A 2-1-1 week last week. That brings the season total to 4-3-1 +0.70%. All side opinions and best bets went 9-6-1, after going 10-5-1 during week one. That brings the two week total to 19-11-2 this season on all side opinions and best bets.
Home team in caps.
NEW ENGLAND -6.5 NY Jets 37.5
Jets have won five straight games here. You would have to go back seven years since NE actually defeated the Jets by more than today's spread and only twice in the last ten years have they done so. Having said all of that, this Jets team is not good. And they now have injuries in the secondary, which won't help them. The Jets managed a whopping 1.9 ypr last week and 21 yards rushing. They did pass the ball very well against Miami, throwing for 366 yards and 8.0 yps. For the year, the Jets are now averaging 2.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.1 ypr and they are passing for 6.6 yps (which looks good) but that's against teams allowing 6.5 yps, making them about average throwing the ball. On defense the Jets are allowing 4.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.3 ypr but their pass defense has been horrible, allowing 7.6 yps against teams averaging just 7.0 yps. Their numbers, overall, suggest a pretty average team. They take on a NE team who beat Philly last week, but NE was +4 in the turnover margin, which greatly aided their efforts. NE is still struggling to run the ball and they only gained 2.1 ypr last week on 62 yards. For the year, they are very average, gaining 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 3.4 ypr. And they aren't throwing the ball any better, averaging just 4.6 yps against teams allowing 5.0 yps. On defense, their pass defense continues to excel, allowing 4.5 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps, which will make it very difficult for the Jets to throw the ball. But their rush defense is once again giving up yards as they are allowing 4.1 ypr against teams averaging 3.7 ypr. I have no situations on this game but it's very difficult to cover a fairly large number with a poor offense and series history dictates the Jets here as well. NEW ENGLAND 17 NY JETS 14
Pittsburgh -4.5 CINCINNATI 45.5
Nothing too telling with this series history. Pittsburgh has done well here in Cincinnati and, on occasion, Cincinnati has pulled the upset. I had KC last week and got the cover, but truth be told, Pittsburgh did well, from a stats standpoint. The Pittsburgh problems last week were due to special teams (a returned kick off for a touchdown) and an interception returned for a touchdown (although Pittsburgh had one themselves). But the Steelers gained 380 yards at 5.7 yppl to Kansas City's 282 at 4.9 yppl. The Steelers defense has played pretty well this year, allowing just 4.1 yppl to teams averaging 5.1 yppl. Their passing game has also been very solid, averaging 6.8 yps against teams allowing 5.3 yps. But their rushing game is just average, gaining 3.2 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. Overall their offense is gaining 5.4 yppl against teams allowing 4.6 yppl. They now take on a Cincinnati team who is 0-2. But this isn't the same 0-2 Bengals team that we are used to. Yes, Cincinnati lost to Denver in week one, 10-30, but they played the Broncos pretty tough, from a stats standpoint, gaining 4.7 yppl to only 4.4 yppl for Denver. In that game, they held the Denver passing game to just 109 yards passing at 4.2 yps. Last week they did it again to Oakland, limiting the Raiders to just 103 yards passing at 3.7 yps. They did allow the Raiders to rush for 134 yards at 6.7 ypr and for the season, they are allowing teams to rush for 5.3 ypr but against teams averaging 5.3 ypr so they are about average defending the rush. Their pass defense, as mentioned, is allowing just 3.9 yps against teams averaging 5.2 yps. I have no situations favoring either team in this game and the match-up could favor Cincinnati with their pass defense against the Steelers good passing offense. But, as much as I don't think Cincinnati is as bad as the past, I still side with Pittsburgh, until Cincinnati proves they can actually win these games. PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 18
INDIANAPOLIS -8 Jacksonville 43
Another game with not much interest for me from a side perspective. Indy has looked decent so far, based on their convincing win over Tennessee last week, but they struggled the week before against, what I consider to be a poor Cleveland team. Jacksonville played Indy tough in their last game of the season last year, losing here 13-20, but they were manhandled by Buffalo last week, allowing 371 yards at 6.1 yppl, while only gaining 287 yards at 4.0 yppl. Jacksonville allowed Buffalo to throw for 328 yards at 12.1 yps. For the season, they are now allowing 7.3 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps. They'll face Indy, who is averaging 5.6 yps against teams allowing 5.2 yps so Indy should have some success in the air. The Jacksonville offense is just above average, gaining 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl and they'll face an Indy defense, which is slightly below average, allowing 4.6 yppl against teams averaging just 4.3 yppl. I've never been a big fan of laying points with a below average defense and that is what we have here with Indy. We also get a little extra value with the Jacksonville debacle last week and Indy's big win over Tennessee last week. Indy qualifies in a letdown situation that is 105-44-4 playing against them. Unfortunately, Jacksonville doesn't qualify in the best part of that situation to make them a play. The situation is very strong, however, and should be enough to keep you off of Indy. My projected final score also indicates only about a seven point victory for Indy. This game also qualifies in a 74-42-3 under situation, including a subset that is 52-17-2. And it also qualifies in a terrific 216-117-6 under situation. Using my yards scoring predictor, I only show about 32 points being scored in this game. That's enough to get me on the under here. INDIANAPOLIS 21 JACKSONVILLE 14
Minnesota -3.5 DETROIT 46.5
Don't look now but the Vikings have actually won five straight games. Included in their five game winning streak (dating back to last year's final three games) is a season ending win here over Detroit, 38-36. I had the over in that game as well as the Lions. Detroit got a score and missed the two point conversion on the next to last play of the game for the cover. The Vikings out played Detroit in that game but couldn't hold on to the cover. Mike Tice said last week his team has had troubles with the Bears linebackers in the past. This week, he said he thinks his team has the advantage over the linebackers and their secondary. He said they have had trouble pass blocking against the Lions front four but doesn't feel they have had problems rushing the ball. The Vikings offense has been good this year, gaining 5.4 yppl against teams allowing just 5.0 yppl and they are above average in both, rushing and passing. Most surprisingly is their defense, which is allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.3 yppl. Now, that doesn't look that good but they are allowing just 19 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game. The reason is they are not turning the ball over so frequently like they did last year. Couple a somewhat respectable defense with the decline in turnovers and this defense can hold it's own, especially when the offense is playing ball control offense. The problems for the Lions are the same problems as last year. Yes, they won their first game of the year over Arizona but they were badly out played in that game, from a stats standpoint. They were able to return punts and get defensive scores to make the final score look worse than it actually was. But their offensive is terrible as is their defense. On defense, the Lions have allowed 5.9 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. That's not too far