Denver @ N.Y. Jets
Denver +8 -107 over N.Y. Jets
Denver +7½ over N.Y. Jets
1:00 PM EST. This week, the drama between Sean Payton and Aaron Rodgers is center stage after Payton made comments about former Broncos coach and current Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s job in Denver, calling it "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL." That quote is memorable because rarely does one of the old boys' coaching clubs so mercilessly throw another of their coaching brethren under the bus, yet do it so spectacularly as Payton did. It was not only unprofessional, but it was personal.
The reason we lead with that and not what has gone on the field so far in 2024 is this: the Jets are led by Hackett’s best friend in the whole wide world, Aaron Rodgers, and the two go back to their days in Green Bay. AR12 hand-picked his boy to be the OC in NYC when he moved on to the Jets before the 2023 season. The “revenge” angle is often used and played up by the media and the market, and when we usually hear about it, we shake it off and actually look to the other side because when it is used, there is often an overreaction.
This game checks so many boxes, as the Jets also won and covered easily in a prime-time game in Week 3 over New England, but that’s like the sprinkle on the sundae. The chocolate sauce is a sweet situational spot in which the Jets head to jolly old England in Week 5 to face the Vikings at Tottenham Stadium. If you think Aaron Rodgers cares more about revenge than he does hanging out across the pond enhancing his own image, we have a bridge in Brooklyn we’d like you to have a look at.
The Broncos did make an impact with a lopsided, 26-7 win in Tampa last week, no doubt, but that is but one game, and there is just so much more working against the Jets both from a market perspective and the reality of their future schedule. There are going to be spots where the favorite starts to storm back, as the dogs are barking early in the season, but this game is not one of them.
Play Denver +8 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
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L.A. Rams @ Chicago
Chicago -3 -103 over L.A. Rams
Chicago -3 over L.A. Rams
1:00 PM EST. The 1-2 Rams faced their toughest opponent of the year last Sunday and did so without any wide receivers and walked away a winner over the 49ers. That resonates in a fickle market. In Week 1, the Rams took the Lions in Detroit to OT before losing. In between those two games, the Rams were destroyed by Arizona. The Rams have had two good showings in three weeks and could easily be 2-1. Point is, their stock is up this week.
The 1-2 Bears have zero good showing. That, too, resonates. The Bears lost to the Colts last week, they lost to Houston the week prior and in Week 1, Chicago beat Tennessee 24-17 in what has to be considered the most undeserving win of the year this far. The Bears had 64 yards passing the entire game against the Titans and they didn’t have much more on the ground. The Bears were completely dominated and won. The Bears have looked horrible. Last week’s loss to the Colts was packed with miserable quarterbacking and sketchy coaching decisions by the losing side. Point is, Chicago’s stock is down, especially after Colts QB Anthony Richardson tried to gift wrap the game to the Bears, not once, twice or three times but a bunch of times. The Bears should be an ugly 0-3.
Catching a FG against a team that looks awful certainly looks appealing but oddsmakers don’t see it that way one bit. Already without his top two receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford looks lost most of the time while the Bears have an abundance of tools in the tool chest but have not figured out how to operate their offense. This line strongly suggests the Bears wake up this week. Most people are familiar with the term "It Team" heading into the start of the season, right? The teams that are generating buzz. The teams that analysts are picking to make a surprising run. This year’s “It” teams were Houston, Chicago and Jacksonville. All three have looked rancid and now that the market is sick of those aforementioned three teams and are jumping off, it just might be the right time to jump on. We’ll put that to the test here. Play Chicago -3 (RIsking 2.06 units to win 2).
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Cleveland @ Las Vegas
Las Vegas +121 over Cleveland
Las Vegas over Cleveland
4:25 PM EST. In case Raiders QB Gardner Minshew forgot just how fickle life as a starting pivot can be in the NFL, the contrasting ends to his games in Weeks 2 and 3 certainly hammered that point home. In Week 2, Minshew was a hero, leading the Raiders back in Baltimore on a drive that set up the game-winning field goal in the biggest upset of the week. Then, in Week 3, Minshew found himself on the bench at the end of the game after he was sat with Las Vegas losing to the woeful Panthers at The Death Star on The Strip.
His QB was not the only player that coach Pierce was critical of in light of the Raiders' loss to the Panthers, as he called out members of his locker room for not showing up on Sunday, quipping that, “There were definitely some players that made business decisions.” Pierce’s team was embarrassed, at home to the Panthers and if a team is supposed to embody their head coach, we’d expect a bounce back here, as Pierce is as proud as they come and his team ran through a wall for him after he took over last season. The Raiders are better than they are being credited for here, but that’s what happens when you lose to the pitiful Panthers.
As for the Browns, there is little doubt about who the starting QB is, and that’s because Deshaun Watson has over $200 million in guaranteed money being paid to him, so until he breaks down or is thrown in prison, he’s going to be the man under center. The Browns aren’t without their share of drama too, but it’s mostly related to Watson and his off-the-field issues.
On the field, the Browns offensive line is in shambles, as Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller is heading to IR and they lost two tackles in their loss to the Giants on Sunday. In that game, Watson went just 21-for-37 passing for 196 yards and two touchdowns, while the Browns posted just 217 yards of total offense. Watson was also on his back all day, with the Brownies beleaguered O-Line allowing him to be sacked eight times. After three weeks, the Brownies rank 31st in total offense, and 30th in passing yards per game. Win, lose or draw, the Browns might be the worst team in football, which makes the Raiders the only option here.
Play Raiders +121 (Risking 2 units).
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Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay +107 over Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST. Losing is never good, but losing to a previously winless team that has little to no market appeal is even worse. That’s where we find Tampa Bay after Week 3, where they lost to Denver at The Pirate Ship, 26-7. That final score was a stunner, as the Bucs were one of the trendier picks in the market after a 2-0 start. When a team loses like that, there is a tendency in the market to switch sides and fade that team the next time out. Similarly, when a team like Philly is heavily faded and still wins, it’s tempting to want to back them in the following week.
We call that “zig-zagging,” and this game has it working on two fronts. The market eagerly faded the Eagles after their Monday Night Football collapse at home to the Falcons in Week 2. Philadelphia played the high-scoring Saints in New Orleans last Sunday, but there were no fireworks. Instead, the Iggles grinded out a last-minute 15-12 win, limiting the Saints' Derek Carr to just 142 yards with one TD and an INT after he lit it up in the first two weeks of the season. While the Eagles needed a major with 1:01 remaining to go ahead for good, Jalen Hurts passed for over 300 yards, and Saquon Barkley added another 147 on the ground with two TDs.
Those numbers are impressive, and the win was nice, but it’s important not to overreact to the week-to-week happenings of the Eagles. It might be tempting to back Philly here after a “statement” win, especially considering what happened to the Bucs in Week 3, but that would be the wrong move. Instead, the prudent play is to fade the Eagles after their win and back the Bucs after their loss.
Play: Tampa Bay +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)
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Minnesota @ Green Bay
Green Bay -3 +106 over Minnesota
Green Bay -3 over Minnesota
1:00 PM EST. The Packers are not the story here, although they do have a potentially tough choice to make in light of both Jordan Love’s sprained left MCL and the positive (2-0) results with backup Malik Willis under center. Love was injured in Week 1, and Willis, who was picked up for a seventh-round pick and a ham sandwich, has filled in admirably, running the plays asked of him and limiting his mistakes. Willis did not light it up, but he was better than some of the shade that’s being thrown his way as a “system QB” would suggest. There is no official word on if Love will start this week, but even if he does, he probably will not be 100%. The Packers are now 2-1 after losing to the Eagles in Brazil and winning games as an underdog vs. the Colts and Titans with Willis at the helm.
We are now living in the “Sam Darnold: MVP Candidate” timeline, as he has the Vikings out to a red-hot start, going 3-0 both Straight Up and Against the Spread (ATS). The Vikings have seen their preseason Super Bowl odds drop from 80-1 to 25-1 or so depending on the sportsbook. At one popular radio sports show this week after Week 3, there was a segment where the hosts were “buying and selling,” and one of them made the case that the Vikings are a good “buy low” candidate considering the torrid start. We cannot stress enough that now is not the time to “buy” on the Vikes; it would be time to “sell” because their stock is through the roof.
