NFL week 2…..YTD 4-1 in the super contest so far
This weeks theme is home dogs (& 1 Fav) who are under appreciated.
1.
Minny +3 Each year a team rises up out of nowhere and gets in the Playoffs, maybe I should have listen to my buddy last week. Minnesota looked pretty solid on offense (against what a good D from LY) as Cassells managed the Norv Turner offense well. They also had a bend but don’t break defense that most great teams employ. What surprised me was how well Miami ran the ball in the second half if Minnesota does the same thing with AP they should stay close if not win. Here’s a nice trend for you NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS away off 1 or more straight overs over the L2 seasons.
2.
San Diego +5’ – Seattle is getting all the love after knocking down the supposedly competitive Gbay packers (curious to see if the PACK dominate the JETS or just get bye). Nobody wants to back the Chargers after their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] q melt down vs Arizona. But these two west coast rivals know each other well as they always play in the PRE. Look for another feisty game from Rivers, who should have some success against the thin Seattle Defense. A late 4th Quarter Drive could let the Chargers in the back down to keep the game within one score.
3.
Buffalo +1 – Miami looked impressive steam rolling the Pats in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of their season opener, but the Buffalo was more impressive rushing for 193 yards and recording a +2 in TO’s. I like the Bills to continue this M.O. this week as this is who they were last year too. If you run the ball better and win the TO battle at home you usually come away with a W. How about them Bills 2-0 leading the AFC east.
4.
Cinncy –5.5 - Impressive come from behind win for ATL and yes I had them on my sheet – but keep in mind they did give up 475 yards and the reason they won was all of a sudden the defense in NO forgot how to tackle, being +1 in TO’s helped as the saints had a crucial fumble in OT giving away the game. What would be your opinion of the Falcons today had they lost in OT last week? Now they have another High powered offense to face OTR. The Bengals defense did give up a few yards themselves but they did not break allowing only 1 TD vs 3 FG’s I expect that defense to be better at home this week. I should also mention the public is backing the Falcons but the line has moved up 2 points since opening at -3 in the spring.
5.
Oakland +3 – If you look at the box score you will see that the Redskins dominated that game last week they just could not score. Houston allowed a rushing avg of 5.7 yrds/carry and 78% completion percentage, but all you saw on the highlights was JJ Watt running around like maniac. Now Oakland is not a good team but they should win 3 or 4 games this year and this is one of them. Derek Carr was okay 62% pass completion and no TO against a top 5 defense in the JETS. Hopefully the raiders can get the ground game and play mistake free again.
6. SUICIDE PICK: CHICAGO BEARS – I am in 2 LOSER Pools so each week I have to pick a team to Lose.
Every pregame key show talking head says “win the turnover Battle” & win the game. Stating this every week is blinding glimpse of the obvious, TO differtential is one of the top 5 stats I look at each week. San Fran was +4 and the Bears were -2, the SF defense is fast and hits hard, welcome to the NFC west Chicago I expect SF to win the TO battle. San Francisco also has a huge edge in rushing stats yeah it’s only week one but SF played OTR and Chic was at home. I expect SF to grab the lead and then hold the lead late in the game with a dominate rushing attack. The -7 looks about right so no play ATS. Oh yeah – Opening night for new Levi Stadium – given how the turf has been maybe it should be nicknamed the “Jean Patch”.
This weeks theme is home dogs (& 1 Fav) who are under appreciated.
1.
Minny +3 Each year a team rises up out of nowhere and gets in the Playoffs, maybe I should have listen to my buddy last week. Minnesota looked pretty solid on offense (against what a good D from LY) as Cassells managed the Norv Turner offense well. They also had a bend but don’t break defense that most great teams employ. What surprised me was how well Miami ran the ball in the second half if Minnesota does the same thing with AP they should stay close if not win. Here’s a nice trend for you NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS away off 1 or more straight overs over the L2 seasons.
2.
San Diego +5’ – Seattle is getting all the love after knocking down the supposedly competitive Gbay packers (curious to see if the PACK dominate the JETS or just get bye). Nobody wants to back the Chargers after their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] q melt down vs Arizona. But these two west coast rivals know each other well as they always play in the PRE. Look for another feisty game from Rivers, who should have some success against the thin Seattle Defense. A late 4th Quarter Drive could let the Chargers in the back down to keep the game within one score.
3.
Buffalo +1 – Miami looked impressive steam rolling the Pats in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of their season opener, but the Buffalo was more impressive rushing for 193 yards and recording a +2 in TO’s. I like the Bills to continue this M.O. this week as this is who they were last year too. If you run the ball better and win the TO battle at home you usually come away with a W. How about them Bills 2-0 leading the AFC east.
4.
Cinncy –5.5 - Impressive come from behind win for ATL and yes I had them on my sheet – but keep in mind they did give up 475 yards and the reason they won was all of a sudden the defense in NO forgot how to tackle, being +1 in TO’s helped as the saints had a crucial fumble in OT giving away the game. What would be your opinion of the Falcons today had they lost in OT last week? Now they have another High powered offense to face OTR. The Bengals defense did give up a few yards themselves but they did not break allowing only 1 TD vs 3 FG’s I expect that defense to be better at home this week. I should also mention the public is backing the Falcons but the line has moved up 2 points since opening at -3 in the spring.
5.
Oakland +3 – If you look at the box score you will see that the Redskins dominated that game last week they just could not score. Houston allowed a rushing avg of 5.7 yrds/carry and 78% completion percentage, but all you saw on the highlights was JJ Watt running around like maniac. Now Oakland is not a good team but they should win 3 or 4 games this year and this is one of them. Derek Carr was okay 62% pass completion and no TO against a top 5 defense in the JETS. Hopefully the raiders can get the ground game and play mistake free again.
6. SUICIDE PICK: CHICAGO BEARS – I am in 2 LOSER Pools so each week I have to pick a team to Lose.
Every pregame key show talking head says “win the turnover Battle” & win the game. Stating this every week is blinding glimpse of the obvious, TO differtential is one of the top 5 stats I look at each week. San Fran was +4 and the Bears were -2, the SF defense is fast and hits hard, welcome to the NFC west Chicago I expect SF to win the TO battle. San Francisco also has a huge edge in rushing stats yeah it’s only week one but SF played OTR and Chic was at home. I expect SF to grab the lead and then hold the lead late in the game with a dominate rushing attack. The -7 looks about right so no play ATS. Oh yeah – Opening night for new Levi Stadium – given how the turf has been maybe it should be nicknamed the “Jean Patch”.