from the Minnesota defense but the difference is their defense is allowing 28 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game. This simply means their offense is also contributing to their poor defense. Both the Lions rush defense and their pass defense are horrible. On offense, Detroit is averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. If Minnesota doesn't turn the ball over and help Detroit, there is no way Detroit can win this game. I'm very well aware that Detroit has played some close games against Minnesota here over the years and many of the games Minnesota has won here were only by two points or so. And, I'm also aware that every game played here for the past nine years has totaled at least 46 points. And this game could also go over the total rather easily but I won't be there this time. First, as stated, the Vikings defense is actually playing a little better as of late. And if their offense isn't turning the ball over to help the Detroit offense, Detroit may not score as many points. The Detroit offense simply isn't very good. And while Mike Tice will do whatever it takes to score, he is very happy running the ball more, to keep Culpepper out of situations that will hurt his game. Tice does expect a high scoring game but there are some things this year that are not as favorable as last year when I took the over. Minnesota also qualifies in some great situations, including an early season situation, which is 93-46-5 and that situation went 4-1-1 last week. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation (which went 7-0-1 last week) and is now 496-380-30 including the best subset of that situation which is 132-54-7 (3-0-1 last week with Indy, KC, Denver and SF). If the Vikings don't turn the ball over, the Lions defense isn't good enough to consistently stop them. And the Vikings defense is improved enough to stop a very below average Lions offense. MINNESOTA 30 DETROIT 17
TENNESSEE -4.5 New Orleans 44.5
I've seen quite a few people that like Tennessee this week. I don't understand that. I realize NO tanked it again at the end of the season last year and their defense gave up 20 or more points in every game last year except for the last game and allowed 27 points in their first game this year at Seattle. But, they actually played much better than the final score indicated in that first game. A -4 in turnovers against Seattle did them in. NO actually out-gained Seattle 4.8 yppl to 4.6 yppl in that game. Last week NO looked very solid, albeit against Houston, but they gained 292 yards at 5.2 yppl while limiting Houston to just 258 yards and 4.0 yppl. Yes, I realize it's just Houston but Houston was much more effective against Miami the week before. This is a good match-up for NO. Their offense is just above average this year, gaining 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 4.8 yppl but their defense has actually played well. They are allowing 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr, which makes their rush defense about average. That's all they'll need against a poor Tennessee rushing team, which is averaging just 2.7 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. Their pass defense has been very solid, allowing just 4.5 yps against teams gaining 6.3 yps. Tennessee has played very solid rush defense this year, allowing just 3.7 ypr against teams gaining 4.6 ypr but their pass defense is well below average again this year, allowing 6.6 yps against teams averaging 5.4 yps. NO passing offense hasn't been great but it is above average and should be able to take advantage of a poor Tennessee pass defense. Aside from that, NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation which is 496-380-30 but they don't qualify in any of the subsets of that situation. Tennessee also qualifies in a play against 138-85-9 negative momentum situation including a subset of that, which is 102-52-7. There's not quite enough for me to play NO in this game but I definitely lean their way and will lean towards the over as well. NEW ORLEANS 27 TENNESSEE 24
Tampa Bay -4 ATLANTA 35.5
I don't have any situations for this game. TB beat Atlanta rather handily in both games last year. I went against Atlanta in week one and had a lean against them in week two. One of the reasons I went against Atlanta is their defense. And, although they beat me in week one (against Dallas), they were out played from a stats standpoint. Last week, Washington not only beat them but beat them in the yards game as well. Washington gained 435 yards at 5.7 yppl and Atlanta didn't move the ball against Washington, gaining just 283 yards at 4.3 yppl. Yes, TB lost the game last week and didn't play great. They still are having trouble running the ball, gaining just 2.8 ypr against teams allowing 2.6 ypr and their defense is allowing 5.2 ypr but that's against teams averaging 5.1 ypr so it's about average. Their pass defense is allowing only 3.3 yps but that's against teams averaging 3.3 yps, which makes their pass defense about average. The Atlanta defense is really struggling, allowing 6.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.7 yppl and they are equally as bad defending both, the rush and the pass. I'll take the better defense. TAMPA BAY 17 ATLANTA 10
Kansas City -7.5 HOUSTON 43.5
Tough game for me to call. I have pretty solid situations on both teams in this game. I had KC last week and got the win but the game was closer than the final score, at least from a yards perspective. KC had big special teams play and scored with their defense (as did Pittsburgh) but Pittsburgh out-gained them in the game 380-282 and 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl. Houston, who looked so good in week one against Miami, looked more like the Houston we know from last year last week, allowing David Carr to be sacked five times (none against Miami) and only gaining 258 yards at 4.0 yppl. The KC rushing offense is actually below average, gaining just 4.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.7 ypr but their passing offense has been fantastic, gaining 6.7 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. And on defense is where KC has made their greatest improvements, allowing just 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. That only makes their defense about average but that is a great improvement over last year's defense. The Houston defense is also just average, allowing 5.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl. The big difference between these two teams, of course, is the offense. Houston's offense is averaging just 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl. Houston qualifies in a couple of contrarian situations, which are 43-12 and 34-8. But KC also qualifies in a scheduling situation which is 34-8-3 and if this line would go down to -7, KC would also qualify in a very strong fundamental rushing situation. My numbers slightly favor KC in this game with a lean towards the over. Too many factors going both ways but I will lean with the better team. KANSAS CITY 27 HOUSTON 17
WASHINGTON -2.5 NY Giants 43
Washington only won by two last week but they severely outplayed Atlanta. The Redskins gained 435 yards on offense at 5.7 yppl and limited the Falcons to just 283 yards at 4.0 yppl. And Washington did it from both, the rushing game (125 yards at 4.0 ypr) and the passing game (310 yards at 6.9 yps). This week they take on a Giants team who comes off a terrible showing against Dallas. Not only did the Giants lose but they looked bad in doing so. They only gained 309 yards on offense at a measly 4.4 yppl. The Giants passed for 256 yards but at only 4.8 yps and their running game was nonexistent, gaining just 53 yards at 3.1 ypr. They shut down the Dallas running game, allowing just 107 yards at 3.0 ypr but Dallas was able to move the ball through the air, gaining 296 yards at 6.7 yps. Both of these team's defenses have played well this year with Washington allowing just 3.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl and the Giants allowing just 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. Both teams are also below average on offense right now. There isn't any history in this series that favors one team or the other, when playing in Washington. They have both had their share of wins here. Washington does qualify in a negative momentum situation, which is a 138-85-9 play against the Redskins. The Redskins don't qualify in the play against better subset of that situation. Meanwhile the Giants qualify in a bounce back situation that is 121-67-4 after winning with the Packers last week. My numbers favor the Giants slightly, as do the situations. The situations favor the Giants and so do I. NY GIANTS 23 WASHINGTON 20
