Sides
Panthers @ Falcons
Play: Panthers +6.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The Panthers have always been a much more dangerous team when sentiment has written them off. Right now, they might be at a three year low as far as expectations, as Delhomme’s last two games gives the appearance this team will never win again. However, I think sentiment is jumping the gun on this one, and the Panthers are a very dangerous team to play against Sunday. A lot of talk has been made that Delhomme is done. I think these pundits are exaggerating. The Panthers have an ideal spot to get their offense back on track, as they face a sub par defense whose main struggles come with being unable to stop the run. Delhomme has always been a quarterback whose success is highly dependent on the ground game. This bodes well for the Panthers chances, as Williams and the Panthers offensive lines advantage over the Falcons front should be successful enough to take the needed pressure off of Delhomme and allow him to work within his means. The Falcons pass defense is also nothing to write home about and something Delhomme is familiar with.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
> </o>
I said at the beginning of the season that the Falcons are not that good of a team, and I am sticking by it. Even with four turnovers, the Falcons offense struggled putting up points against one of the worst defenses in football. Things will be much harder for them this week, as they now have to face one of the best. Before seasons start, I claimed Turner was prone to a letdown year. Week one, he showed signs of such. Expect the Panthers to also be able to tame him, putting the pressure on Ryan to make things happen against a solid pass rush and secondary.
<o> </o>
I am showing fundamentally that home field advantage is worth <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:metricconverter ProductID="2.2 in">2.2 in</st1:metricconverter> this game. Add the intangible that I think the Panthers are better off playing on the road well Delhomme may actually feel less pressure, and I think home field advantage is being over quantified in this game. My model shows that the Panthers have a good chance to upset the Falcons.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Cardinals @ Jaguars
Play: Jaguars -3
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The Cardinals are frauds and the Jaguars are underrated. No surprise that I am showing a lot of value on the Jaguars side in this one. This is a bad match up for the Cardinals. The heat, humidity and smash mouth style should give fits to a dome team accustomed flying across the country that is used to playing the finesse style of the NFC West. Expect the Jaguars bruising running game to wear down the Cardinals early and set up the advantage they also have in the air. The Cardinals offense overachieved down the stretch last year. They struggled to get used to the new system last week at home against the Niners. Expect the Jaguars to devise a scheme that once again take the Cardinals offense out of their rhythm early, which may also lead to a one dimensional offense down the stretch. Boldin and Breaton will not be playing 100%. Fitzgerald will have one of the better corners in the league on him. Don’t expect an air show from the Cardinals in this game.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Texans @ Titans
Play: Titans -6.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
Last week I called the Texans and overrated team. They proved that to be the case. However, the market seems reluctant to believe so, and is not giving them many points against one of the better teams in the league. The Texans have a lot of young talent on defense, but still have not been able to figure out how to play well as a unit. Playing against an underrated systematic offense should give them problems. The Titans offensive success feeds off the run. This was why playing against the Steelers was a bad match up for them. This is also why playing against the Texans is a good match up for them, as they have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Expect both Johnson and White to pose problems for the Texans front, which will be forced to stack the box and open up the play action in which the Titans heavily depend on. The Titans should have success on offense throughout the game, eat up clock and make it hard for a backdoor cover.
The Texans offense is overrated, and looked sloppy last week. Now they face a tougher challenge on the road. Injuries to Walters and Davis should allow the Titans to better focus on Johnson. Aside from last game against the Titans, Finnegan has matched up well against Johnson and should have more help in this game than games past. The well balanced defensive attack on the Titans should make it difficult on a Texans offense that will probably peak later in the season.
<o> </o>
The Titans have given the Texans problems in the past, winning 7 of their last 8. There are too many fundamental advantages in this one favoring the Titans to make me think the tide will turn.
