NFL Week 3.........12 ~ 4

[sds23]

I am going to try and be a bit more cautious with my action this week. Week three has historically always been a difficult week for me. I still have more capping to do, so just one play for now:

2* CAR +3.5 110







Season Record: 12~4......+14.50 units

--------------------------------

Play Ratings Record

3*...............1~0
2*...............6~1
1*...............5~3
-------------------
ALL.............12~4

 

[ajreeb]

I am going to try and be a bit more cautious with my action this week. Week three has historically always been a difficult week for me. I still have more capping to do, so just one play for now:

2* CAR +3.5 110

ALL.............12~4

Living in NC, I'm forced to watch all Panther games and even though they are 2-0 against two good teams, I haven't been that impressed with their performance. That being said, MIN seems to be in a bit of trouble with their QB situation, Carolina plays better on the road and Steve Smith is coming back. Looks like a solid play, GL!

Due to circumstances beyond my control (system says so), I'm considering a large play on NYG if the line stays at -13.5 or better.

The league is:
21-7 ats off a 20+ win and at home since 2007

27-3 ats as a home fav between -6.5 and -13.5 the week before a bye since 2002

I love both of these systems and this is a rare time when one team falls into both categories. Would be VERY interested in your unbiased analysis of the NYG v CIN game before I pull the trigger.

And since last week went so well, I've decided to throw another parlay out.
TEN-5 NE-13.5 BUF-9.5 DEN-5 CLEev GB+3 $20 = $978.08

A little FAV heavy. Oh well.

 

[midman2161]

Looks even better with AP not 100 percent

 

[sds23]

Looks even better with AP not 100 percent

This is not the only factor that I am banking on, but it certainly is something that will help the cause. The latest informatiion on Peterson's health is that he will be a game time decision. I've seen conflicting reports on whether he is officially listed as "probable" or "questionable".

Peterson told the media that he will play, but also admitted that he first needs to "convince the trainers" that he's not risking a longer recovery time in exchange for the chance to rest. Childress is reserving the right to decide before game time and spoke to the media about "lineup changes" that can "yield an atmosphere of rallying around a player" in reference to the change at QB and uncertainty around his RB's game status.

 

[sds23]

Living in NC, I'm forced to watch all Panther games and even though they are 2-0 against two good teams, I haven't been that impressed with their performance. That being said, MIN seems to be in a bit of trouble with their QB situation, Carolina plays better on the road and Steve Smith is coming back. Looks like a solid play, GL!

Thanks AJ!

 

[sds23]

And since last week went so well, I've decided to throw another parlay out.
TEN-5 NE-13.5 BUF-9.5 DEN-5 CLEev GB+3 $20 = $978.08

A little FAV heavy. Oh well.

Looks like another solid parlay. The only part that I questioned at first glance was CLE, but then again they certainly have the potential to finally wake up a bit and Jamal Lewis (if fully healthy) will run really hard and with a chip on his shoulder versus his former team. I like your parlay. BOL AJ!!

 

[sds23]

Due to circumstances beyond my control (system says so), I'm considering a large play on NYG if the line stays at -13.5 or better.

The league is:
21-7 ats off a 20+ win and at home since 2007

27-3 ats as a home fav between -6.5 and -13.5 the week before a bye since 2002

I love both of these systems and this is a rare time when one team falls into both categories. Would be VERY interested in your unbiased analysis of the NYG v CIN game before I pull the trigger.

I like the bet all by itself from a statistical and situational perspective. And those trends would be pretty hard to ignore even if the game didn't pass the initial sniff test. So add them both together and it looks solid.

My only concern about this game is the fact that the score could potentially be a bit lower than some may expect. NYG has a HUGE advantage rushing the ball and will likely come close to gaining 200 yards on the ground in this game. If they get a lead and are as dominant as I think they will be running the ball, NYG could make you sweat this one out by taking the air out of the ball early on.

I'll take a guess that the score could be something like NYG 27, CIN 13.

 

[sds23]

2* CAR +3.5 110

Adding:

2* GB OV 51 110
2* SD OV 44 107




There's a few spreads that I like and will likely add, but I am waiting since they appear to be moving in the right direction.

 

[ajreeb]

I like the bet all by itself from a statistical and situational perspective. And those trends would be pretty hard to ignore even if the game didn't pass the initial sniff test. So add them both together and it looks solid.