Green Bay -7.5 ARIZONA 43
The season is only two weeks old and it can't end fast enough for the Cardinals. This is a real bad team. Last week, Arizona shot themselves in the foot for the second straight week, turning the ball over six times to zero for Seattle. Not only did the turnovers hurt Arizona but they couldn't move the ball with any consistency at all and Seattle moved the ball, at will, on Arizona. Seattle gained 323 yards at 6.2 yppl while Arizona could only muster 286 yards at 4.0 yppl. While football doesn't work this way, Arizona actually outplayed Detroit in week one but couldn't over come their multiple mistakes and then last week Green Bay dominated a bad Detroit team. That doesn't say much for Arizona's chances this week. I read something last week that I thought was very true. Someone said the Packers will win these games they should win and then we'll see what happens when they play the better opponents again. And that's very true. This Packers team is still very solid and will beat the inferior teams with ease. Lost in their week one loss to Minnesota was a defense that actually played very well. The turnovers did GB in during their week one loss but the defense actually held Minnesota below their normal averages. And last week the Packers defense held down a below average Detroit offense, limiting the Lions to just 293 yards at 4.0 yppl. The Packers defense is now allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. The problem for GB is their offense, which finished very poorly last year and isn't doing much better this year, averaging just 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl. The running game got on track last week, gaining 200 yards at 5.7 ypr and is now averaging 4.9 ypr against teams allowing 4.8 ypr. The Arizona offense has been about average, gaining 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl but turnovers have killed them. On defense, well, that's another story. They are defending the run decently but getting burned through the air, allowing 7.5 yps against teams averaging just 5.6 yps. We'll see if GB can take advantage of that. GB played here in 2000 and won that game 29-3 and I don't see anything different happening in this game. Teams opening their season with two straight home games and then go on the road for game number three are 34-8-3 since 1986 as long as their opponent is not undefeated. My numbers favor GB pretty favorably here but I doubt Arizona will continue to turn the ball over quite as much as they have, which should bring the numbers a little closer but still not close enough for Arizona to get the cover. I would think about the over here but the Packers defense is playing pretty well and usually plays well against these types of teams. Not knowing if Arizona can score much more than last week makes it tougher to take the over. And I think Mike Sherman would like to continue to run the ball with a lead to take the pressure off of Favre. GREEN BAY 30 ARIZONA 13
SEATTLE -3 St Louis 47.5
Don't look now but here come the Seahawks. Seattle has played two terrific games and is +10 in the turnover department, not having turned the ball over themselves yet. I had SF last week against the Rams and pushed on the game but SF was clearly the right side in that game. The Rams turned the ball over four more times (all fumbles) but still managed to win the game 27-24. But St. Louis was outplayed in that game to the tune of 390 yards to 278 and 6.0 yppl to 4.3 yppl. The 49ers ran the ball for 148 yards at 5.7 ypr and passed for another 242 at 6.2 yps. The Rams could only run for 88 yards at 3.7 ypr and passed for a measly 190 yards at 4.6 yps. And I don't see much changing this week against a very much improved Seahawks defense. Ray Rhodes has done a fantastic job so far with this defense. They played very well in week one against New Orleans and then shut down a terrible Arizona team last week. For the season, Seattle is allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. The Seahawks offense hasn't been spectacular but they are getting the job done, both rushing and passing. They average 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 3.8 ypr and they are averaging 6.5 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps. That all adds up to 5.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl. For the Rams, their offense hasn't been terrible, averaging 4.6 yppl against teams allowing 4.2 yppl and they have been above average, both rushing the ball and passing the ball. But the Rams problems are the same problems they had at the end of last year, their defense. It is not very good. They are allowing a whopping 5.6 ypr against teams averaging just 4.6 ypr and they are allowing 6.4 yps against teams averaging 5.9 yps. The defense, as a whole, is allowing 6.1 yppl against teams averaging just 5.3 yppl. And Seattle will take advantage of that on Sunday. Seattle qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 103-61-11 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that situation. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 496-380-30 but they don't qualify in the best subsets of that situation either. That isn't quite enough for me to play Seattle here because they are not qualifying in the better subsets but it is certainly enough for me to lean to them. I do like the under in this game. Seattle has now played under in their first two games and the defense is playing very well. If they can get the lead, which I think they can, Mike Holmgren is very happy to pound the ball via the run and take the pressure off of Matt Hasselbeck. Seattle only has four wide receivers on their roster this year. Holmgren kept more running backs because he liked what he had. I doubt he will want to get into too many situations where he wears out his receivers unless he absolutely has to. Not to mention get them hurt. This game qualifies in a 287-216-11 under situation that won on the Bears/Vikings game last week. My final numbers only suggest about 25-30 points in this game based on how these teams have played so far. Part of that is Seattle's ability to keep the opposing team out of the endzone because they are creating turnovers. They won't continue to do that but the defense is good enough to limit the Rams and we're still getting plenty of value here. Since 1983, simply playing under any total 45 or higher would have resulted in 381 winners to only 315 losers for a 54.7% winning percentage for the unders. This game qualifies in a variation of that system that is 216-117-6 towards the under. Seattle beat the Rams here last year 30-10 and that total was 47. Value and plenty of solid situations that suggest a low scoring game make the under the play here. SEATTLE 21 ST LOUIS 10
Baltimore -1 SAN DIEGO 40
Baltimore looked very solid last week, running the ball that is, after getting their hat handed to them in week one at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, for San Diego, they looked terrible for the second consecutive week, losing at home to Denver, 13-37. SD allowed the Broncos to gain 382 yards at 6.1 yppl. SD moved the ball enough to gain 303 yards at 5.1 yppl. They did rush the ball for 121 yards at 6.7 ypr but their passing game was terrible, gaining just 182 yards at 4.4 yps. That doesn't figure to get any better this week against a Baltimore defense that is allowing just 4.9 yps against teams averaging 5.6 yps. And the Baltimore run defense has been solid as well, 3.0 ypr against 3.3 ypr. The problem for Baltimore has been their passing game. Kyle Boller has yet to catch on and their passing game is averaging just 2.9 yps against teams allowing 3.9 yps. The Baltimore running game is just fine, thanks to Jamal Lewis's efforts last week, and they are now averaging 6.7 ypr against teams allowing 5.8 ypr. That could play out just fine against a below average SD defense. The Chargers are allowing 5.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.8 ypr but their real problem has been the pass defense, where they are allowing 6.8 yps against teams averaging 6.0 yps. While the SD running game has been good enough so far (5.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr), their passing game has been terrible, gaining just 4.5 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. But this is a hard game for me to call. SD, at the current line, qualifies in a couple of very solid contrarian plays. But, if SD were to become the favorite, then Baltimore would qualify in some solid situations. What that means is this game, for me, is too close to call. I will lean with the situations that currently favor SD, at this line. SD needs this game badly and with Kyle Boller not able to get the passing game going yet, it will make it easier for SD to stop Baltimore. SAN DIEGO 20 BALTIMORE 17
SAN FRANCISCO -7 Cleveland 44.5
In a couple of weeks, Cleveland is going to wish they had won their week one game against Indy. This isn't a very good football team and their next chance to win a football game will be next week (Cincinnati), which might be their last chance for quite a while. As stated in the Rams write up, SF deserved better last week, as they controlled that game but gave it away in the end. The Cleveland offense isn't good, averaging just 4.0 yppl against teams allowing 4.3 yppl and their defense is sieve like, allowing 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. The SF offense, to this point, has been average, gaining 5.5 yppl against teams allowing 5.7 yppl but they should find some success against a bad Cleveland defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has played terrific, allowing just 3.3 yppl against teams averaging 4.0 yppl. SF qualifies in a 496-380-30 fundamental rushing situation, although they don't qualify in the better subsets of that situation. I like SF here. SAN FRANCISCO 27 CLEVELAND 17
MIAMI -3 Buffalo 40
Miami has won six of the past eight played between these two teams in Miami. Buffalo did get the win last year but that was with Ray Lucas at qb for Miami, who turned the ball over six times. I believe Lucas said after the game that might have been the worse performance by a quarterback in the NFL ever. Nobody was arguing with Ray after he said that. The Bills have looked terrific so far this year, winning both games rather easily, and putting up huge numbers. Buffalo is averaging 5.7 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl and that includes passing for 9.5 yps against teams allowing just 5.7 yps. Yes, they did average 12.1 yps last week but they also moved the ball through the air against NE in their first game. The biggest problem for Buffalo right now is their running game. They are averaging just 2.3 ypr against teams allowing 3.4 ypr. And on defense, they have managed to camouflage their poor run defense, which is allowing 4.7 ypr against teams averaging just 3.3 ypr, because they have gotten out to such big leads. Their pass defense has been stellar, allowing just 4.1 yps against teams averaging 5.3 yps. Now, they face a Miami team whose pass offense has been solid, gaining 7.5 yps against teams allowing 6.8 yps. To date, the Miami running game has been a bit below average, gaining just 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr. But when you have Ricky Williams, the carries almost become more important than the yards per rush. If Ricky gets the ball enough, that's most important to Miami because he can wear down a defense. The big problem right now for Miami is their pass defense, which has been torched by the likes of David Carr and Houston and Vinny Testaverde and the Jets. Those aren't the first two teams that come to mind when talking about great passing offenses. Miami is allowing a whopping 8.1 yps against teams averaging 6.4 yps. That doesn't look so good against a Bills passing offense that is thriving right now. Miami does qualify in some solid situations this week, including a home momentum situation that is 103-61-11 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that situation. They also qualify in a 496-380-30 fundamental rushing situation but they don't qualify in the best subsets of that situation. The Bills, meanwhile, qualify in a letdown situation, which is a 78-40-5 play against situation and they also qualify in the better subset of that, which is a 47-19-2 play against situation. That is certainly enough to get me leaning towards Miami in this game. But, unfortunately, Miami doesn't qualify in some of the better subsets to get me on them as a best bet. Numbers wise, as you would expect, Buffalo gets the nod. But, in my experience of winning five straight years in the NFL and my research, numbers don't mean as much as the situations. Otherwise, with these types of numbers, Buffalo would go undefeated. We all know they won't continue to play this well. The NFL season is a roller coaster ride. When Buffalo begins to come down the hill is the question. I'm guessing it is this week. This game comes down to two things. Can Miami's porous pass defense stop the Bills high octane passing offense and can the Bills terrible rush defense stop the normally sound Miami rushing game? The winner of those two areas will win this game. MIAMI 23 BUFFALO 17
DENVER -5 Oakland 45
Prior to last year, Denver had won seven straight games against Oakland here. But that was last year and this is this year. Much has changed, at least for Oakland, who looks to be a very average team right now. Quite frankly, Oakland was out played last week against Cincinnati. A turnover did Cincinnati in near the end of the game. The Oakland offense hasn't been terrible this year, rushing the ball for 5.6 ypr against teams allowing just 4.6 ypr but their passing game has been below average, gaining just 5.0 yps against teams allowing 5.3 yps. If Oakland can't get their passing game going, they are in for a long season because their defense hasn't really played that well, as of yet. They are allowing 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl, including allowing 6.8 yps against teams averaging just 6.1 yps. So far, the Denver offense hasn't played any better than average, considering they have only played Cincinnati and San Diego. They are averaging 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl. Yes, they did beat Cincinnati soundly from a scoring standpoint in week one, but from a stats standpoint, Cincinnati hung right with them. Turnovers did in the Bengals in that game. The Denver defense, which has allowed just 10 and 13 points, has been just average as well, allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. Nothing really stands out with those numbers. Denver qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 103-61-11 but they don't qualify in the better part of that subset. They also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 24-6-2. Meanwhile, Oakland qualifies in a general situation, which is 142-80-6, including a subset of that which is 119-52-5. My numbers greatly favor Denver in this game and the situations lean towards them as well. DENVER 27 OAKLAND 20
BEST BETS
YTD 4-3-1 +0.70%
3% MINNESOTA -3.5
2% JACK/INDY UNDER 43
2% STL/SEA UNDER 47.5
Home team in caps.