Darnold is a great story, and it’s easy to forget that he’s younger than Joe Burrow, but there is also a reason that he’s bounced around the league for so long. He’s shown he can play, just not at a high level for an extended period. As for how the Vikings got here, they whooped up on the Giants in Week 1 (28-6), then surprised the 49ers at home, 23-17, as a +4-point underdog before Molly whopping Houston 34-7 as a small +1½-point home pooch. Now the Vikings are an underdog in Green Bay, which appears mighty enticing on the surface, but we can assure you there is a reason the Packers are favored here. Whether the Vikings are overpriced, the Pack are underpriced or the oddsmakers are “taking a position”, Green Bay is the prudent play because the line says so. If you’re looking for the cherry on top of this sundae, the Vikings play the Jets in London next week, setting up a potential “look ahead" spot as well.
Play Green Bay -3 +106 (Risking 2 units).
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Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Indianapolis +103 over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST. If you bet the Colts in Week 2 against Green Bay, you probably wanted to puke blood after watching them. After it was announced that Jordan Love was going to miss the game, the inefficient market hammered the Colts and the inefficient market once again got destroyed. If that game didn’t turn the market off of the Colts, last week’s lousy win over the Bears surely must have. If you got lucky and bet the Colts last week, chances are you are not going to make that mistake again this week. If you watched the Colts last week, this is what you saw:
Anthony Richardson began the shenanigans with an interception that he carelessly threw into the end zone. This was the first of two picks he threw in this game, with the second being a pass he launched over his receiver’s head by 15 yards. This turnover allowed the Bears to kick a field goal. Richardson inexplicably didn’t do much running, as he scrambled just eight times. Luckily for Richardson, he was able to prevail because the Bears made more mistakes and now the Colts will have to face the great defense of the 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have knocked off Atlanta, Denver and the Chargers while allowing a mere 26 points in three games combined. That’s an average of just over 8 points per game. If you bet against the Steelers this year, you have lost because the Steelers are now 3-0 Against the Spread (ATS). If you bet the Steelers this week, you may indeed win but don’t you think you’re a little late to the Pittsburgh Steelers ticket cashing party? Pittsburgh’s stock is a little too high right now. The Steelers will play its third road game in four weeks and will do so without any urgency. Furthermore, the Steelers host the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football next week, which puts them in the perfect position to come up lame. Aside from that, they’re not very good to begin with. Let's not forget Pittsburgh was projected to win 6 or 7 games this year. Man, the Colts check a lot of boxes this week and absolutely get our nod.
Play Indy +103 (Risking 2 units).
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Denver +8 -107 over N.Y. Jets
Denver +7½ over N.Y. Jets
1:00 PM EST. This week, the drama between Sean Payton and Aaron Rodgers is center stage after Payton made comments about former Broncos coach and current Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s job in Denver, calling it "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL." That quote is memorable because rarely does one of the old boys' coaching clubs so mercilessly throw another of their coaching brethren under the bus, yet do it so spectacularly as Payton did. It was not only unprofessional, but it was personal.
The reason we lead with that and not what has gone on the field so far in 2024 is this: the Jets are led by Hackett’s best friend in the whole wide world, Aaron Rodgers, and the two go back to their days in Green Bay. AR12 hand-picked his boy to be the OC in NYC when he moved on to the Jets before the 2023 season. The “revenge” angle is often used and played up by the media and the market, and when we usually hear about it, we shake it off and actually look to the other side because when it is used, there is often an overreaction.
This game checks so many boxes, as the Jets also won and covered easily in a prime-time game in Week 3 over New England, but that’s like the sprinkle on the sundae. The chocolate sauce is a sweet situational spot in which the Jets head to jolly old England in Week 5 to face the Vikings at Tottenham Stadium. If you think Aaron Rodgers cares more about revenge than he does hanging out across the pond enhancing his own image, we have a bridge in Brooklyn we’d like you to have a look at.
The Broncos did make an impact with a lopsided, 26-7 win in Tampa last week, no doubt, but that is but one game, and there is just so much more working against the Jets both from a market perspective and the reality of their future schedule. There are going to be spots where the favorite starts to storm back, as the dogs are barking early in the season, but this game is not one of them.
Play Denver +8 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
=====================================================
L.A. Rams @ Chicago
Chicago -3 -103 over L.A. Rams
Chicago -3 over L.A. Rams
1:00 PM EST. The 1-2 Rams faced their toughest opponent of the year last Sunday and did so without any wide receivers and walked away a winner over the 49ers. That resonates in a fickle market. In Week 1, the Rams took the Lions in Detroit to OT before losing. In between those two games, the Rams were destroyed by Arizona. The Rams have had two good showings in three weeks and could easily be 2-1. Point is, their stock is up this week.