<o> </o>
<o></o>
Rams @ Redskins
Play: Rams +10
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The Rams sure made me look bad losing a large play on them last week with relative ease. However, I still think now is a good time to back them, as the already bearish sentiment on this team has increased after their bad performance in <st1:City><st1lace>Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>. The Redskins are not a good team to back as a large favorite, as they are not a team built to blow out the opposition. Their sub par offense that is run dependent eats up clock, grinds out yards and sits on leads. The Rams defense is underrated and should probably hold their own
<o> </o>
The Rams offense struggled last week. However, they did not give the ball enough to <st1:City><st1lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City>. Expect him to be more of a focal point now that he gets to face a slightly worse run defense than he did in <st1:City><st1lace>Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>. The Rams offense struggled a lot due to 8 offensive penalties, a facet that typically creates value as it is not terribly predictive, as it describes what occurred and not what will occur.
<o> </o>
With the Redskins offense not built to score a lot of points, they will struggle to blow out their opponent. Expect the Rams to keep this close. So close in fact that an huge upset would not surprise me much.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Saints @ Eagles
Play: Eagles +1
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
I have a feeling that the Saints are going to be a consistently overvalued team during the first half of the season, as they is so much focus on how good their offense is, that their defense is typically ignored. Now that the go from facing the Lions to a team where their high profiled quarterback will be out (most likely) for this game, and once again the market sees no reason to fear that their defense is a liability.
<o> </o>
With this being Kolb’s first career start, ideally the Eagles will want to take the pressure off of him and establish a running game. The Eagles running game is underrated as it is not often used. The Saints run defense is one of the worst in football, and even with a stacked box will have trouble stopping Westbrook and McCoy. Last week the Saints allowed a rookie quarterback having to play on the road and from behind from wire to wire to move the ball effectively on the road. Despite everyone saying Kolb will struggle, I am not biting.
<o> </o>
The Saints offense is great. No denying that. But even great offenses can be overrated, and that is the case with the Saints. They are a bully offense that can struggle outside of their dome and against solid defenses. Sunday they are forced to play in a hostile stadium against one of the better defenses in the league. The Saints still lack a dependable running game, and will probably be forced into a one dimensional role. The Eagles are very good against one dimensional offenses, and the Saints left side line is vulnerable here.
<o> </o>
Seahawks @ Niners
Play: Seahawks +1
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
There are a lot of buyers on the Niners after coming off a huge road upset against the defending NFC champs. Whenever there is an inflow of buyers on a mediocre team, I am looking to be a seller. Lets not get too excited about the Niners. Their offense is well below average and lacks any explosiveness. Teams are stacking the box, taking out the run game and forcing Hill to beat them with his arm. He has yet to prove capable of doing so. Expect the Seahawks to implement the same strategy as the Cardinals and put the game on Hill. The Seahawks pass defense is solid, and their ability to pressure the quarterback last year found the most success against the Niners line. I am expecting the Niners to once again struggle on offense.
<o> </o>
The Niners offense overachieved last week and was helped out by a rusty offense. The Seahawks looked much more game ready than the Cardinals last week. The Seahawks running game was dominant in the second half as they gained confidence with their new blocking scheme. Expect them once again to find success on the ground. The Niners gave the Cardinals problems when passing as their solid corner tandem matched up well against a pass offense heavily dependent on their one and two receiver. This is not the case with the Seahawks, who could spread the ball around better than most. The Seahawks should put up enough points on the board that will make an anemic Niners offense to get out of their element.
<o> </o>
Bucs @ Bills
Play: Bucs +4.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
All eyes were on the Bills Monday night as they were on the brink of pulling off a huge upset. All week, comments have been made that the Bills are a dangerous team that can now squeak into the playoffs. Lets not go overboard, as this team is 2-<st1:metricconverter ProductID="11 in">11 in</st1:metricconverter> their last 13 games, and in my opinion, are still a cellar team. The Bucs are also a cellar team, but the sentiment is bad on this team. They kept the game last week closer than the score would indicate, and were sloppy throughout the game. Expect them to get better off their first game, as they now have one game under their belt with a new coach, new systems, and a new quarterback. The Bills are also prone to a letdown spot after the loss they have to overcome on short rest.
<o> </o>
The Bills offense moved the ball much better than sustainable last week. Although the Bucs no longer have a potent defense and struggled especially in the past, I still feel that their pass defense holds the biggest fundamental edge in this game. The Bucs secondary got beat on pump fakes, blown coverage’s, and Barber played horrific- all facets that lack sustainability. The Bills lack the passing game the Cowboys do. Expect a much better effort, which should keep the Bucs in this game and not force them to abandon the running game early like they had to last week.