NEW ENGLAND -6.5 NY Jets 37.5
Jets have won five straight games here. You would have to go back seven years since NE actually defeated the Jets by more than today's spread and only twice in the last ten years have they done so. Having said all of that, this Jets team is not good. And they now have injuries in the secondary, which won't help them. The Jets managed a whopping 1.9 ypr last week and 21 yards rushing. They did pass the ball very well against Miami, throwing for 366 yards and 8.0 yps. For the year, the Jets are now averaging 2.4 ypr against teams allowing 3.1 ypr and they are passing for 6.6 yps (which looks good) but that's against teams allowing 6.5 yps, making them about average throwing the ball. On defense the Jets are allowing 4.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.3 ypr but their pass defense has been horrible, allowing 7.6 yps against teams averaging just 7.0 yps. Their numbers, overall, suggest a pretty average team. They take on a NE team who beat Philly last week, but NE was +4 in the turnover margin, which greatly aided their efforts. NE is still struggling to run the ball and they only gained 2.1 ypr last week on 62 yards. For the year, they are very average, gaining 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 3.4 ypr. And they aren't throwing the ball any better, averaging just 4.6 yps against teams allowing 5.0 yps. On defense, their pass defense continues to excel, allowing 4.5 yps against teams averaging 5.5 yps, which will make it very difficult for the Jets to throw the ball. But their rush defense is once again giving up yards as they are allowing 4.1 ypr against teams averaging 3.7 ypr. I have no situations on this game but it's very difficult to cover a fairly large number with a poor offense and series history dictates the Jets here as well. NEW ENGLAND 17 NY JETS 14
Pittsburgh -4.5 CINCINNATI 45.5
Nothing too telling with this series history. Pittsburgh has done well here in Cincinnati and, on occasion, Cincinnati has pulled the upset. I had KC last week and got the cover, but truth be told, Pittsburgh did well, from a stats standpoint. The Pittsburgh problems last week were due to special teams (a returned kick off for a touchdown) and an interception returned for a touchdown (although Pittsburgh had one themselves). But the Steelers gained 380 yards at 5.7 yppl to Kansas City's 282 at 4.9 yppl. The Steelers defense has played pretty well this year, allowing just 4.1 yppl to teams averaging 5.1 yppl. Their passing game has also been very solid, averaging 6.8 yps against teams allowing 5.3 yps. But their rushing game is just average, gaining 3.2 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. Overall their offense is gaining 5.4 yppl against teams allowing 4.6 yppl. They now take on a Cincinnati team who is 0-2. But this isn't the same 0-2 Bengals team that we are used to. Yes, Cincinnati lost to Denver in week one, 10-30, but they played the Broncos pretty tough, from a stats standpoint, gaining 4.7 yppl to only 4.4 yppl for Denver. In that game, they held the Denver passing game to just 109 yards passing at 4.2 yps. Last week they did it again to Oakland, limiting the Raiders to just 103 yards passing at 3.7 yps. They did allow the Raiders to rush for 134 yards at 6.7 ypr and for the season, they are allowing teams to rush for 5.3 ypr but against teams averaging 5.3 ypr so they are about average defending the rush. Their pass defense, as mentioned, is allowing just 3.9 yps against teams averaging 5.2 yps. I have no situations favoring either team in this game and the match-up could favor Cincinnati with their pass defense against the Steelers good passing offense. But, as much as I don't think Cincinnati is as bad as the past, I still side with Pittsburgh, until Cincinnati proves they can actually win these games. PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 18
INDIANAPOLIS -8 Jacksonville 43
Another game with not much interest for me from a side perspective. Indy has looked decent so far, based on their convincing win over Tennessee last week, but they struggled the week before against, what I consider to be a poor Cleveland team. Jacksonville played Indy tough in their last game of the season last year, losing here 13-20, but they were manhandled by Buffalo last week, allowing 371 yards at 6.1 yppl, while only gaining 287 yards at 4.0 yppl. Jacksonville allowed Buffalo to throw for 328 yards at 12.1 yps. For the season, they are now allowing 7.3 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps. They'll face Indy, who is averaging 5.6 yps against teams allowing 5.2 yps so Indy should have some success in the air. The Jacksonville offense is just above average, gaining 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl and they'll face an Indy defense, which is slightly below average, allowing 4.6 yppl against teams averaging just 4.3 yppl. I've never been a big fan of laying points with a below average defense and that is what we have here with Indy. We also get a little extra value with the Jacksonville debacle last week and Indy's big win over Tennessee last week. Indy qualifies in a letdown situation that is 105-44-4 playing against them. Unfortunately, Jacksonville doesn't qualify in the best part of that situation to make them a play. The situation is very strong, however, and should be enough to keep you off of Indy. My projected final score also indicates only about a seven point victory for Indy. This game also qualifies in a 74-42-3 under situation, including a subset that is 52-17-2. And it also qualifies in a terrific 216-117-6 under situation. Using my yards scoring predictor, I only show about 32 points being scored in this game. That's enough to get me on the under here. INDIANAPOLIS 21 JACKSONVILLE 14
Minnesota -3.5 DETROIT 46.5
Don't look now but the Vikings have actually won five straight games. Included in their five game winning streak (dating back to last year's final three games) is a season ending win here over Detroit, 38-36. I had the over in that game as well as the Lions. Detroit got a score and missed the two point conversion on the next to last play of the game for the cover. The Vikings out played Detroit in that game but couldn't hold on to the cover. Mike Tice said last week his team has had troubles with the Bears linebackers in the past. This week, he said he thinks his team has the advantage over the linebackers and their secondary. He said they have had trouble pass blocking against the Lions front four but doesn't feel they have had problems rushing the ball. The Vikings offense has been good this year, gaining 5.4 yppl against teams allowing just 5.0 yppl and they are above average in both, rushing and passing. Most surprisingly is their defense, which is allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.3 yppl. Now, that doesn't look that good but they are allowing just 19 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game. The reason is they are not turning the ball over so frequently like they did last year. Couple a somewhat respectable defense with the decline in turnovers and this defense can hold it's own, especially when the offense is playing ball control offense. The problems for the Lions are the same problems as last year. Yes, they won their first game of the year over Arizona but they were badly out played in that game, from a stats standpoint. They were able to return punts and get defensive scores to make the final score look worse than it actually was. But their offensive is terrible as is their defense. On defense, the Lions have allowed 5.9 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. That's not too far from the Minnesota defense but the difference is their defense is allowing 28 points per game against teams averaging 20 points per game. This simply means their offense is also contributing to their poor defense. Both the Lions rush defense and their pass defense are horrible. On offense, Detroit is averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. If Minnesota doesn't turn the ball over and help Detroit, there is no way Detroit can win this game. I'm very well aware that Detroit has played some close games against Minnesota here over the years and many of the games Minnesota has won here were only by two points or so. And, I'm also aware that every game played here for the past nine years has totaled at least 46 points. And this game could also go over the total rather easily but I won't be there this time. First, as stated, the Vikings defense is actually playing a little better as of late. And if their offense isn't turning the ball over to help the Detroit offense, Detroit may not score as many points. The Detroit offense simply isn't very good. And while Mike Tice will do whatever it takes to score, he is very happy running the ball more, to keep Culpepper out of situations that will hurt his game. Tice does expect a high scoring game but there are some things this year that are not as favorable as last year when I took the over. Minnesota also qualifies in some great situations, including an early season situation, which is 93-46-5 and that situation went 4-1-1 last week. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation (which went 7-0-1 last week) and is now 496-380-30 including the best subset of that situation which is 132-54-7 (3-0-1 last week with Indy, KC, Denver and SF). If the Vikings don't turn the ball over, the Lions defense isn't good enough to consistently stop them. And the Vikings defense is improved enough to stop a very below average Lions offense. MINNESOTA 30 DETROIT 17
TENNESSEE -4.5 New Orleans 44.5
I've seen quite a few people that like Tennessee this week. I don't understand that. I realize NO tanked it again at the end of the season last year and their defense gave up 20 or more points in every game last year except for the last game and allowed 27 points in their first game this year at Seattle. But, they actually played much better than the final score indicated in that first game. A -4 in turnovers against Seattle did them in. NO actually out-gained Seattle 4.8 yppl to 4.6 yppl in that game. Last week NO looked very solid, albeit against Houston, but they gained 292 yards at 5.2 yppl while limiting Houston to just 258 yards and 4.0 yppl. Yes, I realize it's just Houston but Houston was much more effective against Miami the week before. This is a good match-up for NO. Their offense is just above average this year, gaining 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 4.8 yppl but their defense has actually played well. They are allowing 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr, which makes their rush defense about average. That's all they'll need against a poor Tennessee rushing team, which is averaging just 2.7 ypr against teams allowing 3.2 ypr. Their pass defense has been very solid, allowing just 4.5 yps against teams gaining 6.3 yps. Tennessee has played very solid rush defense this year, allowing just 3.7 ypr against teams gaining 4.6 ypr but their pass defense is well below average again this year, allowing 6.6 yps against teams averaging 5.4 yps. NO passing offense hasn't been great but it is above average and should be able to take advantage of a poor Tennessee pass defense. Aside from that, NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation which is 496-380-30 but they don't qualify in any of the subsets of that situation. Tennessee also qualifies in a play against 138-85-9 negative momentum situation including a subset of that, which is 102-52-7. There's not quite enough for me to play NO in this game but I definitely lean their way and will lean towards the over as well. NEW ORLEANS 27 TENNESSEE 24
Tampa Bay -4 ATLANTA 35.5
I don't have any situations for this game. TB beat Atlanta rather handily in both games last year. I went against Atlanta in week one and had a lean against them in week two. One of the reasons I went against Atlanta is their defense. And, although they beat me in week one (against Dallas), they were out played from a stats standpoint. Last week, Washington not only beat them but beat them in the yards game as well. Washington gained 435 yards at 5.7 yppl and Atlanta didn't move the ball against Washington, gaining just 283 yards at 4.3 yppl. Yes, TB lost the game last week and didn't play great. They still are having trouble running the ball, gaining just 2.8 ypr against teams allowing 2.6 ypr and their defense is allowing 5.2 ypr but that's against teams averaging 5.1 ypr so it's about average. Their pass defense is allowing only 3.3 yps but that's against teams averaging 3.3 yps, which makes their pass defense about average. The Atlanta defense is really struggling, allowing 6.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.7 yppl and they are equally as bad defending both, the rush and the pass. I'll take the better defense. TAMPA BAY 17 ATLANTA 10
Kansas City -7.5 HOUSTON 43.5
Tough game for me to call. I have pretty solid situations on both teams in this game. I had KC last week and got the win but the game was closer than the final score, at least from a yards perspective. KC had big special teams play and scored with their defense (as did Pittsburgh) but Pittsburgh out-gained them in the game 380-282 and 5.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl. Houston, who looked so good in week one against Miami, looked more like the Houston we know from last year last week, allowing David Carr to be sacked five times (none against Miami) and only gaining 258 yards at 4.0 yppl. The KC rushing offense is actually below average, gaining just 4.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.7 ypr but their passing offense has been fantastic, gaining 6.7 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. And on defense is where KC has made their greatest improvements, allowing just 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. That only makes their defense about average but that is a great improvement over last year's defense. The Houston defense is also just average, allowing 5.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl. The big difference between these two teams, of course, is the offense. Houston's offense is averaging just 5.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl. Houston qualifies in a couple of contrarian situations, which are 43-12 and 34-8. But KC also qualifies in a scheduling situation which is 34-8-3 and if this line would go down to -7, KC would also qualify in a very strong fundamental rushing situation. My numbers slightly favor KC in this game with a lean towards the over. Too many factors going both ways but I will lean with the better team. KANSAS CITY 27 HOUSTON 17
WASHINGTON -2.5 NY Giants 43
Washington only won by two last week but they severely outplayed Atlanta. The Redskins gained 435 yards on offense at 5.7 yppl and limited the Falcons to just 283 yards at 4.0 yppl. And Washington did it from both, the rushing game (125 yards at 4.0 ypr) and the passing game (310 yards at 6.9 yps). This week they take on a Giants team who comes off a terrible showing against Dallas. Not only did the Giants lose but they looked bad in doing so. They only gained 309 yards on offense at a measly 4.4 yppl. The Giants passed for 256 yards but at only 4.8 yps and their running game was nonexistent, gaining just 53 yards at 3.1 ypr. They shut down the Dallas running game, allowing just 107 yards at 3.0 ypr but Dallas was able to move the ball through the air, gaining 296 yards at 6.7 yps. Both of these team's defenses have played well this year with Washington allowing just 3.7 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl and the Giants allowing just 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. Both teams are also below average on offense right now. There isn't any history in this series that favors one team or the other, when playing in Washington. They have both had their share of wins here. Washington does qualify in a negative momentum situation, which is a 138-85-9 play against the Redskins. The Redskins don't qualify in the play against better subset of that situation. Meanwhile the Giants qualify in a bounce back situation that is 121-67-4 after winning with the Packers last week. My numbers favor the Giants slightly, as do the situations. The situations favor the Giants and so do I. NY GIANTS 23 WASHINGTON 20
