***** Nfl Week 16 Plays *****

[TheComputerGroup]

I will update my record after the Monday night game.........I wanted to start the week16 thread because I'm baffled on some of these spreads & wanted some opinions.


The most baffling spread is Tampa +3.5 at Saints.......Tampa & Winston are in a huge must win game & this team just covered 6str games & 5 of past 6 & gave Dallas a great game.......I'm lost, this line should be Tampa -3.5, or am I missing something besides the BS excuse of a short week & they're drained from playing great past month.......if Tampa loses this game, they're done IMO, no playoffs for them.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Another line which I took the Ravens +14.5 in a teaser is the Pitt -4.5 vs Ravens.......

We all know Ravens are 4-0 in the division & beat Pitt by 7 several weeks back, but Pitt is on fire covering & winning games like no other team in the NFL except for Tampa.

The line opened Pitt -3.5 (which it should be & climbed to -6 very quickly, & finally settled at -4.5).......here are some trends:

Ravens are 1-11 ATS when .500 or better off a non-division vs .500 or better division opponent..........Ravens are 1-8 ATS as dogs of less than 6 points off a non-conf game.........Ravens are 2-6 ATS before playing the Browns.........Ravens are 0-11 ATS vs opponent off back to back SU&ATS wins.........

Pitt is 11-0 ATS at home off division game & looking for revenge vs division.........


Pitt IMO will win this division, & I do think they win SU, but don't think they will cover 14.5......I do think they will beat the Ravens by 7 just like Balt did to them 7 weeks ago.

 

[OverThinker]

I don't think Pitt will cover the 4.5, Ravens have owned them of late and since 2011 steelers have only beaten them by more than this number once. Game is always a slugfest where points are at a premium and don't see this one being much different. Fully expect it won't be decided till the final minutes and probably by a fg..

was really surprised by Tampa line as well, think jamis the kind of guy that will bounce back strong here, he a winner and while I think this will have a much different look than the 1st meeting I think he will go toe to toe with Brees and will his team to a win they got to have.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I don't think Pitt will cover the 4.5, Ravens have owned them of late and since 2011 steelers have only beaten them by more than this number once. Game is always a slugfest where points are at a premium and don't see this one being much different. Fully expect it won't be decided till the final minutes and probably by a fg..

was really surprised by Tampa line as well, think jamis the kind of guy that will bounce back strong here, he a winner and while I think this will have a much different look than the 1st meeting I think he will go toe to toe with Brees and will his team to a win they got to have.

Man that Tampa game has me pulling my hair out & its only Monday......

 

[KAPTHAT]

ravens play cincy next,not cleveland......if memory serves me correct....these two usually play 3 or 4 point games

 

[OverThinker]

Man that Tampa game has me pulling my hair out & its only Monday......

I hear ya, I'm gonna dig more into it when I got time 2marro but it certainly a curious line. Saints hf hasn't been what it once was the last few years, there was a time I gave them little more than 3 playing in the dome but not any longer and I'd assume books don't either so this line seriously implying saints are a half point better on a nuetral? I find that really hard to believe.

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck tonight!!!!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

X-Large (33-28)
Large (39-40)
Avg. (17-16)



Complete fade material after losing all my profits & being in the red at -1,040.40 for the NFL season........


Adding Thursday night play:


Eagles ML (+125).........(X-Large)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

X-Large (33-28)
Large (39-40)
Avg. (17-16)



Complete fade material after losing all my profits & being in the red at -1,040.40 for the NFL season........


Adding Thursday night play:


Eagles ML (+125).........(X-Large)

I called up.my local.& asked to call off this bet, don't like it anymore......he allows to call off wagers on the same day, thank goodness.......

 

[OverThinker]

Don't blame you that is a crappy price to get the far inferior team.

 

[RedWhiteBlue]

Eagles ML? Really? I'm not mocking the pick I'm genuinely curious as to why you think an Eagles team that has no receivers and a qb that has regressed can beat a tough Giants team. Sure Giants are underwhelming on offense but their defense is solid and they are making enough plays on o to win games.

It's a Thursday game and home teams have been winning. Also Eli is capable of throwing the game away on any given night. That Giants -2.5 looks like a gift. Maybe too good to be true. I'll bite on it though.

 

[TomandJerry]

I will update my record after the Monday night game.........I wanted to start the week16 thread because I'm baffled on some of these spreads & wanted some opinions.


The most baffling spread is Tampa +3.5 at Saints.......Tampa & Winston are in a huge must win game & this team just covered 6str games & 5 of past 6 & gave Dallas a great game.......I'm lost, this line should be Tampa -3.5, or am I missing something besides the BS excuse of a short week & they're drained from playing great past month.......if Tampa loses this game, they're done IMO, no playoffs for them.

wrong.team.favor.imo

 

[matthewt]

I'd take Tampa +6.5 this week.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

wrong.team.favor.imo

I agree.......

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I'd take Tampa +6.5 this week.

I like Tampa as well........Winston should battle it out with Bree's.......& win SU

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Adding three 3 team teasers:


Giants +7.5, Tampa +13, Atlanta +8........(X-Large)

Bengals +11.5, Pitt +5.5, Chiefs +6.5........(X-Large)

Titans +6, Ravens +14.5, Chiefs +6.5.........(X-Large)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Another shady line is Bills -4 vs Miami.......

Miami is 9-5 & they're a dog??? I don't care who the Qb is for Miami, they should be fav by -3......this line makes no sense.

 

[dsong]

What are your projected closing lines for these games?

In general, I've found that playing off-the-board teasers work only if you're projecting line movements before the close and you get an extra cushion before the close.

 

[uscmd]

I must be missing something. When I first saw the giants/eagles line I thought it was a gift........for the giants. One team is done, one team playing to stay hot. Eagles have lost 6 of their last 8 ats, against a giants team thats won 7 out of 9. Veteran QB, with maybe the best receiver in fb, against a rookie qb, with no receivers, playing against a red hot defense.

Theres an old saying in betting.........if it looks way too easy, stop at check yourself, you may be missing something. NY has not clinched a berth, and Phil is out. NY plays at Wash next week, so thats no gimmee. NY has to bring it this week, and if they do, they cover the 2.5 thats all over the street.

We shall see. BOL to all!!! And a very happy, profitable holidays.

 

[OverThinker]

Another shady line is Bills -4 vs Miami.......

Miami is 9-5 & they're a dog??? I don't care who the Qb is for Miami, they should be fav by -3......this line makes no sense.

Very suspect especially cause Like I said last week I really don't think there much if any drop off from tannehill to Moore, Moore actually throws a better deep ball imo.. line saying bills actually better on a nuetral field? I don't buy that for a second, freaking crazy. I made it bills -2 so def see value on fish.