My only concern about this game is the fact that the score could potentially be a bit lower than some may expect. NYG has a HUGE advantage rushing the ball and will likely come close to gaining 200 yards on the ground in this game. If they get a lead and are as dominant as I think they will be running the ball, NYG could make you sweat this one out by taking the air out of the ball early on.

I'll take a guess that the score could be something like NYG 27, CIN 13.

I'll take that score, I ended up locking it in last night with my local at NYG-13 -105. Seemed like I was getting a 1/2 point compared to most sites' line, and the reduced juice was nice as well.

Probably should have done my homework a little better on this one. I was under the impression that it was going to be a pass-happy shootout with Eli and Carson, with a big edge to Eli (in my opinion). But from what I've read this morning (including yours above), a lot of people are leaning toward the under with much emphasis on the running game. I didn't know Cin had a running game? Oh well, sometimes I get too caught up in systems and ignore the facts (unless they back my play). That being said, I'm still comfortable with it. Now, ask me again at the start of the 4th quarter... :drink:

BOL with GB and SD overs! Both good looking plays. Depending on early game results, I may be tailing you.

 

[Primož]

With ou on GB over:toast:

 

[sds23]

I'll take that score, I ended up locking it in last night with my local at NYG-13 -105. Seemed like I was getting a 1/2 point compared to most sites' line, and the reduced juice was nice as well.

Probably should have done my homework a little better on this one. I was under the impression that it was going to be a pass-happy shootout with Eli and Carson, with a big edge to Eli (in my opinion). But from what I've read this morning (including yours above), a lot of people are leaning toward the under with much emphasis on the running game. I didn't know Cin had a running game? Oh well, sometimes I get too caught up in systems and ignore the facts (unless they back my play). That being said, I'm still comfortable with it. Now, ask me again at the start of the 4th quarter... :drink:

BOL with GB and SD overs! Both good looking plays. Depending on early game results, I may be tailing you.

Nice score on the number and juice AJ. The emphasis on the run will be all NYG (not so much CIN) as long as everything goes according to plan and they get up early. (Famous last words, huh? LOL). But if CIN surprises us and gets into some sort of offensive flow, then you are right about the passing. But if my read on this game is correct then NYG should claim control of this game early and will pound the rock. Looks like a solid wager to me and I will be rooting for you on this one.

 

[sds23]

With ou on GB over:toast:

Glad to hear it Primoz. Lets get this one buddy! BOL with all your action my friend.

 

[ajreeb]

Nice score on the number and juice AJ. The emphasis on the run will be all NYG (not so much CIN) as long as everything goes according to plan and they get up early. (Famous last words, huh? LOL). But if CIN surprises us and gets into some sort of offensive flow, then you are right about the passing. But if my read on this game is correct then NYG should claim control of this game early and will pound the rock. Looks like a solid wager to me and I will be rooting for you on this one.

Thanks, bud. This will be the first game I've sweated out in awhile.

Considering small plays on TEN-5.5 and CHI-3 as well. Getting a little value from a couple computer models, as well as the Sagarin system on those. We'll see. All chalk this weekend for me, I guess.

BOL with your plays this week. I'll be rooting for them too!

 

[sds23]

Thanks, bud. This will be the first game I've sweated out in awhile.

Considering small plays on TEN-5.5 and CHI-3 as well. Getting a little value from a couple computer models, as well as the Sagarin system on those. We'll see. All chalk this weekend for me, I guess.

BOL with your plays this week. I'll be rooting for them too!

I like those plays as well. As a matter of fact, I may be adding one or both to my card here shortly......

BOL today AJ!!

 

[sds23]

Week 3 Plays

2* CAR +3.5 110
2* CHI -3 120
2* GB OV 51 110
2* SD OV 44 107
1* TEN -4.5 110
1* IND -4 110






Season Record: 12~4......+14.50 units

--------------------------------

Play Ratings Record

3*...............1~0
2*...............6~1
1*...............5~3
-------------------
ALL.............12~4<!-- / message -->

 

[Primož]

With you on CHI and TENN:toast:

 

[CarolinaKid]

BOL today with your action.(ck)

 

[ajreeb]

Week 3 Plays

2* CAR +3.5 110
2* CHI -3 120
2* GB OV 51 110
2* SD OV 44 107
1* TEN -4.5 110
1* IND -4 110

Good looking card! Take 'em to the bank again this week!

 

[sds23]

With you on CHI and TENN:toast:

BOL Primoz. Let's get a few of these buddy!!

 

[sds23]

BOL today with your action.(ck)

Thanks CK ~ BOL with all your action today. Nail 'em my friend!