Green Bay -7.5 ARIZONA 43
The season is only two weeks old and it can't end fast enough for the Cardinals. This is a real bad team. Last week, Arizona shot themselves in the foot for the second straight week, turning the ball over six times to zero for Seattle. Not only did the turnovers hurt Arizona but they couldn't move the ball with any consistency at all and Seattle moved the ball, at will, on Arizona. Seattle gained 323 yards at 6.2 yppl while Arizona could only muster 286 yards at 4.0 yppl. While football doesn't work this way, Arizona actually outplayed Detroit in week one but couldn't over come their multiple mistakes and then last week Green Bay dominated a bad Detroit team. That doesn't say much for Arizona's chances this week. I read something last week that I thought was very true. Someone said the Packers will win these games they should win and then we'll see what happens when they play the better opponents again. And that's very true. This Packers team is still very solid and will beat the inferior teams with ease. Lost in their week one loss to Minnesota was a defense that actually played very well. The turnovers did GB in during their week one loss but the defense actually held Minnesota below their normal averages. And last week the Packers defense held down a below average Detroit offense, limiting the Lions to just 293 yards at 4.0 yppl. The Packers defense is now allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. The problem for GB is their offense, which finished very poorly last year and isn't doing much better this year, averaging just 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl. The running game got on track last week, gaining 200 yards at 5.7 ypr and is now averaging 4.9 ypr against teams allowing 4.8 ypr. The Arizona offense has been about average, gaining 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl but turnovers have killed them. On defense, well, that's another story. They are defending the run decently but getting burned through the air, allowing 7.5 yps against teams averaging just 5.6 yps. We'll see if GB can take advantage of that. GB played here in 2000 and won that game 29-3 and I don't see anything different happening in this game. Teams opening their season with two straight home games and then go on the road for game number three are 34-8-3 since 1986 as long as their opponent is not undefeated. My numbers favor GB pretty favorably here but I doubt Arizona will continue to turn the ball over quite as much as they have, which should bring the numbers a little closer but still not close enough for Arizona to get the cover. I would think about the over here but the Packers defense is playing pretty well and usually plays well against these types of teams. Not knowing if Arizona can score much more than last week makes it tougher to take the over. And I think Mike Sherman would like to continue to run the ball with a lead to take the pressure off of Favre. GREEN BAY 30 ARIZONA 13
SEATTLE -3 St Louis 47.5
Don't look now but here come the Seahawks. Seattle has played two terrific games and is +10 in the turnover department, not having turned the ball over themselves yet. I had SF last week against the Rams and pushed on the game but SF was clearly the right side in that game. The Rams turned the ball over four more times (all fumbles) but still managed to win the game 27-24. But St. Louis was outplayed in that game to the tune of 390 yards to 278 and 6.0 yppl to 4.3 yppl. The 49ers ran the ball for 148 yards at 5.7 ypr and passed for another 242 at 6.2 yps. The Rams could only run for 88 yards at 3.7 ypr and passed for a measly 190 yards at 4.6 yps. And I don't see much changing this week against a very much improved Seahawks defense. Ray Rhodes has done a fantastic job so far with this defense. They played very well in week one against New Orleans and then shut down a terrible Arizona team last week. For the season, Seattle is allowing just 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. The Seahawks offense hasn't been spectacular but they are getting the job done, both rushing and passing. They average 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 3.8 ypr and they are averaging 6.5 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps. That all adds up to 5.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl. For the Rams, their offense hasn't been terrible, averaging 4.6 yppl against teams allowing 4.2 yppl and they have been above average, both rushing the ball and passing the ball. But the Rams problems are the same problems they had at the end of last year, their defense. It is not very good. They are allowing a whopping 5.6 ypr against teams averaging just 4.6 ypr and they are allowing 6.4 yps against teams averaging 5.9 yps. The defense, as a whole, is allowing 6.1 yppl against teams averaging just 5.3 yppl. And Seattle will take advantage of that on Sunday. Seattle qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 103-61-11 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that situation. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 496-380-30 but they don't qualify in the best subsets of that situation either. That isn't quite enough for me to play Seattle here because they are not qualifying in the better subsets but it is certainly enough for me to lean to them. I do like the under in this game. Seattle has now played under in their first two games and the defense is playing very well. If they can get the lead, which I think they can, Mike Holmgren is very happy to pound the ball via the run and take the pressure off of Matt Hasselbeck. Seattle only has four wide receivers on their roster this year. Holmgren kept more running backs because he liked what he had. I doubt he will want to get into too many situations where he wears out his receivers unless he absolutely has to. Not to mention get them hurt. This game qualifies in a 287-216-11 under situation that won on the Bears/Vikings game last week. My final numbers only suggest about 25-30 points in this game based on how these teams have played so far. Part of that is Seattle's ability to keep the opposing team out of the endzone because they are creating turnovers. They won't continue to do that but the defense is good enough to limit the Rams and we're still getting plenty of value here. Since 1983, simply playing under any total 45 or higher would have resulted in 381 winners to only 315 losers for a 54.7% winning percentage for the unders. This game qualifies in a variation of that system that is 216-117-6 towards the under. Seattle beat the Rams here last year 30-10 and that total was 47. Value and plenty of solid situations that suggest a low scoring game make the under the play here. SEATTLE 21 ST LOUIS 10
Baltimore -1 SAN DIEGO 40
