NFL Week 2

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

YTD 1-1, + 2.33 units.

Start it off with a tease of Green Bay -2 with whatever you like. Green Bay is a great tease this week. I will tease with four other teams. For simplicity sake all plays are for one unit. In real life I will be betting about 1/2 unit on each play. I am very comfortable with Green Bay, the other sides I like but not near as much as the Packers. Other plays will come later in the week.

Green Bay - 2, Cowboys + 3
Green Bay - 2, Saints - .5
Green Bay - 2, Ravens + 3.5
Green Bay - 2, Eagles + 4

 

You should toss in the Colts with the Packers. I love the Colts at +8.

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Colts aren't bad Omaha. I probably have enough on the GB tease for now. The best way to play the Colts is probably on action points. They handled Tennessee easily both times last year.

 

[ESQAJM]

MFG: I couldn't tell from your points whether you were playing 6.5 or 7 point teasers. But that doesn't matter.

I play a lot of teasers and one thing I have learned is that it doesn't pay to take a team with the points and end up +3 like you did on the Dallas game. The reasons are:
1. If the point spread is low (3, 3.5 or 4) it's is expected to be a close game. Thus if your team wins there is a good chance that you will not lose your bet. (You will only lose if your team wins by 1 or 2 if they are a 3 point favorite.)So why not bet them straight up if you like them?

2. If the opponent wins (which is a high possibility in a 3 point game), how much will the 3 points actually help you? You will only win your bet if the opponent wins by 1 or 2 points. (not likely). So the question is; How much is the 6 or 7 points that you are getting actually helping you? In my opinion, not much.

One other point. I always play 6 point teasers because there is no juice. My theories that I listed above apply even more to a 6 point teaser, because it will bring a -3 favorite to a +3 in the teaser.
ESQAJM

 

[ionix]

I never tease past 0 either way.

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

ESQAJM and IONIX - All my teasers unless otherwise posted will be for 7 points laying 110. All ties are wins. If you are only playing 6 point teasers you are missing out on some key numbers. Your strategies on teasers is very well respected here. I agree with your points. I agree on the numbers going from 3 to 3 aren't nearly as valuable as lets say GB from -9 to -2. I don't like teasing them much either.
I just like Green Bay as I said and the others are fillers. I took Green Bay with the four teams I most expect to win their games. I like all 4 teams I took opposite GB to win their games, but don't like the value in the Money lines on them. If any of these four teams don't impress me in the first half or if I have a change of thought I will probably hedge them at halftime if the Green Bay looks promising.
I agree 100% on the value of getting a + 3 is nothing like a -2 or + 10. The one good thing for me is a + 3 is like getting + 3.5 with ties being winners. Also being a halftime bettor, I could have options to hedge at Halftime.

Thanks for your input. Best of luck this weekend. Bye the way what are you guys playing this weekend?

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

On a record keeping note: I at times play action points. I will usually post, for ease of record keeping, 1 unit per action point, and a cap from 5-20 on sides and up to 50 on totals. I would be a fool to play action points for a risk amount of 20 times my likely 1 unit play here on non action point bets. If you want to get an equal number on action points at one unit per point you would have to multiply my straight bets by 20. Hence, a one unit play on a non action point play would be like a 20 unit play. So, for all intensive purposes you could say all units on non action point plays = 20 units. Or just say all my plays are for 20 units.
This has never been an issue to anyone but a retard named Raiders at Peeps. So to keep it more clear to the fraud I want to bring this to light.
So from now on each 1 unit bet on non action point bets will equal 20 units.

 

[hansenbros.]

mfg,

i LOVED the pack on mon nite (was a little too gun shy to post it) -- it was a perfect mental set-up for a very confident pack team. off and def they seemed aat an almost peak performance. now, throw in the malcontent prima donna mckenzie could F---up a good thing -- there is still a lot of bad blood there??? i don't know food for thought. chi off and grossman are flat out horrible, but their def is just good enuff to be dangerous. i don't know....
.... just my thoughts.

gl

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Hey Hansen. This would be a great spot for Chicago if they had a better team. The Pack have beat the Bears 6 straight and hopefully the mismatch on talent will be able to get them this one. One thing you get with Farve is the most schitzofrenic player in the league. The guy is a chance taker and it can backfire at times. You will notice that 3 of the other sides of my teaser has teams that lost last week, one has two losers playing, and one has two winners from last week playing. I feel the Pack can get me some money this week.

