NFL 2015: YTD: 14-11-1: (+12.5 units)
4 unit plays: 2-0 (+8 units)
3 unit plays: 2-1 (+2.7 units)
2 unit plays: 5-2-1 (+5.7 units)
1 unit plays: 5-8 (-3.9 units)
All plays are between 1-4 units. Price -110, unless otherwise stated. Sometimes I note the book/time etc… if there is a lot of line movement.
Pats/Jags OVER 47 – 4 units
I knew I would bet this when the line came out and grabbed it early (Bookmaker, 9/21). So far this season the Pats have basically abandoned the run and relied on a lot of passing – mostly short routes that take 2 seconds to release. This has led to a lot of high passing totals (61 drop backs vs Buffalo) and lots of point. It also helps the opponent score more often. For instance, last week the Patriots were pushing the gas pedal vs Buffalo – despite having a large lead in the late 4[SUP]th[/SUP]) by going for it on 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and 1 late, and up 21. All the passing lends itself to a lot of plays because of the clock stopping so much on incompletions.
I expect the Pats to continue this strategy (as they did vs B-more, SEA, Pitt, Buff): Pass quickly and often and to continue to try and score even if they have a big lead. The Jags strength is their run defense, so I doubt the Pats will try a power running attack vs them. I expect to see a lot more of Dion Lewis, than L Blount. Also, the Pat’s defense has some weaknesses so far – vs the run and they too often have to rely on Fletcher or Logan to play man coverage without help. So the Jags will score some points, but I expect the Pats to carry this one over. They are clearly trying to make a statement. In light of this I also like:
Pats -13.5 – 2 units
I made this play at the same time and for the reasons posted above. I think this game is a high scoring affair. And I think the Pat’s tendency to keep trying to score, even with a big lead makes me like their chances of covering this number. I am with the public on this one, I know.
Eagles + 3 (-125) 2 units
Also took this early (Bookmaker 9/22). I am against the public on this one. The reaction to last week is too much. The Jets offense is worrisome. Before the week 2 games Phi was expected to be favored by 2 points or so. The Jets looked excellent vs the Colts, but we are learning the Colts offense is not so good. And while the Eagles are 0-2 (ATS and SU) they are not as bad as they have shown. The Eagles have shown they can score quickly (in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half Atlanta) and their defense should be able to keep Fitz in check. The Jets are also banged up good: Revis, Ivory etc… all questionable. If they play, they may be limited. For that reason I also lean toward: Jets Team Total UNDER 24 (-120) but haven’t made that play (thoughts?) – still deciding if I want to put too many eggs in the Chip Kelly basket.
Baltimore -2.5 (-110) 1 unit
To me Baltimore is probably the better team. The Bengals always start out hot, but in a division game on the road, against a team whose season is basically on the line? No thanks. I will take the team with the better coach, the better QB, is at home and needs the game more.
MIA -2.5 (-110) 1 unit
This is a lot like the Baltimore game. I think the better team is being treated as a slightly worse team. I feel pretty strongly Mia and Baltimore should handle these games at home and -2.5 is great value). I also think Buffalo is the most overhyped team in the league (save for the Colts, maybe). Their QB threw 3 picks last week and looks like a man with little experience. The Dolphins D-line should be able to hurt him. Also, the bills are among the leaders in stupid, needless penalties and in a close game those penalties will kill you. Rex doesn’t have this team under control. Lastly, ” Bills defense is overrated. The defense is good, but not a world beater. They beat up the Colts, but we soon learned they had no offensive line and Luck is one of the worst funks of his life. They were torched by a good offense. (Carbon.ag 9/26)
Det +3.5 (-115) 1 unit
I love the Denver defense but still think this Broncos offense has major problems – Manning’s arm and the battle for what kind of offense to run (Kubiak’s under center, zone blocking scheme, or Manning in shotgun calling the plays). Detroit is desperate for a win and think they at least keep this close and probably win it outright. The Broncos are somewhat lucky to be 2-0 and I don’t think they will win a road game on primetime, again, to make it 3-0.
NFL 2015: YTD: 14-11-1: (+12.5 units)
4 unit plays: 2-0 (+8 units)
3 unit plays: 2-1 (+2.7 units)
2 unit plays: 5-2-1 (+5.7 units)
1 unit plays: 5-8 (-3.9 units)
Of the 14 wins:
7-4 on totals
2-1 on overs
5-3 on unders
7-7 on spreads
4-2 on favs
3-5 on dogs
4 unit plays: 2-0 (+8 units)
3 unit plays: 2-1 (+2.7 units)
2 unit plays: 5-2-1 (+5.7 units)
1 unit plays: 5-8 (-3.9 units)
All plays are between 1-4 units. Price -110, unless otherwise stated. Sometimes I note the book/time etc… if there is a lot of line movement.