The 1-2 Bears have zero good showing. That, too, resonates. The Bears lost to the Colts last week, they lost to Houston the week prior and in Week 1, Chicago beat Tennessee 24-17 in what has to be considered the most undeserving win of the year this far. The Bears had 64 yards passing the entire game against the Titans and they didn’t have much more on the ground. The Bears were completely dominated and won. The Bears have looked horrible. Last week’s loss to the Colts was packed with miserable quarterbacking and sketchy coaching decisions by the losing side. Point is, Chicago’s stock is down, especially after Colts QB Anthony Richardson tried to gift wrap the game to the Bears, not once, twice or three times but a bunch of times. The Bears should be an ugly 0-3.
Catching a FG against a team that looks awful certainly looks appealing but oddsmakers don’t see it that way one bit. Already without his top two receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford looks lost most of the time while the Bears have an abundance of tools in the tool chest but have not figured out how to operate their offense. This line strongly suggests the Bears wake up this week. Most people are familiar with the term "It Team" heading into the start of the season, right? The teams that are generating buzz. The teams that analysts are picking to make a surprising run. This year’s “It” teams were Houston, Chicago and Jacksonville. All three have looked rancid and now that the market is sick of those aforementioned three teams and are jumping off, it just might be the right time to jump on. We’ll put that to the test here. Play Chicago -3 (RIsking 2.06 units to win 2).
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Cleveland @ Las Vegas
Las Vegas +121 over Cleveland
Las Vegas over Cleveland
4:25 PM EST. In case Raiders QB Gardner Minshew forgot just how fickle life as a starting pivot can be in the NFL, the contrasting ends to his games in Weeks 2 and 3 certainly hammered that point home. In Week 2, Minshew was a hero, leading the Raiders back in Baltimore on a drive that set up the game-winning field goal in the biggest upset of the week. Then, in Week 3, Minshew found himself on the bench at the end of the game after he was sat with Las Vegas losing to the woeful Panthers at The Death Star on The Strip.
His QB was not the only player that coach Pierce was critical of in light of the Raiders' loss to the Panthers, as he called out members of his locker room for not showing up on Sunday, quipping that, “There were definitely some players that made business decisions.” Pierce’s team was embarrassed, at home to the Panthers and if a team is supposed to embody their head coach, we’d expect a bounce back here, as Pierce is as proud as they come and his team ran through a wall for him after he took over last season. The Raiders are better than they are being credited for here, but that’s what happens when you lose to the pitiful Panthers.
As for the Browns, there is little doubt about who the starting QB is, and that’s because Deshaun Watson has over $200 million in guaranteed money being paid to him, so until he breaks down or is thrown in prison, he’s going to be the man under center. The Browns aren’t without their share of drama too, but it’s mostly related to Watson and his off-the-field issues.
On the field, the Browns offensive line is in shambles, as Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller is heading to IR and they lost two tackles in their loss to the Giants on Sunday. In that game, Watson went just 21-for-37 passing for 196 yards and two touchdowns, while the Browns posted just 217 yards of total offense. Watson was also on his back all day, with the Brownies beleaguered O-Line allowing him to be sacked eight times. After three weeks, the Brownies rank 31st in total offense, and 30th in passing yards per game. Win, lose or draw, the Browns might be the worst team in football, which makes the Raiders the only option here.
Play Raiders +121 (Risking 2 units).
==========================================================================
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay +107 over Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST. Losing is never good, but losing to a previously winless team that has little to no market appeal is even worse. That’s where we find Tampa Bay after Week 3, where they lost to Denver at The Pirate Ship, 26-7. That final score was a stunner, as the Bucs were one of the trendier picks in the market after a 2-0 start. When a team loses like that, there is a tendency in the market to switch sides and fade that team the next time out. Similarly, when a team like Philly is heavily faded and still wins, it’s tempting to want to back them in the following week.
We call that “zig-zagging,” and this game has it working on two fronts. The market eagerly faded the Eagles after their Monday Night Football collapse at home to the Falcons in Week 2. Philadelphia played the high-scoring Saints in New Orleans last Sunday, but there were no fireworks. Instead, the Iggles grinded out a last-minute 15-12 win, limiting the Saints' Derek Carr to just 142 yards with one TD and an INT after he lit it up in the first two weeks of the season. While the Eagles needed a major with 1:01 remaining to go ahead for good, Jalen Hurts passed for over 300 yards, and Saquon Barkley added another 147 on the ground with two TDs.