 

[ESQAJM]

MFG: I never bet 7 point teasers, only 6 because I want to save the juice. I didn't know that a tie and a win is a winner. If you have a $100 teaser,do you mean you get paid $100 if you have a tie and a win?

I looked up my books rules. First a 7 point teaser is 120/100 and second it said that if there is a tie, they eliminate that team and the teaser gets reduced to the next lower number of teams teaser But being I only play 2 team teasers, a tie is a push. If you have a book that pays off on a tie then that makes the +3 much more valuable and I am wrong in my above comments.

One question: What are action points? I've heard the term but never knew what they were.

For this weekend I am going with your GB pick in 2 six point teasers. I'm tieing GB up with Indy +7.5 and NE -2. Notice how I just get past 2 key numbers. That is my main guiding principal when I play a teaser.

Otherwise it looks like a tough card and I don't have any particular preferences. I'll probably go straight down the line with Hansen's picks and move it up a unit if you pick the same game as Hansen.
ESQAJM

 

[Oren1]

Packers -2 obviously looks very strong. Good luck on the rest of the plays, hopefully you hit 3/4

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

ESQAJM - Your hurting yourself by not playing teasers at abcislands.com. Yes, ties are wins on two teamers. Your book is costing you. I would be foolish to to play 7 pointers at -130 with ties not being a winner - that's when teasers are dumb bets. You don't have to explain the key numbers to me. I have key numbers crossed as the number one criteria in a teaser as well. Your teasers look fine, just make the switch to ABC and you won't turn back.
Action Points: For example lets say I bet the Colts at a Pickem. I put a cap at 20 points and bet "to win" 1 unit per point. For every point the Colts cover the spread by I win 1 unit, for every point they don't cover the spread by I lose 1.1 units(10% juice like a straight bet). So if the Colts win by 5 I win 5 units, if the Colts lost by 7 I would lose 7.7 units. Max win at a 20 point cap would be 20 units if the Colts won by 20 or more, max lose 22 units if Colts lost by 20 or more. I hope this helps, good luck.
Bye the way I wasn't planning on playing either of the two Hansen was on. I will be passing on both of those games. But you never know at halftime I could play something on one of them.
Oren - 3 of 4 would be nice. I'll take it.

 

[Holysmoke+]

MFG, what about teasing 7 points GB -2 and the under 48, bad bet?

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Holysmoke - I hardly ever tease a total. I also hardly ever play totals unless it's a halftime bet. There is a lot more value teasing sides in the NFL with the parity that is upon us. Lots of tight games.

Heads up : I will be adding KC on a teaser.

Not sure what with at this point. But I like KC to handle up on thier business tomorrow.

 

[Oak3]

I totally agree with you on not using totals in teasers. I NEVER use em. I must check into setting up an account at ABC, if only for teasers. I love Pinny (low juice)and Oly (props)but sounds like ABC is tops in teasers.

 

[Kodiak7]

good luck mfg

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Add these:

KC pick, Wash + 4
KC pick, Rams + 8

 

MFG,

I feel your pain. I had some decent cash on KC and GBay in several teasers. Gonna have to win all my other teasers just to make up for those two slouches. You will get it back soon.

 

[IDENTITY]

mfg - keep ur chin up. i am gonna have a nice sized play tonight that you might want to coattail on

good luck the rest of the afternoon.

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Thanks for the wishing me good luck Kody. I needed more than a little of that today.

Thanks ID and Omaha. Sometimes butt kickings are in order. Green fumbling on the two and the Bears running it back for the TD hurt. Like I said previously Farve is a schitzo and he took me down today.
Id - I hope you come through with the big winner tonight.