<o> </o>
Ravens @ Chargers
Play: Chargers -3
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
In my opinion, this may be the last time the market allows you to back the Chargers without paying a premium, as they left a lot to be desired on Monday against one of the worst teams in football. In my opinion, the Chargers are the best team in football, but the market is claiming otherwise, as they sent the line off of its intra week high of <st1:time Hour="14" Minute="55">-5 to -3</st1:time> plus payout. Let’s also not forget that the Ravens did not look terribly impressive last week against the Chiefs as well. Despite putting up over <st1:metricconverter ProductID="500 yards">500 yards</st1:metricconverter> last week, I am bearish on the Ravens offense, and feel they will be overmatched against the Chargers defense. Flacco has struggled against 3-4’s last year, and now is being backed by a young offensive line that lacks cohesiveness. The Chargers have the ability to take advantage and pressure Flacco, while the Ravens may have trouble countering with the run game, as the Chargers have the advantage stopping that as well.
<o> </o>
The Ravens defense is once again a top 3 unit in football. However, they did not look terribly in sync in week 1 and may be not as effective with their new coordinator. The Chargers have the best offense in football and will make it hard for any defense to shut them down. The absence of Tomlinson in my opinion is a value creator, as the market has overcompensated for his absence.
<o> </o>
Totals
Bucs @ Bills
Play: Under 42
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
It looks like oddsmakers are really getting carried away with the Bills offensive showing last week and the effect the no huddle will have on the pace of the game. Although it ups the pace, the Bills still have shown the propensity of bringing the game clock down prior to hiking the ball. I think the Bills offense overachieved last week and the Bucs defense underachieved. The Bills still need to get accustomed to this new style and will not be void of games in which they look completely out of sync. Playing on short rest may be the stimuli to make this one of these games. The Bills best chance of finding success in this game will be via the run. However, they lack the dominant running game for this faced to jeopardize the Under, and lack the red zone threat to finish off drives (yes, I know they have Owens on the team).
<o> </o>
The Bucs have some offensive weapons, but the weapons are Under friendly. Last week they were forced to abandon the run early. This week they will try everything to allow their running game to be an integral part of the game wire to wire. Last week they struggled with the up tempo pace the Cowboys turned the game into. They know the Bills will try to utilize the same pace. Expect them to slow it down. The Bills defense is simply not good enough to prevent this facet from succeeding.
<o> </o>
Patriots @ Jets
Play: Under 46
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
It looks like the Over inflation on the Patriots and Brady is alive and well once again this year. They had no business going Over the total last week, and should once again have trouble doing such this week. Their offense looked a bit out of sync last week, and is probably a month or two away from peaking. The Jets defense is one of the most underrated units in football, and Jenkins being able to play should be a big boost for this team. Last week the Jets defense gave fits to a finesse pass happy offense. They will once again get to face a similar style. Expect the Patriots to once again be more committed to the running game.
<o> </o>
The market expectations on Sanchez may be going overboard now. Lets keep in mind this unit is still a work in progress and still one of the weaker offenses in the league. Belichick has always given problems for rookie quarterbacks. The Jets are well aware of this. Expect the Jets to be heavily committed to the ground game to allow Sanchez to be in a more simplistic role. They will also keep things simple, slow things down, and turn this into a slugfest. The total is not built for such.
<o> </o>
Browns @ Broncos
Play: Over 39
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
Can sentiment on the Broncos offense go any lower than it is right now? How about the Browns offense? Based on the market bid up off the intra week low of 37, it appears there is still some downward mobility in weeks to come, but still low enough to go the other way on the overly bearish sentiment.
<o> </o>
Mangini does not like to the run the ball. He has the passing weapons to continue this sentiment in <st1:City><st1lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>. This week he is probably going to be really prone to pass the ball and turn this into a shootout, as the Broncos have one of the worst pass defenses in football, he is in dire need to boost Quinn’s confidence, and is well aware that Orton and the Broncos passing game is not built for this style of game. Expect him to be successful to a point. The Browns defense is also sub par and can be taken advantage of. They are prone to allowing the big play, especially on the ground, which is the Broncos bread and butter.
