared with Parcells and especially with his history as a dog. Dallas is better, Jets are too slow on offense and Dallas has too much speed on offense. Wrong team favored. DALLAS 27 NY JETS 21
DENVER -12.5 Detroit 43.5
I won't be playing this game and I'll recommend the contrarian side, although Denver could obviously win this game by more than 20. The Detroit offense is terrible. They are gaining just 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and extremely deficient in both, the run and the pass. Their defense is also well below average, allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl. The rush defense is terrible, allowing 5.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and their pass defense isn't much better, allowing 6.9 yps against 5.5 yps. This doesn't bode well knowing they now have to face Denver, who is averaging 5.1 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl overall on offense. The Denver defense is allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.8 yppl and is above average in both, the run and pass defense. My numbers favor Denver by about 18-20 points in this game. But, as I have said, situations out weigh value and there is a scheduling situation going against Denver here, with a look ahead to their game at Kansas City next week. Denver qualifies in a play against 115-66-2 situation. This game also qualifies in a terrific under situation, which is 53-17-2 early season under situation. It also qualifies in a 219-117-6 under situation. But, my numbers show about 50 points being scored in this game, which leaves us with too much negative value. The situation is always stronger but the value has to be somewhat reasonable to make the play. I can certainly see this game being low scoring, with Denver just looking to get a lead, and then allow their running game to play out the game. But Joey Harrington might give away a couple of passes, which could lead to easy scores as well. I'll side with the situations but warn there is no value there. DENVER 27 DETROIT 16
Indianapolis -2 NEW ORLEANS 42.5
Tough game for me to call here. E. James might not play, which doesn't help Indy. Indy does qualify in an early season situation, which is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 this year. The value also seems to lie with Indy. Both teams offenses are playing below average this year, with Indy gaining just 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl and NO gaining just 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The Indy pass defense is playing well, allowing just 4.9 yps against 5.4 yps and their rush defense is allowing yards, giving up 4.3 ypr against 3.4 ypr but that might be a product of the cover two, than anything else. Overall, their defense is allowing 4.7 yppl against 4.6 yppl so they are about average, despite only allowing 9 points per game so far against teams averaging 16 points per game. The NO defense is also playing above average, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Two good pretty solid defenses and two offenses playing below average could lead to a lower scoring game. I don't have enough to play the under and I have to feel NO should step up and play a good game here but the situation favors Indy in this game. Lean towards the under and Indy. INDIANAPOLIS 20 NEW ORLEANS 17
Green Bay -4 CHICAGO 41.5
Every year on the Packers schedule, you can be sure of two things. GB will beat Detroit at home and Chicago on the road. After all, GB has now won nine straight games in Chicago with only three of those nine wins coming by less than four points. And in their last 21 meetings against the Bears (home and away), GB has won 18 of those 21, and only six of those 21 games have been won (or lost) by less than four points. Or, in other words, GB has won 15 of those 21 games by more than four points. And it shouldn't be any different this time around. The Bears are simply not a good team. They don't have any playmakers that can give the Packers trouble. Chicago's offense is nonexistent, gaining just 3.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.1 yppl. That doesn't figure to get any better against a good Packers defense that is allowing just 4.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. The Packers are better than average against both, the run and the pass. GB has struggled on offense, but they are getting healthy again and should improve some. The Chicago defense has played pretty well to this point. Chicago is allowing just 5.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.6 yppl. They have been hurt by the pass, allowing 6.7 yps against 6.5 yps but the GB pass offense has been pretty dreadful, gaining just 6.0 yps against 6.5 yps. The Packers should have TE Walls this week, which could open up things for Favre. He should also have a healthier Donald Driver as well. Green Bay qualifies in an early season situation that is 95-46-6 and 6-1-1 so far this year. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 498-383-30, including 9-3-1 this year. And they qualify in some of the better subsets of that situation as well. The Packers run defense has been solid all year, as they are allowing just 3.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. Their pass defense gave up big play after big play last week against Arizona, allowing the Cardinals to throw for 273 yards at 8.8 yps. But Chicago doesn't have the athletic receivers to burn GB. The Bears are only averaging 3.1 yps against teams allowing 4.5 yps and Kordell Stewart doesn't seem to be the answer. My numbers show GB winning this game quite comfortably. GREEN BAY 28 CHICAGO 14
BEST BETS
YTD 7-3-1 +7.70%
3% WASHINGTON -2.5
2% BALTIMORE +3
2% PHILADELPHIA +3
2% ARIZONA +10.5
2% SAN DIEGO +7
2% DALLAS +3
2% GREEN BAY -4 (No higher than -4)
2% ARZ/STL OVER 44.5 (No higher than 45)
2% DAL/NYJ OVER 36.5 (No higher than 37)