Those numbers are impressive, and the win was nice, but it’s important not to overreact to the week-to-week happenings of the Eagles. It might be tempting to back Philly here after a “statement” win, especially considering what happened to the Bucs in Week 3, but that would be the wrong move. Instead, the prudent play is to fade the Eagles after their win and back the Bucs after their loss.
Play: Tampa Bay +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)
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Minnesota @ Green Bay
Green Bay -3 +106 over Minnesota
Green Bay -3 over Minnesota
1:00 PM EST. The Packers are not the story here, although they do have a potentially tough choice to make in light of both Jordan Love’s sprained left MCL and the positive (2-0) results with backup Malik Willis under center. Love was injured in Week 1, and Willis, who was picked up for a seventh-round pick and a ham sandwich, has filled in admirably, running the plays asked of him and limiting his mistakes. Willis did not light it up, but he was better than some of the shade that’s being thrown his way as a “system QB” would suggest. There is no official word on if Love will start this week, but even if he does, he probably will not be 100%. The Packers are now 2-1 after losing to the Eagles in Brazil and winning games as an underdog vs. the Colts and Titans with Willis at the helm.
We are now living in the “Sam Darnold: MVP Candidate” timeline, as he has the Vikings out to a red-hot start, going 3-0 both Straight Up and Against the Spread (ATS). The Vikings have seen their preseason Super Bowl odds drop from 80-1 to 25-1 or so depending on the sportsbook. At one popular radio sports show this week after Week 3, there was a segment where the hosts were “buying and selling,” and one of them made the case that the Vikings are a good “buy low” candidate considering the torrid start. We cannot stress enough that now is not the time to “buy” on the Vikes; it would be time to “sell” because their stock is through the roof.
Darnold is a great story, and it’s easy to forget that he’s younger than Joe Burrow, but there is also a reason that he’s bounced around the league for so long. He’s shown he can play, just not at a high level for an extended period. As for how the Vikings got here, they whooped up on the Giants in Week 1 (28-6), then surprised the 49ers at home, 23-17, as a +4-point underdog before Molly whopping Houston 34-7 as a small +1½-point home pooch. Now the Vikings are an underdog in Green Bay, which appears mighty enticing on the surface, but we can assure you there is a reason the Packers are favored here. Whether the Vikings are overpriced, the Pack are underpriced or the oddsmakers are “taking a position”, Green Bay is the prudent play because the line says so. If you’re looking for the cherry on top of this sundae, the Vikings play the Jets in London next week, setting up a potential “look ahead" spot as well.
Play Green Bay -3 +106 (Risking 2 units).
=========================================================
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Indianapolis +103 over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST. If you bet the Colts in Week 2 against Green Bay, you probably wanted to puke blood after watching them. After it was announced that Jordan Love was going to miss the game, the inefficient market hammered the Colts and the inefficient market once again got destroyed. If that game didn’t turn the market off of the Colts, last week’s lousy win over the Bears surely must have. If you got lucky and bet the Colts last week, chances are you are not going to make that mistake again this week. If you watched the Colts last week, this is what you saw:
Anthony Richardson began the shenanigans with an interception that he carelessly threw into the end zone. This was the first of two picks he threw in this game, with the second being a pass he launched over his receiver’s head by 15 yards. This turnover allowed the Bears to kick a field goal. Richardson inexplicably didn’t do much running, as he scrambled just eight times. Luckily for Richardson, he was able to prevail because the Bears made more mistakes and now the Colts will have to face the great defense of the 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have knocked off Atlanta, Denver and the Chargers while allowing a mere 26 points in three games combined. That’s an average of just over 8 points per game. If you bet against the Steelers this year, you have lost because the Steelers are now 3-0 Against the Spread (ATS). If you bet the Steelers this week, you may indeed win but don’t you think you’re a little late to the Pittsburgh Steelers ticket cashing party? Pittsburgh’s stock is a little too high right now. The Steelers will play its third road game in four weeks and will do so without any urgency. Furthermore, the Steelers host the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football next week, which puts them in the perfect position to come up lame. Aside from that, they’re not very good to begin with. Let's not forget Pittsburgh was projected to win 6 or 7 games this year. Man, the Colts check a lot of boxes this week and absolutely get our nod.
Play Indy +103 (Risking 2 units).
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