Panthers @ Falcons
Play: Panthers +6.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The Panthers have always been a much more dangerous team when sentiment has written them off. Right now, they might be at a three year low as far as expectations, as Delhomme’s last two games gives the appearance this team will never win again. However, I think sentiment is jumping the gun on this one, and the Panthers are a very dangerous team to play against Sunday. A lot of talk has been made that Delhomme is done. I think these pundits are exaggerating. The Panthers have an ideal spot to get their offense back on track, as they face a sub par defense whose main struggles come with being unable to stop the run. Delhomme has always been a quarterback whose success is highly dependent on the ground game. This bodes well for the Panthers chances, as Williams and the Panthers offensive lines advantage over the Falcons front should be successful enough to take the needed pressure off of Delhomme and allow him to work within his means. The Falcons pass defense is also nothing to write home about and something Delhomme is familiar with.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>I said at the beginning of the season that the Falcons are not that good of a team, and I am sticking by it. Even with four turnovers, the Falcons offense struggled putting up points against one of the worst defenses in football. Things will be much harder for them this week, as they now have to face one of the best. Before seasons start, I claimed Turner was prone to a letdown year. Week one, he showed signs of such. Expect the Panthers to also be able to tame him, putting the pressure on Ryan to make things happen against a solid pass rush and secondary.
<o
> </o>I am showing fundamentally that home field advantage is worth <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:metricconverter ProductID="2.2 in">2.2 in</st1:metricconverter> this game. Add the intangible that I think the Panthers are better off playing on the road well Delhomme may actually feel less pressure, and I think home field advantage is being over quantified in this game. My model shows that the Panthers have a good chance to upset the Falcons.<o
> </o><o
> </o>Cardinals @ Jaguars
Play: Jaguars -3
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The Cardinals are frauds and the Jaguars are underrated. No surprise that I am showing a lot of value on the Jaguars side in this one. This is a bad match up for the Cardinals. The heat, humidity and smash mouth style should give fits to a dome team accustomed flying across the country that is used to playing the finesse style of the NFC West. Expect the Jaguars bruising running game to wear down the Cardinals early and set up the advantage they also have in the air. The Cardinals offense overachieved down the stretch last year. They struggled to get used to the new system last week at home against the Niners. Expect the Jaguars to devise a scheme that once again take the Cardinals offense out of their rhythm early, which may also lead to a one dimensional offense down the stretch. Boldin and Breaton will not be playing 100%. Fitzgerald will have one of the better corners in the league on him. Don’t expect an air show from the Cardinals in this game.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>Texans @ Titans
Play: Titans -6.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
Last week I called the Texans and overrated team. They proved that to be the case. However, the market seems reluctant to believe so, and is not giving them many points against one of the better teams in the league. The Texans have a lot of young talent on defense, but still have not been able to figure out how to play well as a unit. Playing against an underrated systematic offense should give them problems. The Titans offensive success feeds off the run. This was why playing against the Steelers was a bad match up for them. This is also why playing against the Texans is a good match up for them, as they have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Expect both Johnson and White to pose problems for the Texans front, which will be forced to stack the box and open up the play action in which the Titans heavily depend on. The Titans should have success on offense throughout the game, eat up clock and make it hard for a backdoor cover.
The Texans offense is overrated, and looked sloppy last week. Now they face a tougher challenge on the road. Injuries to Walters and Davis should allow the Titans to better focus on Johnson. Aside from last game against the Titans, Finnegan has matched up well against Johnson and should have more help in this game than games past. The well balanced defensive attack on the Titans should make it difficult on a Texans offense that will probably peak later in the season.
<o
> </o>The Titans have given the Texans problems in the past, winning 7 of their last 8. There are too many fundamental advantages in this one favoring the Titans to make me think the tide will turn.
<o
> </o><o
></o>Rams @ Redskins
Play: Rams +10
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The Rams sure made me look bad losing a large play on them last week with relative ease. However, I still think now is a good time to back them, as the already bearish sentiment on this team has increased after their bad performance in <st1:City><st1
lace>Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>. The Redskins are not a good team to back as a large favorite, as they are not a team built to blow out the opposition. Their sub par offense that is run dependent eats up clock, grinds out yards and sits on leads. The Rams defense is underrated and should probably hold their own<o
> </o>The Rams offense struggled last week. However, they did not give the ball enough to <st1:City><st1
lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City>. Expect him to be more of a focal point now that he gets to face a slightly worse run defense than he did in <st1:City><st1lace>Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>. The Rams offense struggled a lot due to 8 offensive penalties, a facet that typically creates value as it is not terribly predictive, as it describes what occurred and not what will occur.<o
> </o>With the Redskins offense not built to score a lot of points, they will struggle to blow out their opponent. Expect the Rams to keep this close. So close in fact that an huge upset would not surprise me much.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>Saints @ Eagles
Play: Eagles +1
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
I have a feeling that the Saints are going to be a consistently overvalued team during the first half of the season, as they is so much focus on how good their offense is, that their defense is typically ignored. Now that the go from facing the Lions to a team where their high profiled quarterback will be out (most likely) for this game, and once again the market sees no reason to fear that their defense is a liability.
<o
> </o>With this being Kolb’s first career start, ideally the Eagles will want to take the pressure off of him and establish a running game. The Eagles running game is underrated as it is not often used. The Saints run defense is one of the worst in football, and even with a stacked box will have trouble stopping Westbrook and McCoy. Last week the Saints allowed a rookie quarterback having to play on the road and from behind from wire to wire to move the ball effectively on the road. Despite everyone saying Kolb will struggle, I am not biting.
<o
> </o>The Saints offense is great. No denying that. But even great offenses can be overrated, and that is the case with the Saints. They are a bully offense that can struggle outside of their dome and against solid defenses. Sunday they are forced to play in a hostile stadium against one of the better defenses in the league. The Saints still lack a dependable running game, and will probably be forced into a one dimensional role. The Eagles are very good against one dimensional offenses, and the Saints left side line is vulnerable here.
<o
> </o>Seahawks @ Niners
Play: Seahawks +1
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
There are a lot of buyers on the Niners after coming off a huge road upset against the defending NFC champs. Whenever there is an inflow of buyers on a mediocre team, I am looking to be a seller. Lets not get too excited about the Niners. Their offense is well below average and lacks any explosiveness. Teams are stacking the box, taking out the run game and forcing Hill to beat them with his arm. He has yet to prove capable of doing so. Expect the Seahawks to implement the same strategy as the Cardinals and put the game on Hill. The Seahawks pass defense is solid, and their ability to pressure the quarterback last year found the most success against the Niners line. I am expecting the Niners to once again struggle on offense.
<o
> </o>The Niners offense overachieved last week and was helped out by a rusty offense. The Seahawks looked much more game ready than the Cardinals last week. The Seahawks running game was dominant in the second half as they gained confidence with their new blocking scheme. Expect them once again to find success on the ground. The Niners gave the Cardinals problems when passing as their solid corner tandem matched up well against a pass offense heavily dependent on their one and two receiver. This is not the case with the Seahawks, who could spread the ball around better than most. The Seahawks should put up enough points on the board that will make an anemic Niners offense to get out of their element.
<o
> </o>Bucs @ Bills
Play: Bucs +4.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
All eyes were on the Bills Monday night as they were on the brink of pulling off a huge upset. All week, comments have been made that the Bills are a dangerous team that can now squeak into the playoffs. Lets not go overboard, as this team is 2-<st1:metricconverter ProductID="11 in">11 in</st1:metricconverter> their last 13 games, and in my opinion, are still a cellar team. The Bucs are also a cellar team, but the sentiment is bad on this team. They kept the game last week closer than the score would indicate, and were sloppy throughout the game. Expect them to get better off their first game, as they now have one game under their belt with a new coach, new systems, and a new quarterback. The Bills are also prone to a letdown spot after the loss they have to overcome on short rest.
<o
> </o>The Bills offense moved the ball much better than sustainable last week. Although the Bucs no longer have a potent defense and struggled especially in the past, I still feel that their pass defense holds the biggest fundamental edge in this game. The Bucs secondary got beat on pump fakes, blown coverage’s, and Barber played horrific- all facets that lack sustainability. The Bills lack the passing game the Cowboys do. Expect a much better effort, which should keep the Bucs in this game and not force them to abandon the running game early like they had to last week.
<o
> </o>Ravens @ Chargers
Play: Chargers -3
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
In my opinion, this may be the last time the market allows you to back the Chargers without paying a premium, as they left a lot to be desired on Monday against one of the worst teams in football. In my opinion, the Chargers are the best team in football, but the market is claiming otherwise, as they sent the line off of its intra week high of <st1:time Hour="14" Minute="55">-5 to -3</st1:time> plus payout. Let’s also not forget that the Ravens did not look terribly impressive last week against the Chiefs as well. Despite putting up over <st1:metricconverter ProductID="500 yards">500 yards</st1:metricconverter> last week, I am bearish on the Ravens offense, and feel they will be overmatched against the Chargers defense. Flacco has struggled against 3-4’s last year, and now is being backed by a young offensive line that lacks cohesiveness. The Chargers have the ability to take advantage and pressure Flacco, while the Ravens may have trouble countering with the run game, as the Chargers have the advantage stopping that as well.
<o
> </o>The Ravens defense is once again a top 3 unit in football. However, they did not look terribly in sync in week 1 and may be not as effective with their new coordinator. The Chargers have the best offense in football and will make it hard for any defense to shut them down. The absence of Tomlinson in my opinion is a value creator, as the market has overcompensated for his absence.
<o
> </o>Totals
Bucs @ Bills
Play: Under 42
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
It looks like oddsmakers are really getting carried away with the Bills offensive showing last week and the effect the no huddle will have on the pace of the game. Although it ups the pace, the Bills still have shown the propensity of bringing the game clock down prior to hiking the ball. I think the Bills offense overachieved last week and the Bucs defense underachieved. The Bills still need to get accustomed to this new style and will not be void of games in which they look completely out of sync. Playing on short rest may be the stimuli to make this one of these games. The Bills best chance of finding success in this game will be via the run. However, they lack the dominant running game for this faced to jeopardize the Under, and lack the red zone threat to finish off drives (yes, I know they have Owens on the team).
<o
> </o>The Bucs have some offensive weapons, but the weapons are Under friendly. Last week they were forced to abandon the run early. This week they will try everything to allow their running game to be an integral part of the game wire to wire. Last week they struggled with the up tempo pace the Cowboys turned the game into. They know the Bills will try to utilize the same pace. Expect them to slow it down. The Bills defense is simply not good enough to prevent this facet from succeeding.
<o
> </o>Patriots @ Jets
Play: Under 46
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
It looks like the Over inflation on the Patriots and Brady is alive and well once again this year. They had no business going Over the total last week, and should once again have trouble doing such this week. Their offense looked a bit out of sync last week, and is probably a month or two away from peaking. The Jets defense is one of the most underrated units in football, and Jenkins being able to play should be a big boost for this team. Last week the Jets defense gave fits to a finesse pass happy offense. They will once again get to face a similar style. Expect the Patriots to once again be more committed to the running game.
<o
> </o>The market expectations on Sanchez may be going overboard now. Lets keep in mind this unit is still a work in progress and still one of the weaker offenses in the league. Belichick has always given problems for rookie quarterbacks. The Jets are well aware of this. Expect the Jets to be heavily committed to the ground game to allow Sanchez to be in a more simplistic role. They will also keep things simple, slow things down, and turn this into a slugfest. The total is not built for such.
<o
> </o>Browns @ Broncos
Play: Over 39
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
Can sentiment on the Broncos offense go any lower than it is right now? How about the Browns offense? Based on the market bid up off the intra week low of 37, it appears there is still some downward mobility in weeks to come, but still low enough to go the other way on the overly bearish sentiment.
<o
> </o>Mangini does not like to the run the ball. He has the passing weapons to continue this sentiment in <st1:City><st1
lace>Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>. This week he is probably going to be really prone to pass the ball and turn this into a shootout, as the Broncos have one of the worst pass defenses in football, he is in dire need to boost Quinn’s confidence, and is well aware that Orton and the Broncos passing game is not built for this style of game. Expect him to be successful to a point. The Browns defense is also sub par and can be taken advantage of. They are prone to allowing the big play, especially on the ground, which is the Broncos bread and butter. 