Baltimore looked very solid last week, running the ball that is, after getting their hat handed to them in week one at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, for San Diego, they looked terrible for the second consecutive week, losing at home to Denver, 13-37. SD allowed the Broncos to gain 382 yards at 6.1 yppl. SD moved the ball enough to gain 303 yards at 5.1 yppl. They did rush the ball for 121 yards at 6.7 ypr but their passing game was terrible, gaining just 182 yards at 4.4 yps. That doesn't figure to get any better this week against a Baltimore defense that is allowing just 4.9 yps against teams averaging 5.6 yps. And the Baltimore run defense has been solid as well, 3.0 ypr against 3.3 ypr. The problem for Baltimore has been their passing game. Kyle Boller has yet to catch on and their passing game is averaging just 2.9 yps against teams allowing 3.9 yps. The Baltimore running game is just fine, thanks to Jamal Lewis's efforts last week, and they are now averaging 6.7 ypr against teams allowing 5.8 ypr. That could play out just fine against a below average SD defense. The Chargers are allowing 5.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.8 ypr but their real problem has been the pass defense, where they are allowing 6.8 yps against teams averaging 6.0 yps. While the SD running game has been good enough so far (5.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr), their passing game has been terrible, gaining just 4.5 yps against teams allowing 5.4 yps. But this is a hard game for me to call. SD, at the current line, qualifies in a couple of very solid contrarian plays. But, if SD were to become the favorite, then Baltimore would qualify in some solid situations. What that means is this game, for me, is too close to call. I will lean with the situations that currently favor SD, at this line. SD needs this game badly and with Kyle Boller not able to get the passing game going yet, it will make it easier for SD to stop Baltimore. SAN DIEGO 20 BALTIMORE 17
SAN FRANCISCO -7 Cleveland 44.5
In a couple of weeks, Cleveland is going to wish they had won their week one game against Indy. This isn't a very good football team and their next chance to win a football game will be next week (Cincinnati), which might be their last chance for quite a while. As stated in the Rams write up, SF deserved better last week, as they controlled that game but gave it away in the end. The Cleveland offense isn't good, averaging just 4.0 yppl against teams allowing 4.3 yppl and their defense is sieve like, allowing 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. The SF offense, to this point, has been average, gaining 5.5 yppl against teams allowing 5.7 yppl but they should find some success against a bad Cleveland defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has played terrific, allowing just 3.3 yppl against teams averaging 4.0 yppl. SF qualifies in a 496-380-30 fundamental rushing situation, although they don't qualify in the better subsets of that situation. I like SF here. SAN FRANCISCO 27 CLEVELAND 17
MIAMI -3 Buffalo 40
Miami has won six of the past eight played between these two teams in Miami. Buffalo did get the win last year but that was with Ray Lucas at qb for Miami, who turned the ball over six times. I believe Lucas said after the game that might have been the worse performance by a quarterback in the NFL ever. Nobody was arguing with Ray after he said that. The Bills have looked terrific so far this year, winning both games rather easily, and putting up huge numbers. Buffalo is averaging 5.7 yppl against teams allowing 4.7 yppl and that includes passing for 9.5 yps against teams allowing just 5.7 yps. Yes, they did average 12.1 yps last week but they also moved the ball through the air against NE in their first game. The biggest problem for Buffalo right now is their running game. They are averaging just 2.3 ypr against teams allowing 3.4 ypr. And on defense, they have managed to camouflage their poor run defense, which is allowing 4.7 ypr against teams averaging just 3.3 ypr, because they have gotten out to such big leads. Their pass defense has been stellar, allowing just 4.1 yps against teams averaging 5.3 yps. Now, they face a Miami team whose pass offense has been solid, gaining 7.5 yps against teams allowing 6.8 yps. To date, the Miami running game has been a bit below average, gaining just 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr. But when you have Ricky Williams, the carries almost become more important than the yards per rush. If Ricky gets the ball enough, that's most important to Miami because he can wear down a defense. The big problem right now for Miami is their pass defense, which has been torched by the likes of David Carr and Houston and Vinny Testaverde and the Jets. Those aren't the first two teams that come to mind when talking about great passing offenses. Miami is allowing a whopping 8.1 yps against teams averaging 6.4 yps. That doesn't look so good against a Bills passing offense that is thriving right now. Miami does qualify in some solid situations this week, including a home momentum situation that is 103-61-11 but they don't qualify in the better subset of that situation. They also qualify in a 496-380-30 fundamental rushing situation but they don't qualify in the best subsets of that situation. The Bills, meanwhile, qualify in a letdown situation, which is a 78-40-5 play against situation and they also qualify in the better subset of that, which is a 47-19-2 play against situation. That is certainly enough to get me leaning towards Miami in this game. But, unfortunately, Miami doesn't qualify in some of the better subsets to get me on them as a best bet. Numbers wise, as you would expect, Buffalo gets the nod. But, in my experience of winning five straight years in the NFL and my research, numbers don't mean as much as the situations. Otherwise, with these types of numbers, Buffalo would go undefeated. We all know they won't continue to play this well. The NFL season is a roller coaster ride. When Buffalo begins to come down the hill is the question. I'm guessing it is this week. This game comes down to two things. Can Miami's porous pass defense stop the Bills high octane passing offense and can the Bills terrible rush defense stop the normally sound Miami rushing game? The winner of those two areas will win this game. MIAMI 23 BUFFALO 17
DENVER -5 Oakland 45
Prior to last year, Denver had won seven straight games against Oakland here. But that was last year and this is this year. Much has changed, at least for Oakland, who looks to be a very average team right now. Quite frankly, Oakland was out played last week against Cincinnati. A turnover did Cincinnati in near the end of the game. The Oakland offense hasn't been terrible this year, rushing the ball for 5.6 ypr against teams allowing just 4.6 ypr but their passing game has been below average, gaining just 5.0 yps against teams allowing 5.3 yps. If Oakland can't get their passing game going, they are in for a long season because their defense hasn't really played that well, as of yet. They are allowing 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl, including allowing 6.8 yps against teams averaging just 6.1 yps. So far, the Denver offense hasn't played any better than average, considering they have only played Cincinnati and San Diego. They are averaging 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl. Yes, they did beat Cincinnati soundly from a scoring standpoint in week one, but from a stats standpoint, Cincinnati hung right with them. Turnovers did in the Bengals in that game. The Denver defense, which has allowed just 10 and 13 points, has been just average as well, allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.8 yppl. Nothing really stands out with those numbers. Denver qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 103-61-11 but they don't qualify in the better part of that subset. They also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 24-6-2. Meanwhile, Oakland qualifies in a general situation, which is 142-80-6, including a subset of that which is 119-52-5. My numbers greatly favor Denver in this game and the situations lean towards them as well. DENVER 27 OAKLAND 20
BEST BETS
YTD 4-3-1 +0.70%
3% MINNESOTA -3.5
2% JACK/INDY UNDER 43
2% STL/SEA UNDER 47.5