Pats/Jags OVER 47 – 4 units
I knew I would bet this when the line came out and grabbed it early (Bookmaker, 9/21). So far this season the Pats have basically abandoned the run and relied on a lot of passing – mostly short routes that take 2 seconds to release. This has led to a lot of high passing totals (61 drop backs vs Buffalo) and lots of point. It also helps the opponent score more often. For instance, last week the Patriots were pushing the gas pedal vs Buffalo – despite having a large lead in the late 4[SUP]th[/SUP]) by going for it on 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and 1 late, and up 21. All the passing lends itself to a lot of plays because of the clock stopping so much on incompletions.
I expect the Pats to continue this strategy (as they did vs B-more, SEA, Pitt, Buff): Pass quickly and often and to continue to try and score even if they have a big lead. The Jags strength is their run defense, so I doubt the Pats will try a power running attack vs them. I expect to see a lot more of Dion Lewis, than L Blount. Also, the Pat’s defense has some weaknesses so far – vs the run and they too often have to rely on Fletcher or Logan to play man coverage without help. So the Jags will score some points, but I expect the Pats to carry this one over. They are clearly trying to make a statement. In light of this I also like:
Pats -13.5 – 2 units
I made this play at the same time and for the reasons posted above. I think this game is a high scoring affair. And I think the Pat’s tendency to keep trying to score, even with a big lead makes me like their chances of covering this number. I am with the public on this one, I know.
Eagles + 3 (-125) 2 units
Also took this early (Bookmaker 9/22). I am against the public on this one. The reaction to last week is too much. The Jets offense is worrisome. Before the week 2 games Phi was expected to be favored by 2 points or so. The Jets looked excellent vs the Colts, but we are learning the Colts offense is not so good. And while the Eagles are 0-2 (ATS and SU) they are not as bad as they have shown. The Eagles have shown they can score quickly (in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half Atlanta) and their defense should be able to keep Fitz in check. The Jets are also banged up good: Revis, Ivory etc… all questionable. If they play, they may be limited. For that reason I also lean toward: Jets Team Total UNDER 24 (-120) but haven’t made that play (thoughts?) – still deciding if I want to put too many eggs in the Chip Kelly basket.
Baltimore -2.5 (-110) 1 unit
To me Baltimore is probably the better team. The Bengals always start out hot, but in a division game on the road, against a team whose season is basically on the line? No thanks. I will take the team with the better coach, the better QB, is at home and needs the game more.
MIA -2.5 (-110) 1 unit
This is a lot like the Baltimore game. I think the better team is being treated as a slightly worse team. I feel pretty strongly Mia and Baltimore should handle these games at home and -2.5 is great value). I also think Buffalo is the most overhyped team in the league (save for the Colts, maybe). Their QB threw 3 picks last week and looks like a man with little experience. The Dolphins D-line should be able to hurt him. Also, the bills are among the leaders in stupid, needless penalties and in a close game those penalties will kill you. Rex doesn’t have this team under control. Lastly, ” Bills defense is overrated. The defense is good, but not a world beater. They beat up the Colts, but we soon learned they had no offensive line and Luck is one of the worst funks of his life. They were torched by a good offense. (Carbon.ag 9/26)
Det +3.5 (-115) 1 unit
I love the Denver defense but still think this Broncos offense has major problems – Manning’s arm and the battle for what kind of offense to run (Kubiak’s under center, zone blocking scheme, or Manning in shotgun calling the plays). Detroit is desperate for a win and think they at least keep this close and probably win it outright. The Broncos are somewhat lucky to be 2-0 and I don’t think they will win a road game on primetime, again, to make it 3-0.
NFL 2015: YTD: 14-11-1: (+12.5 units)
4 unit plays: 2-0 (+8 units)
3 unit plays: 2-1 (+2.7 units)
2 unit plays: 5-2-1 (+5.7 units)
1 unit plays: 5-8 (-3.9 units)
Of the 14 wins:
7-4 on totals
2-1 on overs
5-3 on unders
7-7 on spreads
4-2 on favs
3-5 on dogs
Last edited:
