NFL Week 16

[sds23]

A "failure of epic proportions" is the only way to describe what I have gone through over the L3 weeks. To put it into perspective:

My record after Week 12: 75~55......+35.85 units
My record after Week 15: 85~78........+5.40 units

Am I on TILT? Close, but not there yet. I am really embarassed though, that's for sure. But I refuse to run and hide from this season. I am either going to salvage this season or I am going down swinging to the end.

I am only capping a few key games later in the week, since my normal capping efforts are obviously not paying the bills right now. In the meantime, I plan on playing anything that looks good to me at first glance. Trusting my gut this week, capping efforts be damned. Not sure if my final card will have 4 plays or 14 plays on it, but I am not going to be bashful in Week 16.

 

[sds23]

Week 16

3* IND -6 110
3* CHI OV 42 110


I may just play everything at equal units this week (at 3*).

 

[sds23]

Adding:

3* PIT -1.5 100

 

[billbeater]

shit happens, the later weeks are a little shit shooting.... but pick your spots!

i like indy here and have found a deep love for the Steelies! :aktion033
You will always have a good chance to win with this Pitt team!

 

[ajreeb]

Good luck this week, sds. Like your plays so far. I wish I could jump on PIT-1.5 right now, that one is sure to go up by game time. The Steelers are looking solid. Tenny... Not so much, plus the well documented injuries on their defensive line and having already locked up their division. Pitt may roll in this one.

I'm also (cough) considering a play on (cough) Detriot. If the line moves over +7, their last home game, they've covered against some tough teams (IND, MINx2, CHI, CAR, HOU), NO has nothing to play for, I don't think they'll go winless - although they do finish up at GB, NO has only 1 win on the road this year and it was against KC. So call it hunch, call it ugly, don't call it the next day, but call it in! LOL!

I'm heading down to the Keys on Thursday, so I'm not sure if I'll be around this weekend, but best of luck with all your "gut" plays!

 

[iamunkn0wn]

gl to u sds23... i like pit myself


<img src="http://www.meet-safe.net/image1.jpg">
<img src="http://www.meet-safe.net/image2.jpg">

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

I am only capping a few key games later in the week, since my normal capping efforts are obviously not paying the bills right now. In the meantime, I plan on playing anything that looks good to me at first glance. Trusting my gut this week, capping efforts be damned. Not sure if my final card will have 4 plays or 14 plays on it, but I am not going to be bashful in Week 16.

%^_

Hello sds23..

Hopefully you won't mind me tossing my two cents into the ring, I just wanted to recommend that you don't get too down on yourself my friend, the ball bounces funny for ALL OF US from week to week, as you already know the goal is to win over the LONG TERM...

...any idiot can luck out and show a winning record in the short term of a few weeks but its the LONG TERM that gets those same idiots year in and year out, in the big picture Vegas wasn't built on winners but on losers.

Keep doing what you are doing and the proverbial worm will turn as it always does for those such as yourself with a proven track record...

...in my humble opinion its good to heed those "gut instincts" but those same instincts should be backed up with sound statisical data or else we as handicappers will be sinking to the level of "Joe Public".

As a side note I did the same thing last week with regard to having a few bounces go against me and especially in that Pittsburgh--Baltimore game with ANOTHER crazy call by the refs as I personally think that the replay booth did not have the so-called ''clear indisputable evidence'' needed to over turn the call on the field and rule a TD for the Steelers which in effect cost the Ravens the game....here's a link on a good article about it:

http://www.ohio.com/sports/browns/36179439.html

I also had a loser on the OVER in the Green Bay--Jacksonville game, I liked the Jags in the game and was able to back it up with sound statisical data that showed that the Jags should perform better against the Pack than they had over the previous few weeks, so what do I do?

Instead of playing the Jags straight out I wagered on the OVER thinking that I was getting a "soft total", the end result was a straight up Jag win but the total stayed UNDER the posted number, the moral of the story is that I "over-capped" the game...

...however, that doesn't mean that I am going to contemplate changing my style or methods because those same methods brought home a winner and almost a straight up winner too boot on the Bills +7.5 over the Jets.

What I am trying to say is this...DON'T CHANGE YOUR STYLE...your approach and methods is what has made you successful to date, stay the course and you will be fine!!

Take care and be well my friend

Jim

:toast:

 

[Jetplane]

keep chuggin SDS... in my contest i've gone like 3-6 or something... just a shitty time i suppose.

 

[freepicks+]

Week 16

3* IND -6 110
3* CHI OV 42 110


I may just play everything at equal units this week (at 3*).

dude, don't even trip. you'll get it back this sunday. i already took the chi over 42 for 5 units myself.

gl bro

:toast:

fp

 

[sds23]

Wow, lots of responses. I've been busy and haven't had a chance to respond for a day or so.

Jetplane ~ Thanks man. I am sorry to hear that you've encountered some of the same resistance here at the tail end of the season like I have. But I am glad to hear that I'm not the only one. Misery loves company I guess. BOL with Week 16 buddy. You'll get it turned around ASAP.

billbeater ~ Truer words have never been spoke about the craziness that generally ensues the last few weeks of every regular season. Some guys mentally have their bags packed and are already on vacation. And even the teams with something to play for sometimes surprise you when they place greater emphasis on getting healthy or staying healthy instead of improving their playoff seeding. Glad to hear you like IND and are leaning PIT. BOL this weekend!

iamunkn0wn ~ There's some odd number movement with the PIT game and a couple of other games too. I personally don't make plays or negate plays simply on movement, but some people do, so I thought I'd give you a heads up. I still think we are on the right side of this one. Initially I had a minor concern about PIT having played an extremely physical game vs BAL and are now walking into another war. But PIT will be fine. BOL!

DIRTYDOG1 ~ Excellent advice about not straying from what I've always done and keeping a big picture perspective. And that's the exact same advice that I would give to someone as well. But don't worry, I won't be suddenly wiping everything away from my brain like an etcha-sketch or sinking to the level of "Joe Public." I've inhaled enough qualitative and quantitative info this season and over the last decade that it just kind of exists in the background whether I want it to or not. But I do indeed intend to deviate this week and to go with what I like for a change. I am going to call them like I see them, and then I am going to bet them as I call them. BOL with all your Week 16 action!

 

[sds23]

Good luck this week, sds. Like your plays so far. I wish I could jump on PIT-1.5 right now, that one is sure to go up by game time. The Steelers are looking solid. Tenny... Not so much, plus the well documented injuries on their defensive line and having already locked up their division. Pitt may roll in this one.

I'm also (cough) considering a play on (cough) Detriot. If the line moves over +7, their last home game, they've covered against some tough teams (IND, MINx2, CHI, CAR, HOU), NO has nothing to play for, I don't think they'll go winless - although they do finish up at GB, NO has only 1 win on the road this year and it was against KC. So call it hunch, call it ugly, don't call it the next day, but call it in! LOL!

I'm heading down to the Keys on Thursday, so I'm not sure if I'll be around this weekend, but best of luck with all your "gut" plays!

Thanks AJ. Glad to hear you like PIT. I like your thinking on DET, but I think that there's a chance that number will sit tight at 7, so you may not get that hook. DET has to be fighting like hell to avoid the big 0~16 (especially now that the local fans are even rooting for it in an effort to force some major changes to the organization). I just hope GB is not the team to let them off of the hook if NO beats them this weekend!

Enjoy the Keys brother! I hope this trip is all play (not business) and you have a wonderful time. Grab a little bit of sun and warmth and ship it to me up here in the frozen tundra. Have a great trip and BOL with Week 16!

 

[sds23]

dude, don't even trip. you'll get it back this sunday. i already took the chi over 42 for 5 units myself.

gl bro

:toast:

fp

I love to hear that FP! But did you see that number is down to 41? I am surprised to see that. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. If it keeps dropping I will wait for the bottom and grab some more. BOL on MNF and with the rest of Week 16 my friend!

 

[lilauzzie]

hey guys,
im new hear, as u can tell, im from Australia
im doin pretty good on the nfl as of late and heres what i got this week
im gonna put 1/4 of my betting money on PIT -1.5
and another 1.4 on Jacksonville with +6.5 hoping it goes up to 7
what do u guys think??
p.s
in regards to

I'm also (cough) considering a play on (cough) Detriot. If the line moves over +7, their last home game, they've covered against some tough teams (IND, MINx2, CHI, CAR, HOU), NO has nothing to play for, I don't think they'll go winless - although they do finish up at GB, NO has only 1 win on the road this year and it was against KC. So call it hunch, call it ugly, don't call it the next day, but call it in! LOL!
!

i might be looking at that :aktion033

 

[sds23]

Week 16

3* IND -6 110

It's always a relief to start the week off on a positive note.

Week 16: 1~0......+3.00 units

 

[I_Need_Money]

Nice SD. Keep trucking bro.

 

[sds23]

Nice SD. Keep trucking bro.

Thanks INM. The ol' truck has been in the ditch a few times over the last few weeks, but I'm hoping to get back into the fast lane this weekend. BOL with all of your Week 16 action brother!

 

[sds23]

Adding:

3* DAL -5 115
2* NYG -3 125
2* NYG OV 37 110

 

[sds23]

Week 16

3* IND -6 110 WINNER
3* CHI OV 42 110
3* PIT -1.5 100
3* DAL -5 115
2* NYG -3 125
2* NYG OV 37 110


Leans

BUF, TB, ATL

 

[sds23]

Adding two Player Prop plays:

2* Joe Flacco OV 185.5 yards passing 110
2* T. Choice OV 29.5 yards receiving +105

 

[sds23]

Adding:

2* TB -3.5 100